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000
FXUS64 KSHV 071206
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
606 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...SATURATED AIR NEAR THE SFC HAS CREATED AREAS OF
DENSE FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS N LA AND PARTS OF S AR/E TX. VSBYS
HAVE FALLEN TO LESS THAN A MILE AT MLU AND AT SHV/GGG AS WELL.
THESE VERY LOW VSBYS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
BUT SOME LOW STRATUS HAS ALSO DEVELOPED AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. GENERALLY SPEAKING...VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AREA WIDE AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING AS SOUTH
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EWRD. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE W/SW. AT THE SFC...S/SE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-12 KTS. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FIRST CONCERN IS AREA OF DENSE FOG ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES.
VSBYS HAVE BEEN CRATERING ALL NIGHT AND THE FOG FORMATION IS
ADVECTING SLOWLY WESTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING. HAVE HOISTED A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY KEEPING IT JUST EAST OF THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER METRO
AREA BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO ADD CADDO AND BOSSIER
PARISHES LATER THIS MORNING. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE THROUGH
MID MORNING AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW/SC ARKANSAS WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE BELOW FREEZING...MADE MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG THROUGH
MID MORNING AS WELL.

AFTER THE HAZARD THIS MORNING...SOUTH WINDS WILL RESULT IN A NICE
WARMUP TODAY WITH INCREASING CIRRUS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION. THIS DUE IN PART TO OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO DIG
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS STRONGLY
POSITIVE TILTED TROUGH WILL BECOME CUTOFF ACROSS OLD MEXICO BY
LATE WEEKEND BUT NOT BEFORE A PORTION OF THIS TROUGH EJECTS OUT
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY. SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BUT EVEN IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...CANNOT RULE OUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOST
ZONES. STRONG SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE
NEXT WORK WEEK AS MEDIUM RANGE PROGS ARE IN DESCENT AGREEMENT WITH
THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS OLD MEXICO BEGINNING TO EJECT OUT INTO SW TX
ON MONDAY AND INTO OUR REGION ON TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE
ADVANTAGEOUS IN GENERATING HIGH POPS ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY COMPARED TO THE GFS SO TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT COULD BE A LOT WETTER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING.

BEYOND THE EJECTION OF THIS CLOSED LOW...GFS REMAINS THE MUCH
WARMER AND STAGNANT MODEL CONCERNING ENERGY CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE
ROCKIES WHILE THE ECMWF QUICKLY SENDS ANOTHER TROUGH INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS VERY UNCERTAIN ATTM WHEN IT COMES TO
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  45  67  44  57 /   0   0  40  50  20
MLU  62  43  69  48  54 /   0   0  10  50  30
DEQ  63  40  60  38  55 /   0   0  50  30  10
TXK  63  44  64  42  57 /   0   0  50  50  20
ELD  63  40  66  42  54 /   0   0  30  50  30
TYR  66  47  62  37  56 /   0   0  50  30  20
GGG  66  46  65  40  56 /   0   0  50  50  20
LFK  67  48  68  43  57 /   0   0  40  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ003>006-011>014-018>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19