Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 270616
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
116 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/06Z TAFS...AN ACTIVE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE OF TSTMS TRACKING EAST JUST WEST OF TYR AS OF 06Z.
THIS LINE WILL AFFECT THE TYR/GGG/LFK TERMINALS BETWEEN 08Z-12Z
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35-50 KTS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF I-20. THIS LINE...SHOULD IT HOLD TOGETHER...WILL BE
NEAR SHV CLOSER TO 12Z WHILE TXK WILL LIKELY SEE LESSER IMPACTS
WITH MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION BEING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
INVOF OF I-20. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION WITH AT LEAST MVFR CATEGORIES LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. CONVECTION SHOULD WANE SOMEWHAT
AFTER EXITING ELD/MLU LATER ON MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING ALONG THE GULF COAST. HOWEVER...
ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL TRIGGER NEW CONVECTION LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS RETURNING FOR MOST SITES NEAR
28/00Z. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE E/NELY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN/AROUND CONVECTION.
/19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SERIES OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
MCS OVER N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW METROPLEX. BASED ON CURRENT
MOVEMENT...THE FIRST OF THESE CELLS WOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR WRN
ZONES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 05Z-06Z. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THAT THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL MERGE WITH THE MCS WHILE
STILL WEST OF OUR CWA. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD REACH OUR AREA A LITTLE
BIT LATER...LIKELY AFTER 08Z-09Z. OVERALL...THIS IS NOT ALL THAT
DIFFERENT FROM THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW SLIGHT
TWEAKS TO POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HRS.

SOME MINOR EDITS WERE ALSO MADE TO SKY GRIDS AND HOURLY TEMPS BUT
MIN TEMP FCST WAS LEFT INTACT.

UPDATED TEXT PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUED SHORTLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  60  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
MLU  56  63  47  69 /  70  70  30  10
DEQ  48  59  40  70 /  70  60  10  10
TXK  48  59  45  69 /  70  60  10  10
ELD  50  55  43  69 /  70  70  20  10
TYR  54  59  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
GGG  53  60  47  70 /  70  50  10  10
LFK  57  65  49  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19/09


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