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000
FXUS64 KSHV 202129
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
429 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE
EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG A
DRY LINE OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. THE WINDS
WILL LOWER SOME DURING THE EVENING WITH SPEEDS JUST BELOW THE
LAKE WIND CRITERIA FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING
AROUND THE BASE AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AROUND A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTA/S WILL SEND SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATER DURING THE NIGHT.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY..
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE HIGH AND INTO THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO OVER ONE AND ONE HALF TO NEAR ONE AND THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ALONG WITH DISTURBANCES RIDING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND A STRONG LLJ FEEDING INTO THE AREA EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH AND DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES ON TUESDAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS THAT REACH SEVERE
LEVELS OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS NEAR THE RED RIVER IN
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. MOST OF THE FOUR STATE REGION HAS BEEN
PLACED IN A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. THE
UPPER CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
THE FOUR STATE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN RESULTING IN MAINLY JUST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. /06/

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS AND MVFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING.
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL OK/N TX MAY BEGIN TO
AFFECT LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST TAF SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20
WILL LIKELY BE AFFECTED BY CONVECTION BEFORE THE END OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. /096/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  88  69  86  68 /  20  50  70  40  20
MLU  71  90  70  85  67 /  10  30  60  60  20
DEQ  70  82  65  86  65 /  50  70  70  10  20
TXK  71  85  67  86  67 /  50  70  70  20  20
ELD  71  87  68  86  66 /  20  50  70  40  20
TYR  72  87  69  86  69 /  20  50  70  30  10
GGG  72  88  69  86  69 /  20  50  70  30  10
LFK  72  91  71  89  69 /  10  30  60  60  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001-002-010-011-017.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/09