Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 250502
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1202 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.AVIATION...
For the ArkLaTex, a weak fropa has convection S of all terminals.
Sfc winds are NE 5KT or calm, but T/Td spreads should hold vsby.
Models showing a little QPF overnight and early Sun for KLFK/KMLU.
Otherwise, rain is about done as the outlook is for high pressure
to win out bolstering the frontal boudary to move farther S and W
for a few days. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1022 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The evening sfc analysis indicated that our true weak sfc front
extends from Cntrl MS WNW to near the I-29 corridor of N LA/E TX
to N of the DFW Metroplex crossing the Red River into far SW OK.
This matches up well with the H850 frontal position, with drier
air noted via the sfc theta-e and elevated cigs near and N of
these bndrys, with the air mass farther S having been modified
since the broad mesoscale bndry from the AR MCS Friday moving
through E TX/Ncntrl LA early this morning. Meanwhile, the upper
air analysis still depicts a weak shear axis in place across
Scntrl and Deep E TX NE into Ncntrl LA, which has helped focus sct
convection this evening over these areas. The short term progs
remain in agreement with this shear axis drifting a tad SE
overnight, with the potential for weak convergence along the
H850-700 trough to result in sct convective redevelopment
overnight over Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA. The HRRR
remains rather bullish in its development after 06Z especially
over Ncntrl LA, but better instability current resides over Deep E
TX and along the lower Toledo Bend Country of Wcntrl LA, where
SBCapes of 1000-1500 J/Kg remains in place. With the current
convection backbuilding along Wwd moving outflow bndrys across
Shelby/Nrn San Augustine/Ern Angelina Counties attm, its feasible
that an uptick in convection here given the weak mid level
convergent axis may allow for sct areas of -SHRA/-TSRA to spill E
across our Srn most N LA Parishes. However, not expecting QPF
amounts as seen the last few days given the lack of deep lyr
forcing.

For the update, did tweak sky conditions to mostly cloudy, even
across NE TX/SE OK/SW AR, as additional AC develops and spreads SE
overnight as the cirrus shield thins. Also tapered pops back a tad
along the Srn fringes of the drier air near the I-20 corridor,
resulting in a few areas having slight chance pops removed for
Sunday. Did maintain mid and high chance pops for Deep E TX/Srn
sections of Ncntrl LA given even the 00Z NAM suggesting additional
sct development after 06Z for these areas. Also made some minor
upward tweaks to min temps as well, as the increasing AC and lack
of cool/dry advection should not allow temps to cool as much as
previously advertised, especially over SE OK/Nrn sections of SW
AR. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast is in good shape.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  86  67  88 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  69  86  65  88 /  20  20  10  10
DEQ  64  87  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  66  86  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  65  86  63  87 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  70  85  68  87 /  20  20  20  20
GGG  69  86  67  88 /  20  20  10  20
LFK  73  85  70  88 /  50  40  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/15/99



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.