Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 261955
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
255 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS NOTED ON KSHV RADAR THIS AFTN. WHILE THE TUTT
CONTINUES TO STIR UP SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NRN GULF COAST...IT IS HAVING DECIDEDLY LESS INFLUENCE ACROSS OUR
REGION TODAY VERSUS MONDAY. AT ANY RATE...THE WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE IS MAKING FOR COOLER TEMPS TODAY.

A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR VERY EFFECTIVE MIXING DURING WEDNESDAY AFTN.
WHILE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID 90S...DEW POINTS AS
LOW AS 60 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR HEAT
INDEX VALUES BELOW 100 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN SEVERAL DAYS.

CHANCES FOR ISOLD CONVECTION WILL PICK BACK UP THURSDAY...AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BE FORCED EWD BY AN APPROACHING TROF. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AS THE TROF BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THE UPPER TROF IS FCST TO DAMPEN/MOVE
EWD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE ABSENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO HANG OUT OVER THE E COAST OF THE U.S. AS A RESULT
OF CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL RUN NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /12/

&&

AVIATION... LATEST VIS IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS OUR INVERTED
TROUGH OR TUTT LOW ACROSS THE S LA COAST...NOT LOOKING NEARLY AS
DEFINED AS WAS THE CASE THIS TIME ON MONDAY. 12Z NAM OUTPUT NOT
NEARLY AS SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP COVERAGE TODAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
RUNS. HAVING SAID THAT...LATEST HRRR STILL SUGGESTS ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
REGION BUT THE KEY WORD IS ISOLATED.

FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE...WILL NOT MAKE MENTION OF VCSH/VCTS AS
COVERAGE WILL JUST BE TOO SPARSE. CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 4-6KFT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. CU FIELD SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.

KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN AT THE MLU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT BUT
MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST MAY DETOUR THAT FROM
OCCURRING. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  95  74  94  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
MLU  69  94  71  93  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
DEQ  71  93  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
TXK  72  93  70  92  73 /  10  10  10  20  20
ELD  69  93  68  91  71 /  10  10  10  20  20
TYR  73  96  75  95  76 /  10  10  10  20  20
GGG  71  96  73  94  74 /  10  10  10  20  20
LFK  74  96  75  95  76 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12




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