Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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068
FXUS64 KSHV 291743
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.AVIATION...
All terminal locations enjoying vfr conditions this afternoon but
cu field is growing across the region. Latest watervapor imagery
showing a remnant mcv spinning across the Middle Red River Valley
of Ne Tx into S Ok and this feature will continue to move slowly
eastward throughout the afternoon/evening. Already seeing some
widely scattered convection across portions of Sw Ar and 12z progs
hinting at this possibility developing in the vicinity of the Txk
airport as well later this afternoon. Made mention of this in the
18z taf package with confidence not high enough to include any
similar mention across the other terminals. Any convection should
dissipate this evening to our north.

Added some vsby restrictions in a few terminals after midnight
which should hang around through 14z on Mon before vfr conditions
continue.

Winds should be light and variable for the remainder of the
day...becoming light or calm overnight with a southeast wind
prevailing through the morning hours Mon less than 10kts.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1129 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016/

UPDATE...
Raise temps a bit and add some slight/chance pops for late p.m.

DISCUSSION...
Lots of low clouds VFR West with somewhat cooler upper 70s and
low 80s on track. Overhead AC at SHV is thinning now and has
limited our cu thus far, but overheating this afternoon with at
least low 90s seems certain with 87 top of the last hour; due to
light winds and sun breaking through. Farther East, we see 87 at
Ruston and 88 and ESF both calm or near. So low 90s seem prudent
there as well. Otherwise...HRRR and GFS bring some development
along I-30 down into Northern Caddo and Bossier by 21-24Z. We
have expanded slight and added chance pops late this afternoon as
a weakness seen on water vapor over NE TX attm moves overhead at
peak heating.

Our Low level winds remain light West at 5mph up to 3kft veer
to NW 5kts up to 8kft. Sfc winds remain light west West and calm
East. We could need some mid 90s if that keeps up. Any isolated or
scattered Thunderstorms would likely move East early and end up
outflow driven to the NE as they build into the mid levels
steering is from the NE back toward the SW and then Westerlies
are strong from 15kft on up for any spreading tower anvils where
excellent outflow is from the W/NW at 70KTS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  88  69  87 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  70  90  70  87 /  10  30  20  30
DEQ  67  85  66  84 /  30  30  20  40
TXK  69  86  68  85 /  20  30  20  30
ELD  68  88  67  86 /  20  30  20  30
TYR  70  86  68  85 /  20  40  20  30
GGG  69  85  68  85 /  20  30  20  30
LFK  69  87  68  86 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13



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