Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 211628
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1028 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SATURATED MOISTURE SEEN EXTENDING TO 600 MB ON 12Z ROAB AT KSHV....
SUGGESTS INTERMITTENT RAINFALL TO CONTINUE TODAY. WHEN COMPARED TO
SURROUNDING RAOBS...ALSO SUGGESTS BEST AXIS OF MSTR ACROSS NE
TX/NW LA. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS MOST OF REGION...WITH PERHAPS
ISOLATED CLAP OF THUNDER THIS AFTN FOR NE TX/SE OK. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS A CAT OR TWO AREAWIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATING LACK OF WARMING THIS AFTN FROM CURRENT READINGS./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE TAF FORECAST ENDING AT 22/12Z...EXPECT OCCASIONAL RAIN
AND FOG THIS MORNING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO IFR AT SOME
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. AFTER 15Z...ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EAST TEXAS. ALL PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS GRADUALLY
BECOMING VFR...AROUND 5 KFT. SOME MVFR CIGS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP...AFTER 22/08Z...AGAIN FAVORING THE EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AS ADVERTISED...DISTURBED NEAR-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT HAS COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TO PRODUCE SHWRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS MORNING. SHWRS ALONG WITH SOME ISOLD TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION TODAY AS DAYTIME
HEATING HELPS TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY AS WE MOVE INTO
SATURDAY...AS THE STRENGTHENING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA THIS
MORNING MOVES EWD INTO TX. THE SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER
CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD TSTMS TO THE
REGION. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS DAYS...THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH/NEGATIVE TILT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE
CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY A LACK OF SFC
BASED INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS AND SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AT THE APPROACH OF THE TROF. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF DEEP E TX WHERE THE MOST
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION WILL BE FOUND.

THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE CARRIED NELY QUICKLY...AS A LARGE-SCALE
UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUNDAY. RAIN SHOULD COME
TO AN END FOR THE MOST PART BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAY NIGHT`S WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING MONDAY...TAKING OUR TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WORK WEEK. FOR NOW...THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS TO HAVE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IN STORE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  54  71  60  73 /  70  30  60 100  20
MLU  65  50  71  60  75 /  50  20  30 100  20
DEQ  58  53  66  54  69 /  70  60  70 100  30
TXK  59  52  68  57  71 /  70  50  60 100  30
ELD  62  50  69  58  70 /  50  30  50 100  20
TYR  65  58  70  57  73 /  60  40  80 100  10
GGG  64  56  70  58  73 /  60  40  70 100  10
LFK  68  57  72  61  76 /  60  20  70 100  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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