Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221905
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
205 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF WEST
TEXAS...WILL MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT AND INTO ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKENING AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ARKLATEX. WE WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY AND SOME OF THE SURROUNDING AREAS IN TX
AND AR...BUT THE LIMITED MOISTURE ARGUES FOR KEEPING POPS AT 20
PERCENT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...EXPECT ONLY SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CLOUD COVER...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY WITH MOST READINGS IN THE LOWER AND MID
70S.

THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE THURSDAY
AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS RIDGE WILL
EXPAND AND INFLUENCE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY BY
THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT WILL BE DRY WEATHER...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE FORECAST OVER THE
AREA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND BREAK DOWN THE CENTRAL U.S. RIDGING BY MONDAY. MOST OF THE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOME AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS NOT
STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AFTER
TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT LOOK ADEQUATE
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST AREAS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY DRY FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES WITH FRONTAL LOCATION.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...
MAINLY FROM INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

GP/FWD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  50  75  49  80  53 /   0  10  10   0   0
MLU  46  75  46  78  50 /   0  10  10   0   0
DEQ  47  74  47  81  52 /  10  20  10   0   0
TXK  49  73  49  80  54 /   0  20  10   0   0
ELD  45  73  44  78  50 /   0  10  10   0   0
TYR  54  77  54  82  59 /   0  10  10   0   0
GGG  52  76  52  81  56 /   0  10  10   0   0
LFK  52  80  51  82  53 /   0  10  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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