Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 200545
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1245 AM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 20/06Z VFR flight categories with clouds/ceilings of
25-30 kft prevailing and having middle level cover around 10-15
kft increasing into the early morning hours. After 20/09Z
expecting low level moisture returning from the South allowing
MVFR flight categories to return with ceilings from 15 hnd to 25
hnd feet. Could also see patchy mist/BR to reduce the surface
visibilities from 3-5 statute miles. Have included mention of VCSH
and VCTS for the East and Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana
sites. Lower flight categories will be slow to improve during the
first half of the daytime. Have included mention of VCSH for the
afternoon Southwest Arkansas. VFR will return into the afternoon
for all the sites. Surface winds will be light and variable to
light Southeast less than 7 knots overnight and Southeast 7-12
knots on Friday with an increase to around 10 to 15 knots with
higher gusts across the East Texas terminals by 20/15Z. /06/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 911 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
IR Satellite Imagery this evening continues to show plentiful high
clouds across much of the Four State Region but low level moisture
is best confined to SE TX attm. Slightly negative tilted upper
level trough axis continues to nose its way into the TX Hill
Country with a slowly retreating ridge across SE LA expected to
continue moving eastward overnight as the trough axis approaches.
HRRR and latest 00z NAM output does support the possibility of
some weak echoes overnight across our western most zones and this
is due in part to increasing PVA in the 500mb layer. Not all that
impressed with the likelihood of low level moisture return
overnight across our eastern zones but instead, we will need to
moisten the atmosphere from the top down if we are going to
squeeze out any precipitation overnight. Did not change the Slight
Chance pop wording across our western zones but did change the
Weather category to showers, leaving the possibility of Tstms out
of the forecast overnight.

While the high clouds are plentiful attm, they are thin,
especially across our eastern and northeastern zones. So much so
that hourly temperatures had already fallen well below hourly fcst
temps. Believe overnight low temps should be in the ballpark but
did make changes to the diurnal trends in ambient hourly
temperatures and dewpoints to better mimic these trends. Otherwise
no other significant changes to the forecast for the remainder of
the night. /13/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  83  66  85 /  10  20  20  40
MLU  55  83  65  84 /  10  10  20  40
DEQ  52  80  62  80 /  10  20  20  40
TXK  57  80  65  82 /  10  20  20  40
ELD  53  79  64  83 /  10  10  20  40
TYR  62  81  67  84 /  20  30  30  40
GGG  60  83  66  84 /  20  20  30  40
LFK  63  82  68  85 /  20  30  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/13


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