Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 250023
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
723 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 25/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THIS TAF CYCLE BUT
STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO ADVECT
NWRD OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CIGS TO OVERTAKE MOST TERMINALS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK ALONG WITH
PATCHY FOG SLIGHTLY REDUCING VSBYS. SFC WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED
OFF A BIT FOR THIS EVENING FROM 5-10 KTS...GENERALLY STAYING IN
THAT RANGE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH THIS
EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO TXK BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED TS IN THE TAF
FOR NOW AS STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR NEAR MIDDAY.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WELL NORTH OF OUR REGION...THERE IS
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS WITH THE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THAT WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

VIS SATELLITE SHOWING A WELL DEFINED CU FIELD ACROSS N CENTRAL TX
INTO EASTERN OK/NW AR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH AS OF 19Z
WAS LOCATED NEAR A BVO...SPS...ABI LINE. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOW AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL JUST NORTHWEST OF OUR REGION
LATER THIS EVENING. MESOANALYSIS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
SHOWING CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000-1500 J/KG POOLING JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LITTLE CINH REMAINING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
ON THE ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF 40-50KTS WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AT OR NEAR 8 DEG/KM. LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM OUTPUT
SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE BETWEEN 20-22Z ACROSS SW
MO...SE KS...NE OK...WITH THE CONVECTION BUILDING SOUTH AND WEST
ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO SE OK. MCCURTAIN COUNTY MAY BE ON THE
SOUTHERN END OF ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE BOUNDARY LATER THIS EVENING. SWOMCD IS CURRENTLY OUT FOR OUR
EXTREME NW ZONES AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED
FOR A FEW OF OUR NW COUNTIES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
WITH STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

LOOKING AT A REPEAT SCENARIO FOR WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT ACROSS A
LARGER REGION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT AGAIN...OUR REGION WILL
BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY EVENING. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT OUT OF THE INTER MOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WED
NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH COMPLETELY THROUGH OUR REGION LATE
WED NIGHT/THU TIME PERIOD BUT MUCH LIKE TONIGHT`S CONVECTION...WE
QUICKLY STABILIZE WED EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS OUR REGION.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS OUR NW ZONES INITIALLY BUT AGREE WITH SPC`S DAYTWO OUTLOOK
KEEPING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY NORTH AND WEST OF OUR REGION
DUE TO STABILIZING EFFECTS AFTER SUNSET WED EVENING.

FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION QUICKLY ON THURSDAY TAKING
THE RAIN WITH IT. AMOUNTS LOOKING GENERALLY AROUND ONE QUARTER TO
ONE HALF INCH WITH THE EVENT...THUS SHOULD NOT RESULT IN MUCH IF
ANY IMPLICATIONS ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES WHICH REMAIN HIGH ATTM.

IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WED/THU...EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING WILL
DOMINATE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITH A DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW COMMENCING FOR OUR REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND SO FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD CLOSELY. THE
RIDGE OUT WEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  82  57  63 /  10  10  50  40
MLU  54  80  59  64 /  10  10  20  50
DEQ  56  79  49  62 /  40  20  70  30
TXK  59  80  53  62 /  20  20  60  30
ELD  56  78  57  63 /  20  10  50  50
TYR  60  81  53  62 /  10  10  60  30
GGG  59  82  55  63 /  10  10  60  30
LFK  59  84  58  66 /  10  10  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.