Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240250
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
950 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROF. THAT WILL SPELL MOSTLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOW 50S AREA-WIDE. ALL IN ALL...THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE...
AND ONLY A FEW VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS WERE MADE.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 559 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ATTM. MOST
OF THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH
HAS MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINAL SITES THIS EVENING. THERE
IS SOME REMNANT 850MB MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND A NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT AT THIS LEVEL COULD
RESULT IN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE TXK/TYR/GGG
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. PREVAILED SCT050 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
AS WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AT THIS HEIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME REMNANT CLOUD
COVER NEAR 4-5KFT ONCE AGAIN BUT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN PUSHING
SOUTHWARD FROM ARKANSAS WITH ANY MORNING CU EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOK FOR VARIABLE
WINDS NEAR 4 KTS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS EXITING THE
REGION TO THE EAST. WEAK RADAR ECHOES OVER PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE LA
IS LIKELY JUST VIRGA BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THROUGH
SUNSET. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS BREAKING ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE CWA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE LATER ON TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH CLEARING SKIES
AND NEAR CALM WINDS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS ON
FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD DROP OFF INTO THE 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH SOME LOWER 50S OVER THE FAR W/SW AREAS IN E/NE TX.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

A WARMING TREND WILL CARRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SOME 10 DEGREES FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL COMING TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
GFS SOLUTION IS SLOWER IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SO
WE MAY SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHWRS/TSTMS PERSIST THROUGH LATER IN THE
WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  45  78  52  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  47  79  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  49  77  56  85  60 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  76  53  84  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  53  82  58  87  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  49  80  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  51  81  55  87  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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