Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 011140
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
640 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
DIFFICULT TERMINAL FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH INCREASING COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 11Z WAS
LOCATED NEAR A PBF...ELD...JAS LINE AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF TSTMS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAVE
INCREASED ALL NIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCING THE MLU
TERMINAL SHORTLY. EAST OF THE MLU TERMINALS...SKIES HAVE CLEARED
NICELY EXCEPT AT THE ELD TERMINAL WHERE THE AIRPORT IS RIGHT ON
THE EDGE OF IFR CEILINGS AND UNLIMITED CEILINGS. A LOOP OF IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE TOLEDO BEND
RESERVOIR SOUTH AND WEST TO NEAR HGX ARE BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK TO
THE NORTH AGAIN WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CLEARING TREND WILL BE
BRIEF TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK INTO THE
LFK/GGG/SHV TERMINALS LATER THIS MORNING AS A RESULT.

AS THE MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT BACK NORTH...SO WILL THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES AND THAT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVING THIS WAY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...LOOK FOR AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
AFFECTING THE I-20 TERMINALS OF NE TX/N LA THIS AFTERNOON BUT
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.

N TO NE WINDS IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY WILL BECOME
VARIABLE AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL AND EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY
BACK TO THE NORTH.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
ONGOING ISOLD CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD FRONT
LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR LUFKIN TO EL DORADO. FRONT IS FCST
TO BECOME MORE W-E ORIENTED AND STALL AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
CONTINUES TO LIFT NEWD. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AS THE DISTURBED SW FLOW ALOFT
RIDES OVER THE BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...BUT THIS COULD
POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR DEEP E TX
COUNTIES AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL LA PARISHES THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
HAS THIS AREA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL
AXIS AND THE FACT THAT THESE AREAS DID NOT RECEIVE MUCH RAINFALL
WITH THE FRI/SAT EVENT...WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THIS
SHIFT.

UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DIG SEWD THROUGH
MONDAY...WHICH WILL FORCE THE FRONT AND THE RAINFALL SEWD AND OUT
OF OUR REGION. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY WHICH WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE RAINFALL FOR A WHILE.
THIS WILL ALSO REINFORCE A COOL AIRMASS IN PLACE...KEEPING OUR
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP IN THE WAKE THE UPPER TROF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES JUST E OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
SPELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FCST PD. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM TO
AND POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WE GO SEVERAL DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  62  73  54 /  30  60  60  20
MLU  83  65  74  56 /  50  60  70  30
DEQ  78  55  70  48 /  10  60  40  10
TXK  81  59  71  51 /  10  60  50  10
ELD  83  61  71  53 /  30  60  60  20
TYR  80  59  71  51 /  30  60  50  10
GGG  83  61  72  53 /  30  60  50  20
LFK  83  65  75  56 /  50  60  60  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12/13



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