Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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877
FXUS64 KSHV 021232
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
732 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE BEEN DOWN
FOR THE MOST PART...SIGNALING THE LIKELY END FOR OUR OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD STRONG STORM OR TWO...BUT
COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL NO LONGER WARRANT THE NEED FOR A
CONVECTIVE WATCH. HAVE COORDINATED WITH SPC AND OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES...AND WE HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND CANCEL SVR WATCH
137. HAVE UPDATED THE WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY...BUT NO OTHER
CHANGES WILL BE MADE ATTM. /12/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF PIVOTS EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WORKING TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING CONVECTION...AND A FEW STORMS HAVE
BECOME SEVERE. SPC HAS UPGRADED THE RISK AREA INTO THE MARGINAL
CATEGORY...AND SVR WATCH 137 IS NOW OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
REGION.

SHWRS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TODAY THROUGH
THIS EVENING...AS THE DAMPENING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EWD. OUR
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY DUE TO THE
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A MUCH
COOLER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN TONIGHT...COOLING OUR TEMPS DOWN TO
BELOW NORMAL AND FINALLY BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR RAIN TO AN END.

LARGE SCALE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY SHIFT EWD BY MIDWEEK...AND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE NATION`S MIDSECTION AS IT
BECOMES SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND ANOTHER MOVING ONTO
THE CA COAST. THIS WILL SPELL AN EXTENDED PD OF DRY WEATHER...AND
TEMPS WILL SNAP BACK UP TO NEAR AND EVEN ABOVE NORMAL WITH DRY AIR
IN PLACE...SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...AND SUNSHINE
PLENTY.

RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO CREEP BACK INTO THE FCST BY THE END OF THE PD
AND BEYOND...AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  53  73  54 /  70  10  10   0
MLU  74  57  74  53 /  70  20  10   0
DEQ  72  48  72  49 /  40  10  10   0
TXK  72  51  71  52 /  60  10  10   0
ELD  72  53  73  52 /  60  10  10   0
TYR  71  50  72  54 /  70  10  10   0
GGG  72  51  72  53 /  70  10  10   0
LFK  73  54  74  53 /  70  10  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12



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