Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 271542
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1042 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...SO DEW
POINTS ARE STARTING OUT 3-5 DEGREES BELOW WHAT THEY WERE AT 10 AM
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...WE SHOULD SEE DECENT MIXING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY SEND THE DEW POINTS PLUMMETING TO
AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER PARTS OF E TX. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW TUESDAY. ONLY A FEW TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEW
POINTS NEEDED...AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GRIDS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 27/12Z TAFS...PATCHY MVFR VSBYS ARE ONGOING IN A FEW
LOCATIONS INITIALLY BUT A QUICK IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY MID
MORNING AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK TROPICAL LOW IN THE NW GULF OF
MX COULD ENHANCE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION S OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON
BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WWD INTO TX. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
MORE PATCHY MVFR VSBYS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...MAINLY AT SOME OF
THE MORE FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...ELY FLOW AND LACK OF
RAINFALL IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A DRY LOW LVL AIRMASS WHICH LEADS
TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY MORNING. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN
TIER OF THE CONUS WITH REMNANTS OF TUTT LOW JUST OFF THE UPPER TX
COAST. THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN ITS DOMINANCE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
24-36 HOURS BEFORE BEING NUDGED EWD BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF
FROM THE PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...OUR TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR HIGHS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE LOW
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DIP DOWN NEAR OR EVEN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST WITH DEW
POINTS FALLING OFF INTO THE 60S THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF. THE GOOD NEWS WITH THIS SCENARIO IS THE INCREASING MOISTURE
SUPPLY COUPLED WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER TROF WILL HELP AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS AS WE MOVE AHEAD TO
FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. QPF AMOUNTS
STILL DO NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPRESSIVE ATTM WITH STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BETTER FORCING REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH.
HOWEVER...LONG TERM PROGS ARE PICKING UP ON A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN GULF BY EARLY SATURDAY AND MOVING ACROSS
THE SRN/ERN PORTIONS OF LA DURING THE DAY. THIS COULD HELP TO
ENHANCE OUR RAIN CHANCES ACROSS N LA AND S AR THROUGH SUNDAY.

AFTER THE TROF EXITS BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE AS THE UPPER RIDGE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS OUR REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCH BACK UP INTO THE LOW AND MID
90S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A SLIGHT REPRIEVE OVER THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. OUTSIDE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIM WITH
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS TO START THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  72  95  76  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
MLU  94  69  95  73  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
DEQ  94  67  93  73  91 /  10  10  20  20  40
TXK  94  69  93  74  92 /  10  10  20  20  40
ELD  94  67  94  72  93 /  10  10  20  20  30
TYR  97  73  95  75  92 /  10  10  20  20  40
GGG  96  71  95  75  92 /  10  10  20  20  40
LFK  96  72  94  76  92 /  20  20  30  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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