Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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353
FXUS64 KSHV 282015
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
315 PM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Southerly flow has returned to the ArkLaTex bringing much warmer
temperatures areawide. Temperatures ranging from the upper 70s
across southeast Oklahoma to the upper 80s across deep east Texas.
One of the more significant changes is that dewpoint values have
risen into the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is a difference of 20
to 25 degrees within the past 24 hours.

Severe weather threat remains possible across southeast Oklahoma
and portions of southwest Arkansas. Main focus of severe weather
will be in the vicinity of a warm front that moved across the
ArkLaTex earlier today and which is now located in central
Arkansas. Severe weather will be mainly focused near frontal
boundary, putting the Interstate 30 corridor on the southern edge
of the risk area. With a substantial cap in place, destabilization
may not occur until around mid-evening. Main threat will be
supercells producing large hail with a secondary threat of
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

An enhanced pressure gradient will allow for southerly winds
within lake wind advisory criteria of around 20 mph through the
overnight hours and into Saturday. For this forecast package, went
ahead and extended lake wind advisory through 7 PM Saturday.

Severe weather threat becomes more widespread on Saturday. Low-
level moisture will support dewpoint values in the 70s on
Saturday, aiding in destabilization. Another contributing factor
will be strong low-level jet and cape values 2500-4000 j/kg.
Storm development will occur along an eastward moving cold front,
developing from the south and becoming linear through the
afternoon as mid-level vort max aligns with eastward progressing
storms. Squall line to reach maturity around sunset Saturday with
damaging wind gusts becoming the main threat. Along with severe
weather, locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. Latest
guidance has indicated QPF totals to be slightly less than
previously expected across the region. However, 4-6 inches still
remains possible across Flash Flood Watch area. Will continue with
ongoing watch at this time with no adjustments.

Conditions to quickly improve from the west on Sunday as high
pressure rebuilds from the west. Mild temperatures expected next
week with temperatures ranging from highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. Another round of showers
and thunderstorms expected on Wednesday night and Thursday in
conjunction with another cold front. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1132 AM CDT Fri Apr 28 2017/

AVIATION...
A spring storm to develop across the four corners area of the
desert SW this Friday. This storm to then move E into the Great
Plains states this weekend. Strong warm air advection as well as
deep tropical moisture advected from the Gulf of Mexico to result
in MVFR conditions during tonight through Saturday. Also SCT TSTMS
to develop during Saturday afternoon with conditions deteriorating
to IFR in TSTMS. /VIII/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  86  61  73 /  20  50  90  50
MLU  75  88  70  75 /  20  50  70  90
DEQ  72  80  57  66 /  50  90 100  40
TXK  74  83  59  69 /  40  70  90  40
ELD  74  85  66  72 /  30  60  90  70
TYR  75  85  57  68 /  20  60  90  30
GGG  75  85  58  70 /  20  50  90  30
LFK  76  86  61  74 /  20  50  90  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ070>073.

     Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for ARZ050-051-059>061.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>022.

OK...Flash Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
     for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

05/08



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