Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261512
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1012 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast package looks on track, so no changes planned for
the morning/afternoon. A large complex of showers...with a few
embedded t-storms...will continue to move to the NE out of north
and central Texas. Showers/T-storms will continue to develop
across the region today, with the best chances across East Texas,
SW Arkansas, and SE Oklahoma. The Storm Prediction Center has a
Slight Risk of severe storms west of a line from Tyler,TX to
Texarkana,AR...so can`t rule out storms with quarter size hail,
and damaging winds this afternoon/evening near and around those
areas. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 706 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

AVIATION...
For the 26/12z TAFs, low stratus is leading to patchy instances of
MVFR/IFR flight conditions, but cigs should lift into the VFR
range by 26/16z. The forecast becomes increasingly complicated as
convection moves into the area from the west by late morning and
through the afternoon. Some storms could be severe, especially
across E TX/SE OK/SW AR. This is some uncertainty regarding the
duration and eastward extent of the convection. Therefore, -TSRA
was prevailed at KTXK/KTYR/KGGG/KLFK where there is higher
confidence regarding impacts. The remainder of the TAFs still
contain mentions of VCTS. Current thinking is there should be some
decrease in coverage of precip during the overnight hours, if not
a brief break entirely. However, another round of convection
should be approaching from the west near the end of the TAF
period. In addition, rich southerly low level flow will bring more
low clouds and MVFR cigs into the region after 27/06z.

/09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 229 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A transitional weather pattern expected today with showers and
thunderstorms to increase in coverage as an upper-low across the
desert southwest begins to shift northeast. Southwest flow aloft
ahead of the upper-low to allow for enhanced atmospheric moisture
to maintain mostly cloudy skies throughout the day.

With decent height falls ahead of the approaching upper-low,
rainfall to continue into Friday with some areas possibly
experiencing up to 4 inches, mainly across Southeast Oklahoma,
Northeast Texas, and extreme Southwest Arkansas.

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is possible today and Friday
mainly across mainly Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and
Southwest Arkansas. Instability associated with enhanced low-
level moisture ahead of a dry line across Texas, an approaching
upper-low, and a strong low-level jet are the primary factors
contributing to severe potential. Hail and damaging winds will be
the main threat with isolated tornadoes possible.

Upper ridge to rebuild across the region on Saturday into Sunday
bringing drier conditions to the region. A weak upper-level
disturbance to bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
region on Monday afternoon. Upper-level ridge to shift east by
midweek maintaining a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the forecast period.

Temperatures to range from highs in the upper 80s and lows around
70 through the weekend. Could see high temperatures around 90
across the region early next week through the end of the forecast
period. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  72  81  70 /  50  40  70  60
MLU  88  72  84  69 /  40  40  50  40
DEQ  83  69  77  67 /  50  70  80  70
TXK  84  70  79  68 /  50  60  80  60
ELD  86  70  81  67 /  50  50  60  60
TYR  84  72  80  70 /  50  60  80  60
GGG  85  71  80  69 /  50  50  70  60
LFK  85  73  82  70 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20


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