Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301638
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTOCUMULUS DECK IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION...
BEING REPLACED QUICKLY BY LOWER LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DECK WITH
HEIGHTS VARYING BETWEEN 25HDFT-5KFT. REALLY STARTING TO SEE
THIS CLOUD COVER GROW OUT WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS
ON THE HEELS OF RETURNING SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...EXPECT TO SEE PERIODIC CEILINGS NEAR 4-6KFT BUT
WILL PREVAIL SCT CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY.

OVERNIGHT...MODEL CROSS SECTION SUPPORT A RETURN OF AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS TO MUCH OF THE REGION...AND CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS
AT LEAST AT THE LFK TERMINAL IN THE 08-12Z TIMEFRAME. WILL NEED TO
WATCH OUT FOR LOWER VSBYS AS WELL...AGAIN MAINLY AT THE LFK TERMINAL
WHERE VSBY COULD FALL BELOW ONE MILE. 3-5SM VSBYS POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINAL LOCATIONS A COUPLE HOURS EITHER SIDE OF 12Z WED.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WED MORNING SHOULD RISE OR GIVE WAY TO SCT SKY
CONDITIONS IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING TO OVERTAKE THE REGION AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. WINDS BEGINNING TO RETURN OUT OF THE SE...AS SFC
LOW PRESSURE HAD DEVELOPED IN THE SRN PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER TROF...AND DEWPOINTS ARE RESPONDING POSITIVELY. DAYTIME
HEATING ALONG WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS BY THIS AFTN.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE SKY GRIDS AS MID-LEVEL SHIELD CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER PARTS
OF SE OK/SW AR/N LA. OTHERWISE...THE FCST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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