Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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478
FXUS64 KSHV 200413
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1013 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...
To expand fog and speed up for some of the four state area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
There are a few spots with some patchy dense fog. Stars early and
now clouds perhaps redeveloping in the lower levels with our
sounding near saturation at 2.7kft. Also, surface T/Td is close to
saturation in a few spots. We have Partly to Mostly cloudy skies
which will linger overnight with more fog especially where most
rain was recent or was heavy and moisture in the soil is still
elevated. Patchy dense fog with areas more likely on the recent
rains that will likely linger into the morning rush. It is
possible that more clouds could beat the fog and make for a less
hazardous scenario. In either case the temperatures will not budge
much more than a few degrees and lows still look to be on
target...sky willing. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Back edge of rainfall movg very slowly across portion of area,
east of I-49. This rain should be totally out of the area by
early this eve...thus have pop free fcst for entire night and the
entire day Fri. Some patchy fog is possible overnight, however,
lack of inversion along with return of south winds will limit
extent despite very wet ground. Will limit fog in fcst to mainly
AR/Ok portions of area experiencing aftn fog where south winds
have not reached yet. Convection will quickly surge nwd back into
the area Fri eve with negative tilted trough bringing colder mid
lvl temps. Instability and wind shear, combined with good shear,
will bring scattered convection with limited moisture preventing
more widespread coverage. Svr threat will be for mainly portions
of north La, south of I-20. As lead short wave moves east, a lull
in convection most likely to occur daytime Saturday and will leave
pops at slgt chance. Main upper low will renew tstm activity Sat
night, with stgest storms across same general area. Comma head
features of this low will result in a more stratiform rain around
backside into se OK/ne TX Sun aftn. Sunday will be windy from the
nw as well with a broad ridging setting up into the first of next
week./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 132 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 19/18Z terminal forecast expecting IFR/MVFR flight
categories to prevail. There may be brief periods of VFR but
will amend as necessary. A large area of rain and embedded
showers will spread East and Northeast across parts of Deep East
Texas and North Louisiana and South Central Arkansas. The back
edge of the rain will continue shifting East as an upper level
trough of low pressure axis moves across the area. Drier air may
clear the sky cover briefly but patchy fog may return during the
evening and for Friday morning. For those areas where ceilings do
lift/scatter out, MVFR ceilings should develop by mid evening and
fill back in, persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.
A gradual improvement expected by late morning/early afternoon
Friday. Surface winds will be variable for parts of Southwest and
South Central Arkansas this afternoon and South to Southwest 6-12
knots other sites. Winds will be Southerly and increasing to 10-15
knots. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  75  56  71 /  10  10  30  40
MLU  54  74  59  73 /  10  10  40  50
DEQ  49  71  48  67 /  10  10  20  30
TXK  52  72  52  69 /  10  10  30  30
ELD  51  72  56  70 /  10  10  20  40
TYR  52  76  54  69 /   0  10  30  40
GGG  53  76  56  70 /  10  10  30  40
LFK  55  78  58  72 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/07



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