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000
FXUS64 KSHV 061225
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
625 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...A WIDE RANGE OF CEILING CATEGORIES ACROSS OUR AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH LOW VFR ACROSS THE E TX SITES AND SHV/TXK.
FARTHER EAST AT ELD/MLU...IFR CIGS AROUND 5 HND FT CONTINUE TO LINGER
AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WRAPS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF ACROSS
S AR/N LA...WHERE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TO AFFECT MOST TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT RAIN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION BY AROUND MIDDAY
WITH CIGS SLOWLY IMPROVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AT ELD/MLU. MOST
SITES WILL SEE SKC CONDITIONS AFTER 07/00Z WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUD
COVER AT OUR ERN MOST TERMINALS. WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A NLY COMPONENT
FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SPEEDS FROM 5-10 KTS THROUGH 07/00Z...
THEN BECOMING LGT AND VRBL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST THU MAR 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR LOOK THIS MORNING INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST TEXAS WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS DROPPING ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. SHOWERS EXTENDED
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FROM SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA. THIS UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ON TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES OVERNIGHT WITH BRIEF
RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY
PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UNTIL THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FOUR
STATE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES AS A SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS HELP
DRAW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE THE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES PACIFIC MOISTURE. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH ALOFT BECOMES
CUT OFF FROM THE MEAN FLOW WITH A SHEAR AXIS PARKED OVERHEAD. A
SURFACE LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM SOUTH TEXAS ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE
UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSED OFF AND ROTATE AROUND OVER MEXICO AND
INTO WEST TEXAS FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST LATTE ON TUESDAY
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20. TOWARD MID WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH ALOFT STARTS
TO AMPLIFY SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES WITH OTHER WEAKER
DISTURBANCES MOVING IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BROAD TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND OVER NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE DRYING OUT THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF
THURSDAY WITH THE REST IF THE WORK WEEK DRY. LOOKING AT THE MODEL
TRENDS AND TEMPERATURES...TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST OF THE COLD
WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...TO AT LEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  34  65  47  70 /  20   0   0   0  40
MLU  48  35  62  45  69 /  60   0   0   0  20
DEQ  52  28  60  40  64 /   0   0   0   0  50
TXK  52  34  62  45  67 /   0   0   0   0  50
ELD  50  31  63  43  69 /  30   0   0   0  30
TYR  55  34  66  48  66 /   0   0   0   0  50
GGG  54  33  63  46  69 /   0   0   0   0  40
LFK  57  34  65  48  69 /  20   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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