Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 241811
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
111 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/18Z TAFS...AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS WILL LEAVE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SHV...MLU...TXK...AND ELD THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR WILL
WORK ITS WAY IN THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LIFT THE CLOUD DECK.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION SE OF MLU...HOWEVER...SPARSE
COVERAGE WILL PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING...CREATING
IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS. 20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD POOL FROM THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MCS HAS SETTLED
S INTO SE TX/CNTRL AND NE LA...WITH LOW STRATUS STILL HANGING
TOUGH OVER N LA/SW AR BENEATH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z KSHV RAOB. THE VISIBLE SATELLITE
LOOP INDICATES THAT THIS STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING ON THE ERN AND
WRN FRINGES ACROSS E TX/NCNTRL LA...ALTHOUGH THE STRATUS OVER SW
AR IS HAVING A LITTLE HARDER TIME LIFTING AS DRIER AIR OVER
CNTRL/NE AR IS HELPING TO LIFT THE STRATUS THROUGH THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AR AS IT SLOWLY BACKDOORS SW ACROSS THE STATE. NO
DOUBT THAT THIS STRATUS HAVE IMPACTED THE MAX TEMP FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALES STILL BENEATH THE CLOUD COVER STRUGGLING
TO REACH 90 DEGREES. WITH THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS HAVING DRIFTED S
AND BECOME ABSORBED IN THE OPENING LOW SPINNING JUST OFF THE S LA
COAST THIS MORNING...THERE WILL BE LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...ASIDE FROM THE SERN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL
COLD POOL LINGERING OVER CNTRL/NE LA CLOSEST TO THIS TROUGH.

HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS A TAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE OVER DEEP E TX AND
MUCH OF NCNTRL LA...ESPECIALLY AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT CENTERED
OVER NM BEGINS TO EXPAND E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TODAY AND INTO
THE MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES AS WELL AREAWIDE...WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPS IN THE LFK
AREA. HAVE ALSO BEEFED UP SKY CONDITIONS FOR THE SHORT TERM ACROSS
SW AR/NW LA...WITH THE STRATUS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
LATE IN THE DAY OVER SW AR. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  73  96  75  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  92  69  94  72  96 /  20  10   0   0   0
DEQ  91  69  96  72  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
TXK  89  70  96  73  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
ELD  91  67  94  72  97 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  94  75  99  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
GGG  93  74  97  75  98 /  10  10   0   0   0
LFK  96  74  98  74  97 /  20  20  20   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

20




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