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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260555
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1155 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CIGS CLEARING FM W TO SE WITH VSBY ISSUES ENSUEING. SOME
FZR FG WHERE SKC FOR A WHILE. PATCHY LIFR/VLIFR CIGS AND VSBY BY
DAYBREAK. SFC AIR IS FCST TO GO JUST BELOW FRZ EVERYWHERE EXCEPT
KLFK. THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS IS APPROACHING KGGG/KSHV/KELD ONLY
LIKELY TO ACCELERATE FOG FORMATION. SFC WINDS ARE NW 5KTS OR CALM.
L/V WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ALSO AID FOG UNTIL DAYBREAK. ALOFT OUR
CLIMB WINDS ARE NW SLOWLY INCREASING IN SPEED TO 10-50KT BY FL160.
IFR/MVFR ALL MORNING...BUT MVFR/VFR SLOWLY FILTERING IN AFT 18Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE CLEARING LINE OF THE LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS
SE INTO FAR SRN AR AND ERN TX...ALTHOUGH PATCHY FZFG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE CLEARED AREAS GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK IN PLACE/HIGH
BNDRY LYR RH/S/LIGHT WINDS. THE LATEST FEW FRAMES OF THE 11-3.9U
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO SHIFT MORE
S THAN SE...IN RESPONSE TO A SHIFT IN BNDRY LYR WINDS THAT THE 00Z WRF
HAS PICKED UP ON...WHICH MAY VEER MORE NERLY OVER NW LA/EXTREME ERN TX
LATE. THUS...THOSE AREAS W OF GGG THAT ARE CLEAR NOW MAY FILL BACK IN
WITH THIS STRATUS LATE. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE ALSO DEPICTS AN
INCREASING LAYER OF ELEVATED MOISTURE SHIFTING QUICKLY E ALONG/N OF
THE RED RIVER OF N TX...ALONG THE BASE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVING SE
ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES. THIS WILL DRIVE A REINFORCEMENT OF ARCTIC AIR
SWD INTO THE AREA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY...BUT NOT IN TIME TO DETER
ANY POTENTIAL FZFG DEVELOPMENT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF
BLACK ICE FROM THE MELTING SNOW/SLUSH...PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES AS WELL AS SOME OF THE AREA ROADWAYS.

HAVE MADE THE NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY CONDITIONS PER THE
CURRENT/EXPECTED TRENDS...AND DID MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...AS
AREAS ACROSS DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA MAY STAY JUST ABOVE FREEZING AS THE
LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY HANG TOUGH OVER THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
TOOK OUT MENTION OF -SN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE NW
ZONES AS FORCING WILL BE QUITE WEAK AND THE MOISTURE SHALLOW ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC AIR REINFORCEMENT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  30  42  26  40  28 /  10  10   0   0   0
MLU  30  42  24  39  26 /  10  10   0   0   0
DEQ  26  36  20  33  24 /  10  10   0  20  20
TXK  27  38  23  35  25 /  10  10   0  20  20
ELD  27  40  23  36  25 /  10  10   0   0   0
TYR  27  40  26  38  29 /   0  10   0  20  20
GGG  29  42  27  39  28 /   0  10   0   0  20
LFK  34  49  31  45  32 /  10  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15