Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 130334
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
934 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK REINFORCING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SEEN ON SFC OBS...WITH LGT NE
WINDS AND FALLING DEWPOINTS OVER SOUTHERN AR. EXPECT TEMPS IN
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WEAK CAA TO FALL CLOSE TO 15 DEGREES FROM 9
PM READINGS. A FEW CLOUDS WILL STREAM INTO MAINLY NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. NO UPDATE NEEDED
TONIGHT./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 13/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY AND
COOLER AIR MASS ADVANCING IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SKC CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT PASSING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
LIGHT N/NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WITH
SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST
AREAS ARE SEEING A NICE WARM UP DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR IS JUST N OF OUR REGION...AND
WILL BE DIVING SWD THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL SPELL MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR SATURDAY...NEAR OR EVEN BELOW MID
FEBRUARY NORMALS. THIS AIRMASS WILL NOT LAST LONG...HOWEVER...AS
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS OFF OF THE E COAST AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. SLY SFC FLOW WILL RESUME
QUICKLY AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES EWD...AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS TX...BRINGING LL MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR TO OUR REGION. AS
A RESULT...SOME VERY LIGHT SHWRS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DISCUSSION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AS TO WHETHER TEMPS
WOULD BE ABLE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE THE ONSET OF PRECIP
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT GUI HAS COME IN WARMER THIS RUN...AND VERY
FEW SITES LOOK TO EVEN GET DOWN TO THE MARK. HAVE CONTINUED TO
KEEP ONLY LIQUID PRECIP IN THE FCST...AS THE POSSIBILITY OF EVEN A
BRIEF HOUR OR SO OF FZRA SEEMS VERY REMOTE...EVEN FOR OUR FAR N
COUNTIES.

RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...AS THE TROF AND
LL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO DEEPEN. HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY AFTER A FEW DAYS OF A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH.
STILL A FEW DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EXIST...PARTICULARLY
WITH THE MUCH FASTER NAM SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS/EURO SEEM TO
BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO APPEAR
VERY LIMITED FOR OUR REGION...AND THUS ONLY ISOLD THUNDER IS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING SEVERE.

DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...AS SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR ABOUND IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO DRIFT EWD OVER THE GULF
STATES...AND THE SFC RIDGE MOVES OUT TO THE E COAST. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  40  53  39  59 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  37  48  33  59 /   0   0   0  20
DEQ  35  49  35  51 /   0   0   0  30
TXK  36  49  36  54 /   0   0   0  30
ELD  35  47  32  55 /   0   0   0  20
TYR  42  59  47  64 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  42  55  43  62 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  47  59  46  66 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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