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000
FXUS64 KSHV 280906
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
406 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.FIRE WEATHER...
VFR conditions will continue through the 28/12Z TAF period. Today Winds
out of the W/WNW at 6 to 10 kts then becoming late and variable
overnight. /21/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Benign weather will describe this weather through the short term
portion of the forecast with a warm up expected by late weekend
into early next week ahead of our next storm system.

IR imagery this morning showing that cloud cover for the most part
has exited the region with only some high thin cirrus across our
southern and western zones. Looking aloft...a vigorous upper level
storm system will drop south of the Great Lakes into the Ohio
Valley today and into the Tenn Valley late tonight. This will help
to push a reinforcing shot of cooler air into our region tonight
into Thursday in the form of a cold front. Moisture is virtually
non existent with this front so the boundary will come in dry.
Ahead of the front today...should see compressional warming across
our region which will result in temperatures being warmer than
those experienced on Tue with cold air advection resulting in
considerably cooler temperatures on Thursday. Should be able to
radiate temps down into lower and middle 50s Thu Night with upper
40s possible across the colder valleys of SE OK and SW AR. This
cooler and drier airmass will stay with us through the upcoming
weekend with the Gulf remaining shut down...at least until early
next week.

The upper trough will lift back to the north and east for Sunday
into Monday of next week as a strong upper level trough enters the
Pacific Northwest. Our area will remain under the influence of
weak ridging aloft on Monday before our upper flow becomes
southwest on Tue as the upper trough inters the Intermountain
West. Have introduced low end chance pops across our western zones
by next Wednesday to account for moisture return...upward forcing
and instability returning to the region.

Prelims to follow...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  88  58  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  87  57  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  87  52  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  86  57  77  54 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  86  55  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  86  58  79  55 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  87  57  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  89  58  82  52 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

21/13