Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 211550
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1050 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.MORNING UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE ARKLATEX
THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS FROM LILLIE AND BERNICE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
DODSON AND CALVIN...BACK TO MANY...HEMPHILL...AND PINELAND. BEHIND
THIS LINE...WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS CONTINUE AS
WELL...MAKING IT ANOTHER SOGGY MORNING. WE DID HAVE REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING AGAIN IN LUFKIN THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL
ROADS...INCLUDING HIGHWAYS 50 AND 69 CLOSED SOUTH OF LUFKIN.
HOWEVER...MOST AREAS ARE JUST SEEING SOME NUANCE FLOODING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL RATES TO SEE IF ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

THIS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THIS TREND. ALSO NUDGED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT FOR TODAY...GIVEN THE COOLER AIR SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS THE RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS.

THE OTHER MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE WITH THE
POTENTIAL MAJOR FLOOD EVENT DEVELOPING ALONG THE RED RIVER.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO FORECAST UPWARDS OF 8
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION FALLING OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN UPSTREAM
OF LAKE TEXOMA IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF A
MAJOR FLOOD EVENT ALONG THE RED RIVER...THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1990.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
BRIEF IFR W/ MVFR FOR SHWRS/TSTMS ALONG I-20 FOR TERMINALS FROM
TYR TO MLU. A LEAD SHORT WAVE OUT OF THE LONG WAVE ANCHORED OVER
THE SW US HAS OVERRUN A RECENT FROPA AND FLOODING RAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. SFC WINDS N/NE 5-10 WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 AND IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN DOWN POURS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NE FOR THE FIRST
COUPLE OF THOUSAND FEET VEERING QUICKLY TO SE THEN SW BY 7KFT.
W/SW 20-60KTS ON ASCENT TO FL300. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD ALL DAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR. OUTLOOK FOR THE
WEEKEND IS MUCH BETTER...BUT PM POPS TSTMS BCMG NUMEROUS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WAS PROVIDING
LIFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING. ON THE SURFACE A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD
FRONT HAD REACHED THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA. UNSEASONABLY
LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FOLLOW TODAY...
EASILY MOVING THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY EVENING AS THE SURFACE
FRONT REACHES THE COAST. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ISOLATED BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES TONIGHT ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL REPLACE
THE TROPICAL AIR THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE FOR A WHILE...AND THURSDAY
MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THE FRONT STALLING ALONG THE COAST...SOUTHERLY 850MB FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...SO LOOK FOR CONVECTION
TO INCREASE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WHEN THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL RIDE UP THE BACK
SIDE OF A WEAK RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES EASTERN
AREAS TO ISOLATED. A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING
AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO BE HIGH...SO HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. SUNDAYS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER...WHICH
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE STORMS MONDAY AND AGAIN
TUESDAY. FINALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE LIMITED...
RESULTING FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF BREAK IN TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...EXPECT VERY HUMID WEATHER DUE TO THE CLOUDINESS AND RAIN...
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY LOWER AND MID 80S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  59  77  66 /  70  30  30  20
MLU  73  57  77  64 /  60  10  10  20
DEQ  71  55  71  60 /  50  20  50  20
TXK  70  57  73  62 /  50  20  40  20
ELD  70  57  74  62 /  60  10  20  20
TYR  71  62  77  67 /  70  30  50  20
GGG  72  61  78  67 /  70  30  40  20
LFK  78  66  81  70 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PALMER/24/14


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