Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 200505
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1205 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014


.AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL FOR TERMINAL SITES AND AIRPORTS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ENDING AT 21/06Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHEAST FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS AND
ADJACENT SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TRAILING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ON MONDAY WILL PROVIDE FOR LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS FOR PARTS OF THE
REGION DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE AREA. LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 4-5 KFT POSSIBLE NEAR MID DAY
TO LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY MAINLY BETTER COVERAGE FOR KTXK AND
KELD...OTHERWISE MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 10-25 KFT. /06/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE CWA. MADE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO
SKY/WIND/HOURLY TEMP GRIDS BUT FCST LOOKS TO BE LARGELY ON TRACK
AND WAS KEPT INTACT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. /09/


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LONGWAVE TROF EXITS THE ERN SEABOARD. CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA IS
HELPING TO DRAW PACIFIC MOISTURE NWRD INTO W TX AND ALONG THE BIG
BEND REGION INTO S TX. HOWEVER...THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER FOR OUR REGION. THUS...EXPECT YET
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST AREAS ON MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER TROF
WILL SLIDE SWRD TOWARD THE REGION LATER ON MONDAY AND COULD HELP
INITIATE A FEW SHWRS/TSTMS JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AT MOST...IT
APPEARS THIS WILL ONLY INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR OUR NRN TIER
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD BY TUESDAY.

LONGER RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIVERGE ON LATE WEEK
SOLUTIONS AS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH A CUTOFF LOW SLIDING
SWRD WITH THE NEXT UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF THIS
TROF BUT HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS OUR
NW HALF FOR THURSDAY TO RESPECT THIS FEATURE...WITH OR WITHOUT THE
CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO WORK ITS
WAY BACK ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR
CLIMO THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 AND LOWS NEAR 50
DEGREES. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  49  79  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  46  78  51  82  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  46  76  51  79  52 /   0  10   0   0   0
TXK  47  75  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  43  75  51  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  52  79  55  81  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  48  78  52  82  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  52  81  54  83  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

06





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