Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 220302

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1002 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Convection has all diminished this evening with just some leftover
debris cirrus across east Texas and north Louisiana with much less
coverage farther north. Expect this cirrus to thin overnight with
low stratus developing once again south of I-20 prior to daybreak.
Light to near calm winds will also be conducive for some patchy
fog, especially where rainfall occurred earlier this evening but
coverage is expected to be sparse so have not included fog wording
in the zones for tonight. Otherwise, no other concerns to note for
tonight and no changes are needed for this evening update. Will
resend fresh zone package without mention of any convection. New
products will be out shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

Still dealing with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the TYR/GGG terminals this hour and therefore made
mention of VCSH for the first hour of the TAF period at these
locations. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail through the
evening hours. Cross sections overnight and low level pressure
fields suggest that the pressure gradient in the lower boundary
layer may not be as strong as what we have seen the last several
mornings across our terminal airspace and this could directly
effect whether or not we see IFR/MVFR ceilings after midnight
across many terminals. Did at least tempo these conditions
overnight at the TYR/GGG/LFK and SHV terminals with the
possibility of fog at these locations as well. Any MVFR/IFR
ceilings post sunrise on Friday will quickly lift and/or scatter
out by mid to late morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017/

An area of showers/t-storms has develop today across portions of
Deep East Texas due to diurnal heating and a weak mid level
disturbance across West Central Louisiana. This weak disturbance
will continue to drift south into southern LA this evening. Brief
locally heavy rain will be possible with this activity as some
areas could see some isolated rainfall amounts near 1 inch. Farther
north and east across the region, isolated convection has
developed, particularly near the Interstate 20 corridor of East
Texas and North Louisiana. Most of the convection is expected to
diminish by early evening with the loss of heating.

Ridging aloft stretching from the southern plains into the Great
Lakes region along with sfc ridging will build into the region on
Friday. This will result in hot and drier conditions over the
region, with pops only confined to extreme SE sections of Ncntrl
LA along a departing shear axis. A area of low pressure looks to
develop along that shear axis Saturday night/Sunday morning near
the Gulf coast. This low is expected to slowly retrograde W
towards the lower MS Valley beneath a ridge across the Ohio
Valley. This will give the eastern 2/3 of the region a chance of
afternoon rainfall through Monday evening.

The models suggest the low will move ENE away from the region on
Tuesday. At the same time, a weak cold front will slowly move SE
into our region by midweek. This will increase rain chances
across the region. By the end of next week temps will be able to
cool back down to near or slightly below normal behind the front.
Until then, expect hot and humid conditions to hang on across the
region with high temps in the low 90s. /20/

Prelims to follow below...


SHV  73  94  72  93 /  20  10   0  20
MLU  72  94  71  92 /   0  20  10  20
DEQ  71  91  69  91 /   0  10   0  10
TXK  72  92  71  92 /  10  10   0  10
ELD  70  92  69  91 /   0  10   0  20
TYR  73  92  72  92 /  20  10   0  10
GGG  73  92  71  93 /  20  10   0  10
LFK  73  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20




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