Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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472
FXUS64 KSHV 202049
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
349 PM CDT WED JUL 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper-level ridge remains firmly anchored over the
Central CONUS, and this ridge will continue to be the primary
feature in the pattern for the next seven days. Temperatures have
continued to steadily climb into the mid and upper 90s in most
locations. Diurnally-driven convection has also developed east of
a line from Bethel, OK, to Monroe, LA. Similar to the last few
days, additional isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop through the early evening before
gradually dissipating after sunset with the loss of daytime
heating. A persistence forecast will continue to be the rule
through at least Friday. Daytime temperatures will continue to
approach 100 degrees F and only spotty showers and thunderstorms
are expected during peak heating. The Heat Advisory was maintained
through Thursday evening but will likely need to be extended in
time in later forecast packages for most of the CWA.

By Friday, the upper ridge should begin to flatten and retrograde
towards the Four Corners Region. The flow aloft should become more
easterly or southeasterly. The resulting increase in deep layer
moisture may allow for increased coverage of daytime thunderstorms
across the area during the weekend and into early next week.
However, the lack of any large scale forcing and surface
boundaries will generally keep any convection scattered and
unorganized. Medium range models suggest a couple of weak
shortwave troughs may move across the Central Plains late in the
forecast package, which could result in another increase in
convective coverage.

Otherwise, no significant chances for widespread wetting rains are
expected. Therefore, daytime high temperatures will likely
continue to range in the mid to upper 90s. Many locations will
approach or exceed 100 degrees F within the next seven days.
Temperature variations each day will be the result of cloud cover
and affects from isolated showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures
may be cooled slightly back into the lower 90s next Tuesday or
Wednesday due to increased clouds and greater convective coverage
during the day.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  99  79  99 /  20  20  10  20
MLU  78  99  77  99 /  20  20  10  30
DEQ  76  97  76  99 /  20  20  10  20
TXK  78  98  78  99 /  20  20  10  20
ELD  77  98  77  98 /  20  20  10  20
TYR  78  99  78 100 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  78  99  77 100 /  10  20  10  20
LFK  77  97  76  98 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

09



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