Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 160406
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1006 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

.UPDATE...
To increase sky coverage for the overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds are lifting back in over much of the area and will likely
have some affect on temperatures getting too much colder.
Shreveport and Ruston have both gone up last hour while
maintaining a calm wind. Other locales may follow as well with if
anything a light South wind. So we will leave lows alone with
Shreveport already having dipped to 35. No other changes at this
time. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through the 16/00Z TAF period. The
passage of an upper trough now ejecting E across the MS Valley
has thinned the cirrus shield over the region this evening, but
this will be short-lived as the cirrus/elevated AC shield over SE
TX/Srn LA begins to shift back NE later this evening/overnight
ahead of a closed low over the Gulf of CA. These elevated cigs
will begin to gradually lower from SW to NE Saturday afternoon,
with cigs ranging from 5-8kft over E TX as the low opens up/ejects
NE across the Big Bend region of SW TX. Elevated areas of -SHRA
should also begin developing after 21Z over the SW sections of E
TX, and thus have added VCSH mention for the TYR/GGG/LFK terminals
late in the TAF period as these -SHRA will rapidly develop/expand
NE into NW LA/SW AR/SE OK throughout the evening, with MVFR cigs
likely across much of E TX and portions of Ncntrl LA as the -SHRA
expands. Lt/Vrb winds this evening may become Light S over E TX
after 06Z, with SSE winds increasing to 6-12kts after 15Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Trof axis extending from srn Baja up through the Great Lakes
region continues to tap Pacific moisture, which covers much of the
srn and sern CONUS. Nwd extent of the trof to continue ewd in
progressive nrn jet, but low center over Baja will cut off
overnight tonight. This may mean some time with very little cloud
cover, which will likely result in our overnight temps remaining
very near guidance.

As we move into Saturday, another disturbance will shoot down the
W Coast around the ern periphery of the upper ridge, kicking the
Baja low and a slug of Pacific moisture newd. Initial onset of
precip for us will be more of the isentropic nature, as light ely
winds will likely be in place Saturday aftn. However, developing
sfc low will and surging WAA/low level moisture will bring
widespread convective rains to the region Saturday night through
Sunday morning. Unfortunately, the disturbance will move through
rather quickly, and widespread rainfall amounts of only about an
inch or less are expected.

Sw flow aloft will remain, as the W Coast disturbance lingers over
AZ/NM before moving ewd Monday. Weak baroclinic zone left behind
from the weekend system will interact with disturbed sw flow, and
may bring some shwrs back to the sern portions of the region as
early as Sunday night. Models diverge on timing and precip
coverage with respect to the upper low`s ewd progression. The Euro
is closed, slower, and wetter, while the Canadian and GFS are
weaker, more progressive, and keep much of the associated
convection e of our region. Have tried to give some credence to
both solutions and kept PoPs more conservative than the blends
through midweek. With virtually no tap into colder Canadian air,
temperatures will warm this weekend to well above normal and
remain that way through the fcst pd. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  35  59  44  66 /   0  20  90  10
MLU  31  59  45  66 /   0  10  90  50
DEQ  27  60  41  58 /   0  10  80  10
TXK  32  58  43  60 /   0  10  90  10
ELD  30  59  42  64 /   0  10  90  30
TYR  35  59  44  65 /   0  30  90  10
GGG  33  60  42  65 /   0  20  90  10
LFK  36  59  44  67 /   0  30  90  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/15/12



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