Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 030308
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1008 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF APPROACHING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS
OUR FAR NRN ZONES THIS EVENING. EXPECT THESE SHWRS AND TSTMS TO
GRADUALLY WORK SWRD TO THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE FINALLY
DIMINISHING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
SCENARIO. ASIDE FROM UPDATING DEW POINTS TO BETTER REFLECT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. COULD SEE VCTS CONDITIONS BEGINNING 03/09Z ACROSS
TXK AND ELD/MLU BY 03/12Z AS COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS SOUTH
FROM ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS TONIGHT TO
BECOME 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY WITH VCTS CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 03/18Z. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS ASCENT WILL LEAD
TO CONVECTION ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF
TX/OK/AR. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND WOULD AFFECT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MOUNT VERNON TX TO EL DORADO AR. IF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CAN
FORM...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THIS FIRST ROUND OF TSTMS SHOULD LAY DOWN A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL ACT AS FOCI FOR REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION BUT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT WITH CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THEREFORE...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE SEWD ACROSS
THE REGION. CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALONG
THE FRONT AND WILL MOVE SEWD TOWARDS THE AREA SO THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS SE OK/SRN AR/NE TX. RE-
DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BUT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SE OK/SW AR
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THIS
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF AND BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE RIDGE AND PLACES THE CENTER DIRECTLY
OVER THE ARKLATEX BY MIDWEEK WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FARTHER
WEST. THUS...THE ECMWF FCST IS MUCH DRIER BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME VERY LOW POPS. THE APPEARANCE OF THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE AND A HEAVY WEIGHT IN CLIMO WOULD GENERALLY BE
THE REASON WHY SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE PUSHING HIGHS
OVER 100 DEGREES F BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
HOWEVER...THE BIAS IN CLIMATOLOGY FAILS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXTREME
RAINS OVER THE LAST TWO MONTHS AND MOST AREAS WEST OF A PRESCOTT
AR TO NATCHITOCHES LINE STILL HAVE WET SOILS. THE EVAPORATION FROM
THE WET SOILS SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS BELOW THE CENTURY MARK BUT
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY CLIMB. THE ERN ZONES AND OTHER
SPOTTY AREAS THAT MISSED OUT ON MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL OF MAY
AND JUNE COULD VERY WELL APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES F IN THE
LONG RANGE. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  91  75  91 /  10  30  40  60
MLU  74  92  75  89 /  10  30  40  60
DEQ  73  83  70  85 /  50  60  60  60
TXK  75  87  73  88 /  30  50  60  60
ELD  74  88  73  87 /  20  40  60  60
TYR  74  91  74  90 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  74  91  75  91 /  10  20  30  50
LFK  74  92  75  91 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19


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