Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

521
FXUS64 KSHV 200502
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1102 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
Difficult determining the fog potential tonight as cloud cover is
trying to fill back in across our region and that would of course
limit fog potential. Ceilings are ranging from 5hdft to near 2kft
with KSHV VAD Wind Profiler indicating 20kts from the SW at 1kft
and 35kts at 2kft. Given the strengthening pressure gradient in
place...one would think that fog should not be that big of a
problem but given our saturated soils from previous rainfall...if
any one location can remain clear enough from cloud cover...then
fog will set in...especially across across our N LA terminal
locations as well as the ELD and LFK terminal. Will hedge my bets
on the cloud cover filling in and limiting the potential for dense
fog.

Have the LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings clearing out from west to east
during the post sunrise morning hours on Friday with ssw winds
gusting at times upwards of 20kts at the TYR/GGG/TXK terminals.
Low level cloud cover will be moving back in quickly from
southwest to northeast over the last 3 hours or so of the 06z taf
cycle with the possibility of -TSRA at the LFK terminal as forcing
increases once again with a strong disturbance moving our way in
strengthening southwest flow aloft.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1013 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

UPDATE...
To expand fog and speed up for some of the four state area.

DISCUSSION...
There are a few spots with some patchy dense fog. Stars early and
now clouds perhaps redeveloping in the lower levels with our
sounding near saturation at 2.7kft. Also, surface T/Td is close to
saturation in a few spots. We have Partly to Mostly cloudy skies
which will linger overnight with more fog especially where most
rain was recent or was heavy and moisture in the soil is still
elevated. Patchy dense fog with areas more likely on the recent
rains that will likely linger into the morning rush. It is
possible that more clouds could beat the fog and make for a less
hazardous scenario. In either case the temperatures will not budge
much more than a few degrees and lows still look to be on
target...sky willing. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  54  75  56  71 /  10  10  30  40
MLU  54  74  59  73 /  10  10  40  50
DEQ  49  71  48  67 /  10  10  20  30
TXK  52  72  52  69 /  10  10  30  30
ELD  51  72  56  70 /  10  10  20  40
TYR  52  76  54  69 /   0  10  30  40
GGG  53  76  56  70 /  10  10  30  40
LFK  55  78  58  72 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/13



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.