Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 101640
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1040 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NW FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR CLEAR
SKIES AND A GOOD WARM UP TODAY INTO THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S FOR MOST
AREAS. FCST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK FOR THIS...SO WILL NOT BE
MAKING ANY CHANGES ATTM. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10/16Z AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 10/18Z. TYR/GGG COULD EXPERIENCE
WINDS APPROACHING 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL
MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS
TO CONTINUE AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 11/00Z. /05/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
RESULTING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SERIES OF DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH SATURDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCING THE WARMING TREND AHEAD
OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT MAY
BECOME QUASI STATIONARY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-20 COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S THURSDAY.
THIS FIRST FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE NO MOISTURE TO GENERATE PRECIP SO THE ONLY
REAL IMPACT WILL BE TO COOL TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES FOR
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR SEASONAL NORMS FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.

DURING THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST WILL WEAKEN
WHILE THE EASTERN TROUGH MOVES AWAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL AND PROGRESSIVE USHERING A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE 00Z
GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME
DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS OF
MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN INCREASING WITH THESE
RAIN CHANCES SO POPS WERE INCREASED A BIT WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FLOW AND LIMITED TIME
AVAILABLE TO BUILD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...I AM STILL HESITANT TO
BUY INTO WIDESPREAD QPF AMOUNTS ABOVE ONE INCH IN THE DAY 5-6 TIME
FRAME. THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE COURSE RESOLUTION OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OR THEIR ATTEMPT TO DEPICT WIDESPREAD PRECIP.
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE RATHER POTENT AND TIMED WELL
WITH THE FRONT SO PRECIP COVERAGE COULD VERY WELL BE HIGH...BUT
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM STILL MAKES ME DOUBT QPF AMOUNTS.

DRY WEATHER QUICKLY RETURNS AFTER MONDAY AS THE WESTERN RIDGE
BUILDS AND MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN THE
RETURN OF RAIN...EVENTUALLY. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  46  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  57  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  57  37  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  59  43  65  37 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  58  41  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  66  48  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  64  48  73  41 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  65  47  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

12


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