Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 301820
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
120 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS THE FOURSTATE REGION AND
TERMINAL FORECAST SITES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/18Z WEDNESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...AND IN THE EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY FROM AROUND 01/09Z TO
01/14Z DUE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS NEAR 15-20 KNOTS PROVIDE MVFR
AND POSSIBLY BRIEF IFR CEILINGS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON THREE
DIFFERENT AREAS MAY SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALSO CONVECTION WITH ANOTHER AREA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND A THIRD ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS INTO LOWER
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. WINDS WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5-12 KNOTS.
/06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA FOR NOW. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE NORTH OF I-20 IS ALLOWING TEMPS TO QUICKLY WARM. LINE OF
CLOUDS SOUTH OF I-30 FROM EAST OF MOUNT PLEASANT TX TO NEAR CAMDEN
AR HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A DIFFUSE COLD FRONT. WILL BE WATCHING
THIS LINE OF CLOUDS FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION LATER
TODAY.

MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO POP/QPF/WX GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF THE FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED
TEXT PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE 30/12Z TAF PERIOD OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT INTO THE CU FIELD BY LATE
MORNING/MIDDAY. SCT CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM OVER SE AR MAY
BACKBUILD FARTHER W INTO SCNTRL AR JUST S OF A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BNDRY EXTENDING FROM NEAR PRX...TO DEQ...TO HOT AND SGT.
SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE ELD/MLU/SHV TERMINALS COULD BE AFFECTED
AFTER 16Z THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DRIFT S AND SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER N TX JUST
W OF TYR...WITH AN OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THESE STORMS NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER WOOD AND WESTERN SMITH COUNTIES. THIS BNDRY COULD
FOCUS ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AFTER 18Z AS DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...AND COULD AFFECT THE TYR/GGG
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z...WITH THESE STORMS POSSIBLY BUILDING S OVER
DEEP E TX /I.E. LFK/ LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR ONCE THE LOW STRATOCU FIELD LIFTS LATER THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT IN/NEAR THE CONVECTION. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
35KTS AND SVR TURBULENCE ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS POSSIBLY
LINGERING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SW WINDS
8-12KTS TODAY WILL BECOME SSW 5-10KTS AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS LINED UP ALONG
AN OLD OUTFLOW FROM E TX INTO CEN LA. OTHER BOUNDARIES RESIDE TO
OUR NORTH ATTEMTING THE BACKDOOR AND OUT WEST JUST ON THE FRINGE.
AIR TEMPERATURES ARE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST WITH A FEW LOWER N
OF I-30 AND DEW POINTS ARE MUGGY WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IN SEVERAL
LOCALES. THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
LAST MODEL RUN WITH POPS EVENTUALLY SLACKING LATE WEEK...BUT BACK
UP AGAIN WITH ANOTHER FRONT OR TWO FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY.
SUPER BLEND HAS BEEN BLENDED INTO EXTENDED NUMBERS WITH A WARMER
TREND SLOWLY TO UNFOLD UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  75  93  76 /  40  20  20  10
MLU  92  73  92  76 /  40  20  20  20
DEQ  92  73  92  74 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  92  75  92  76 /  30  20  20  20
ELD  91  74  92  76 /  40  20  20  20
TYR  91  74  92  75 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  92  74  92  75 /  30  20  20  10
LFK  92  74  92  75 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06



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