Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
FXUS64 KSHV 270305
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1005 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016
Upper level disturbance continues to churn westward from the Gulf
coast into the eastern half of our region, replacing the dry air
aloft with mid and upper level moisture. Convection has waned over
the past few hours, but a few showers continue across Toledo Bend
country with additional activity possible overnight so have kept
slight chance pops going. The only changes made were to sky cover
and minor edits will likely not change zone wording. Overall, the
forecast is in good shape for tonight. /19/
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
Drier air is quickly being replaced by a much more moist
atmosphere due in part to an upper level disturbance across the
northern gulf coast. The leading edge of this disturbance and
moisture plume is helping to set off showers and thunderstorms in
the vicinity of the MLU terminal as of this writing. Elsewhere...
isolated activity should begin dissipating over the next several
hours with the loss of daytime heating.
For the 00z taf cycle...have VCTS and tempo groups for
thunderstorms at the ELD/MLU terminals this evening. Would not be
surprised to see this activity continue during the overnight
hours...albeit a little closer to the core of the disturbance or
east of our terminal locations before redeveloping during the day
on Wed...influencing more of our terminal locations. Have
introduced VCTS to all terminal locations therefore on Wed...a
little later at our TYR/GGG terminals.
Cannot rule out some patchy fog or haze at the terminals overnight
and early Wed morning given the rapid increase in moisture as
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016/
Convection finally gaining some steam across portions of the
region this afternoon, particularly across se OK and Deep E TX.
Visible satellite imagery shows a very healthy CU field pretty
much areawide, so hoping that the coverage continues to increase.
Heat index values across the region are hovering around 100-102
at most sites, with a few sites around 105.
Weather pattern continues to be dominated under a weak ely
tropical wave and generally very weak flow aloft. This will
continue through Wed, with models indicating good precip coverage,
considering the fact that it`s late July. Deepening upper trof
will dip into our region and phase with the lingering ely wave
Thursday, which should provide better than average summertime
convective coverage. With increased cloud cover and rainfall
coverage, we should see below-normal temps for these days. Have
still not felt comfortable going with the consensus blend numbers,
as they just seem unlikely, even with clouds/rain.
Our rain chances will begin to decrease by Fri through the
weekend, as the trof shifts ewd into the mid MS River Valley.
As we move into next work week, upper ridge looks to return over
the srn plains in the wake of the upper trof. This unfortunately
means that the blazing summer heat will likely return for the
first week of August. /12/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 76 92 75 89 / 20 50 30 50
MLU 75 88 75 88 / 20 50 30 50
DEQ 74 95 74 91 / 20 50 30 50
TXK 75 92 75 90 / 20 50 30 50
ELD 75 88 74 88 / 20 50 30 50
TYR 75 94 76 94 / 20 40 20 50
GGG 75 93 76 92 / 20 50 20 50
LFK 75 90 76 93 / 20 50 30 50