Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY THIN
CIRRUS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION BUT EXPECT CUMULUS WORKING
NWRD FROM THE GULF COAST TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATER
TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS NUDGED A BIT FARTHER EAST
INTO OUR REGION...STILL LOOKS LIKE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA SO DID
EXPAND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER NORTH INTO S AR. AREAS FARTHER
WEST IN SE OK...ADJACENT SW AR AND NE TX WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE TO SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. NEW QPF HAS
ALSO BEEN LOADED INTO THE GRIDS TO GO ALONG WITH THE UPDATED POPS.
NEW TEXT PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY OUT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

AVIATION...
ASIDE FROM BRIEF LOW MVFR CIGS THAT MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 13-16Z
OVER NE TX/N LA...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
01/12Z TAF PERIOD. A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY...WITH ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED AT BEST...AND MAINLY
CONFINED TO DEEP E TX AND POSSIBLY THE SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA.
DID MAINTAIN VCTS MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS FOR THE LFK TERMINAL FOR
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED...BUT DROPPED MENTION ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE LOW
CONFIDENCE. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH BY
EARLY EVENING...WITH SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS AFTER 15Z...BUT DIMINISH TO 7-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR AND NICER WITH SOME LOWER DEW POINTS MIXED INTO OVER THE
AREA. AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH A LIGHT SW
WIND. WE HAVE GONE JUST ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AND MAY NEED MORE
WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS...BUT THE GROUND IS
STILL WET FROM FRESH RAIN IN MANY LOCALES AND WHILE A FEW MID 90S
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE DRIER AREAS WHERE SOIL WILL HEAT
QUICKER...THINK THE UPPER END OF LOW 90S MAY HOLD FOR TODAY.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST ON OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH THINNING CIRRUS IN THE SUBSIDENT
AREAS FROM OK IN AR AND TX AND LA. SOME ISOLATED OR MAYBE EVEN
WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY MAY CROP UP IF OUTFLOWS GET GOING...BUT
IT LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT FOR US TODAY...SO WHAT THE HEAT INDEX
IF AIR GOES WARMER. THE PATTERN LOOKS SIMILAR FOR TOMORROW WITH
STILL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE
BACK OUT WEST WITH A DIP SEEN EVEN NOW ON THE VAPOR OVER ID/MT.

THIS BODES WELL FOR MORE RAIN TO RETURN AND KEEP THE HEAT IN
CHECK FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO EVEN NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS THE MODELS ARE A
LITTLE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH AN MCV FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE CANADIAN GOES SUPER WET IN THE RED RIVER WATER SHED WHILE THE
GFS AND EURO INDICATE A WETTER DAY ON SATURDAY AREA WIDE THAN ANY
OTHER FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SO PLAN FOR SHELTER IF NEEDED THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF OUT ON THE WATER. NOAA WX RADIO IS STILL
THE BEST SOURCE FOR ALL HAZARDS INCLUDING SVR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
ARE NOT CARRIED ON CELL PHONES LIKE FLOODING AND TORNADO WARNINGS.
LIGHTNING IS AN UNDERRATED KILLER BY MANY AND GUSTY WINDS OFTEN
ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF THESE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE PATTERN LOOKS
TO DRY OUT FOR NEXT WEEK. THE RED RIVER IS STILL NEAR CREST WITH
31.00 FEET LAST HOUR AT SHV. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  93  75  94  76 /  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  75  94  75 /  20  20  10  20
DEQ  92  74  91  73 /  10  20  20  40
TXK  93  76  92  75 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  93  76  93  74 /  20  20  20  30
TYR  92  74  92  75 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  93  74  93  75 /  20  20  10  10
LFK  93  74  93  75 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19



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