Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 291608 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1108 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED S OF THE CWA ALONG WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIP. ANOTHER WEAK S/W TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD HELP INITIATE A FEW SHWRS ACROSS THE SRN
ZONES BUT DRY AIR ALOFT IS QUICKLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SO WILL
ONLY MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
SKY GRIDS WERE ALSO UPDATED TO REFLECT THE CLEARING SKIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE DRY AIR INVADES. REMAINDER OF THE GRIDS
WERE LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS LINGER THIS MORNING ALONG/JUST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT...EXTENDING FROM A CLL...TO LFK...TO S OF A IER...TO NEAR
HEZ LINE AS OF 11Z...WITH THE LOW CIGS AS FAR N AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA. THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH
MIDDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ERN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA /S OF
MLU/ AS WELL. SHOULD SEE CIGS CLEAR FROM N TO S TODAY...EVENTUALLY
CLEARING THE LFK TERMINAL BY 00Z THURSDAY. ONCE THE CIGS DO
CLEAR...SKC WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. NNE WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT NE OR LT/VRB
AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 537 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH ALL BUT TOLEDO BEND AND KISATCHIE WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY RIGHT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND
GENERALLY CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 FROM HALL SUMMIT
TO MONROE. OUR TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE QUITE VARIED WITH
UPPER FORTIES AND LOW TO MID 50S WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE
NORTH AND GENERALLY RANGING IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE
UNDER THE CLOUDS. OVERALL...IT WOULD APPEAR AS THOUGH THE UPPER
TROUGH IS GIVING ONE LAST GOOD PUSH THIS MORNING...BUT WITH STILL
SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FROM DEEP EAST
TEXAS...ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH HEATING. WE ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM AND
WILL SEE LOW TO MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. OUR VAD IS SHOWING SOME DECENT DEPTH TO
THE N/NE FLOW OF CCA TO 3KFT AND SHOULD ACHIEVE 5KFT OR SO BY THIS
EVENING. NW FLOW ALOFT IS ESTABLISHING NOW AND WILL LINGER INTO
THE WEEKEND.

AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...A SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS SET TO ARRIVE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS...ORIGINATING FROM THE ARCTIC.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE WINDY DAY WITH SLACKING OVERNIGHT AND VERY RICH
CCA TAKING US DOWN IN THE LOW...BUT MOSTLY MID AND UPPER 30S FOR
AN AVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. WE COULD WELL SEE AN EARLY FREEZE
UP IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES OF OK/AR. EVEN OUR HIGHS WILL BE SOME
10-15 DEGREES COLDER ON SATURDAY...BUT START TO WARM ON SUNDAY. WE
WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LOWS THIS WEEKEND.
SUNDAY A.M. MAY WIN OUT AS THE COLDEST OVERALL AND WITH CALMER
WINDS AND IT WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIALLY FROSTY MORNING. SO
TENDER PLANTS WILL MORE THAN BARE WATCHING AND LOOK TO NEED
PROTECTION FOR SURE AT THIS POINT. NORTH OF I-30 MAY AGAIN SEE
SOME VALLEY FREEZING READING SCATTERED UP NORTH WHICH IS A LITTLE
EARLY FOR MID FALL...BUT THIS IS A PRETTY COLD AIR MASS THAT WILL
DROP IN QUICKLY SO AS NOT TO MODIFY MUCH BY THE TIME IT SETS UP
SHOP. USUALLY WE SEE THE FIRST FREEZE UP NORTH IN THE FIRST OR
SECOND WEEK OF NOV. DOWN ALONG I-20 IT IS USUALLY BY MID NOVEMBER
OR SO. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS VERY COLD AIR WILL ONLY BE HERE
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FAR AS RAINFALL...THE GFS AND EURO MODELS ARE A
LITTLE BACK AND FORTH NOW FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND EVEN SOMEWHAT
DRIER FOR TUESDAY. THE WETTER PERIOD MAY BE LATE THAT NIGHT INTO
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY WITH SOME 1 TO 4 INCH EVENT TOTALS WITH STILL A
GOOD TROPICAL FETCH OFF OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MEX TEMPS HAVE BEEN
BLENDED INTO THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  47  76  50  72 /  10   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  45  74  47  71 /  20  10  10  10   0
DEQ  76  39  74  43  66 /  10   0  10  10   0
TXK  74  46  74  50  67 /  10   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  44  74  46  68 /  10   0  10  10   0
TYR  75  49  76  50  70 /  10   0  10  10   0
GGG  75  46  76  49  71 /  10   0  10  10   0
LFK  77  51  78  49  74 /  20  10  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/03





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