Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 221929
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
229 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Afternoon heat index values currently at or above 105 degrees
across the advisory area at this time. Some locations across
north-central Louisiana and south-central Arkansas crept into
excessive heat warning criteria above 110 degrees for a short
period of time. However, afternoon convection across these areas
brought temperatures down into lower 80s. Should see continued
convection through the early evening hours shifting south across
the eastern periphery of the upper-level ridge.

On Saturday, should see slightly cooler temperatures. Debated on
whether to upgrade heat advisory to excessive heat warning but
decided to refrain at this time due to high temperatures forecast
to be slightly cooler due to a weak 700mb trough moving westward
across the region along with the retrograding upper-level ridge.

Upper-level weakness to also support scattered afternoon
convection across the region on Saturday. However, the combination
of temperatures in the mid to upper 90s and a very moist airmass
in place will continue to support heat advisory criteria of
around 105 degrees through Saturday across much of the region.

Enhanced coverage of afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms to continue through the early part of the work week
due to a westward migrating mid-level disturbance across the
northern gulf coast. Disturbance to open into a broad trough
across the southern plains supporting decent coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Otherwise, high temperatures next week to range from lows in the
mid to upper 70s and highs in the low to mid 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  79  97  79  96 /  20  30  20  40
MLU  78  96  77  94 /  20  40  20  40
DEQ  76  99  76  97 /  20  30  20  30
TXK  79  99  78  96 /  20  30  20  30
ELD  77  97  77  95 /  20  30  20  40
TYR  79  99  78  97 /  10  30  10  30
GGG  78  98  78  97 /  10  30  10  30
LFK  77  97  76  95 /  20  30  10  30

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-150-151-153-166-167.

&&

$$

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