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000
FXUS64 KSHV 161525
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1025 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WARMING STRONGLY
IN VERY DRY AIRMASS. MARGINAL UPPER LVL MOISTURE TO THE WEST WILL
BRING IN THIN LAYER OF CIRRUS...WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON TEMPS. SE
WINDS INCREASING QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH A FEW GUSTS IN RED
RIVER VALLEY ALREADY AT 20 KTS. 30 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING EASILY
ACHIEVE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. NO UPDATE
NEEDED./VII/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPS HAVE RISEN WELL ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS BEEN UP FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. THUS...HAVE
CANCELLED THE FREEZE WARNINGS AND HAVE ALSO REMOVED FROST FROM THE
WX GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

AVIATION...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...THIS HAS RESULTED IN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR THE 12Z TERMINAL
PACKAGE...HAVE WENT WITH THE STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY AT THE
TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV TERMINALS WITH A FEW STRONGER GUSTS NEAR 20KTS
POSSIBLE AT THE TYR/GGG/TXK TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON.

IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONLY THIN CIRRUS MOVING QUICKLY
THIS WAY FROM THE WEST. THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE DAY
AND SHOULD THIN SOME OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING
WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND MAINLY BELOW 10KTS. /13/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO MOST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST ISSUANCE. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON
AFTER ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE FREEZE
WARNING GOING BUT WILL RE-EVALUATE AND MAY CANCEL AFTER SUNRISE IF
FREEZING TEMPS HAVE NOT BEEN REACHED IN THE WARNING AREA. COULD
SEE A FEW ISOLATED LOCATIONS FALL BELOW FREEZING BUT WIND SPEEDS
HAVE NOT DIMINISHED AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED WHICH HAS KEPT
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 30S. CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST MAY
ALSO LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PRE-DAWN
HRS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINNING TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK. THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL
ONCE AGAIN BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE ABOVE 40 DEGREES F ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE CWA.

NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. DIFFUSE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DRY
FCST WITH THE GFS NOW BEGINNING TO TREND IN THE SAME DIRECTION.
QPF SIGNALS ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE MODELS LIKELY DUE TO
VERY WEAK FORCING AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY AND THE PASSAGE OF THE S/W TROUGH WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SCT SHWRS SO WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.

UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY DRY BEFORE THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SWLY. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES MOVE
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE
SUNDAY AS SHWRS/TSTMS DEVELOP W OF THE REGION AND MOVE INTO THE
CWA DURING THE DAYTIME HRS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT
THIS TIME AS SFC BOUNDARIES WILL STILL BE WELL TO THE NW AND BEST
UPPER FORCING WILL ALSO BE N OF THE AREA. POPS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED MONDAY IN LATER FCSTS AS THE GFS/ECMWF DO NOT MOVE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL LATE MONDAY WHEN A RATHER ELONGATED
UPPER TROUGH AXIS ALSO MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. /09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  45  71  53  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
MLU  64  42  70  55  74 /   0  10  10  20  10
DEQ  64  41  67  50  76 /   0  10  10  20  10
TXK  65  42  68  51  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
ELD  63  40  69  50  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
TYR  67  49  71  55  75 /   0  10  10  20  10
GGG  66  45  71  54  73 /   0  10  10  20  10
LFK  70  49  72  55  76 /   0  10  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$