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000
FXUS64 KSHV 171533
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1033 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE NEAR COAST CREATING CONVECTION OVER GULF...WITH SHOWERS
MOVG NEWD ONSHORE...BUT WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...AS SEEN ON 12Z LCH RAOB. ADDED ISOLD SHOWERS TO FCST FOR
THIS AFTN...TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS TRYING TO
WORK THEIR WAY FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STEADILY
CLIMBING DESPITE THICKENING MID LVL CLOUDINESS...SO FOR NOW...WILL STILL
EXPECT AFTN TEMPS TO REACH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...NEXT 7 DAYS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN CHANCES BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
SHOULD BE LOW FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY WARM DESPITE THE REPEATED RAIN CHANCES.

TODAY SHOULD BE RAIN FREE UNTIL AFTER 00Z. TWO SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS...ONE CURRENTLY OVER SE CO AND ANOTHER JUST SE OF THE BIG
BEND OF TX WILL MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. THE SRN WAVE SHOULD
MOVE WELL S OF THE CWA AND ANY PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED MORE
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR BREAKS OUT SOME
QPF ACROSS DEEP E TX LATER THIS MORNING BUT NONE OF THE OTHER
MODELS ARE REALLY PICKING UP ON THIS. LATEST RADAR LOOPS INDICATE
CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL TX SHOULD STAY S OF THE CWA. THUS...WILL
KEEP THE DAYTIME HRS DRY. BETTER CHANCES FOR SHWRS WILL LIKELY BE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE CO SHORTWAVE DIVES SE TOWARDS THE
CWA AND EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH THE TX TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR A FEW SCT SHWRS. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE QUITE MEAGER SO WILL NOT MENTION THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND THE RIDGE
SHOULD MOVE E BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING THE FLOW TO TRANSITION
TO SWLY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WHILE A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY AS THE FIRST OF THESE WEAK IMPULSES
APPROACHES AND CONVECTION MOVES INTO THE CWA FROM THE W. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHWRS/TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE LATE SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES. CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER LOW
DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
CHANCES FOR SCT SHWRS/TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PROGRESS.
GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING RAIN IN THE AREA
UNTIL THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS THE CWA SO HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AS A MUCH
STRONGER UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE COUNTRY LATE NEXT WEEK BUT
IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER N ACROSS THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS. STILL...A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC SHOULD STILL PROVIDE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  53  76  57  81 /  10  20  10  10  10
MLU  71  54  74  56  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
DEQ  70  46  77  52  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
TXK  70  51  75  55  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
ELD  70  50  75  54  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
TYR  70  54  75  57  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
GGG  70  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  10  10
LFK  71  54  78  57  80 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$