Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241802
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
102 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
MORNING IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CLEAR
OUT ACROSS LA/AR PORTIONS OF AREA. HOWEVER...CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO
VFR ACROSS NE TX...AND BECMG SKC AT KLFK. AS TEMPS WARM TO AOB 80
DEGREES...EXPLOSIVE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR. VERY STG LOW LVL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL BRING A THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES ACROSS NE TX BY AROUND 24/21-22Z...WITH WARM
FRONT MOVG SLOWLY NWD ACROSS AREA. IN ADDITION...A SLOW MOVG
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP LATER THIS EVE...AND BRING STG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS OVERNIGHT. WITH PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH BRINGING
LINE OF STORMS...WINDS BECMG SW 10 TO 20 KTS...AND VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO AREA BY AROUND 25/15Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TWO AREAS OF CONCERN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST
BEING INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST/EAST
CENTRAL TX AND THE SECOND BEING INCREASING COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR.

THE FIRST IS DUE IN PART TO A WEAK PERTURBATION IN SW FLOW ALOFT
SWINGING NE FROM CENTRAL TX. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ALSO HAS
SOME SURFACE SUPPORT AS AN ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT NEARLY
STAGNATED FROM N TX...SNAKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR INTO SOUTHEAST LA. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO COME SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA. THE SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS OF A MORE
ELEVATED NATURE THIS MORNING WITH COVERAGE NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT BUT IS
SITUATED AGAIN WITH STRONGER PERTURBATIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

FOR THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...RAISED RAIN CHANCES WHERE THESE TWO
ENHANCED AREAS OF PRECIP WERE OBSERVED. OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
FOR LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON JUST HOW MUCH
WE ARE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE AND HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT MAKES
IT INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE HRRR SHOWS A BREAK IN THE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NE
TX IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST DISTURBANCE AND THIS MAY BE THE BREAK
NECESSARY FOR AT LEAST OUR SOUTHERN HALF TO WARM UP AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS TIME. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND EVENTUAL BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IF
WE CAN GET THE INSTABILITY TO INCREASE LATER TODAY. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS
EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  70  89  64 /  80  80  20   0
MLU  74  71  90  64 /  70  80  30  10
DEQ  67  63  86  55 /  80  70  10   0
TXK  70  69  89  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELD  70  69  90  60 /  80  80  20   0
TYR  78  70  89  64 /  80  50  10   0
GGG  77  69  90  64 /  80  70  10   0
LFK  80  71  91  67 /  80  50  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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