Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 242339
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
639 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.AVIATION...
Band of convection across much of ne TX/se OK/sw AR has been
expanding in areal coverage, with this convection possible for
svrl hours at any given location/terminal. Some gradual
intensification of storms with more ltg strike indicators, and
increased potential of storms becmg stg/svr. Some sky clearing can
be expected following passage of storms, with south winds
remaining at least 10 to 15 kts. Cold front bringing west winds
arriving durg mrng, with marginal moisture convergence may occur
near the KMLU for a brief development of convection as the front
passes ovhd around midday Sat. Elsewhere, skc to continue or with
scattered stratocu decks. West winds mainly 10 to 15 kts durg
daytime, diminishing by 26/00z./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 228 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms along a line from Hugo to Tyler moving
east. Enhanced pressure gradient ahead of the front allowing for
winds speeds around 20 to 25 mph with higher gusts. Expecting
thunderstorms to continue to increase in coverage and strengthen
across the region through the afternoon and evening as mid-level
lapse rates increase with approaching upper-low. Expecting most of
the convection to be linear with straight line winds being the
main threat. Hail and isolated tornadoes also possible. Latest
model analysis from HRRR suggests that the line should be
approaching TXK/SHV/LFK by around 8 PM and Monroe around 1 AM.
Will likely be issuing a watch by late afternoon and early
evening. Lingering showers behind the front will be possible along
and south of I-20 through daybreak.

A progressive pattern expected through much of the forecast period
with cyclogenesis driven systems bringing showers and
thunderstorms along with a chance of severe weather on Sunday
night and again on Wednesday night. For Sunday night, there is a
slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the Red River Valley of
north Texas including McCurtain county OK, Red River, Franklin,
and Titus county in northeast Texas. Severe weather threat shifts
eastward to include mainly Southern Arkansas on Monday morning.
For Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will be areawide.

Otherwise, temperatures to range from highs in the 80s and lows in
the 50s and lower 60s through the forecast period. /05/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1008 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Showers beginning to move into east Texas this morning ahead of
a dryline across central Texas. Visible satellite imagery showing
well developed cyclonic feature across the Texas panhandle pushing
southeast toward the Arklatex. Lapse rates forecast to increase as
heights fall in response to approaching upper-low. Increased lapse
rates combined with enhanced low-level moisture will provide
instability to support strong thunderstorms later today. Will
maintain high temperatures slightly above guidance due to the
possibility of cloud breaks and compressional heating ahead of the
dryline. Otherwise, lake wind advisory remains in effect through 1
AM. Current forecast is on track, no updates at this time. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  76  53  84 /  90  20   0  10
MLU  64  79  53  83 /  90  50  10   0
DEQ  52  71  46  80 /  60  10   0  10
TXK  56  73  51  81 /  80  10   0  10
ELD  60  75  50  81 /  90  30   0  10
TYR  55  74  54  84 /  40   0   0  10
GGG  57  75  53  84 /  70  10   0  10
LFK  60  79  55  85 /  80  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$


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