Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261206 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
706 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

Areas of LIFR cigs have developed this morning across portions of
Ncntrl LA/Scntrl AR...with an extensive area of 9-14kft cigs
lingering over the remainder of the region in wake of the
convection that fired Thursday afternoon/evening. Additional
IFR/low MVFR cigs may develop this morning but could be tempered
somewhat by the extensive elevated cigs in place that will be slow
to erode. Low VFR cigs should develop by late morning/early
afternoon over Scntrl AR/Ncntrl LA...with isolated to widely sct
convection developing over these areas through the afternoon. A
little greater confidence in convection firing is over the MS
River Delta...which will shift NW across portions of NE LA/SE AR.
Have inserted VCTS for the MLU/ELD terminals with this convection
diminishing during the early evening with the loss of heating.
Have taken out mention for the TXK/SHV terminals given the low
confidence...with the greater AC canopy over E TX limiting
instability and thus more robust convective development.
Thus...have added VCSH for the E TX terminals this
afternoon...with the deeper convection expected to fire W of TYR
where the better instability should be found. Elevated convective
debris should linger through the overnight hours over SE OK/E
TX...with drier air spreading WNW from the MS Valley expected to
erode the elevated cigs over Scntrl AR/Ncntrl LA late. Lt/Vrb
winds today will become light E after 00Z. /15/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 500 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

Several sites with low low clouds at a few hundred feet in lieu of
what would otherwise be thick fog if there were fair skies. The
2-4 inch rain areas mainly are seeing these low clouds, and it`s
the amount of mid and high clouds that are keeping any major fog
areas from developing over our very wet ground. This Easterly`s
surge of high pwat moisture is still lying over the Four State
Area and we will no doubt see rain just about anywhere today, but
perhaps being quite worked over the East will see less to start
and finish. We have likely wording mainly over our Western half or
so. We had a pretty good MCV last night that really just piled on
the rain totals late in the day and it basically took I-49 North.
That MCV has lifted past Texarkana and has some light shower
activity rotating even at this hour over Southwest Arkansas. Also
we have some interacting left over surface boundaries over Deep
East Texas likewise producing a few light showers at this time.
Regional radar mosaics are showing a good inflow of Thunderstorms
off the Gulf of Mexico stretching from Galveston to Sabine pass,
moving the N/NW.

The tropical plume will continue to work North and West running
up along the stationary front over OK/N TX and will bring rain to
areas to our NW especially in the coming days. So our chance for
rain will be diminishing a good bit in the coming days, but we
will hang on to a slight chance everyday into next week. Also to
note the NHC is watching a disturbance south of New Orleans that
is interesting under the plume, but only has a 10 percent chance
for cyclone development. We will also keep an eye on the
disturbance on the NE coast of Cuba sporting a likely chance over
the next 5 days to spin up. /24/


SHV  91  74  92  74 /  50  20  30  20
MLU  93  73  92  74 /  50  20  20  10
DEQ  88  72  90  72 /  60  30  30  10
TXK  89  73  90  73 /  60  30  30  10
ELD  91  73  91  72 /  50  20  20  10
TYR  88  73  90  74 /  60  20  30  20
GGG  90  73  91  74 /  60  20  30  20
LFK  90  74  90  75 /  60  20  30  20


.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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