Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160248
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
848 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 16/00Z terminals the mostly VFR flight categories over
much of ArkLaTex with the exception of KTYR will deteriorate to
MVFR during the late evening and early morning, followed by a
decrease to IFR and below for terminals across the area.
Conditions to deteriorate to IFR across area terminals overnight
with showers and thunderstorms possible across KTYR and KGGG and
possibly KLFK. A warm front will be lifting Northeast over the
region tonight as associated surface low pressure system that
lifts North across Texas and into Oklahoma, followed by a cold
front moving East into the area that will drop Southwest from the
low pressure center. Expect Southeast winds of 7-12 knots becoming
more southerly into early Monday, with a shift to west during the
late morning to mid day hours Monday over Southeast Oklahoma,
Western sections of Northeast Texas, and extreme Southwest
Arkansas. For Monday the winds will be increasing to 10-15 knots
with higher gusts. /056

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Warm frontal boundary has only been pushed slightly to the north
across extreme northern fringe of area as se winds 5 to 10 mph
began over ne TX earlier today. Some fog may occur overnight,
along this boundary and also across eastern portions of area where
winds will remain fairly lgt. However, any organized fog
development will be hampered by intrusion of showers increasing
into ne TX this aftn and will begin to spread eastward this eve.
Line of stgr tstms associated with pacific front, stretching nwd
across western TX into panhandle attm. SE winds increasing
gradually across ne TX, with stronger pressure gradients overnight
rather than daytime Monday, and thinking to remain just under lwa
criteria. Although wind shears not off the charts by any means, a
decent directional shear from low lvl se to mid lvl westerlies
around 60 kts will be enough to maintain stg updrafts with line of
storms and gusty winds may be expected, as well as some heavy
rainfall possible as a few storms may train in slow movg front.
This pacific front will remain quasi stnry in deepening sw flow,
providing chances for rain to continue through the week, although
much of area will probably see a lull mid week. Stg short wave
may bring another round of vigorous convection late Thursday
through the overnight, ending Friday morning. However, the dirty
sw flow to continue to bring seasonally warm temps and possibly
one more round of convection late in the wknd. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  74  55  62 /  50  70  70  60
MLU  59  74  63  69 /  20  40  50  70
DEQ  53  67  44  59 /  60  80  20  20
TXK  56  69  50  59 /  60  80  60  30
ELD  55  70  56  62 /  30  60  70  60
TYR  63  70  50  59 /  70  80  50  30
GGG  63  71  52  61 /  60  80  70  40
LFK  64  76  59  65 /  50  70  70  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07


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