National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KSHV 060314
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
914 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

I WAS TEMPTED TO REDUCE POPS THIS EVENING BASED ON OUR CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...BUT MODELS STILL INDICATE THE BEST LIFT AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE OBSERVED AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY
FOLLOWING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT FORECAST TREND...WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING. NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO
TONIGHTS PACKAGE...SO SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

ELEVEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 06/00Z TAFS...FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS SHWRS DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MIDNIGHT. A
SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALLOW THE RAIN TO PERSIST INTO
MONDAY MORNING. KELD/KMLU WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
PRECIP THROUGH AT LEAST 06/18Z. CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM W
TO E AS THE PRECIP EXITS THE AREA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF E TX NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CST WED MAR 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCT AREAS OF -RA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM LOWER E
TX INTO WCNTRL LA...AS ISENTROPIC FORCING ALONG THE 295-300K
SURFACES HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE...WITH -RA RECENTLY REPORTED AT LFK
AND AQV. LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL ONLY INCREASE WITH TIME THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER TROUGH...DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM
THE PLAINS S INTO S TX...HAS BEGUN TO AMPLIFY AS IT APPROACHES
OUR REGION THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THIS
EVENING OVER EXTREME ERN TX/N LA/SCNTRL AR...WITH THE -SHRA
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE ERN
SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA AS THE LOW BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF. SFC TEMPS
ARE A TOUGH CALL TONIGHT...WITH AFTERNOON READINGS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 AREAWIDE...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS HAVE WARMED
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING OVER SW AR...WHICH GIVES ME A
LITTLE GREATER CONFIDENCE WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS THAT WE SHOULD
NOT SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO -FZRA/IP LATE OVER THIS AREA.
HOWEVER...AREAS TO THE NW OVER SE OK/ADJACENT SW AR NW OF I-30 MAY
STILL FALL BRIEFLY TO NEAR FREEZING LATE TONIGHT/NEAR DAYBREAK
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE WRAP-AROUND -RA IS EXPECTED TO PUSH E OF
THIS AREA AS TEMPS APPROACH THESE CRITICAL VALUES. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK THE MENTION OF WINTRY MIX TO INCLUDE THE EXTREME NW
ZONES...AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION AT BEST...WITH ANY ICING
EXPECTED TO BE PATCHY AND MAINLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
ATTM...THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING PRECLUDES ME FROM
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ATTM...ALTHOUGH THE SWING SHIFT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMP AND PRECIP TRENDS OVER THIS AREA.

THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO NEAR THE MS RIVER BY
MID/LATE MORNING THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH -SHRA NEAR THE 700-500MB
CLOSED LOW CENTER SHOULD BE NEAR MLU...AND THUS HAVE BUMPED POPS
TO LIKELY FOR THIS AREA DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDENCE AND
ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW RESULTS IN
DECREASED -SHRA TRENDS. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO BE A TOUGH CALL...WITH
THE WRAP-AROUND STRATOCU EXPECTED TO HOLD TEMPS IN CHECK ACROSS SW
AR/NCNTRL LA. HAVE TAPERED TEMPS DOWN A TAD TO JUST BELOW MOS OVER
THE ERN ZONES GIVEN THE DENSER CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR -RA TO
LINGER. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR THE SKY TO CLEAR OUT FROM W TO E
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT...BEFORE ELEVATED MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE FROM THE W FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH THAT
SHOULD AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL READINGS FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A RETURN SRLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW...WITH THE MOISTURE PROFILE DEEPENING SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL SEEP SWD INTO N TX/SE OK/WCNTRL AR. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS NEXT TROUGH OFF LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OVER SRN AZ INTO NRN OLD MX...WITH THE PRIMARY
TROUGH AXIS STILL PROGRESSING THOUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY. THE GFS HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE TROUGH/FROPA THIS
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF MAINTAINS SCT -SHRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR
THE FRONT/UPPER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE WITH THE FROPA...WITH 850MB TEMPS SUGGESTING ONLY
MINIMAL COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE CLOSED
NRN OLD MX LOW IS EXPECTED GRADUALLY SHUNT E ACROSS DEEP S TX AND
INTO THE GULF DURING THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...AND REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH S SUCH THAT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IF ANY INFLUENCE ON
OUR WEATHER OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED -SHRA OVER DEEP
E TX/NCNTRL LA.

TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO QUICKLY MODIFY EARLY NEXT WEEK BACK TO
NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN PLACE AND THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...WILL
REMAIN CONSERVATIVE ON POPS AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING WITH
THIS NEXT FRONT WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  36  53  34  66  46 /  70  20   0   0  10
MLU  38  48  35  62  44 /  80  60  10   0  10
DEQ  32  53  30  62  42 /  30  10   0   0  10
TXK  34  52  34  63  45 /  50  20   0   0  10
ELD  34  50  31  61  43 /  70  50   0   0  10
TYR  34  55  34  67  48 /  50  10   0   0  10
GGG  35  55  33  66  46 /  50  10   0   0  10
LFK  38  57  33  68  48 /  60  10   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

11