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000
FXUS64 KSHV 230259
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
959 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Well slight pops about to come to an end with one shower near Alto
and one near Nacogdoches. So we will send the zones out again
after the top of hour as updated pop was for 00-03z and thus
removing the mention of any slight chance. No other changes needed
at this time. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 652 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

UPDATE...
To add a slight pop over the southern tier of co/pa and add a.m. fog

DISCUSSION...
The sea breeze is nosing into deep E TX this early evening with
another likewise segment is a bit farther SE, but approaching
Toledo bend country; right along I-49 up toward Natchitoches for
a few hours. Any further chance for rain will soon be dealing with
a lack of heating. Also, we did add some patchy fog in for the
overnight and early part of Friday just about area wide. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

AVIATION...
Light and variable winds overnight to become south at 5 to 10
knots across area terminals on Friday. Increased low-level
moisture to allow for MVFR ceilings across area terminals with
IFR ceilings and visibilities possible specifically across East
Texas terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected on Friday with
4kft to 6kft cu field possible. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 219 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Mostly clear skies and lgt easterly winds continue under influence
of prolonged ridging across the area, with the exception of a few
cumulus clods forming across mainly east TX lakes portions of the
area. Despite unseasonally hot temps in the lower to mid 90s, humidities
have fortunately remained on the low side past few days. However,
as southerly winds occur invok a large upper trough to the west,
dewpoints in the lower 70s have begun to push onshore, and will
spread into much of the area by Saturday, if not tomorrow. Models
remain in some disagreement on evolution of convective rain event
and how far east the heavier rain will concentrate. DGEX and ECMWF
show a cut off low that retrogrades westward from TX as upper trof
further north races east across the midwest. Any scenario offers
possible heavy rains across mainly central TX, but with variable
timing on any briefer period that some or most of our cwa gets
wet. Svr wx does not seem to be a threat, despite the introduction
of first stg cold front of the season upon a an unseasonally long
and strong period of heating as instability on warm side remains
week and cold air wedge will cap the low lvls with the frontal
passage. Cooler temps into the 50s at night, with a few temps even
falling into the 40s up north, will be a welcome relief to begin
the autumn season./VII/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  20
MLU  71  94  72  95 /  10  10  10  10
DEQ  66  92  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
TXK  69  92  74  91 /  10  10  10  20
ELD  70  92  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
TYR  72  91  75  91 /  10  20  20  30
GGG  72  92  74  91 /  10  20  20  30
LFK  74  91  75  91 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

24/05/07