Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 020131
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
831 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG NWD MOVG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BEGUN TO DIMINISH AS
EXPECTED. HOWEVER...ISOLD CONVECTION FURTHER SOUTH STILL HOLDING
TOGETHER AND COULD REACH SOUTHERN TIER LA PARISHES LATER THIS
EVE. THUS...LEFT IN 20 PERCENT POPS FOR EXTREME SE CWA UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW CUMULUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DISSIPATE AND THE REMAINING SEA
BREEZE ISOLD TSTMS WILL SOON TOO BY SUNDOWN. LIGHT S WINDS ON THE
SURFACE WITH SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AROUND 20 KTS. ABV
4KFT...THE WINDS SLACK AND BACK TO SE BRIEFLY...BEFORE VEERING
BACK TO SW ON INTO THE THE MID LEVELS. EXPECTING THAT SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO ADVECT IN MORE IFR/MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH VFR BY
MID MORNING. AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL SPREAD NORTH OFF THE GULF ONCE
AGAIN. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SFC PERSISTS AROUND 5-10G20KTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SEA BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS SE HALF OF
CWA...SPARING MUCH OF SW AR...SE OK...AND NE TX. ALSO...IT APPEARS THAT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVG SOUTH ACROSS AR HAS DIMINISHED WITH NO
LASTING EFFECTS INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO DIMINISH
DURG THE EARLY EVE. MORNING LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WEAK
BUT DEEP SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW TO CONTINUE. SEA BREEZE MAY ALSO
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE. HOWEVER...BY WED MORNING... THESE LOW CLOUDS
MAY BE CONFINED TO NE TX...AS SFC HIGH OVER LOWER MS VALLEY
SHUNTS MOISTURE WWD. MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGING BREAKS DOWN AND COOL
FRONT PUSHES INTO AREA BY AROUND SAT NIGHT...AND BOUNDARY BEGINS
TO WASH OUT AS IT STALLS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER WITH THIS BOUNDARY.
THIS FAR OUT...NOT GOING HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT NEAR BOUNDARY.
ALSO...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OFF THE YUCATAN IS SHOWING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...AND
INCLUDE A NWD MOVEMENT ACROSS GULF...COULD COME INTO PLAY FOR
WEEKEND FCST. HOWEVER...NOT FACTORED IN YET FOR WEEKEND FCST./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  95  75  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
MLU  77  93  75  94  74 /  10  30  30  20  20
DEQ  74  94  73  94  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  75  94  74  94  74 /  10  20  20  10  10
ELD  75  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
TYR  75  95  74  95  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
GGG  76  95  74  96  75 /  10  20  20  10  10
LFK  76  93  76  94  75 /  10  30  30  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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