Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160459 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1159 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKC WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXTENSIVE AREAS OF CIRRUS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE W AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS SE OK/E TX...BEFORE
RAPIDLY SPREADING E AND AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM W TO E WEDNESDAY EVENING. SFC RIDGING IN PLACE THIS EVENING
OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SW INTO E TX WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LT/VRB WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ASIDE
FROM LT SE WINDS RETURNING TO PORTIONS OF E TX. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12KTS AFTER 15Z...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS POSSIBLE FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE TYR TERMINAL. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD...BUT THIN CIRRUS SKIRTING NORTHERN TIER.
SOME OF THIS COULD DISAPPEAR WITH OUR PWAT AT TWO TENTHS. MANY
LOCALES NORTH AND EAST HAVE BEEN CALM SINCE SUNSET AND DEW POINTS
HAVE TAKEN A HIT IN THE WRONG DIRECTION FROM FRESH VAPOR OUT OF
THE SOIL. WE STILL SEE SCATTERED LOW 30S AND WITH TEMPS FALLING
THE RESIDUAL HEAT FROM THE DAY IS GOING TO RUN OUT AS THE TOP SOIL
CONTINUES TO COOL. 18Z MODEL DEW POINTS ARE ALMOST UNREASONABLE
COMPARED THESE MID EVENING READINGS...BUT THINKING IS THAT
OVERNIGHT WE WILL FALL BACK THROUGH THE DEW POINT. TOUGH
CALL...BUT HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE WELL ENOUGH ALONE IN THAT EVENT.
THE SECOND NIGHT IS TYPICALLY THE COLDEST NIGHT FOR OUR EAST AND
WE WILL GO WITH THAT FOR PATTERN RECOGNITION. THE HIGHEST PRESSURE
AROUND IS JUST TO OUR EAST AT GREENVILLE MS AND TALLULAH LA AT
1025 MB. SO THERE IS STILL SOME LIGHT NE WINDS IN NORTH CENTRAL LA
FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE MIXING...BUT COLD AIR MASS MAY HAVE MODIFIED
JUST A LITTLE TOO MUCH TODAY...THAT COUPLE WITH THE EARLY CALM
THIS EVENING. ONLY CHANGE TO WEATHER GRIDS IS PUSH BACK PATCHY
FROST FROM MIDNIGHT TO MATCH FREEZE WARNING IN THE WEE HOURS PRIOR
TO DAYBREAK. AT ANY RATE...BETTER SAFE THAN SORRY WITH THE LAST
GASP OF WINTER IS THE FOUR STATE AREA. PLANTS SHOULD BE SAFE FROM
HERE OUT UNTIL NEXT FALL. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  65  45  71  54 /   0  10  10  10  10
MLU  31  64  42  70  55 /   0  10  10  10  10
DEQ  31  65  41  67  47 /   0  10  10  20  20
TXK  35  65  42  68  51 /   0  10  10  10  20
ELD  30  63  40  69  52 /   0  10  10  10  20
TYR  36  68  49  71  52 /   0  10  10  10  10
GGG  36  67  45  71  53 /   0  10  10  10  10
LFK  36  68  49  72  57 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-060-061-072-073.

LA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ004>006-013-014-019>022.

OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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