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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271446
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
946 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The first cold front of the Autumn season has pushed into the Gulf
this Tuesday morning. Accordingly in the wake of the front, expect a
cooler and drier airmass to control our weather for the next several
days.

Current text and grid forecasts remain on track with current trends
and no updates planned for this morning. /VIII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 402 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 28/12z tafs VFR conditions...This morning high clouds of
of 25kft will remain over most terminals sites through 28/18Z
with skies clearing from north to south with unlimited VSBYs.
Winds will prevail out of the N ranging from 5 to 10 kts today and
become light and variable overnight. /21/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front has pushed well south of our region but the low level
drier airmass lags the front a good bit as current dewpoints are
still near 60 degrees as far north as southwest Arkansas into
northern Texas as of 08z. This drier air will continue to bleed
its way south into our region throughout today and the drying out
of the airmass from the bottom up should follow suite. IR imagery
shows widespread high cloud cover across our entire region and its
this cloud cover that will be a little slower to clear out from
north to south. Even given the lag in the drier airmass...temps
will feel very comfortable across the region today similar to
those experienced on Monday with highs ranging from near 80 to the
middle 80s. We should lose all cloud cover overnight across the
region and by this time...the dry airmass will be well in place
across our region with pwat values as low as one half inch. The
sfc ridge axis will be directly ovhd attm which should result in
very good radiational cooling conditions. As a result...overnight
low temps should fall well into the 50s areawide with even upper
40s possible across portions of southeast Ok into southwest Ar.

Looking aloft...an upper level trough will cut off across the
Great Lakes area and dig south into the Ohio Valley on Wed and
into the Tenn Valley on Thu. At the sfc...this will allow for
another stronger cold front to move southward into our region Wed
night...pushing completely through our region on Thu. Should see
compressional warming ahead of the front on Wed with highs well
into the 80s...perhaps pushing 90 degrees across portions of our
region before the drier/cooler air gets reinforced across our
region in the wake of the cold front Wed night into Thu.

The upper level trough across the Tenn Valley will eventually lift
back out to the north and east by the end of the work week into
the weekend in response to a vigorous upper level trough digging
into the Pacific Northwest. Upper flow across the Southern Plains
will remain flat which will keep the Gulf shut down when it comes
to moisture return. Thus with the dry airmass continuing to
dominate our region...expecting large diurnal spreads in
temperatures and no chances for precipitation through the upcoming
weekend into early next week. Eventually the Pacific longwave
trough will become our next weather maker but this is just beyond
our 7-day forecast.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  57  89  59 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  83  55  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  81  49  88  53 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  81  55  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  80  51  86  54 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  81  56  87  59 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  81  55  88  59 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  84  56  91  57 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

08