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000
FXUS64 KSHV 091001
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
501 AM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED OUR CWA THIS MORNING WITH SOME POST-FRONTAL
LIGHT RAIN ONGOING FROM DEEP E TX INTO MUCH OF N LA AND PORTIONS
OF S AR. LIGHT RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY SO POPS HAVE BEEN REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY. COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT IS ALREADY QUITE EVIDENT AS TEMPERATURES HAVE SLOWLY
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS SE OK AND A GOOD CHUNK OF NE TX.
LOW STRATUS EXTENDS WELL BEHIND THE FRONT BACK ACROSS N CNTRL TX
AND S CNTRL OK SO EXPECT A SLOW CLIMB IN TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND WEST TO NEAR 60
DEGREES SOUTH AND EAST. DEPENDING ON BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES MAY NOT WARM AS MUCH AS INDICATED WHICH
IS WHY OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE JUST SLIGHTLY AT MOST LOCATIONS.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW
SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS WILL COME TUESDAY AS THE NOW CUTOFF LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO EJECTS EWRD ACROSS S TX. AT THIS TIME POPS ONLY SEEM
WARRANTED PRIMARILY FOR OUR SRN AND ERN ZONES AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST. FOR NOW...HAVE ONLY GONE AS HIGH AS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...AT WHICH TIME OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN POPS APPEAR HIGHER ACROSS
OUR SRN AND ERN AREAS. THE FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A
GOOD 10-15 DEGREES WITH A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE NEXT SHOT AT RAINFALL WILL COME LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH FROM THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
LATE SATURDAY AND ACROSS OUR REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS
TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THE LAST FEW WE HAVE SEEN AND WILL
LIKELY BRING MORE RAINFALL AS WELL WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW
DROPPING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MID MS VALLEY AND A RICH MOISTURE
SUPPLY AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN SLY FLOW. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 PM CST SAT MAR 8 2014/

AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT IS BISECTING OUR CWA FROM KLFK...TO KSHV...TO KELD
WITH NW WINDS 5-10 AND A FEW GUSTS WEST. ISOLD ELEVATED TSTMS MAY
ACCOMPANY A WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING IN OVER NE TX ATTM...OVERRUNNING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH WIDESPREAD RA/BR/FG/DZ. VLIFR/IFR WEST
TO VFR/MVFR CIGS EAST...BUT ALL WILL GO DOWN FOR THE NIGHT AND
INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR MID TO LATE AFTN
ON SUNDAY. OUR CLIMB WINDS ARE LIGHT NW SFC THROUGH 2 TO 4KFT THEN
ARE SW/W 20-40KTS ON UP. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  47  72  56  76 /  20   0  10  10  20
MLU  62  48  72  55  77 /  30   0  10  10  30
DEQ  55  37  71  46  76 /  10   0   0  10  10
TXK  55  43  71  53  76 /  10   0   0  10  10
ELD  58  45  71  51  77 /  20   0   0  10  20
TYR  57  43  72  56  76 /  10   0  10  10  10
GGG  58  44  72  55  76 /  10   0  10  10  10
LFK  60  47  73  56  76 /  30   0  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19