Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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835
FXUS64 KSHV 210853
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UNSEASONABLY
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY...
EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REPLACE
THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...AND THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST...SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO INCREASE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK
SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES EASTERN
AREAS TO ISOLATED. A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...WHICH
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED...
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...EXPECT VERY HUMID WEATHER DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  59  77  66 /  50  30  30  20
MLU  74  57  77  64 /  20  10  10  20
DEQ  72  55  71  60 /  50  20  50  20
TXK  71  57  73  62 /  50  20  40  20
ELD  71  57  74  62 /  30  10  20  20
TYR  74  62  77  67 /  50  30  50  20
GGG  75  61  78  67 /  50  30  40  20
LFK  81  67  81  70 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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