Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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874
FXUS64 KSHV 291150
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
650 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR ceilings possible through mid-morning across area
terminals. An upper-level trough combined with a weak surface
boundary will allow for VCTS conditions across most locations
through 30/00z. Conditions to improve to VFR during the early
evening hours. Otherwise, southwest winds 5 to 10 knots today to
become south at 5 knots or less overnight. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Northwesterly flow aloft will help to steer a convective complex
currently ongoing across Southern Kansas/Northern Oklahoma towards
the area. This complex will likely weaken before reaching the CWA.
However, latest model guidance suggests redevelopment may occur
along a remnant outflow boundary from this complex and/or a
second southward moving outflow boundary across Southeast
Oklahoma/Western Arkansas. A band of cu around 5 kft has already
developed with this second boundary. Combined with a weak upper
trough axis over the region, these boundaries should provide for
at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today
mainly across Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest/Southern Arkansas.
Rain chances will persist in these areas through tonight as
another convective complex develops over Oklahoma and another
outflow boundary is sent southeastward towards our CWA. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible across more of the area during the
day Saturday as another weak upper disturbance passes over the
region in the northwest flow aloft.

Rain chances will gradually diminish and become confined to our
Louisiana and Southern Arkansas zones beginning Sunday and
continuing into next week as a broad upper ridge builds over the
South Central U.S. Weak mid-level disturbances rotating underneath
the ridge could provide some increased chances for diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms during the middle and latter half
of next week, especially over North Central Louisiana where
moisture levels will be the greatest. As rain chances decrease in
the extended periods, temperatues will warm once again. Daytime
high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s can be expected as early
as Monday and persisting through the next work week. With the lack
of significant rainfall, I would not be surprised if some
locations in East Texas approach or exceed 100 degrees F by the
end of next week.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  76 /  30  20  40  20
MLU  92  74  93  75 /  40  20  40  20
DEQ  93  73  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
TXK  92  74  94  76 /  40  40  40  20
ELD  92  74  93  74 /  40  40  40  20
TYR  95  76  96  77 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  94  76  96  76 /  30  20  30  10
LFK  95  74  95  75 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/05/05



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