Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 230245
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
945 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Much of the deeper convection has diminished over Ncntrl LA/Scntrl
AR as the air mass in these areas has been worked over, although
lingering areas of -RA remain mainly from the remnant anvils of
these storms given the lack of cigs noted in the sfc obs, and the
10kft cig at ELD. This should continue to gradually diminish
through late evening, and thus have retained slight chance pops
for these areas through 06Z with a dry forecast expected through
the remainder of the night. Still seeing a considerable amount of
convective debris over much of SW AR/N LA/extreme Ern TX this
evening, with this expected to linger through much of the night
especially over S AR/N LA. This cloud canopy may influence the min
temp forecast overnight over areas that did not receive sct rains
earlier this afternoon, namely extreme NW LA and portions of SW
AR. In addition, S winds 5-8kts look to persist across the Wrn
sections of E TX tonight, which in addition to some increase in
the elevated cloud cover, should also help to hold up temps
overnight as well, especially in the more urban areas.

Did trim back pops Sunday morning to mostly slight chance for all
but Deep E TX/Srn sections of Ncntrl LA closer to the weak H500
low near the extreme SE TX/SW LA coast, as diurnal heating will
once again play a key role in initiating convection, becoming more
sct and outflow dependent during the afternoon especially over
Deep E TX/much of N LA and portions of Scntrl AR. Could see
marginal Heat Advisory criteria for McCurtain County OK and the
Nrn sections of SW AR Sunday afternoon as temps here should climb
back into the mid 90s with only isolated convection coverage, but
will allow the mid shift to evaluate the new suite of 00Z model
data and coordinate with the WFO`s to our N to determine whether
an advisory will be needed or not.

Zone update already out...grids will be available shortly.

15

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 23/00z TAFs, scattered convection continues to slowly move
west across portions of Southern Arkansas and North Central
Louisiana. Much of this activity has generally been east of a line
from KELD to KAEX. Showers and thunderstorms farther to the west
have been significantly more isolated in coverage. Similar to the
last several days, convection should gradually diminish during the
first few hours of the period. Otherwise, VFR conditions should
generally prevail, but there could be some patchy fog and MVFR
visibilities around sunrise Sunday morning where rainfall occurred
over the previous 24 hours, especially at KMLU. Isolated to widely
scattered convection is once again expected to develop areawide
during the daytime hours of Sunday.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  77  93  76  91 /  10  40  30  40
MLU  74  93  75  91 /  20  50  30  40
DEQ  74  95  75  92 /   0  30  40  40
TXK  75  94  76  90 /  10  40  30  40
ELD  74  92  75  90 /  20  40  30  40
TYR  77  93  76  92 /   0  40  30  40
GGG  77  93  76  91 /   0  40  30  40
LFK  75  92  76  93 /  10  40  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15



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