Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221518
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1018 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING THIS MORNING AND SHOULD GIVE
WAY TO A DESCENT CU FIELD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY.
LOOKING AT TWO AREAS OF CONCERN TODAY...THE FIRST OF WHICH IS A
700MB THETAE RIDGE DEPICTED ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HRRR
PICKS UP ON THIS FEATURE AND EVEN DEVELOPS ISOLATED CONVECTION
NEAR THE OUACHITAS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
ANY PRECIPITATION HOWEVER AS ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN APPEARS TO BE JUST TO OUR
SOUTHEAST IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHEAR AXIS THAT CAN BE SEEN
SPINNING ON VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/EAST CENTRAL LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THINKING IS THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY JUST SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR REGION.

A QUICK CHECK OF 15Z TEMPS SHOWING THAT VALUES ARE NEARLY
IDENTICAL TO THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME. DEWPOINTS ARE A
LITTLE LOWER HOWEVER. OVERALL...THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE...THUS NO UPDATE IS NECESSARY THIS MORNING.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
PATCHY IFR/MVFR FROM KLFK...TO KTYR...TO KSHV WITH VFR EXPECTED BY
MID MORNING. S/SW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WITH FEW GUSTS WEST.
ALOFT...SW FLOW EXTENDS INTO THE MID LEVELS LESS THAN 20KTS AND ABV
FL25O...WINDS ARE E. LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION TODAY UNDER A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SOUTH AND MORE OF THIS TO COME FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH A QUITE SIMILAR LATE SUMMER PATTERN TO PERSIST.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  95  73  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  95  72  97  72  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  96  74  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  95  73  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  97  75  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  96  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  97  75  98  74  98 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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