Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 301244
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
744 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
BRIEF PATCHY MIST/BR RESTRICTING VISIBILITY EARLY GIVING WAY TO
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH CLOUDS AND CEILINGS OF 4-5 KFT AND
AROUND 9 KFT THIS MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF VCSH FOR SOME OF THE TERMINALS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WITH UPPER RIDGE ALOFT
LOOSING INFLUENCE AS DISTURBANCES ALOFT MOVE INTO IT...RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN INTO THE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY WILL BE RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS SURFACE WINDS
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EXPECTED TO RETURN MVFR CEILINGS AND PATCHY
MIST/BR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS STILL CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS TX/OK IN RESPONSE TO SOME
TROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO AN UPPER TROF SHIFTING
NEWRD FROM THE ROCKIES. THE WEAKENING RIDGE CONTINUE TO FLATTEN
OUT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS THE UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED TO THE WEST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
ISOLD AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS WITH THE SEA BREEZE BECOMING A BIT
MORE ACTIVE. SHORT RANGE PROGS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING SOME WEAK UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO HAVE OPTED TO CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AREA WIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE.

LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FIRM
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
OUR FAR NRN AREAS BY THURSDAY EVENING AND QUICKLY ACCELERATE
THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY MORNING. A LINE OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
SHWRS AND TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT
AND PROGRESS STEADILY SEWRD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR SOME ISOLD SEVERE
WINDS AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE CURRENT DAY 3 OUTLOOK FROM SPC. OTHER
THREATS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME BUT ISOLD POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. THE FRONT SHOULD
CLEAR THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM NW TO SE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

COOLER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THE
START OF NEXT WORK WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  91  71  90  73  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
MLU  91  69  90  71  90 /  10  20  20  10  30
DEQ  87  65  88  70  85 /  10  20  20  10  60
TXK  88  68  88  72  88 /  10  20  20  10  40
ELD  89  66  88  71  89 /  10  20  20  10  30
TYR  89  71  89  74  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
GGG  90  70  89  72  90 /  20  20  20  10  30
LFK  92  72  91  74  91 /  20  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06




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