Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 162158
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
358 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE DEPARTING UPPER TROF TO THE EAST
WITH A WEAK RIDGE JUST TO THE WEST AND CIRRUS SPREADING ACROSS TX
AND LA. THIS INCREASE IN PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL ONLY CONTINUE AS
THE NEXT UPPER TROF DIGS ACROSS SRN CA AND THE DESERT SW OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING CIRRUS...TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EVEN SUB-FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST OF SEVERAL WAVES OF SHWRS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE NWRN HALF OF THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROF WHICH WILL BEGIN TO EMERGE OUT
OVER THE PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SHWRS SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE AN EVEN STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROF QUICKLY FOLLOWS SUIT ON
FRIDAY. THIS TROF WILL TAP INTO MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SET
THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITH A COUPLE OF
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A
SFC LOW AND WARM FRONT DEVELOP AND TRACK NE ALONG THE TX COAST
INTO SRN LA ON FRIDAY.

THE LOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A DRY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES VERY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  34  54  43  56  49 /   0  10  60  40  60
MLU  33  53  41  54  47 /   0  10  50  50  60
DEQ  30  48  38  52  43 /   0  30  70  30  40
TXK  32  50  39  54  45 /   0  20  70  40  50
ELD  32  50  39  52  44 /   0  10  60  40  60
TYR  36  53  43  60  49 /   0  30  70  30  60
GGG  33  52  43  58  49 /   0  20  70  40  60
LFK  36  56  48  63  54 /   0  10  60  50  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19




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