Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 161657
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1057 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE UPDATE THIS MORNING...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL WITH
PASSING CIRRUS AND HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVEN NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SRN FRINGES OF THE AREA.
BREEZY NW WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER TODAY AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH NEAR FREEZING TO EVEN
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NEW TEXT PRODUCTS REFLECTING MINOR CHANGES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SENT. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
PRETTY QUIET TERMINAL FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE ARE DEALING WITH A POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS WHICH HAS SCOURED OUT ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR THE
MOST PART. IR IMAGERY SHOWING THAT THIN CIRRUS WILL BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY SWING EAST OF OUR REGION BY TONIGHT AS WE AWAIT THE
EFFECTS OF INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE WEST. THIS
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING MID CLOUDS NEAR OR AROUND 8KFT
TO BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX TERMINALS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEFORE
12Z WED.

POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST NEAR 10-12KTS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
CALM ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD AWAY
FROM THE AREA AND AN UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS IN PLACE
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR IS GRADUALLY FILTERING INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SWLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY.
PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC SHOULD STREAM OVER THE AREA.
SHWRS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SRN
CALIFORNIA COAST...APPROACHES. THIS FIRST WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE UNDER ONE INCH
BEFORE AND THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE ALONG
AND N OF I-30 IN NE TX/SE OK.

RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST TROUGH...A SECOND AND STRONGER
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG FARTHER S AND INTO CNTRL TX. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER S TX AND GENERALLY MOVE NEWD ALONG THE
TX/LA COAST WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE AN ENHANCED FOCUS FOR PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SECOND TROUGH COULD BE
BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I-20.

UPPER TROUGH SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS DRY. THERE COULD BE
ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BUT MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN QUITE
A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT. AFTER TODAY...TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL UNTIL NEXT WEEK. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  35  53  45  54 /   0   0  10  60  40
MLU  57  34  53  42  52 /   0   0  10  50  50
DEQ  51  30  48  40  50 /   0   0  30  70  30
TXK  52  33  49  41  51 /   0   0  20  60  40
ELD  53  33  51  41  49 /   0   0  10  60  40
TYR  54  36  51  45  58 /   0   0  30  60  30
GGG  56  35  51  44  56 /   0   0  20  60  40
LFK  60  38  56  49  62 /   0   0  10  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.