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000
FXUS64 KSHV 312017
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
317 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FINALLY GETTING SOME CONVECTION GOING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SFC
LOW /NOW CENTERED JUST W OF TYLER/ AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT PUSH
SEWD. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE SFC LOW
HAS ALLOWED FOR INCREASED INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY HAS MARKEDLY INCREASED. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MIGRATE EWD TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE THE FRONT BECOMES
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL LA. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT BEGIN AN OVERALL WARMING
TREND.

UPPER TROF TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...EVEN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH SEWD IN THE
FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN OVER OUR SERN AREAS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BEFORE BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY FORCED AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WE SHOULD ALSO SEE A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS WITH THE ABSENCE OF ANY MORE COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...MAINTAINED VCTS WITH TEMPO -TSRA ACROSS AREA TERMINALS.
HOWEVER...ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING MAY BE NECESSARY THROUGH
AMENDMENTS AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS. CEILINGS TO BECOME IFR/LIFR
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WINDS TO REMAIN BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. /05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  83  69  85  69 /  50  30  20  20  10
MLU  67  84  67  86  67 /  60  40  30  30  20
DEQ  65  79  65  85  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
TXK  65  80  66  85  66 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  65  81  65  84  66 /  50  30  10  20  10
TYR  68  84  68  86  70 /  30  20  10  10  10
GGG  69  83  68  86  68 /  30  20  10  10  10
LFK  71  87  70  90  71 /  50  20  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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