Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 190137
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
837 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 19/00Z terminal forecast will prevail VFR with mainly
high clouds spreading over the Four State Region from West to East
overnight. During the late night hours likely to have patchy
mist/br developing similar to last night for Northeast Texas and
North Central Louisiana and South Central Arkansas with visibility
restrictions of 3-5 statute miles and will tempo in group of lower
visibilities from 3/4 mile in KELD and 1-2 miles in KLFK. Will
also see MVFR ceilings around 15-25 hnd feet between 19/10-19/16Z
for North Louisiana and East and Northeast Texas. Flight conditions
improving between 19/14Z-19/17Z. Surface winds will be light and
variable to light Southeast less than 7 knots overnight and
East to Southeast 5-10 knots Thursday. /06/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 300 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure has moved well east of the area, yet cloud free
skies still prevail for now. Dewpoints have risen slightly to the
upper 40s and lower 50s. Overnight lows may be slightly tricky as
pressure gradient to the west could suppress very lgt se winds
over ne TX, in combination with upper lvl clouds west of I-35
working their way towards the area. Also, an easterly wave over
the northern Gulf may bring low clouds into southern portions of
area, according to nam guidance, but not so much with gfs. Have
hedged btwn the models regarding cloud cover durg morning hours,
which could affect patchy fog development as sfc based inversion
may develop as was the case in rad cooling last night. Temps back
into mainly the lower 80s can be expected Thu and Fri with
increased upper moisture and se winds picking up close to 10 mph
durg the day. Deep upper trough approaching this wknd with first
good chance of rain in a long time and this system shaping up to
be more of a two round warm front followed by cold front scenario.
Unstable airmass Fri night and Sat with a veering wind profile
along with a unseasonally LI values around -5 suggest potential
for stg storms. However, forcing and moisture resulting in low
chance coverage for development. With main trough movg into Red
River Valley late Saturday night and movg across the area Sunday,
precip will be more widespread with one to two inches of rainfall
possible across the area. As upper trough beginning to close off
durg passage, eastern portions of area could possibly receive even
more rainfall depending on how evolution of upper trough.

Next week looking to be very dry and cloud free thru beyond end of
extended period as deep northerly flow develops on lee side of
closing off upper low. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  55  82  58  83 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  51  80  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  49  81  53  79 /   0   0   0  20
TXK  53  80  56  80 /   0   0   0  20
ELD  49  79  53  82 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  56  82  61  81 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  55  82  59  82 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  57  83  61  82 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/07



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