Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 300245
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
945 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT UNFOLDING WITH NICE DEW POINTS IN PLACE WITH
STILL LIGHT NE SFC WINDS. WE ARE SEEING A BIT MORE CLOUDS
ENCROUCHING AND HAVE ADDED SOME NUMBERS THERE. A FEW ZONE
GROUPINGS NOW READ MOSTLY CLOUDY. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
AT ANY RATE A GOOD TEST FOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AFTER A MONTHLY
REBOOT LAST HOUR...THE VOICE IMPROVEMENT PROCESSOR CAN UPDATE SOME OF
THE PREVIOUSLY PACKAGE FEATURING HANS...OUR NWR VOICE FROM THE
PAST.

WE ARE GEARING UP FOR A LITLE MORE ACTIVITY AROUND FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW SENDING ANOTHER GOOD VORT
DOWN THE PIPE LATE THIS WEEK. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INCREASING
TONIGHT WITH A FEW MID DECK SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK AND
THEN INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE NEW DAY FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE
REGION. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE 30/00Z TAF PERIOD. WHILE
THE CU FIELD IS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE
REGION...SEEING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF AC TRYING TO ADVANCE ESE INTO
THE WRN SECTIONS OF E TX...WHERE AREAS OF -RA ARE ONGOING ABOUT
25NM W OF TYR. THIS -RA SHOULD REMAIN W OF TYR THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING...WITH CIGS NEAR 15KFT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO
AROUND 10KFT AROUND/JUST PRIOR TO 12Z OVER MUCH OF E TX. SHOULD
ALSO SEE THE CIRRUS SHIELD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT FROM THE NW AS
WELL...WITH THE AC EVENTUALLY SPREADING E INTO SW AR/N LA AFTER
12Z. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY PATCHY
FG IN THE USUAL AREAS...WITH DRIER AIR TO THE E OVER SCNTRL
AR/NCNTRL LA LIMITING PATCHY FG POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS AC SHIELD
MAY BE HARD TO BUDGE THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY...AS SCT TO
NUMEROUS AREAS OF CONVECTION SPREADS E ACROSS MUCH OF OK AND
EVENTUALLY INTO WRN AR BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF -RA
CAN/T BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DO NOT WARRANT MENTION IN THE
TXK TAF ATTM. HOWEVER...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ACROSS THESE AREAS JUST AFTER 06Z THURSDAY. ENE WINDS
5KTS OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SSE 5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY HAS SHAPED UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL JULY
DAY...WITH NW FLOW CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS OUR EXPECTED MID-LATE WEEK DISTURBANCE CHURNING
OVER THE UT/CO ROCKIES. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN TO BRING
SHWRS/TSTMS INTO OUR NRN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS IT
INTERACTS WITH A RETREATING WARM FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS...ALL SETTLING IN ON ERN OK/WRN AR THROUGH THURSDAY.
ATTM...WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCHES APPEARS REASONABLE...WITH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS.

RAIN IS FCST TO SHIFT SWD INTO FRIDAY...AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SWD. TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL RUN WELL
BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST...AS THE TROF
AXIS LINGERS AND RAIN/CLOUD COVER KEEP DAYTIME HEATING AT BAY.

AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND...THE TROF AXIS WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN
TO SHIFT EWD...WHICH WILL KEEP THE FRONT STALLED ALONG OUR SRN
FRINGES. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREAS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  87  69  82  68 /  10  20  50  40  40
MLU  65  86  66  81  67 /  10  20  40  40  40
DEQ  65  77  64  76  64 /  10  50  80  60  20
TXK  67  82  66  77  65 /  10  50  70  60  30
ELD  64  84  65  77  64 /  10  30  50  60  30
TYR  72  88  72  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
GGG  71  88  71  82  69 /  10  20  50  40  30
LFK  71  93  73  89  72 /  10  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




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