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025
FXUS64 KSHV 201842
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
142 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 20/18Z terminal forecast, expecting mostly VFR flight
categories to prevail until the end of the period ending at 21/18Z
with the exception of MVFR conditions in and near the scattered
thunderstorms. Have included VCTS in the terminals for this
afternoon and not beyond 21/00Z as expect them to dissipate by
then. Have placed mention in the KLFK a brief period of prevailing
MVFR between 21/13Z to 21/15Z with ceilings around 15 hnd feet.
During the daytime and early evenings cloud heights will be
around 5 kft, middle clouds around 8-12 kft and high clouds around
25 kft. Surface winds will be light and variable and light East to
Southeast. The winds increase and become more Southeast to South 5
to 10 knots on Monday. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1010 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Overall, another day influenced by the upper ridge is in store,
with temps ramping up into the mid and upper 90s. Heat Advisory
remains in effect for most areas, as humidity combined with hot
temperatures will produce heat indices over 105 degrees. Latest
hi-res model data continues to show some isold to sct convection
possible by this aftn, so have maintained 20 PoPs areawide. Have
made just a few minor adjustments to sky grids, but otherwise no
major changes. /12/

Prev DISCUSSION... /issued 424 AM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An enlongated upper ridge extending from Texas into the Southeast
United States should provide enough subsidence to suppress most
convective development today. However, an upper low moving west
along the southern periphery of the ridge in the Northern Gulf of
Mexico may provide enough onshore flow for at least a few isolated
showers or thunderstorms during peak daytime heating this
afternoon. The best chances for any convection will be across Deep
East Texas and into Central Louisiana, and any storms that do
develop will quickly dissipate early this evening. Otherwise, the
building heat will be the main story. Southerly flow off the Gulf
and partly cloudy skies will provide a sufficient combination of
high air temperatures and high humidity to result in heat index
values above 100 degrees F areawide and above 105 degrees F across
most of the area. I would not be surprised to see heat index
values above 110 degrees F in a few isolated locations, especially
the bigger cities. No changes are currently needed to the Heat
Advisory.

Monday will likely be very similar to today. The exception might
be increased convective coverage as the upper low in the Gulf will
be closer to the area. The increase in convection and associated
cloud cover may be enough to hold daytime temperatures down a
couple of degrees. However, the Heat Advisory will still likely
need extended into Monday and possibly into Tuesday for portions
of the area. With convection expected to be so isolated, a few
locations may see daytime high temperatures above 100 degrees F,
particularly today or Monday. See below for some greater detail
regarding the forecast for viewing the eclipse on Monday.

On Tuesday, sea breeze convection associated with the Gulf low,
which should be due south of Sabine Pass and due east of Corpus
Christi, TX, will mainly be limited to area south of Interstate
20. Farther north, rain chances will be increasing as a cold front
and upper trough axis moves southeast across the Plains. Showers
and thunderstorms will spread from north to south, and convection
is expected areawide on Wednesday as the front progresses
southward. Chances for convection will linger mainly across Deep
East Texas as the front stalls near the Gulf coast late in the
work week, but rain chances will return to much of the area during
the weekend as the boundary moves back northward as a warm front.
Temperatures should be cooled back into the upper 80s and lower
90s after the cold front moves across the region.

For those interested in the forecast for the total solar eclipse
on Monday, skies will be at least partly cloudy during the
eclipse, which could make viewing difficult for much of the area.
Southeast Oklahoma and Southern Arkansas will likely see the most
cloud cover. Since skies are generally expected to have 50 percent
or less of clouds, there should still be opportunities to view the
eclipse. Please make sure to take the appropriate precautions to
view the eclipse safely.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  77  97  76 /  20  10  30  10
MLU  97  75  97  75 /  20  10  30  10
DEQ  96  73  94  73 /  20  10  30  10
TXK  95  75  94  74 /  20  10  30  10
ELD  96  73  96  74 /  20  10  30  10
TYR  96  76  95  75 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  96  76  96  75 /  20  10  30  10
LFK  97  75  96  75 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-137-
     138-150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

06/12/09