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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210448
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1148 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 21/06z TAFs, VFR conditions should prevail at all TAF
sites for the duration of the period with wind speeds remaining
below 10 kts. Isolated convection is possible just about anywhere
during peak daytime heating. However, convective coverage is
expected to be so spotty that chances of showers or storms at any
individual site are too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs at
this time.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 947 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Much of the afternoon cu field and very isolated -SHRA have diminished
this evening with the loss of heating, with weak H850-700 ridging
expected to linger over the region overnight through Friday. 02Z
temps are nearly identical to what was observed 24 hours ago,
albeit max temps were about a degree higher today than Wednesday.
Feel like min temps late tonight should be very similar to what
was observed this morning, with upper 70s possible over the more
urbanized areas. Did make some minor tweak to min temps, which
resulted in a 1 category adjustment to the forecast, thus have
updated the zones to account for this.

Should see Heat Advisory criteria again be met again Friday
afternoon over much of the region, with the potential for more in
the way of isolated afternoon/evening convection over Ncntrl LA
and portions of Deep E TX as the weak upper trough noted on the
water vapor imagery over Nrn FL retrogrades slowly W along the
Gulf coast. There still remains some uncertainty in the progs this
evening regarding the position of this upper trough Saturday, and
its impacts of cloud cover/more in the way of isolated/sct
convection especially over the Srn and Ern sections of the region,
which would influence cloud cover and max temps. Rather than
locking later shifts into a Heat Advisory extension, which still
may be needed for portions of the region Saturday, have not made
any changes to the existing advisory and will allow later shifts
to address this potential need after coordinating with adjacent
WFO`s.

Thank you WFO LZK for coordination this evening. Zone update
already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  97  77  93 /   0  20  20  30
MLU  76  97  76  93 /   0  20  20  30
DEQ  74  97  73  95 /   0  10  10  10
TXK  76  96  76  94 /   0  10  10  20
ELD  74  96  74  93 /   0  20  20  30
TYR  76  96  77  94 /   0  20  20  20
GGG  76  96  77  93 /   0  20  20  20
LFK  75  95  75  93 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09/15