Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271804
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
104 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE 27/18Z TAF PERIOD INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS
AND PERIODS OF IFR. CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION HAD
BECOME ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS TO INCREASE
AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS TSTMS POSSIBLE BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUST IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. IFR
CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT...BECOMING WIDESPREAD AFTER 06Z. PERIODS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL ALSO BRING VSBYS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 MILES
AT TIMES. SURFACE WIND EAST TO NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE LAST OF THE EARLY MORNING QLCS HAS FINALLY MOVED EWD...LEAVING
ONLY SOME SCT SHWRS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HAVE CANCELLED
TORNADO WATCH 125 AS A RESULT. LOOKS AS IF WE WILL GET A BREAK
BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE TAYLORED POPS AROUND THIS...WHICH MEANT LOWERING
POPS FOR OUR ERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS/DEW POINTS LOOK
REASONABLE...SO WILL LET THEM RIDE AS IS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE
OUT SHORTLY. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE NORTHEAST TEXAS COUNTIES AND
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA PARISHES IN TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 125.
TORNADO WATCH NO LONGER IN EFFECT FOR ANY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 126 CONTINUED IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT.
ALSO LOWERED THE RAIN CHANCES AND QPF AMOUNTS FOR THOSE AREAS THAT
LOOKED TO BE DECREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF
RAIN. /06/

DISCUSSION...
RAIN HAS DECREASED OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NORTHEAST
TEXAS AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND INVERTED TROUGH.
LATER TODAY HRRR MODEL DATA SHOWS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO
PARTS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WHICH MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO ACROSS REMAINING PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO OTHER SECTIONS OF ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  63  46  71 /  80  60  10  10
MLU  56  64  48  70 /  80  70  30  10
DEQ  49  60  42  71 /  80  60  10  10
TXK  51  61  46  70 /  80  60  10  10
ELD  51  59  44  70 /  80  70  30  10
TYR  54  64  47  71 /  80  40  10   0
GGG  53  63  48  71 /  80  40  10  10
LFK  59  68  50  73 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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