Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160447
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DUE TO A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND MOISTURE INFLUX
FROM HURRICANE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. VCSH AND OCCASIONAL -RA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TYR...GGG...LFK..AND TXK OVERNIGHT AND MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT LFK FROM 09Z THROUGH 13Z TUESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL POSSIBLE REGION WIDE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AT MOST SITES BY 06Z. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT SHWRS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO THE CWA. MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR IS NOT REACHING THE GROUND AS PRECIP HAS BEEN
RECORDED AT VERY FEW OBS SITES AND CEILINGS ARE STILL REGISTERING
ABOVE 12 KFT. SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY VALUES HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HRS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS BUT HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE WIND GRIDS BUT THE MAJORITY OF
TONIGHT/S FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. /09/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS SEVERAL FEATURES COMBINING TO PRODUCE
THE MOSTLY OVERCAST CONDITIONS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...WHICH
REVEALS MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WHILE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING FED NEWRD
FROM HURRICANE ODILE FAR OUT FROM US OVER THE CALIFORNIA BAJA
REGION. IN ADDITION...REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH BROUGHT US
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PAST WEEKEND IS STILL TO OUR
SOUTH AND IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WITH A
MODEST CU FIELD WORKING NWRD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SRN TIER.
ALL THIS TO SAY WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS FOR
THIS EVENING...MORE LIKELY JUST SHWRS AS THE DENSE CLOUD COVER
TODAY HAS LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW MORNINGS AS THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND RISING DEW
POINTS WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING OFF AS MUCH.

LOOKING AHEAD TO TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH
WILL CREEP SWRD INTO OUR REGION BEFORE STALLING NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD
BE MORE ACTIVE THAN WHAT WE SAW TODAY AND WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY SO CHANCE POPS WILL COVER MUCH OF
THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE ADDED INSTABILITY
FROM SFC HEATING. BY LATE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...RAIN CHANCES
LOOK TO BE ENHANCED ONCE AGAIN AS ANOTHER WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
SHIFTS SWRD AND ABSORBS SOME OF THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE ODILE. BY FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL TAKE HOLD AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
MORE ROBUST LONG WAVE TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. UNTIL THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  90  71  91  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
MLU  70  90  69  91  68 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEQ  66  85  67  87  67 /  20  20  10  30  20
TXK  66  86  68  88  68 /  20  30  10  30  20
ELD  67  87  67  89  66 /  20  30  10  20  20
TYR  70  89  72  89  72 /  20  30  20  30  20
GGG  70  89  71  90  70 /  20  30  20  30  20
LFK  72  90  71  90  73 /  20  50  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/09/20





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