Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 021645
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WARMER AIR NOT FAR OFF...ABOUT 60 DEGREES AT 3 KFT ABOVE THE
SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...WITH SATURATION TO AT LEAST
10 KFT...DO NOT LOOK FOR ANY SUN TO HELP GET THE MIXING NEEDED TO
WORK THE COLD AIR OUT. THUS CLOUDY AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING...SO NO UPDATE PLANNED
ATTM. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 02/12Z TAFS...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AREAWIDE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF
THE TAF SITES INTO SE OK/SRN AR BUT MORE SCATTERED AREAS OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERIODICALLY AFFECT SOME OF THE
TERMINALS. AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SOMEWHAT BY 03/00Z BUT
WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND THE VERY MOIST SOILS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG AFTER 03/03Z. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN GULF COAST TO NEAR LAFAYETTE AND
BATON ROUGE TO SHIFT NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON REPLACING THE COLD
AIRMASS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX WITH A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS. COULD SEE
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT. TEMPS TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY TONIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTH RESTRICTS DIURNAL COOLING.

AN UNSETTLED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY DESPITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING TO LIFT PARCELS OVER
COLD AIRMASS TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...NO
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

AS SURFACE HIGH SURGES SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A MIX
OF WINTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. WITH 850 AND 700 MB
TROUGH LAGGING BEHIND COLD AIR SURFACE INTRUSION AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE A FREEZING RAIN
THREAT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING TRANSITIONING INTO A SLEET/SNOW MIX AFTER MIDNIGHT. AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ALONG A LINE FROM LUFKIN TO MONROE
WILL SEE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AT THIS TIME COULD SEE ICE TOTALS AS HIGH AS A TENTH OF AN INCH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SNOW/SLEET
TOTALS FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES ACROSS THESE SAME AREAS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS FARTHER SOUTH.

COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND 20S ELSEWHERE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  47  70  57  59 /  70  40  40  60  80
MLU  47  45  70  60  62 /  70  40  40  50  80
DEQ  44  38  61  43  44 /  50  40  60  70  80
TXK  43  39  65  51  51 /  60  40  60  70  80
ELD  43  42  67  54  55 /  70  40  40  70  80
TYR  47  46  68  53  53 /  60  40  60  60  80
GGG  48  47  70  55  56 /  60  40  50  60  80
LFK  54  52  74  62  64 /  70  40  40  40  80

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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