Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190947
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
447 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TO THE ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT...BRINGING A
SLOW RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SKIRT THE
NORTHERN AREAS BY MONDAY...AND THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED TSTM. AFTER THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK. THEN LATE WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...AND THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE REGION AS IT DROPS FURTHER
SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY LATE THURSDAY. MODELS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH
THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK...WITH THE EURO SHOWING THE BEST MOISTURE
RETURN WITH A SOMEWHAT DEEPER TROUGH. FOR NOW WILL BEGIN TO EASE
SOME RAIN INTO THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA...WAITING TO
SEE HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE GFS TAKES THE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE
OZARKS AND INTO GEORGIA BY SATURDAY WHILE THE EURO BRINGS IT SOUTH
ACROSS EAST TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO NORTHCENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO BY THE WEEKEND. IF THE EURO SOLUTION IS CORRECT...THEN MORE
RAIN CAN BE ADDED INTO FRIDAY. IN ANY CASE...EXPECT MORE CLOUDINESS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS.

WILL KEEP SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS GOING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTER MID WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  76  51  79  55  81 /   0   0  10  10   0
MLU  75  46  79  52  82 /   0   0  10  10   0
DEQ  73  48  75  54  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
TXK  74  49  78  54  80 /   0   0  10  10   0
ELD  73  45  77  53  79 /   0   0  10  10   0
TYR  77  54  80  56  81 /   0  10   0  10   0
GGG  76  51  79  51  81 /   0  10  10  10   0
LFK  80  55  81  55  83 /   0  10   0  10   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

14




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