Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281623 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1123 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 28/16Z...COLD FRONT IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD BUT IS STILL
JUST NORTH OF I-30. FIRST UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS LIFTING NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA WHICH IS ALSO LEADING TO A GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF
THE RAIN IN OUR NRN ZONES. A SECOND BAND OF SHWRS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CNTRL LA AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EWD. A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF
WRN KS/OK/TX. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS THIS NEXT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

HAVE UPDATED POP AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST PRECIP TRENDS AND
FRONTAL POSITION. HAVE ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND SCT PRECIP. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 721 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE AREAS OF LIFR CIGS AND FG HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX/N LA THIS MORNING...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDDAY THOUGH OVER THESE AREAS BEFORE LOW VFR CIGS RETURN
FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. FARTHER N...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM JUST W AND
N OF DFW...TO HHW...ACROSS NRN MCCURTAIN COUNTY OK TO JUST N OF
MEZ AS OF 12Z. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EXTREME NE TX/SE OK/SW AR TODAY AS THE
FRONT REACHES A TYR...TO TXK...TO CDH LINE AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY.
HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT LFK AND MLU
TODAY...WHILE ALSO POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE SHV TERMINAL JUST PRIOR
TO 00Z. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOW MVFR CIGS SPILLING S SHORTLY AFTER THE FROPA
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE ANY THUNDER DIMINISH BY 06Z
WITH THE LOSS OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT SCT -SHRA LOOK TO
PERSIST NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA/EXTREME SRN AR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME NNE AROUND 5KTS WITH THE FROPA THIS AFTERNOON OVER SW
AR...AND ALONG THE I-20 TERMINALS OF E TX/N LA TONIGHT. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MUGGY AND MILD FOR LATE OCTOBER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WHICH IS KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF DURANT AND CLAYTON OK.
THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS MUCH OF THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE PUSHING
ALONG EASTWARD OVER KN INTO NW MO WHILE TIED TO A DEEPENING
MIDWEST UPPER LOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD SLOW A BIT WITH
SOMEWHAT OF A LOSS OF UPPER SUPPORT...BUT STILL VERY SLOWLY PUSH
ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A SECOND VORT NOW OVER
UT AND CO DEEPENS THE OVERALL LONG WAVE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. AS
FAR AS WHAT IS ON RADAR THIS MORNING...A SHARP LITTLE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN A FIXTURE ALL NIGHT LONG AHEAD
OF THE FRONT..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF LOOSING THUNDER AND LIFTING
BACK NORTHEASTWARD WITH IT/S ELEMENTS OVER NE TX AT THIS TIME AS
THE PATTERN BELLYS OUT UNTIL THE NEXT VORT SWINGS INTO PLAY. OUR
AREA WIDE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LOOKS
LIKE TONIGHT FOR THE MOST PART WITH LIKELY POPS INTEGRATED WITH
WPC HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS.

MUCH OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SWING OVERHEAD
TODAY...BUT WITH MOISTENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS WE WILL TURN IN SOME DECENT QPF BY THIS TIME
TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH WIDE SPREAD NUMBERS MAY WELL LACK LUSTER IN
MANY LOCALES WITH THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE MAINLY OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL. WPC HAS A SWATH OF BETTER THAN INCH TOTALS FROM NEAR
TEXARKANA...TO MEMPHIS. WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR THE SECONDARY
SURGE WITH A LARGE SURFACE HIGH SWINGING DOWN IN THE PATTERN LATE
THIS WEEK. ALSO TO NOTE SOME APPRECIABLE RAIN REMAINS LIKELY BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK WITH A MUCH DEEPER TROPICAL CONNECTION ALONG
THE NEXT FRONTAL PATTERN. OVERALL...MAV IS QUITE REASONABLE AND
MEX IS A GOOD BIT COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
SOMEWHAT. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  60  74  49  76 /  30  60  20  10  10
MLU  79  58  72  45  73 /  30  60  20  10  10
DEQ  71  49  75  40  73 /  50  30  10  10  10
TXK  73  54  73  47  73 /  60  40  10  10  10
ELD  73  55  72  43  72 /  60  60  20  10  10
TYR  78  57  74  49  75 /  30  30  20  10  10
GGG  77  58  74  48  75 /  30  50  20  10  10
LFK  80  63  75  53  77 /  20  30  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09/12





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