Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 270242
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
942 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 27/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF PERIOD BUT
LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG LINE OF
CONVECTION OVER S OK/N TX. THIS LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST INTO OUR REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE WEE
HOURS OF THE MORNING. TSTMS MAY STILL BE SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO
OUR E TX TAF SITES VERY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 27/06Z...CONTINUING
EWD INTO TXK/SHV AND EVENTUALLY ELD/MLU LATER IN THE MORNING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EXITING THE REGION BY AROUND MIDDAY INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CIGS BACK INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
AREA WIDE. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND WILL VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AS THE FRONT APPROACHES BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT LATER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG CAPPING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ABUNDANT
CUMULUS CLOUD STREETS IN PLACE...BUT NO ECHOES ON RADAR. IN
FACT...ONLY ISOLD STORMS BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG DRYLINE OVER
CENTRAL TX...WELL WEST OF METROPLEX WITH SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING AT
DFW STILL QUITE CAPPED. HAVE BACKED OFF A LOT ON EVE POPS AS HRRR
DOES NOT BRING CONVECTION INTO NE TX/SE OK UNTIL LATE EVE. EXTREME
LAPSE RATES SUGGEST VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL AS LOW LVL
SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICENT FOR BOTH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. WEAKENING MCS INTO NW LA/SW AR AT DAYBREAK WILL BE
QUICK TO REGENERATE WITH DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MAINLY LA/AR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH STG/SVR TSTMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
A TEMPORARY BREAK AS THIS FRONT SETTLES JUST SOUTH OF CWA LATE
WEDNEDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NEXT STRONG SYSTEM WILL RIDE UP OVER
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH AN EVEN BIGGER THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL THAN CURRENT APPROACHING SYSTEM. SVR WX ALSO APPEARS TO
BE AN INCREASING THREAT...ESPECIALLY INTO SATURDAY AS THE HEAVY
RAIN CONTINUES AND FLOOD WATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
POSSIBLE FLOOD STAGE RISES IN SOME OF AREA RIVERS. AS LOW LVL JET
INCREASES OVERNIGHT...LWA IN EFFECT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND
THE 10 PM EXPIRATION TIME. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  83  66  85 /  60  70  20  10
MLU  69  85  68  85 /  20  70  40  10
DEQ  65  81  59  85 /  70  50  10  10
TXK  68  82  63  85 /  60  70  10  10
ELD  68  83  65  85 /  40  70  20  10
TYR  68  83  64  85 /  70  40  10  10
GGG  68  84  65  85 /  70  60  10  10
LFK  69  83  68  86 /  60  70  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-059-
     070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

19



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.