545
FXUS64 KSHV 090454
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will once again
   be possible with the aid of daytime heating today.

 - Isolated storms could produce damaging wind gusts and excessive
   heavy rainfall.

 - Upper ridge setting up across the Lower Mississippi Valley
   could result in Heat Advisory headlines by the end of the
   7-day forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Still dealing with scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm
or two...mainly near and north of the I-20 Corridor late this
evening. This activity should continue dissipating but we will
likely keep at least isolated storms around through at least sunrise
near the I-20 Corridor due to an inverted upper trough that
remains entrenched across our region. This feature is wedged
between high pressure off the eastern seaboard and upper ridging
across the Four Corners Region of the Country. High PWATS upwards
of 2 inches remains firmly entrenched across our region as well
so all we need is some diurnal heating and you have the necessary
ingredients for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
once again for today into the evening hours tonight. The greatest
coverage area appears to be near and south and east of the I-30
Corridor Today through this evening as this is where the highest
PWAT should reside.

These ingredients shift every so slowly eastward for Thursday and
thus, the highest pops Thu/Thu Evng should reside across the east
and southeast half of our region. By Friday, the remnant shortwave
trough should have diminished to little more than a weak shear
axis across our region with drier air beginning to infiltrate our
region from the west. This will result in a reduction in pop
coverage with pops delegated to our far eastern and southern zones
only for Friday.

Temperatures should be tapered somewhat today by precipitation
chances but not to the extreme the NBM suggests. Slightly lesser
storm coverage on Thursday and especially on Friday means hotter
temperatures with highs by Friday ranging in the middle to upper
90s areawide.

For the upcoming weekend, we should begin to see an increase in
PWAT from the south and this combined with our weak shear axis in
place should result in at least isolated to scattered diurnally
driven storm coverage across our region through at least Sunday.
Did not stray from NBM pops or temps through the weekend despite
upper ridging beginning to retrograde from the Southeast U.S. on
Saturday into the Lower Miss Valley by late Sunday. This feature
should begin to setup across the heart of our region by early next
week which will likely result in critical heat indices and the
possible return to Heat Advisory criteria to start the next work
week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 903 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

For the 09/00Z TAF period, convection remains ongoing across our
airspace this evening although impacts to most terminals should be
temporary through mid to late evening. This convection is expected
to gradually diminish closer to midnight with lingering convective
debris clouds overnight. Aside from some patchy fog developing in
areas where more moderate to heavy rainfall occurred, look for VFR
conditions to generally prevail through the period once convection
has ended. Otherwise, rinse and repeat all over again on Wednesday
afternoon with more scattered convection expected to so have gone
with VCTS beginning around 09/18Z. S/SW winds will largely prevail
between 5-10 kts with higher gusts invof of convection during the
daytime hours with lighter and more variable conditions overnight.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Spotter activation is not likely today through tonight as widespread
damaging wind gusts are not forecast. However, an isolated storm
or two could reach severe limits producing damaging wind gusts and
excessive heavy rainfall that could result in area flooding.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  96  75  93  75 /  60  30  60  50
MLU  95  74  94  73 /  60  30  60  50
DEQ  90  70  92  70 /  70  60  30  20
TXK  97  73  96  74 /  60  70  40  30
ELD  92  70  91  70 /  70  60  50  40
TYR  93  73  92  73 /  50  40  60  50
GGG  94  73  93  73 /  60  40  60  50
LFK  93  72  94  73 /  40  30  60  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...13
AVIATION...19