Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 022045
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
345 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH MOSTLY CUMULUS AROUND AT A WEAK
LOW LEVEL INVERSION. ANY CIRRUS IS MOVING NE WHERE STORMS ARE
PERCULATING. FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...THE MID AND UPPER AIR HAS
BEEN SCOURED BY THE UPPER RIDGE EARLIER THAN HOPED TO OCCUR WITH
DEEPENING NE FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBSIDENT AIR HAS OUR 88D RADAR
COVERAGE AT A DISMAL 10 PERCENT WITH MOST IN S AR AND NE LA WHERE
A NEW MID LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE SHEAR AXIS. THIS LOW
APPEARS TO BE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. AND THERE IS
STILL A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SW LA...BUT IT IS BEING SHEARED APART.
THE PARENT LOW IS RETREATING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS JUST OFF
THE TX COASTAL BEND.

THE RICH TROPICAL AIR IS MOSTLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NOW
AND WILL HAVE TO FIGHT ITS WAY BACK IN UNDER THE LOOMING RIDGE.
FORTUNATELY FOR US THE RIDGE IS NOT BUILDING HEIGHTS...JUST
MOVING BACK EASTWARD AS THE EASTERN TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN A FIXTURE
CONTINUES TO ERODE. OUR HIGHS WILL CONTINUE BACK INTO THE MID AND
SOME UPPER 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY AS THE SOIL TEMPERATURE CONTINUES
TO REBOUND TOWARD MID 80S AT THE MIDNIGHT STANDARD OBSERVATION
TIME. SO IT WILL BE GETTING HOT AGAIN...BUT THE DEW POINTS AREN/T
GOING TO BE TOO BAD WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN CHECK.
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS HERE AND
THERE...BUT NOTHING REALLY THAT THE MODELS ARE FOCUSED IN ON
UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES TOWARD MID MONTH. WE ARE CLOSE TO MAV
MEX WHICH MAY BE HOT...AND TEMPERED BY BLENDING IN SOME SUPER
BLEND ON OUR TEMPS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  74  96 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  72  96  73  97 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  66  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
TXK  69  94  71  96 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  68  94  69  95 /  20  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  10  10
GGG  71  95  74  94 /  10  20  10  10
LFK  70  93  72  93 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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