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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220240
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
940 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
CU FIELD SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SKC EXPECTED FOR THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECTING
SOME PATCHY FOG TO BEGIN DEVELOPING...MAINLY AT THE LFK/MLU/ELD
TERMINALS WITH VSBYS AT OR NEAR 3-5 MILES. CANNOT RULE OUT THE LFK
TERMINAL GOING DOWN TO BELOW 2 MILES TOWARDS DAWN ON TUESDAY.

LOOK FOR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
EXCEPT FOR A MOSTLY EAST TO NORTHEAST COMPONENT PART OF THE DAY
TUESDAY. ANOTHER EXPANSIVE CU FIELD SHOULD FORM WITH MORNING
HEATING ON TUESDAY AS WELL.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 248 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH HAS FINALLY LIFTED TO THE NE...AND LOW LVL INVERSION
HAS DISAPPEARED...ALLOWING FOR DIMINISHED CLOUDS TODAY AND RAPID
WARMING AS EXPECTED THIS TIME OF YEAR. SCATTERED CU FIELD AREAWIDE
TO DIMINISH WITH SETTING SUN. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR WITH
RADIATION COOLING...ESPECIALLY IN SLIGHTLY LESS WARM SW AR
PORTIONS...BUT NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN ZONES.
CU FIELDS TOMORROW MAY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN CWA...WITH DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW PULLING IN DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...A CUT OFF LOW OVER
CENTRAL GULF COAST...WILL DRIFT WWD JUST NORTH OF COASTLINE.
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES BACK SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INVOK OF THIS
LOW...WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS...MAINLY SOUTH...BY WEDNESDAY AS LOW
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE INTO AREA. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO
AREA TO FILL THE VOID LEFT BY UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH TEXAS. DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...THRU THE WEEKEND...WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
ANY CONVECTION WILL RIDE THE RIM OF THE RIDGE...POSSIBLY CATCHING
NORTHERN OR EASTERN EDGES OF CWA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE...AS SHEAR AXIS BLOCKS GULF FLOW ONSHORE. THUS...DESPITE
STEEP LAPSE RATES INTO THE WEEKEND...ANY CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ISOLD AT BEST.

/VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  94  72  96  75 /   0  10  10  20  20
MLU  67  93  71  94  73 /   0  20  20  20  30
DEQ  66  93  71  97  73 /   0   0   0  20  40
TXK  66  94  71  96  74 /   0   0   0  20  30
ELD  65  93  72  96  73 /   0  10  10  20  30
TYR  71  96  73  97  75 /   0  10  10  20  20
GGG  70  95  73  96  75 /   0  10  10  20  20
LFK  72  95  74  94  76 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$