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000
FXUS64 KSHV 051037
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
437 AM CST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT ENTERED THE CWA OVERNIGHT AND HAS REACHED A ARKADELPHIA
ARKANSAS TO JACKSONVILLE TEXAS LINE AS OF 10Z. STILL NO
PRECIPITATION WITH THE SYSTEM AS THE UPPER TROUGH JUST REACHING
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE TROUGH SHOULD DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES BY 00Z FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL GET THE MOISTURE TRAIN
STARTED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...BUT RAIN SHOULD INCREASE IN ERNEST ACROSS THE
CWA THIS EVENING. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TODAY...BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO FREEZING
RAIN. THIS WILL HAPPEN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DUE TO EXPECTED COLD AIR DAMMING IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...THINK MOST OF AREA WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. ALL MODELS FOLLOW THIS SCENARIO...SO HAVE
BACKED OF THE ONSET OF THE ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM TONIGHT.
THE AREA EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING WILL INCLUDE SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA... ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES IN THE ICE STORM WARNING
AREA WILL BECOME LOCKED NEAR OR JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...THUS ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY NOT BE THAT
SIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER ONE OR TWO DEGREES WILL DETERMINE THIS...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE QUARTER INCH ACCUMULATIONS. THE REMAINDER
OF THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST OF TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE RAIN AREA WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FALLING
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES VERY LITTLE...
ALLOWING A RETURN OF RAIN TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW. FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE RAIN PICKS BACK UP...SO
MUCH OF THE CWA HAS A GOOD CHANCE FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE WEEKEND...SO THE RAIN AMOUNTS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH. THE TROUGH FINALLY
KICKS EAST ON MONDAY...LEAVING A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG A KTYR/KTXK/KADF LINE WILL MAKE ITS
WAY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO
PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PD. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING...MAINLY BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN INCREASE BY TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND BEYOND. THE VERY COLD
AIRMASS THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT MAY BRING
-FZRA...MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND N OF A KTYR/KTXK LINE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GUSTY NWLY WINDS AFTER FROPA
AREAWIDE...TURING MORE NELY BY FRIDAY MORNING. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  60  38  38  33  34 /  50 100 100  20  50
MLU  67  40  41  32  35 /  50  80 100  40  50
DEQ  45  33  34  20  30 /  80 100 100  10  20
TXK  49  33  34  22  28 /  70 100 100  10  40
ELD  59  36  37  28  32 /  70 100 100  20  40
TYR  46  33  34  28  31 /  50 100 100  10  50
GGG  51  36  36  30  31 /  50 100 100  10  50
LFK  64  42  43  35  36 /  40  70 100  30  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070-071.

LA...NONE.
OK...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...ICE STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124-125-136.

&&

$$

14/12