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000
FXUS64 KSHV 101007
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
507 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.AVIATION...
DENSE FOG IS WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING WITH MANY TERMINALS AT OR
NEAR 1/4 MILE WITH VVS NEAR 1HDFT. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS SHOULD
BEGIN LIFTING/MIXING OUT BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH ONLY HIGH
THIN CIRRUS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.
SOME CEILINGS IN THE 3-5KFT RANGE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS. WHILE SOME SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE LFK TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT...CHANCES ARE NOT
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

LOOK FOR SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND
TO MORE OF A WSW DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING TO A
SW DIRECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 10KTS
AT ANY ONE LOCATION.

/13/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLED IN ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
CALM WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS...HELPING SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
FOGGY MORNING AREA WIDE AS NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS AT THE SFC
HAVE PERSISTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS NOW. WITH THAT SAID...MADE A LATE
CALL TO GO AHEAD WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF OUR REGION
THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE FOG...LOW STRATUS IS
ALSO IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SE OK
AND PARTS OF NE TX WHICH IS WHERE THE FOG IS MOST DENSE. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF S/SW
WINDS AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EWRD. THIS WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS
TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES OF MID TO UPPER 60S.

SHIFTING OUR ATTENTION AHEAD TO TUESDAY...CUTOFF LOW OVER NRN
MEXICO WILL SHIFT ACROSS S TX AND TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL HELP INITIATE SOME SHWRS ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT HEADING
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY TRIGGER A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHWRS BUT VERY LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE VERY GUSTY
NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOWS DIPPING
BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SETTLE OVER THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY WITH A MODEST REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
FRONT SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WITH AN AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
TROUGH PATTERN SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS AND S CNTRL CONUS. EXPECT
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND SOME BENEFICIAL
RAIN FOR THE REGION AS THE YEAR HAS STARTED OUT A BIT ON THE DRY
SIDE THUS FAR DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF WINTER.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  56  77  53  62 /   0  10  20  10  10
MLU  73  54  76  56  63 /   0  10  30  20  20
DEQ  71  50  77  47  59 /   0  10  10  10  10
TXK  71  54  76  49  60 /   0  10  10  10  10
ELD  71  53  77  52  60 /   0  10  20  20  10
TYR  74  57  77  46  61 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  74  56  77  52  61 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  74  56  78  54  65 /   0  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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