Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 151604
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1104 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWRD ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS MORNING...IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG
FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE ODILE WHICH CONTINUES TO
MOVE UP THE CALIFORNIA BAJA PENINSULA. SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN HAS
OCCURRED OVER PARTS OF NE TX THIS MORNING WITH TYR MEASURING A
HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH AND MOSTLY TRACE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE INCLUDING
AT GGG. ALTHOUGH SOME THINNING OF THE CLOUDS MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT WARMING QUITE AS FAST AS EXPECTED
SO WENT AHEAD AND LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MOST
AREAS EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF N CNTRL AND NE LA WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
DELAYED IN ARRIVING...THUS CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S COMPARED TO 70S FARTHER WEST. OTHER THAN THAT...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FOR TODAY. UPDATED
PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

AVIATION...
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART...THERE ARE SOME
LOW VFR CIGS OVER E TX. RADAR SHOWS SOME VIRGA/LIGHT RA SHWRS ON
APPROACH TO KTYR AND KTXK IN THE SHORT TERM AND PERHAPS AREA WIDE
SPREAD IN THE EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE OK/TX STATE
LINES N OF KDAL MOVES EASTWARD. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR NOW
WITH AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. CIGS AND VSBY MAY KEEP VFR. SFC
WINDS ARE LIGHT N AND RIGHT OFF THE DECK TOO...BUT VEER TO SE AND
THEN SW BY 3 OR 4KFT. ALOFT...WE SEE SW/W WINDS 10-30KTS. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
MOSTLY LIGHT SHWRS EXTENDING FROM W CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL OK AND
NERN AR...APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THESE AREAS. THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR SE OVER THE
LA/MS GULF COAST. THE EURO SEEMS TO BE ONE OF THE ONLY MODELS THAT
IS INITIALIZING WELL WITH REGARD TO THE ONGOING SHWRS. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE TRANSLATES EWD TODAY...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AS TO
WHETHER THESE SHWRS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR REGION
TODAY...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PRESENCE/INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. THE EURO DOES PLACE SOME QPF ACROSS OUR NERN AREAS...SO
HAVE GONE AHEAD WITH SOME 20 POPS. ADDITIONALLY...THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY/THE SEA BREEZE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION MAINLY DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND SOME OF THIS COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR EXTREME SRN
AREAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...AS
THE UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DIGS SEWD AND
INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANT BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION
A FEW DAYS AGO. TEMP GUIDANCE HAS WARMED UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF RUNS...WHICH CAN BE EXPLAINED BY THE FACT THAT THE SCT NATURE
OF ANY CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD BIT OF DAYTIME
HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVHD AND TO THE E DURING
FRIDAY...AS A MORE POTENT UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE WRN U.S.
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE ARE FCST TO BE SWEPT UP INTO THIS
PROGRESSIVE TROF AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY.
MODELS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROF WILL EQUAL
SOME RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF OUR REGION DURING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH US CLOSER TO COOLER FALL
TEMPERATURES. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  89  70  89  70  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
MLU  90  68  89  67  90 /  20  20  30  20  20
DEQ  83  65  85  67  86 /  20  20  20  10  30
TXK  84  66  86  68  87 /  20  20  30  10  30
ELD  87  66  87  66  88 /  20  20  30  10  20
TYR  87  71  88  71  89 /  20  20  30  20  30
GGG  88  71  89  70  90 /  20  20  30  20  30
LFK  90  72  90  72  91 /  20  20  50  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




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