Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 031544
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1044 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
STG ZONAL FLOW UNDERNEATH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH...PASSING NORTH OF
AREA. THUS...SOME WRAPAROUND CLOUDS IN PLACE AROUND 935 MB...BUT
WILL EXIT RATHER QUICKLY BY TONIGHT. LATE MORNING TEMPS IN THE 60S
WILL RISE EASILY TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S THIS AFTN...WITH VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER AND NORT WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. UPDATED TO MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR SKY COVER ONLY./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS AS WE GO THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID
MORNING HOURS WOULD BE THE ELD/MLU TERMINALS WHERE CLOUD COVER
ATTM IS NEAR 35-45HDFT BUT COULD LOWER TO AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS. ANY CEILINGS ACROSS THESE TWO TERMINAL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BEGIN SCATTERING OUT BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE A CU FIELD DEVELOP AT THE TXK/SHV/LFK
TERMINAL LOCATIONS AS WELL BUT AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
3KFT.

NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 5-10KTS TODAY WILL DECOUPLE
THIS EVENING. EXPECT INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A WELCOME CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE
AS A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD EWD OVER THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE ALONG ITS ERN PERIPHERY...AN UPPER TROUGH IS
SEEN DIVING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP.
THIS TROUGH WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE OUR REGION TODAY AND LEAVE DEEP
NW FLOW IN ITS WAKE BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF THE REGION. BEHIND IT...EXPECT TO
SEE SEVERAL DAYS OF PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
MORNINGS LOWS WILL ACTUALLY RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
AS A REINFORCING DRY FRONT USHERS IN EVEN COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY.

AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATE WEEK...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
BACK NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL
LOOKS TO COME LATE SUNDAY BUT MORE SO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IN
THE MEANTIME...WE WILL HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
TO HELP ALLOW OUR AREA LAKES AND RIVERS TO BEGIN RECEDING AFTER
SEVERAL RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL EVENTS. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  52  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  74  51  79  54 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  71  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  72  51  78  52 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  72  49  78  51 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  73  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  51  81  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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