


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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119 FXUS64 KSHV 111633 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 - Overall trend of less diurnally driven convection will continue today. - Rain chances increase slightly for the upcoming weekend with a slight risk for excessive rainfall across portions of southeast Texas and adjacent counties in Arkansas and Texas on Sunday. - Near triple digit temperatures will be possible through much of next week and with critical daytime heat indices, Heat Advisories will likely become necessary. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1044 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 An upper-level ridge across the Bahamas will gradually retrograde west allowing for a warming trend across the ArkLaTex with temperatures nearing the triple digits aross portions of north Louisiana by Tuesday into Wednesday. However, along the western periphery of the ridge, across mainly southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties in Texas and Arkansas, a lingering upper-level trough will serve as the focus for periods of convection across these areas from Saturday through Monday night. A mesoscale low developing within the broader trough axis will linger across central Oklahoma Saturday night, drifting northeast into Missouri on Sunday. This feature could be the source for excessive rainfall across portions of mainly southeast Oklahoma and adjacent counties in Texas and Arkansas on Saturday night into Sunday. However, excessive rainfall threat is forecast to diminish by Sunday afternoon onward as upper-level support migrates east into the Ohio River Valley. Because of the uncertainty in forecasting the nuances of mesoscale factors that could contribute to excessive rainfall, adjustments to the excessive rainfall forecast can be expected through the weekend. Otherwise, heat headlines can be expected across portions of the ArkLaTex from late in the weekend onward as heat index values approach 105 degrees. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025 For the 11/12Z TAFs, brief reductions to MVFR/IFR CIGs will be possible at east Texas terminals near daybreak, rebounding to VFR into the midmorning. Otherwise, looking for widespread Cu field development by late morning, settling at 5000 ft during the afternoon. Scattered afternoon storms may be possible for our eastern terminals, but confidence is not yet high enough to carry in prevailing conditions. Southwest winds will increase to sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts during the afternoon, with gusts of up to 20 kts possible, particularly north and west. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1146 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Spotter activation will not be necessary today through tonight. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 96 77 95 77 / 20 10 50 10 MLU 96 75 96 75 / 40 10 30 10 DEQ 94 72 92 71 / 0 10 40 40 TXK 97 76 97 75 / 0 10 40 30 ELD 95 74 95 73 / 20 10 40 10 TYR 94 75 94 74 / 10 10 40 20 GGG 95 74 94 74 / 20 10 50 20 LFK 94 74 94 74 / 40 10 70 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...26