Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 250149
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
849 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016
For the 25/00Z terminals forecasting mostly VFR away from the
showers and thunderstorms and for late tonight where rainfall
occurred at the sites. Winds will be light and variable to light
Southerly away from the outflow boundaries associated with
dissipating thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be possible during
the overnight hours for areas along and near interstate 30 and
again during the day Monday as the next round arrives. /06/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 352 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016/
Increased vertical ascent from a weak mid-level low over Southern
Arkansas/Northern Louisiana aided in the development of a broken
line of thunderstorms extending from the Louisiana Gulf Coast,
northward to near Homer, and northeastward into Southeast
Arkansas. Weak steering flow aloft has led to slow storm movement.
A few of the stronger storms have produced some locally high rain
rates, which is increasing the concern for localized flooding.
However, latest radar loops indicate an outflow boundary has
developed and is pushing out westward ahead of the storms, and the
cold pool development has increased forward motion over the last
hour. Based on current movement, these storms should approach the
Shreveport-Bossier City area between 22z-00z this afternoon. An
isolated severe wind gust or two cannot be ruled out especially as
storms collapse later this evening.
Very hot and muggy conditions continued today and a few locations
recorded heat index values above 110 degrees for at least an hour.
The mid-level low will continue to drift southwest over the region
for the next couple of days as it slowly rotates around a broad
upper ridge. Convective coverage and associated clouds are
expected to be much more widespread on Monday. As a result,
temperatures should only reach the lower 90s, which will keep heat
index values below advisory criteria. Therefore, the current Heat
Advisory will be allowed to expire at 00z this evening.
By Tuesday, another upper low, currently over Florida, will
move west along the Gulf Coast and eventually across the southern
half of the CWA. This low will keep scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for Tuesday and
Wednesday. After the second low exits the region, the upper ridge
will amplify over the Desert Southwest late this week causing the
flow aloft to transition to westerly or northwesterly. This will
bring another series of upper troughs through the Central U.S. and
Mississippi River Valley keeping showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through next weekend.
Muggy conditions will continue, especially with the increased
moisture. However, the persistent rainfall chances, especially
through Friday, should keep daytime high temperatures down in the
low 90s. The high humidity will still likely result in heat index
values in the upper 90s or low 100s, but it will still be some
relief from the oppressive heat of the last few weeks.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 92 76 92 / 30 60 20 40
MLU 76 93 75 92 / 30 60 20 40
DEQ 76 93 75 95 / 30 50 30 30
TXK 77 92 75 94 / 30 60 20 30
ELD 76 93 75 93 / 30 60 20 30
TYR 77 93 75 93 / 20 60 20 40
GGG 77 93 75 92 / 30 60 20 40
LFK 76 92 75 91 / 20 60 30 60