Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 050431
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1131 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.AVIATION...
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS TO BEGIN THE 05/06Z TAF PERIOD...
HOWEVER...AFTER 08Z... SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING
MVFR CEILINGS INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL PERSIST UNTIL AROUND
15Z. SOME PATCHY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOME EAST TEXAS TERMINALS.
THE CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO LOW VFR AFTER 15Z...AND MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN SCT TO BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 KFT...
WITH LOWEST CLOUD LEVELS OVER EAST TEXAS. WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS...SPREADING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE
RED RIVER BY LATER IN THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 KTS TONIGHT
WILL INCREASE AFTER 15Z TUESDAY WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 12 AND 16 KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUST TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
MORE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO S AR AND EVEN DEEP E TX. REMOVED
SOUTH OF I-20 IN N LA.

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN MANY LOCALES...SO WE
HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A BIT AT MANY SITES...BUT STILL SOME LOW TO
MID 60S. AFTER LAST NIGHT...DECIDED TO GO A BIT UNDER GUIDANCE
THIS EVENING DROPPING OUR NUMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO MOST EVERYWHERE.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTION ON ITS LAST LEG IN N LA...BUT NOW INTO S AR
AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN DEEP EAST TEXAS TOO AS
THE OUTFLOW AND EASTERLY WAVE WORK ACROSS THE STATE LINE DOWN INTO
TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY AND DEEP EAST TX. WE WILL LIKELY UPDATE ONCE
MORE TO REMOVE OVERNIGHT WORDING AS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...
EXPANDED POPS OVER NORTH LOUISIANA FOR ANOTHER HOUR AND A HALF.

DISCUSSION...
WE WILL LIKELY LOOK AT OVERNIGHT TEMPS LATER THIS EVENING WHEN
CONVECTION FINALLY GOES WE WILL HAVE TO REMOVE SUCH WORDING...BUT
FOR NOW HAD TO EXPAND POPS AS APPRECIABLE RAIN AREAS MOVING INTO
I-20 CORRIDOR BETWEEN ARCADIA...RUSTON AND MONROE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
BY COMPARISON TO PREVIOUS DAYS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE REGION. A FEW SPOTTY SHWRS/TSTMS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY CREEPING
NWRD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NORTH OF
THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SE LA AND STRADDLING THE MS RIVER IN EXTREME
E CNTRL LA. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
FAR SERN LA PARISHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE CONVECTION DIES
OFF AS HEATING IS LOST.

THE TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE FOR SLIGHTLY
BETTER RAIN CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR WRN HALF AS THE UPPER
RIDGE INCHES A BIT FARTHER EAST. MOST CONVECTION WILL BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN DURING OUR PEAK HEATING HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL BEING STEERED TO OUR NW WITH AN UPPER
TROF EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. HENCE...SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER OUR BASES FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF
AND COLD FRONT APPROACHING. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE OVER
OUR WRN CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY WITH OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHWRS AND
TSTMS. MEANWHILE...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH LOWS CONSIDERABLY WARMER IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  62  83  64  82 /  10  20  20  30
MLU  63  84  62  83 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  58  81  64  79 /  10  20  20  30
TXK  60  82  64  81 /  10  20  20  30
ELD  61  84  62  82 /  10  10  10  20
TYR  60  81  65  81 /  10  30  30  40
GGG  61  81  65  81 /  10  30  30  40
LFK  63  82  66  82 /  20  30  30  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$


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