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000
FXUS64 KSHV 072244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
444 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED RETURNS THAT
HAVE RECENTLY BEGUN TO REACH THE GROUND PER SFC REPORTS...WITH A
MIXTURE OF -RA/IP/-FZRA ALREADY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX. COLUMN
SATURATION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AS SFC TEMPS FALL TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. BELIEVE THAT ANY IP MIX WILL BE SHORT
LIVED...AS THE WARM LYR DEEPENS JUST ABOVE THE NEAR FREEZING SFC.
THUS...-FZRA SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...ALTHOUGH AN
IP/-SN MIX WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY NW OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR
WHERE THE COLD AIR IS DEEPER. ONCE SATURATION OCCURS...COULD SEE
ICE ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH...MAINLY CREATING
A GLAZE ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES...TREES AND POWER LINES. TEMPS
ALONG AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW FREEZING THIS EVENING...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY RISING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE FREEZING LATE OVER THESE AREAS AS THE WARMER TEMPS ALOFT IS
MIXED DOWN TO THE GROUND WITH THE PRECIP. HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY FOR ALL THE AREA BUT THE
EXTREME SRN COUNTIES OF DEEP E TX AND NCNTRL LA...WHERE TEMPS ARE
AT OR SLIGHT BELOW FREEZING ATTM. SOME OF THIS ADVISORY MAY BE TRIMMED
BACK LATE SHOULD TEMPS ACROSS THE SRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BEGIN
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING...BUT THE PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY LATE AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE...NOW ENTERING FAR W
TX...QUICKLY TRANSLATES E ACROSS THE REGION.

WITH OVERRUNNING INCREASING THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...AND
CONTINUING IN THE VC OF WEAK PVA OVER CNTRL/NE LA AND CNTRL
MS...THE PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE ERN SECTIONS OF
NCNTRL LA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH THE THREAT OF -FZRA
DIMINISHING AS SFC TEMPS CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
LIKELY FOR THESE AREAS SUNDAY...TAPERING POPS FARTHER W INTO SW
AR/E TX...WITH THESE AREAS OF -RA DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY.

SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH THE MODELS REMAINING
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE FORCING INCREASING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT OVER E TX/N LA...AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH
AS IT PROGRESSES E INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE SRN
ROCKIES. MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH ONE MORE ROUND OF -FZRA AGAIN
MAINLY OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS TEMPS FALL TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING...WHICH MAY RESULT IN LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN. TEMPS ALONG/S OF I-20 ACROSS EXTREME ERN TX/N
LA SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN COLD/WET
CONDITIONS INSTEAD. DID MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR E TX/N LA
ALONG/S OF I-20 UNDER THE AREAS OF GREATEST FORCING...WITH THIS
PRECIP DIMINISHING FROM W TO E TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTERWARDS...A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
OVER THE SRN PLAINS/SE CONUS...BEFORE SW FLOW RETURN AHEAD OF
ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SW INTO NRN BAJA.
THUS...RAIN LOOKS TO QUICKLY RETURN TO THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E SATURDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.AVIATION...
STRATUS LAYER CONTINUES TO BLANKET THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLOUD BASES GENERALLY IN THE RANGE FROM 1K-2KFT. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR
CIGS TO MAINTAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP ONCE
AGAIN AFTER SUNSET AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBNACE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS AND NORTH AFTER 08/00Z. FARTHER SOUTH
TOWARD LFK...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SOME SLEET. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP EVEN FURTHER TO IFR OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH DEGRADED VSBYS DURING PRECIPITATION.
GUSTY N/NE WINDS FROM 10-15 KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 08/00Z AND THEN
DROP OFF TO BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. ALOFT...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SW WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING THE COLDER AIR AT THE SFC. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  31  38  33  48  35 /  40  30  10  30  40
MLU  31  37  36  48  36 /  60  60  50  40  50
DEQ  28  36  26  40  28 /  30  10  10  10  20
TXK  27  36  30  45  30 /  40  20  10  20  30
ELD  28  36  30  46  32 /  60  30  20  30  40
TYR  29  39  29  45  32 /  30  10  10  20  30
GGG  29  38  30  46  32 /  30  20  10  20  40
LFK  33  43  36  48  38 /  40  20  20  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-019-021.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

15/19