Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221237
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
737 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 22/12Z TAFS...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY BR/HZ CAUSING MVFR
VSBYS AT A FEW TERMINALS BRIEFLY THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INFLUENCING THE REGION. A WWRD MOVING UPPER LOW
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND MAY
INDUCE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS OVER OUR FAR ERN/SERN SITES. FOG MAY ALSO
REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AFFECTING VSBYS FOR A
FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THIS MORNING A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERED
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WHILE
TO THE SOUTHEAST A CLOSED LOW WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE PROVIDING THE FOUR STATE
AREA WITH CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES SOUTH LOUISIANA THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES EXTENDING TO
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES DOWN THE TEXAS COAST AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH AND TO THE EAST...WHILE THE
TRAILING END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
MOVING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH THAT WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTH ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY AND ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION. FOR THE LATE
PART OF THE WORK WEEK THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS
BACK OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION RETURNING DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE AMPLIFYING SOUTH AS DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE MOS
GUIDANCE LATER INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  71  93  72  92 /  10  10  20  20  20
MLU  92  70  91  72  92 /  20  20  30  30  40
DEQ  93  68  95  69  94 /   0   0  20  40  20
TXK  94  69  94  72  94 /   0   0  20  30  20
ELD  93  69  93  71  93 /  10  10  20  30  30
TYR  96  71  94  74  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
GGG  95  71  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  20
LFK  95  72  92  72  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19





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