Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 281136
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING A TIGHT DEW POINT GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
LOUISIANA INTO DEEP EAST TEXAS INDICATED THE LOCATION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY AND
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WAS INDICATED OVER THE AREA ALONG AND TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE...AND THE FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE UNTIL
AFTER DAYBREAK. THE TROUGH/BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY BEFORE IT STALLS AND
THEN THE WESTERN END WILL START TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS TEXAS
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES
DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT WILL NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR
NEAR 7 AM FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BY MID DAY TO LATE AFTERNOON. OUR NEXT UPPER CLOSED LOW
WILL BE MOVING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTRIBUTING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
DRIVING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS TEXAS AND ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NEAR THE RED
RIVER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH WITH
A DRY LINE BRANCHING FROM THE BOUNDARY ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND A CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS AS THEY SHIFT EAST ON FRIDAY AND NORTHEAST
BY SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING SATURDAY WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
THE LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RISES ON THE RED RIVER AND OTHER
TRIBUTARIES AND LAKES AND RIVERS AND LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING DURING
THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO TAPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE REGION WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER OUR NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS LAST SYSTEM WILL OPEN INTO
A WAVE AND WEAKEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ALOFT AMPLIFYING
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 28/06Z TAF PERIOD...AS SKC WILL
PREVAIL. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING BETWEEN 09-13Z THIS
MORNING MAINLY OVER THE ELD/MLU/LFK TERMINALS...NEAR AND E/S OF A WEAK
SFC TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT S INTO SE TX/SCNTRL LA THROUGH MID-
MORNING THURSDAY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC RIDGING BUILDING S. A RETURN SERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAK CU FIELD
POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LFK TERMINAL BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THIS CU SHOULD SPREAD BACK N ACROSS E TX/N LA THURSDAY
EVENING...WITH ELEVATED CIGS DEVELOPING NEAR/JUST AFTER 06Z NEAR/N OF
A WARM FRONT THAT WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THESE AREAS. MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS WELL AT LFK NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...BEFORE SPREADING N TO THE I-20 TERMINALS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
SHOULD SEE SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP AFTER 06Z FRIDAY AS WELL
OVER NE TX/SW AR/SE OK/POSSIBLY NW LA NEAR AND N OF THE WARM FRONT.
LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT ENE THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE
QUICKLY VEERING ESE 5-10KTS AFTER 18Z. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  68  83  69 /  10  30  60  70
MLU  86  68  84  70 /  10  20  60  50
DEQ  85  64  76  66 /   0  60  70  70
TXK  85  66  78  68 /  10  60  70  70
ELD  85  66  80  68 /  10  30  70  70
TYR  86  68  83  69 /  10  50  60  70
GGG  86  68  83  69 /  10  40  60  70
LFK  87  71  86  70 /  20  30  40  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06/15


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