Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 311703
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1203 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF POPS FOR FAR SOUTH CWA TO
50 PERCENT..AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SE TX...AND
MOVE INTO THE TOLEDO BEND AREA. DECREASED TEMP A COUPLE DEGREES
INTO THE UPPER 80S...WHERE THIS RAIN IS OCCURRING...AND WHERE
CLOUD COVER IS GREATER INTO PORTIONS OF LA./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1201 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 31/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 01/00Z. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR AND PATCHY IFR
CIGS AFTER 01/06Z...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING.
/14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A STEADY MOISTURE STREAM FROM THE
S/SW THIS MORNING...TRANSLATING INTO A FAIRLY SOLID CIRRUS SHIELD
SOUTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. LOW STRATUS IS ALSO
MAKING A RETURN NWRD...GENERALLY IN THE SAME AREAS UNDER THE
BLANKET OF CIRRUS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE SAME GENERAL AREA
WILL SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHERE A WEAK SHEAR AXIS IS
LOCATED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE GIVEN THE
GRADUAL WWRD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE...WHICH IS CENTERED ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...EXCEPT OVER
OUR FAR NW ZONES WHERE DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM
THE NW WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

THE TREND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INCLUDING THE LABOR DAY HOLIDAY...
WILL BE FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE LOWER AND MAINLY
MID 90S FOR HIGHS AND MID 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE PRETTY BLEAK FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ALTHOUGH SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY. A FRONT IS PROGGED TO
DROP SWRD FROM THE PLAINS BUT STALL NORTH OF THE REGION BY NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL ENHANCE OUR RAIN
CHANCES AS THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT BACK NWRD LATER IN THE
WEEKEND. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  76  94  77  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
MLU  88  73  93  75  94 /  30  10  10  10  30
DEQ  91  71  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
TXK  90  73  94  75  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
ELD  89  72  94  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TYR  93  76  95  77  95 /  10  10  10  10  20
GGG  92  74  95  76  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
LFK  90  76  95  76  94 /  30  10  20  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

07/07




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