Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 021126
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS IN THE FORM OF IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINAL LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS NEAR 25KTS AT
2KFT IS HELPING TO BRING THIS MOISTURE NORTHWARD THIS MORNING.
MUCH LIKE THE CASE ON MONDAY...CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY THIS
MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING SCT IN THE 16-18Z TIMEFRAME. MODELS
ARE CONSISTENT WITH A LITTLE BIT MORE CONVECTION COVERAGE TODAY
COMPARED TO MONDAY AND FOR THAT REASON...HAVE MENTIONED VCTS AT
THE LFK/SHV/ELD/MLU TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CANNOT RULE IT OUT AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK
TERMINALS BUT CHANCES MUCH LESS AND AS A RESULT...I HAVE LEFT THIS
MENTION OUT.

COULD SEE SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY GUSTS ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING
NEAR 16-18KTS AT TIMES ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...WENT AHEAD AND MADE MENTION OF RETURNING MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS MOST TERMINAL LOCATIONS.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY WILL BE QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH AS SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE
RESULTED IN A COMPLEX FCST. FIRST...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS QUASI-
STATIONARY ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER WITH A LARGE COMPLEX OF TRAINING
CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A COUPLE OF THE HIGH
RES MODELS DEPICT THIS COMPLEX ORGANIZING AND DEVELOPING A STRONG
COLD POOL LATER THIS MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THIS SYSTEM
QUICKLY SURGING SSE TOWARDS THE CWA. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A
FAIRLY CONSISTENT EWD MOTION BUT SOME SIGNS OF A SWD SURGE MAY BE
BEGINNING ALONG THE PORTION OF THE LINE W OF I-35. FARTHER
SE...SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP WELL AHEAD OF THIS
COMPLEX ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/GRAVITY WAVE THAT ORIGINATED FROM
THE INITIAL SUPER-CELLULAR ACTIVITY WHICH IS NOW MOVING INTO N
CNTRL AR. AT THIS TIME...THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY DEFINITIVE SIGNS
OF A STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOL TO SUPPORT THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
COVER ALL BUT A SMALL PORTION OF E TX FOR THIS MORNING.

EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH T.S. DOLLY. MOISTURE RICH
ATMOSPHERE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALREADY
OCCURRING ALONG THE LA COAST. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTING
INCREASED TSTM COVERAGE TODAY BOTH IN NUMBERS AND AREA AND LATEST
THINKING HAS NOT REALLY CHANGED. THEREFORE...POPS WERE INCREASED
AND EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

CWA WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AS DOLLY
MOVES INTO MX. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO MORE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY
MOVE INTO THE CWA ON SATURDAY AND EVENTUALLY STALL SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF I-20. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS WILL BE FAIRLY PERSISTENT FOR NEXT WEEKEND
WITH THE FRONT LINGERING AROUND THE AREA BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE FRONTAL LOCATION. FRONT APPEARS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY STILL BE
ENOUGH OF THE OLD BOUNDARY LINGERING TO SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. SHWRS/TSTMS OCCURRING AT A GIVEN LOCATION DURING PEAK
HEATING CAN HOLD TEMPS DOWN QUITE WELL AND COMPLETELY BUST A FCST.
ON THE OTHER HAND...LACK OF CONVECTION CAN ALSO LEAD TO TEMPS
BEING QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. CURRENT THINKING IS
INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE ABLE TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT EVEN
IN PLACES THAT MAY NOT EXPERIENCE A LOT OF TSTM ACTIVITY. AS A
RESULT...FCST KEEPS TEMPS GENERALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  75  95  74  95 /  30  20  10  10  20
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  40  30  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  92  74  94  73  93 /  30  10  10  10  20
ELD  92  74  93  72  92 /  40  20  10  10  20
TYR  93  74  95  74  94 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  94  74  93 /  30  20  10  10  20
LFK  93  76  93  74  95 /  40  30  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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