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000
FXUS64 KSHV 031622
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1022 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013

.DISCUSSION...
FOG TO CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS
CLOUDS ERODE FROM THE SOUTH WITH INCREASED MIXING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. SO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
FG STILL LIFTING N WITH KTXK STILL IN THE SOUP AND KELD IS IMPROVING
VSBY...BUT CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO FOLLOW WITH MVFR PAST ISSUANCE.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THERE AREN/T HELPING...BUT SW GUSTS WORKING IN OVER
OUR SOUTH NOW. EXPECTING S/SW 8-12KTS G20KTS AND FAIR SKIES. CLIMB
WINDS ARE SW VEERING W AND 20KTS LOW LEVELS TO 70PLUS BY 25KFT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS DURING THE WEE HOURS THRU MIDDAY
WED. OUTLOOK...IS FOR ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT THURS/FRI WITH
OVERRUNNING THIS WEEKEND WITH FZR RA/IP FROM KTYR TO KELD EXPECTED.
/24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CST TUE DEC 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING...MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD OVER A RELATIVELY COLD
GROUND WAS CREATING AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM...INCLUDING ALL AREAS.
BY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT...ALLOWING
FOR SUNSHINE AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS SHOULD REACH WELL INTO THE
70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE WARM TEMPERATURE WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE INVASION OF ARCTIC
AIR HEADING THIS WAY. COLD FRONT NOW EXPECTED IN THE CWA EARLY ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE WARM UP MOST AREAS...WITH
THE FRONT REACHING NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND DEEP EAST TEXAS BY
THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED...SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH CONVECTION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE POST
FRONTAL...INCREASING IN COVERAGE ON THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH
ADVANCES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
DAKOTAS. WITH UPPER FLOW STILL SOUTHWEST ACROSS THIS REGION...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN NORTHERN AREAS. A BREAK
IN THE PRECIP EXPECTED NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER
SHOT OF MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...AGAIN BRINGING
THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
BELOW FREEZING. THE AREA MOST SUSCEPTIBLE FOR THE FREEZING RAIN
WOULD GENERALLY BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TO CROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...
EXPECT THE COLD TEMPERATURES TO LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
FOG WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VSBYS TO LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES
THROUGH AT LEAST DAYBREAK...WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ALSO EXPECTED. VSBYS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH MID MORNING...BUT CIGS WILL BE SLOW
TO FOLLOW. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY OUT
OF THE S TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS TODAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS/VSBYS WILL ONCE AGAIN SET IN TOWARDS THE
END OF THE 12Z TAF PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  58  78  63  64 /   0  10  10  20  80
MLU  74  60  77  65  66 /   0  10  10  10  70
DEQ  68  53  72  44  44 /   0  10  10  30  80
TXK  71  55  77  49  49 /   0  10  10  30  80
ELD  70  54  75  56  56 /   0  10  10  20  80
TYR  75  58  78  50  51 /   0  10  10  20  70
GGG  74  57  76  51  51 /   0  10  10  20  70
LFK  78  61  77  65  66 /   0  10  10  10  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05/24