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000
FXUS64 KSHV 071219
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
619 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED INTERMITTENTLY ACROSS PARTS OF
E TX/NW LA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...RAP/NAM SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
MORNING SUPPORT SNOW FALLING OUT OF A VERY LOW CLOUD LAYER...WELL
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED
POP/WX GRIDS FOR THIS MORNING TO SHOW LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR WRN
HALF OF THE CWA. ONLY TRACE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY ON
ELEVATED SURFACES. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST SAT DEC 7 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE WINTER WEATHER FUN CONTINUES FOR THIS FCST PD. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS SHARP TEMP/DEW POINT GRADIENT ALONG OUR NWRN BORDER.
TEMPS ACROSS MCCURTAIN COUNTY STILL RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 20S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/LOW 20S AND LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUING TO LINGER. MEANWHILE...JUST TO THE NW...ADA AND
MCALESTER ARE SITTING IN THE LOWER TEENS WITH SINGLE DIGIT DEW
POINTS AND ONLY THIN CI OVHD. TERRAIN AND CLOUD COVER SEEM TO BE
THE CULPRITS FOR THE SHARP GRADIENT. TOUGH CALL THIS MORNING...
BUT DOESN`T SEEM LIKELY THAT TEMPS ACROSS THE HARD FREEZE WARNING
AREA ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO FALL SOME 10-12 DEGREES INTO THE TEENS
BEFORE SUNRISE STEADIES THE FALL. OF COURSE...CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE
OUT MID TEENS FOR EXTREME NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VALLEYS...BUT NOT A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT CONTINUING
THE HARD FREEZE WARNING. THUS IT HAS BEEN DROPPED.

NOW THAT THAT`S BEEN TAKEN CARE OF...WE MOVE ON TO THE WINTER WX
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
RETURN OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY THAT WILL OVERRUN COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE ONCE AGAIN. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. FCST TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT
LIQUID FOR AREAS S OF A TYLER TX TO EL DORADO AR LINE...WITH A
MIX OF FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP N OF THAT LINE. AS TEMPERATURES DROP
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER...PROFILES INDICATE SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE N OF A LINE FROM NACOGDOCHES TX TO CLARKS
LA...WITH SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS OUR EXTREME N. TEMPS ARE FCST TO
BEGIN RISING ABOVE FREEZING MID MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...
AND REMAINING PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
LIQUID. ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE/SLEET/SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LIGHT AND WELL BELOW CRITERIA FOR A WINTER WX ADVISORY.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
OUR S AND E...WITH TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP FROZEN/FREEZING PRECIP
OUT OF THE FCST. HOWEVER...MORE COLD AIR IS FCST TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY...SETTING UP ANOTHER OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A WINTRY MIX GENERALLY
ALONG AND N OF A RUSK TX TO FARMERVILLE LA LINE.

BASE OF THE UPPER TROF FINALLY INCHES CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEND PRECIP
PACKING...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE EURO IS INDICATING MORE OVERRUNNING
PRECIP ACROSS OUR SRN PORTIONS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...BUT
THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE CHOSEN TO STICK WITH THE ONGOING POP GRIDS
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME ATTM...WHICH SEEM TO PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION.

A GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH SW
FLOW RETURNING FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SW FLOW FOR US MEANS MORE
RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
FAIRLY SMOOTH CLOUD BASES...IN THE IFR/LOW MVFR RANGE...ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS IN CWA AS STEEP LOW LVL INVERSION HAS TRAPPED LOW LVL MSTR
JUST ABOVE SFC. VERY LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE STILL LIKELY
OCCURRING...ESPECIALLY CURRENTLY AT KGGG TERMINAL...WHERE VSBY IS
NOW MVFR. NORTH WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 10 KTS
ACROSS AREA. THESE WINDS WILL HOLD FOR DAYTIME HOURS...BECMG MORE
NELY. SOME GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS BY MIDDAY...BUT WITH ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE IN SW FLOW ALOFT...LIGHT PRECIP WILL BEGIN. AND ONLY A
SLIGHT EVAP COOLING MAY CREATE A WINTRY MIX OF MAINLY A FINE
FREEZING DRIZZLE. NOW THAT COLDER TEMPS IN PLACE...POTENTIAL FOR A
THIN GLAZE IF THIS DOES OCCUR...MAINLY JUST NORTH OF I-20. THUS...A
CLOSE CALL TO SVRL OF THE AREAL TERMINALS...CLOSE TO THE I-20
CORRIDOR AFTER 08/00Z. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  37  29  40  32  42 /  20  30  20  10  30
MLU  37  31  41  35  43 /  20  50  50  50  50
DEQ  32  24  34  24  37 /  20  20  10  10  10
TXK  32  24  36  27  39 /  20  20  10  10  20
ELD  33  26  37  28  41 /  20  30  30  10  30
TYR  32  26  39  27  39 /  20  20  10  10  20
GGG  35  26  40  30  41 /  20  20  20  10  20
LFK  38  32  43  36  43 /  20  30  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12