Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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352
FXUS64 KSHV 231652
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1052 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Forecast is on track down to the last set of hourly temps and the
coming 17Z. This remains on a diurnal curve for cooler than
average temperatures for this time of year. A chilly 1024mb high
pressure center is elongated from Arkadelphia and El Dorado to
Shreveport and Longview. No changes needed with winds to remain
light and variable around that air mass contour which will remain
in place today and slowly weaken. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 625 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period.
Variable/calm wind conditions of early this morning will more or
less prevail throughout the TAF cycle, though a few terminals may
veer to to south-southwest with speeds of 3-5 kts expected.
Shortly after sunset, variable/calm conditions will make a return.
Otherwise, FEW-SCT VFR - SKC will make for a pleasant flight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Surface high pressure centered over the heart of the Ark-La-Tex
this morning under mostly clear skies has allowed for near-prime
radiational cooling conditions. Temperatures as of the latest 10Z
observations range from the mid 20s north to mid 30s south with a
few more degrees left to fall even with some quick passing cirrus
moving through the cold NW flow aloft. Cirrus will likely exit the
area by daybreak with abundant sunshine expected this Thanksgiving
Day as daytime highs reach back toward 60 degrees this afternoon.
Another chilly night lies ahead, albeit not quite as cold as this
morning as lows will range through the 30s across most of the area.
A warming trend will begin to take shape by Friday as southerly
winds return to the region with high pressure shifting east of our
forecast area. This will send our temperatures back closer to
seasonal averages and even above average by Saturday as low to mid
70s are expected in advance of our next cold front arriving later
in the day on Saturday. This front will be rather uneventful with
little more than a wind shift back to the north for Sunday and
very minimal impact on temperatures. Upper ridging will begin to
nudge closer to the region by Sunday with afternoon highs pushing
either side of 70 degrees.

The upper ridge to our southwest will become even more influential
early next week with temperatures warming a bit more on Monday and
even into Tuesday before our next cold front is due to arrive late
Tuesday. This front will have slightly more moisture to work with
compared to the last few so have continued to advertise slight to
low chance POPs for Tuesday into Wednesday with the passage of the
front. Projected rainfall amounts are still less than impressive
so don`t expect much if any relief in ongoing drought conditions.
The remainder of next week through Friday looks dry and seasonal
as temperatures go as we turn the page from November to December.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  39  69  47 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  58  35  66  44 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  61  35  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  38  68  47 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  59  34  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  61  41  71  49 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  60  38  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  62  38  71  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/29/19



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