Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 030035
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
735 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR W DOMINATED THE WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT ONLY A
FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY...WITH LIGHT AND
VRBL WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER QUIET AND WARM DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH A SFC HIGH FIRMLY
IN PLACE OVER WRN AR. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPS TO COOL NICELY BACK TO NEAR 70 DEGREES F TONIGHT.
MONDAY SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THE SFC HIGH WILL
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. LOW LVL AIRMASS REMAINS VERY
DRY AS VERTICAL MIXING ALLOWS DEWPOINTS TO MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOW 60S MONDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN RH VALUES FALLING TO
NEAR OR BELOW 30 PERCENT. WHILE THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX
READINGS VERY NEAR THE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURE...IT WILL ALSO KEEP
OUR RAIN CHANCES EXTREMELY LOW.

THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO OPEN AGAIN BY LATE MONDAY AND MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS SOUTHERLY FLOW FINALLY RETURNS. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER W TX WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND THE NWLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS KS TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY. THE BEST VERTICAL ASCENT WILL BE CLOSER TO
THE TROUGH AND A WEAK FRONT WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA BUT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS DOES EXIST MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HRS ACROSS DEEP E
TX/CNTRL LA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD EACH DAY ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT. THE BEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE NORTH OF THE AREA
WHICH DOES NOT HELP OUR RAIN CHANCES. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER OF
THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BE MOVING BACK TO THE EAST WHICH WOULD
ALTER THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND KEEP CONVECTION OUT OF THE CWA.
IN SHORT...THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY
PROMISING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

WITHOUT ANY RAIN TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY
STAY IN THE UPPER 90S AND OCCASIONALLY REACH OR EXCEED 100
DEGREES F. THE INCREASING GULF MOISTURE WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGHER
HUMIDITY VALUES AND HIGHER HEAT INDICES...POSSIBLY REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ONCE AGAIN DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  99  76  99 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  69  99  74  98 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  66  98  71  96 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  69  98  74  97 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  67  98  73  98 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  73  99  75  98 /   0   0   0  10
GGG  70  99  75  99 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  69  98  74  98 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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