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872
FXUS64 KSHV 240831
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
331 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cold pool boundary across Northeast Texas into portions of West
Central Louisiana way out pacing any operational model runs this
morning which makes the short term portion of the forecast very
difficult to nail down. This boundary should continue moving very
slowly to the south and west through the remainder of the predawn
hours and should be just about through our area near or shortly
after sunrise. Meanwhile, looking upstream, a surface cold front
was located well north of this current convection or somewhere
near the Middle Red River Valley of N TX into Southeast Oklahoma
and South Central Arkansas. This boundary will very slowly
continue to move southward towards the I-20 Corridor through the
day. Upstream radar mosaics showing post frontal convection across
the Upper and Middle Red River Basin of N TX and S OK likely tied
to the 850mb boundary that is moving more southeast than east and
thus, have my doubts as to if this convection will make it into
our northern most zones as some progs are hinting at. As the front
continues to push southward today, convection will likely become
more scattered along and ahead of the boundary and this should be
mainly south of the I-20 Corridor so have trended pops from low
end chance variety across our northern zones to likely category
across our southern zones for this morning cutting pops back to
slight chance north and chance variety south by afternoon.

While the sfc cold front should make steady progress southward
today/tonight, the 850mb boundary will be much slower to push
southward in the wake of the sfc boundary. Its not until we can
push this elevated boundary through the region that we can
eliminate pops and for that reason, kept slight chance/chance pops
tonight through Sunday with the highest chance pops across our
southern most zones both periods. Drier airmass will eventually
filter in from the north and east with more pleasant overnight low
temperatures beginning Sunday Night and continuing through at
least Monday night along with more milder dewpoints.

Looking towards the middle and later half of the upcoming work
week, the strong ridge of high pressure across the southwest CONUS
will try to break down which should begin to shut down our
northwest flow pattern across the Southern Plains/Lower Miss
Valley. The ridge axis however will remain across Northern Mexico
into the Southeast CONUS with a weakness in the form of a shear
axis extending across the Lower Miss Valley. It will be this shear
axis that should result in scattered convection beginning once
again across our region in the Wed-Fri timeframe with the best
chance of afternoon convection expected across our southeast half
where atmospheric moisture will be greater. We try to lose the
influence of this shear axis by late next weekend with an upper
ridge trying to build over our region which should shut down the
precipitation machine somewhat if we can keep a developing upper
trough far enough to our north by next weekend. Stayed close to
superblend Min Temps through much of the medium and long range
portions of the forecast but did bump up Max Temps for these same
periods, closer to the MEX MOS temps.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  69  86  67 /  50  30  30  10
MLU  86  69  86  65 /  40  30  30  10
DEQ  85  64  88  62 /  30  10  10  10
TXK  84  66  87  65 /  30  20  10  10
ELD  85  66  86  63 /  30  20  10  10
TYR  86  70  86  67 /  60  30  30  20
GGG  86  70  87  67 /  60  30  30  10
LFK  87  73  87  69 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

13