Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221209
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
609 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...

To remove rainfall from the forecast for this
morning across the Four State Region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Undated to remove the mention of rain for this morning
and made minor adjustments to sky cover as surface high
pressure and drier air builds into the region in wake of
a dry-line/cold front. Winds will be on the increase by late
morning with the approach of another re-enforcing cold front.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

AVIATION...
Convection finally exiting the cwa to the east, including the kmlu
terminal area. VFR skc across ne TX and will soon be areawide, and
continue thru the 23/12z fcst cycle and beyond as dryline movg
east across area. As westerly flow mixes down to sfc, west winds
to increase to 15 to 25 kts, gusting to 35 kts, at ktyr, kggg,
kshv, and especially ktxk. Kmlu and klfk will remain around 15 kts
with a few higher gusts. Winds to decrease by 23/00z to continued
west at 5 to 10 kts for the overnight, except lower across areas
where daytime winds not as stg./07/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 528 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Early this morning a dry-line/cold front continued to spread East
across the Four State Region and shortly before 5 AM had moved to
near a Camden to Magnolia Arkansas, and Minden to Logansport
Louisiana, and Center and Lufkin Texas line. Out ahead of the
line the trailing edge of showers and isolated thunderstorms
stretched from near Strong Arkansas to Jonesboro, Natchitoches,
and Hornbeck Louisiana line. A tight pressure gradient associated
with surface high pressure building into the region and a tightly
surface low pressure system moving across the Plains and Middle
Mississippi Valley will produce Westerly winds of 15-25 MPH with
higher gusts to 25-35 MPH resulting in a Lake Wind Advisory for
much of the Four State Region. A second cold front will be
moving across the area later during the morning and through the
day with the winds increasing. Drier air moving into the
forecast area will clear skies from the Northwest with the
precipitation across South Central Arkansas and parts of
North Central Louisiana ending by mid morning. Aloft a closed
low continued to spin across Kansas and Oklahoma which will be
lifting to the Northeast across the Ohio and Tennessee Vallies
and as an open wave over the Great Lakes Region by mid day
Tuesday. High pressure on the surface and aloft will provide
near normal temperatures and dry conditions for much of the
rest of the work week. The next upper trough of low pressure will
be amplifying across the Pacific Northwest and down across the
Four Corners Region and Southern Rockies and Plains by Thursday
night and Friday. Similar to this last event, returning low level
Gulf moisture will spread across the Western Gulf Coast States
and into the Plains increasing rain chances for late week and
more likely for Friday night and Saturday with the cold front
moving into the forecast area. After passage of the upper trough
and surface cold front during the last half of the weekend will
end the rainfall and return dry weather with high pressure on the
surface and aloft dominating into the middle of next week during
the last of the month. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  37  60  34 /  10   0   0   0
MLU  62  38  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
DEQ  53  32  55  31 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  57  35  57  33 /  10   0   0   0
ELD  59  36  58  32 /  10   0   0   0
TYR  59  36  59  35 /  10   0   0   0
GGG  59  36  59  34 /  10   0   0   0
LFK  62  36  63  35 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for LAZ001>006-
     010>014-017>019-021.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

06/07/06



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