Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161621
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1121 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVECTION OVER SOUTH LA...DUE TO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM UPPER LOW OVER FOUR
CORNERS REGION...AND LCH SOUNDING PCPN WATER 1.75 TO CONTRIBUTE TO
HEAVY RAIN. CONVECTION APPEARS TO SCATTER AS IT MOVES NORTH INTO
CENTRAL LA...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE CAT BUT WILL MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL LAPSE RATES LIMIT ANY SVR POTENTIAL. POPS
TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NORTH. PERSISTENCE AND CURENT TEMP
TRENDS SUGGEST UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CWA THUS FAR THIS AM...ALTHOUGH LOW
VFR CIGS PERSISTING NEAR KMLU AND KLFK. MSTR TO STREAM NWD IN
CONTINUED DEEP S-SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW SPINNING IN FOUR CORNER
REGION OVER WESTERN STATES. CONVECTION SOUTH OF KLFK TERMINAL TO
MOVE NWD AND POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO A BAND AFFECTING CWA BTWN
16-23Z...AT LEAST AS FAR NORTH AS I-20. SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE AFTER 17/06Z...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED
IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN BEYOND THE 17/12Z TIME
FRAME./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER ACCOMPANIED BY SUNSHINE...THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BE MAKING A RETURN TODAY. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
ALREADY STREAMING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS PACIFIC MOISTURE
RAMPS UP ALONG AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET STREAM. AT
THE SFC...CALM WINDS AND SATURATED CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AREAS OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30 WHERE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE YET TO ARRIVE. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE
BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SELY WITH
TIME. COUPLED WITH THE INCREASING PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT...WARM
AND MOIST GULF AIR MASS WILL QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE REGION AND ALLOW
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL AID IN THE INCREASING
LIFT LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS LOW ACROSS
THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE BASE OF THE TROF...ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS OUR REGION BEFORE THE LOW
FINALLY OPENS UP OUT OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

THE UPPER TROF WILL THEN QUICKLY EJECT EWRD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A CANADIAN COLD FRONT TRACKING SOUTH
BEHIND THE DEPARTED UPPER TROF. THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN SOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SENDING
OUR TEMPERATURES DOWN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW MID APRIL CLIMO
FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL
COME AS EARLY AS TUESDAY WITH A MAJOR SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTH OUT
OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS TX/OK WITH INCREASING SHWRS AND TSTMS...THEN
GENERALLY REMAINING UNSETTLED THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK AS STRONG
SW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN TIER STATES
ALONG THE GULF COAST. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  64  80  65 /  30  40  50  60
MLU  80  64  79  65 /  30  40  50  60
DEQ  79  62  78  63 /  20  30  50  60
TXK  78  62  78  63 /  30  30  50  60
ELD  79  63  79  64 /  30  30  50  60
TYR  78  64  78  64 /  30  40  50  60
GGG  78  64  79  64 /  30  40  50  60
LFK  78  65  80  65 /  50  50  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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