Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301651
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF RAINFALL THUS FAR TODAY HAS REMAINED OVER NORTHCENTRAL
LA...AND EASTWARD. HAVE SHIFTED POPS EASTWARD...LEAVING ISOLD TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY. 12Z SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A STEEP MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH PWS AROUND 2.5 INCHES AT
JAN AND LCH...WITH JUST OVER 2 INCHES AT SHV. IN
ADDITION...DESPITE SATURATED AIRMASS...A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND
LACK OF PROJECTED SFC HEATING TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...ONLY EXPECT
TO SEE EMBEDDED THUNDER IN AREAS OF RAIN./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING EXTENSIVE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NWRD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A SHARP CONTRAST OF DRIER AIR ALOFT FARTHER WEST IN
WRN/N CNTRL TX AND MUCH OF SRN OK. RECENT OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH
RADAR AND SATELLITE LOOPS ALSO SEEM TO INDICATE A DEVELOPING SFC
LOW NEAR GALVESTON BAY WHERE CONVECTION IS MUCH MORE CONCENTRATED
IN THIS INCREASINGLY MOIST AND TROPICAL AIR MASS. THIS SETUP WILL
LIKELY PRODUCE A RATHER SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY...AS THE DRIER AIR SLOWLY WORKS INTO
THE FAR WRN COUNTIES IN OUR CWA WHILE AREAS FROM DEEP E TX ACROSS
MUCH OF N LA AND S AR CONTINUE TO SEE AN INTENSE TROPICAL MOISTURE
SURGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THESE AREAS MAY
REACH A COUPLE INCHES...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO NEAR THE SHREVEPORT/BOSSIER CITY METRO AREA AND
FARTHER SOUTH TO LOWER TOLEDO BEND. ANOTHER CONCERN ASIDE FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING
STORMS IN THIS TROPICAL AIR MASS AS THE LOW TRACKS NE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH BRIEF SPIN UPS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY OVER
PARTS OF N LA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY RANGE
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST WHERE THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 DEGREES ACROSS OUR FAR WRN AREAS
WHILE 80S WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE AND EVEN SOME UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE FAR EAST.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE LATTER HALF OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...RAIN
WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH A QUICK
RETURN TO THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS WWRD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH
ONLY MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIODS
WITH SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ADVANCING NWRD INTO THE SRN CWA. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  73  92  76  95 /  40  40  20  10  10
MLU  82  72  91  74  94 /  90  50  30  10  10
DEQ  88  70  92  72  93 /  20  30  10  10  10
TXK  85  72  93  74  93 /  30  30  20  10  10
ELD  82  71  91  73  94 /  50  50  20  10  10
TYR  90  74  94  76  95 /  20  20  10  10  10
GGG  88  73  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  10  10
LFK  85  74  94  76  95 /  40  30  30  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$




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