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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290446
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1046 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015


.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE NEAR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTHERN OK...WILL REACH CWA BY MID MORNING
THU...WITH WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING WITH TIME TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION BTWN 29/21-24Z. SCT MID DECKS UNDERNEATH INCREASING
CIRRUS CLOUDS...TO ACCOMPANY COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...SKIES TO REMAIN
VFR AREAWIDE THRU 30/06Z FCST CYCLE./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER ACROSS THE FOUR
STATE REGION FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
AND ON THE SURFACE CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST FROM THE FORECAST AREA.
A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH AND
UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE WINDS OVERNIGHT. THE
COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE LOW AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT
UPSTREAM TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SPREAD THE COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY SLY WINDS...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND ONLY THIN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE COMBINED TO LEAD TO A VERY WARM DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
CWA. 20Z OBS INDICATE THAT ALMOST ALL LOCATIONS HAVE WARMED TO OR
ABOVE 70 DEGREES F AND SEVERAL STATIONS ACROSS E TX HAVE HIT 80
DEGREES F. A WARM NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ONLY
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S...WHICH IS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NORMAL MAX TEMP FOR TODAY. SLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME PATCHY
ADVECTION FOG ACROSS DEEP E TX AND INTO CNTRL LA.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM NW
TO SE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER NORTH OF A LINE FROM KJSO-KELD WHERE SOME PLACES
MAY BE 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. SOUTH OF THIS LINE...SWLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND WARMING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD ALLOW SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO WARM TO NEAR 70
DEGREES F ONCE AGAIN. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS INITIAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY WEST OF THE
BAJA PENINSULA SHOULD BE SLOWLY MOVING EWD OVER BAJA AND NWRN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT
RETURNING NWD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD EAST INTO OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON SUNDAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP
TO BE ANOTHER GOOD...LONG DURATION...SOAKING RAIN EVENT. RAINFALL
TOTALS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND USHERS IN SOME
COLDER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS WILL LIKELY FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-20.

THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LARGELY BE CUTOFF FROM THE
MAIN WESTERLIES BUT SHOULD OPEN AND EJECT NEWD MERGING INTO THE
MAIN FLOW BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
RAIN EVENT FOR NEXT WEEK AS A COASTAL SFC LOW DEVELOPS AND TRACKS
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
IN THE GFS/ECMWF RIGHT NOW AS THE ECMWF TRACKS THE UPPER
TROUGH/COASTAL SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTH WHICH IN TURNS KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIP SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WETTER
GFS AND INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS AS THE GFS TRACK IS
FAIRLY REFLECTIVE OF MANY OF OUR RAIN EVENTS OVER THE LAST MONTH
OR SO. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  67  39  54  39 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  51  72  39  54  36 /   0  10   0   0  10
DEQ  46  62  33  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  51  63  36  53  38 /   0   0   0   0  10
ELD  50  67  37  53  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  52  66  39  54  41 /   0   0   0  10  10
GGG  53  67  39  55  40 /   0   0   0  10  10
LFK  52  73  42  56  42 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$