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000
FXUS64 KSHV 210514
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1214 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 21/06Z TAFS...VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD DESPITE AN ADVANCING UPPER LOW
AND TROF FROM WRN OK/TX. ISOLD TO SCTD SHWRS CONTINUE ACROSS
EXTREME NE TX ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR OVER PARTS OF
SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SOME
OF THESE SHWRS MAY AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV TERMINALS AS
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TRIES TO DEVELOP BUT EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY TO STILL REMAIN WEST AND NORTH OF THESE LOCATIONS.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CIGS WITH THE ADDITIONAL SURGE OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR MUCH OF MONDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR CIGS BUT
HAVE HELD OFF BRINGING THEM BELOW CRITERIA FOR NOW. WINDS WILL
REMAIN S/SELY INCREASING BY LATE MORNING ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS BECOMING MORE LIKELY BY LATE
MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
DRIFTING E ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...WITH EXTENSIVE
AREAS OF SHRA WITH EMBEDDED TSRA WITHIN THE DIFFLUENT REGION AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH ALONG 850MB THETA-E RIDGING CONTINUING TO SPREAD NE
INTO SE OK. THE SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TROUGH PROGRESSING E THROUGH OK OVERNIGHT...AND MAINTAINING THIS
CONVECTION MAINLY ALONG/N OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT POP
FORECAST HAS THIS HANDLED WELL...ALTHOUGH DID MAKE A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO TRIM POPS OUT OF DEEP E TX/PORTIONS OF N LA.
HAVE ALSO TONED DOWN THUNDER MENTION TO ISOLATED GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE 00Z KSHV/KFWD RAOBS. HAVE
ALSO MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY TO ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FARTHER S...WITH SCT CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH SVR POTENTIAL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXTENT OF INSTABILITY
THAT DEVELOPS FROM HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER E TX.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY/0-3KM HELICITIES DO INCREASE FARTHER S AND W
OVER CNTRL TX...BUT REMOVED FROM THE BETTER FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH.

CONCERNING TEMPS...DID BUMPS MIN TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT
GIVEN THE 02Z OBS...AND THE FACT THAT AC/CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO BLANKET THE AREA AND HOLD TEMPS UP.
HOWEVER...THE E/SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA WILL BE THE COOLEST GIVEN
THE CLOUD FREE SKY ATTM...AND WILL BE LAST TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  61  80  62  80  59 /  20  20  50  10  10
MLU  57  81  60  80  57 /  10  20  30  20  10
DEQ  60  77  57  80  51 /  60  60  60  10  10
TXK  62  79  60  79  55 /  40  40  60  10  10
ELD  59  79  58  79  53 /  20  30  60  10  10
TYR  61  79  61  81  60 /  40  30  60  10  10
GGG  61  80  61  81  59 /  30  20  60  10  10
LFK  59  82  62  82  61 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19