Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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629
FXUS64 KSHV 230400
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1000 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Tweak a few low temps based on dew points at this time and
expectations overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Starry night with only high thin cirrus coming which is not
likely to affect sfc temperatures much if any. Many sites will
settle down to the dew point at current and yet some valley areas
may still fall through by daybreak such as De Queen and El
Dorado. Our sounding had .28 pwat and Little Rock was nearly half
that which may even allow our dew points to fall a bit more as
high pressure settles in on NE wind and then goes calm toward
daybreak. So we have made a few changes to lows for the overnight
and not much else with trends running close to hourly thus far.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 656 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 23/00Z terminal forecast will be prevailing VFR flight
categories for all sites across the ARKLATEX that will be under
the influence of high pressure on the surface and aloft. Cloud
cover will consist of of high cirrus between 18-25 KFT overnight
and into the early half of Thursday. With the surface ridge of
high pressure moving overhead overnight, surface winds will become
light and variable and continue through much of the day Thursday.
/06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front has moved well offshore and pressure gradients have
begun to relax across northern portions of the area. Aside from
thin cirrus skirting western edges of area and movg south, near
excellent radiation cooling conditions across area expected
overnight. Dewpoints sinking into the mid 20s north of I-30 this
eve. Overnight lows upper 20s sw AR to the mid 30s east TX. Mostly
sunny on Turkey Day except for thickening cirrus in stg 40 to 50
kt northerly flow in mid and upper lvls. Ridging over Baja CA will
help maintain dry deep layer nw-n flow aloft. A weak reinforcing
cold front will move south across the area Sat helping to maintain
overnight lows in the 40s thru the wknd. Aftn highs will begin to
climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s into early next week with
the approach of a stg cold front and deep trof aloft. Most precip
will be post frontal mid week but rainfall will not be heavy with
dry air above 700 mb. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  61  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  59  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  28  62  36  69 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  31  60  37  68 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  28  59  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  34  63  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  62  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  39  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/06/07



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