Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 051144
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
544 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREA
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING. PRECIP WILL BE MOVING EWD
TODAY...AND WILL COME TO AN END AT ALL TERMINALS AROUND OR JUST
AFTER 18Z. MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PRECIP...BUT
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. NLY WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY...AND BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS AREAWIDE CURRENTLY AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH
MOST PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 20
STILL CONTINUING THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STILL HOVERING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. RAIN
REMAINS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA. EXPECTING RAIN TO TRANSITION
TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET BY DAYBREAK ACROSS THESE AREAS.

WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION. BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLATEX. EXPECT
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH PORTIONS OF THE
WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES BEING UPDATED
ACCORDING AS CONDITIONS CLEAR FROM THE WEST.

MODELS SUGGEST NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS DEEP EAST TEXAS...NORTH
LOUISIANA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE
SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH 4 PM AND CANCELLED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING
FOR COLD CONDITIONS. COULD SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WITH ALL OTHER AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID
20S. HELD OFF ON ISSUING A HARD FREEZE WARNING BECAUSE TEMPS STILL
FORECAST TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES TOO WARM TO JUSTIFY.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ALLOWING FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND ACROSS THE REGION. COULD SEE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS AN UNSETTLED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  39  24  46  27  57 /  40  10  10  10  10
MLU  35  21  42  25  53 /  70  10  10  10  10
DEQ  38  19  45  22  55 /  10  10  10  10  10
TXK  36  21  43  25  54 /  20  10  10  10  10
ELD  36  19  41  25  53 /  50  10  10  10  10
TYR  39  24  47  28  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  38  24  47  28  56 /  40  10  10  10  10
LFK  43  26  51  29  57 /  40  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ073.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-014.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ013-019>022.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ010>012-017-018.

OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ125-126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-138.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ136-137-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

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