Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 021548
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1048 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO BUMP UP MAX
TEMPS A DEGREE OR SO TO COVER FOR WARMING IN A DRY AIRMASS.

ENJOY THE PICTURE PERFECT SPRING WEATHER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THRU THE 03/12Z FCST
CYCLE. UPPER LVL NW FLOW BRINGING THICK CIRRUS CLOUDS SWD INTO RED
RIVER VALLEY...AND HIGH BASED CUMULUS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN OVER NE
TX/NW LA. HOWEVER...MOSTLY SKC EXPECTED AFTER 03/00Z./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHICH PUSHED INTO OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
ZONES ON FRIDAY HAS JUST ABOUT WASHED OUT EARLY THIS MORNING.
STILL EXPECT LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES TODAY WITH
A RETURN TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS OUR WESTERN TWO THIRDS. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A DESCENT WARMUP WITH HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. THE ONLY THING THAT MIGHT AFFECT TEMPS TODAY IS
INCREASING CIRRUS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF AS IR IMAGERY SHOWING
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. FEEL
LIKE THIS CLOUD COVER WILL THIN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND FCST MAX
TEMPS TODAY SHOULD FALL IN LINE.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH
THAT RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER/MID MISS
VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH TO OUR
EAST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSTMS ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES MON AFTN/EVNG AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE COUNTRY WILL BECOME THE DOMINATE
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FACT THAT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST WILL RESULT IN THE GREATER PRECIPIATION
COVERAGE REMAINING ACROSS OUR WESTERN MOST ZONES THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIODS AS WELL. NOT SEEING ANY FRONTAL FORCING THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS THE FLOW ALOFT DOES NOT SUPPORT ANY FRONTAL
INTRUSIONS...THUS CONVECTION WILL LARGELY BE BASED ON DAYTIME
HEATING INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND A LOW CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST
FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION TIED TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BUT
AGAIN...BEST FORCING APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF OUR
WESTERN MOST ZONES.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  58  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
MLU  82  56  83  57 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  80  53  80  56 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  81  56  83  60 /   0   0   0  10
ELD  81  54  82  57 /   0   0   0  10
TYR  84  59  83  60 /   0   0  10  10
GGG  83  57  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
LFK  86  58  84  60 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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