


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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867 FXUS64 KSHV 121130 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 630 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 - An uptick in convective coverage is expected today across the Four State Region and that will likely continue into Sunday as well. - Rain chances diminish through much of next week. - With rain chances diminishing, temperatures will be climbing with Heat Advisories likely becoming necessary next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Should see a slight increase in convective coverage today across the Four State Region compared to what we witnessed on Friday and this is due in part to a continued weakness in the upper level pattern as our region is wedged between upper ridging across the NE Gulf of America and upper ridging across the Four Corners Region of the Country. Our region however is more under the influence of the upper ridge to our east than the trough to our west where there is a threat for strong storms and excessive heavy rainfall. Our far northwest zones will be tickled by the heavy rainfall threat but for the most part, that threat should stay mostly to our west where Flood Watches are current in effect across portions of Oklahoma and Texas. Look for a rather active seabreeze once again on Saturday and again on Sunday pushing pops upwards to chance category areawide. While much of this convection will be tied to daytime heating, scattered convection could continue across our far west and northwest zones through the overnight hours tonight and again Sunday Night due to their proximity to upper forcing with the trough axis to our west. The inflated rain chances this weekend may allow for max temps to be shaved a degree or two but lower to middle 90s are still a pretty good bet both days. As we start the upcoming work week, the upper level trough axis to our northwest will begin to lift out to the north on Monday as upper ridging to our east begins to retrograde westward into the Lower Miss Valley. This should result in one more day of slightly inflated pops on Monday before we begin to feel the subsidence effects of the ridge in the form of higher temps. Max afternoon temperatures on Tue and Wed will be in the mid to upper 90s with temps near 100 degrees for Thursday and Friday. The deterministic GFS is more on board with an easterly wave influencing our region from the southeast late Wed thru Fri while the ECMWF is not quite on board with this scenario with more in the way of upper ridging holding firm across our region. The GFS scenario would result in a much wetter/milder late next week pattern while the ECMWF just the opposite with near triple digit heat continuing with little if any precipitation. The NBM is offering a nice solution between these two deterministic models attm and that is what our long term forecast will show. 13 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 For the 12/12Z TAFs, areas of showers are beginning to develop across northwest Louisiana and southern Arkansas. Meanwhile, brief reductions to MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible at daybreak, followed by some improvement in the mid to late morning, before showers and storms begin to develop. Looking for isolated to scattered storms to increase into the afternoon across much of area airspace. Southwest winds will increase to sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kts during the afternoon, with gusts of up to 15 kts possible. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, an isolated storm or two could reach severe limits producing damaging wind gusts and excessive heavy rainfall that could result in area flooding. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 94 77 95 77 / 50 20 30 20 MLU 96 74 96 76 / 40 20 30 20 DEQ 92 71 90 71 / 50 50 60 20 TXK 96 75 95 75 / 40 40 40 20 ELD 94 73 94 73 / 40 30 40 20 TYR 93 74 94 75 / 50 30 40 20 GGG 93 74 95 74 / 50 30 40 20 LFK 93 74 94 74 / 50 20 40 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...13 AVIATION...26