Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 172354 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME CU/AC AND AN EXTENSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING S FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO S TX...WITH A LARGE SUCKER
HOLE NOTED IN A 50NM WIDE AREA OVER SW AR/NW LA/E TX. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY FILL IN WITH AN EXTENSIVE 9-11KFT CIG...ALTHOUGH LOWER CU
CIGS NEAR 4.5KFT WILL SHIFT E THIS EVENING AND THEN S
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING THE E TX TERMINALS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED -SHRA ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AFFECT CIGS/VSBYS AND WILL NOT CARRY
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. HIGH BASED MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AFTER 09Z THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING FRIDAY OVER NE LA...BUT
SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE
AC FIELD SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E BY MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY
OVER E TX/SE OK/SW AR...AND OVER WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS E TOWARDS THE MS RIVER. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL LA ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS AFTER 18Z...WHICH COULD AFFECT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS BUT AGAIN...DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE INSERTING
MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM. A SCT CU FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON FARTHER W ACROSS THE REGION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING. LT NE OR LT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NNE
5-10KTS AFTER 15Z. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM A LARGER OFFSHORE TSTM COMPLEX...HAS
BEEN DRIFTING NWD ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL LA THIS AFTN. ADJUSTED
EVENING POPS TO 20 AND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER...EXPECT RAINFALL TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT. UPPER LOW TO DIG
SE INTO INTO LOWER MS VALLEY...DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INTO AREA TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLD POPS FOR SHOWERS...AS
THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WASH OUT AND NOT AFFECT THE CURRENT
WARMING TREND UNDERWAY. HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...WITH HIGHS AT LEAST 80 FOR MUCH OF AREA BY THE WEEKEND...
UNDERNEATH UPPER RIDGE WITH A SLOWER TREND ON NEXT UPPER LVL
SYSTEM...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO KEEP SCATTERED CONVECTION WEST OF
THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY...EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF OK/TX COULD SEE A SHOWER BY
MIDDAY OR SO. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL LOW LVL DYNAMCS
COULD MEAN ISOLD STG TO SVR STORMS TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...NO INDICATIONS OF AN EASTER REPEAT OF ANY
ORGANISED SVR WX OUTBREAK ARE SEEN ATTM. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  53  76  57  80  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
MLU  56  74  56  78  61 /  30  10  10  10  10
DEQ  46  76  52  77  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  51  75  55  79  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  50  75  54  78  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
TYR  54  78  57  79  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
GGG  53  78  56  79  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  54  79  57  80  63 /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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