Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 210048
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
748 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES FORECAST FOR THE TERMINAL FORECAST SITES ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL AROUND 21/10Z WHEN PATCHY FOG MAY
DEVELOP REDUCING THE SURFACE VISIBILITIES TO 3-5 STATUTE MILES. NOT
CONFIDENT THAT THE LOWER THAN 3 STATUTE MILES VISIBILITIES WILL
OCCUR AS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT A LOWER DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A POCKET OF DRIER AIR SHIFTING
SWRD BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF...ESSENTIALLY CHOKING OFF THE
ISOLD CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER ERN OK
AND WRN AR. SCT CLOUD COVER HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED SWRD INTO THE NRN
HALF OF OUR CWA BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL REBOUNDED QUITE NICELY
FROM THIS MORNING...SOME 30 DEGREES IN FACT AT MOST LOCATIONS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN
ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS WILL BUILD EWRD AND ALLOW THIS PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK.

BY THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROF AND WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACROSS
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY BUT LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND THE
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NW ZONES AND MAY NEED TO LOOK AT EXPANDING THEM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS TO BE GIVEN MUCH MERIT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD INCREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER
RIDGE EXPANDS EWRD ONCE AGAIN AND SOUTH WINDS RETURN...PRODUCING
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  51  81  56  80  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  50  80  53  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  50  79  53  76  48 /  10   0   0   0  10
TXK  52  79  55  77  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  49  79  51  76  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  54  81  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  50  81  56  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  84  56  83  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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