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000
FXUS64 KSHV 040005
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
605 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015


.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF MOST OF THE REGION...RESULTING IN
MOSTLY LOW VFR CIGS ACROSS AREA WITH TEMPO HIGH MVFR CIGS...EXCEPT
FOR KELD...WHERE CIGS JUST BEGINNING TO RISE TO MVFR IN RECENT
WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME GRADUALLY LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR DURG EVE...POSSIBLY TO
IFR WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER 04/06Z. RW/TRW LIKELY DEVELOP JUST AHEAD
OF VERY STG COLD FRONT REACHING KTXK BY 04/18Z...AND THRU
KELD...KTYR...KGGG...AND LIKELY KSHV DURG AFTN. AIRMASS MAY BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE AT KMLU AND KLFK AFTER 04/21Z...JUST AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT...WITH A FEW STG TSTMS POSSIBLE. WINDS TO QUICKLY SHIFT FROM
NORTH AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH FROPA...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT KMLU. STEEP INVERSION IMMEDIATELY POST
FRONTAL WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET PATTERN WILL SET UP OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY ALONG INTERSTATE 20...WILL MOVE NORTH
TONIGHT BRINGING WARMER TEMPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA. THIS
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHERN
AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO RETURN
TO THE AREA TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. FREEZING TEMPS WILL
REACH THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT THE SHALLOW WEDGE OF
COLD AIR WILL BE BLOCKED BY THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA. EXPECT THE COLD AIR TO WRAP AROUND INTO THE AREA FROM
BOTH THE WEST AND EAST OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME.
THEREFORE THE WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY ISSUED WILL
BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS. IT WAS ALSO CANCELED FOR THE NORTHWEST
LOUISIANA PARISHES...AS THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT REACH
THIS AREA UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION ENDS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF HOUR
OR TWO OF MIXED RAIN AND SLEET FOR THIS AREA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A WINTER STORM. THE REMAINING AREAS STILL IN THE WATCH
WILL NOW INCLUDE ALL OF THE TEXAS COUNTIES ALONG INTERSTATE 30 AND
CAN EXPECT BETWEEN ONE AND TWO TENTHS OF ICE AND OR SLEET ACCUMULATIONS.
ANY SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN MOST COUNTIES WITH NO
MORE THAN ONE INCH FOLLOWING THE ICE AND SLEET. ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...THE RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE THE FREEZING TEMPS ARRIVE.
WEATHER FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WARM UP WILL BEGIN SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN./14/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  66  33  37  23 /  40  90  80  20  10
MLU  64  74  32  34  20 /  40  80  90  40  10
DEQ  51  55  30  37  22 /  80  90  90  10  10
TXK  56  59  26  36  21 /  70  90  90  10  10
ELD  59  62  30  34  19 /  50  90  90  20  10
TYR  59  62  30  38  25 /  60  90  80  10  10
GGG  62  65  32  38  24 /  50  90  80  10  10
LFK  65  75  37  40  27 /  40  80  80  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ073.

LA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ004>006-014.

OK...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ096-097-108-109-111-112.

&&

$$