Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 170530
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1130 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018

.AVIATION...
A mix of IFR/MVFR expected overnight as ceilings fluctuate with
cold front moving across the region. Rain, drizzle and patchy fog
expected on Saturday with IFR ceilings prevailing through much of
the day. Surface winds northeast 5-10 knots overnight becoming
light southeast early Saturday. Winds to again shift to the
northwest around 5-10 knots during the day Saturday. Drizzle to
end after 17/00Z with ceilings improving to MVFR. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 946 PM CST Fri Feb 16 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered areas of light rain are finally entering portions of
Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas north of Interstate 30.
Farther south, patchy drizzle persists. The rain will become more
widespread after midnight as a plume of moisture moves overhead.
The rain is expected to spread from northwest to southeast during
the day Saturday. Overall, PoPs look to be on track and only a few
minor edits were made.

The biggest change with this update was to the hourly diurnal
trends with temperature. The going forecast was around 6 to 10
degrees F too warm areawide compared to the latest surface obs.
Therefore, hourly temps were lowered significantly through the
remainder of the night. However, overnight low temperatures were
really only lowered by a couple of degrees in most places. Despite
the fast cooling early this evening, the rate of cooling should
slow once the rain begins. 00z soundings at KSHV and locations
upstream indicate a pretty strong inversion only about 3000 feet
above the surface. Rain falling through this layer should bring
just enough of that warm air aloft closer to the surface to slow
the rate of cooling tonight.

CN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  57  47  67 /  50  80  20  30
MLU  48  58  45  68 /  50  70  30  40
DEQ  43  55  40  61 /  90  90  10  40
TXK  44  54  44  61 /  70  90  10  40
ELD  45  53  43  63 /  60  80  20  30
TYR  47  58  48  66 /  50  60  10  30
GGG  48  58  48  67 /  50  70  20  30
LFK  53  63  52  72 /  30  70  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/CN


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