Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 162046
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
246 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Pacific cool front making very slow progress across portions of ne
TX north of I-20, into extreme sw AR. Although a line of
convection has developed along front, and scattered convection in
portions of warm sector, any thunder has been very isold.
Therefore have downplayed tstms for next couple of days, as
overall instability will change little near this frontal zone.
Reducing pops from nw this eve into Tuesday, with front returning
just slightly nwd on Wed as upper low approaches. This low will
reach the OK/KS area by early Thur, with tight gradient suggesting
stg mid/upper lvl flow around base of low. However, lack of sfc
features suggest sfc winds to remain fairly weak, and overall
weakening as pressure gradients begin to relax with current quasi
stnry front. Overall rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are
possible thru Thursday aftn with steady onslaught of near
saturated atmosphere near this boundary as well, accompanied by
deep sw flow to continue. Finally a dry day on Friday, with a
faster movg system Sat and Sat night providing another brief shot
of rain./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1133 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

AVIATION...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue across the Arklatex as
a weak frontal boundary maintains scattered showers areawide.
Mainly MVFR conditions today to become IFR overnight with rain
producing vsbys around 3SM to 5SM through 17/12Z. Otherwise, south
winds around 5 to 10 knots to become northwest behind the front
late tonight. Conditions to gradually improve to MVFR behind the
front on Tuesday. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  62  53  62 /  70  70  60  60
MLU  64  69  56  66 /  60  70  60  60
DEQ  44  59  44  56 /  10  20  40  50
TXK  49  61  48  57 /  30  30  60  60
ELD  55  62  50  60 /  70  70  60  60
TYR  50  61  50  60 /  30  30  60  60
GGG  52  62  51  61 /  40  40  60  60
LFK  59  63  56  67 /  70  70  60  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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