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000
FXUS64 KSHV 181552
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1052 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS ARE RAPIDLY ERODING FROM SW TO NE AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT SOME SCT CIRRUS DAYTIME CUMULUS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. OTHER THAN THE MINOR UPDATES TO THE SKY
GRIDS...THE REMAINDER OF TODAY/S FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR FLIGHT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIFTING AND BECOMING
VFR WITH A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD WITH HIGH CIRRUS ABOVE FOR THE
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES AND MOST OTHER AIRPORTS ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION BY START OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AT 18/18 UTC.
THE CUMULUS FIELD AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT WILL DIMINISH DURING THE  EARLY
EVENING. A 30 TO 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST LLJ/LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH A
NEAR 20 KNOT BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...RESULTING IN A NORTH ADVECTION OF MVFR CIGS INTO THE REGION
AFTER 19/06 UTC SUNDAY. LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TO NEAR 17 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH 19/00 UTC WHEN SPEEDS
LOWER SLIGHTLY TO 7 TO 11 KNOTS. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
19/15 UTC AND BECOME STRONGER THAN THOSE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY BREEZE KEEPING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
REGION...AND EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN LOWER TO MID 70S DURG THE
PREDAWN HOURS. PATCHY FOG IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AND PERHAPS EXTREME NW LA. WILL LEAVE IN PATCHY FOG FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH VSBYS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR MENTION
IN FCST. AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVHD THIS AFTN... THIS GOOD
HEADSTART ON TEMPS WILL FURTHER WARM QUICKLY AS CLOUDS QUICKLY
DIMINISH BY MIDDAY...AND AFTN TEMPS WILL RISE TO NEAR THE 90
DEGREE MARK ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. A NEARLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEKEND OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. GFS AND ECMWF IN AGREEMENT WITH A FURTHER NORTHERN
PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...IN CONTRAST TO THE NAM. THIS PLACEMENT
SHOULD KEEP THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS WILL AWAY
FROM THE CWA THRU AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM LEAVING IN
ISOLD DIURNAL CONVECTION NORTH OF I-30...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP
FAIRLY PERSISTENT FEATURES ACROSS REGION...WITH AFTN TEMPS RISING
TO UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASED
CHANCE OF TSTMS INTO REGION TUE AFTN...INTO WED...AS COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO REGION. THIS FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL LA WED
NIGHT/THUR AND FOR NOW...WILL REMOVE POPS AS AIRMASS APPEARS TO
STABILIZE SOMEWHAT. STORMS WILL LACK INTENSE LOW LVL SHEAR OF
RECENT EVENTS...BUT CONDITIONS MAY BE MARGINAL FOR A FEW SVR STORMS
TO OCCUR./VII/

$$

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  71  88  70  90 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  88  72  88  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  88  70  88  69  87 /  10  10  20  20  20
TXK  89  70  88  70  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
ELD  88  71  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  89  69  89  72  88 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  90  70  88  71  89 /  10  10  10  10  10
LFK  91  71  89  73  90 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/06