Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301810
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
110 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.AVIATION...
STG TSTMS AND HEAVY RAIN MCS HAS MOVED JUST EAST OF AREA TO NEAR
MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT JUST EAST OF I-35...THUS
CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
AREA LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. SOME MVFR CIGS RIGHT
ALONG FRONT MAY SNEAK INTO KTYR...OR POSSIBLY KGGG OR KLFK FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTN...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL UNTIL PATCHY FOG SETTLES IN OVER VERY WET GROUND AND WITH
LGT NORTHERLY WINDS...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW LOW CLOUDS.
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND BECOME VFR BY
AROUND 01/15-16Z...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL REDEVELOPING CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF CWA THRU 01/18Z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
LOW LIFTING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT EXTENDING DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS IS WHAT TRIGGERED
OUR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THIS
POINT IN TIME...THE RADAR SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAINBAND IS
STILL OVER OUR EASTERN PARISHES...EXTENDING FROM MONROE TO COLFAX.
AS THIS BACK EDGE MOVES EAST...THINK THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE OVER FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER...SKIES ARE CLEARING
BEHIND THIS THIS BAND...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TIME TO
RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY FRONT.
THEREFORE...A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS...AS ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GIVEN THE RAIN FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...BELIEVE ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR
THIS TIMEFRAME. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MIDWEEK...AND
POTENTIALLY LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  40  30  20  60
MLU  80  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  79  56  80  57 /  20  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  30  20  10  60
ELD  80  62  83  60 /  40  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  20  10  20  60
GGG  82  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  85  67  84  67 /  40  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-
     138-151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

$$



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