Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 240457

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1157 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

For the ArkLaTex, looking for a quiet night with some MVFR before
daybreak. Lead short wave on approach over dryline with parent
trough on the S CA coast moving East. Tonight`s wave of TSTMS is
modeled to nudge a boundary into our CWA with a chance for
afternoon convection on Tues. Until then, S/SE sfc winds of 5-10
kts will continue with higher daytime gusts. Aloft, our SE flow
is shallow and quickly comes around to W/NW by 10kft at 10-30kts.
Outlook is for additional convection with approaching system. /24/


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1021 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

A few stray storms continue to track along the far northern edge
of the CWA this evening, but this activity will be exiting prior
to the midnight hour. Meanwhile, convection out across west Texas
has been weakening with eastward progress but some redevelopment
is possible overnight and some storms could affect the northwest
half of area during the early morning hours prior to daybreak but
confidence is rather low at this time if recent trends are any
indication. So have adjusted pops for the remainder of the evening
and overnight with slight chance pops over the northwest half and
low chance pops covering points north of I-30. Otherwise, the rest
of the forecast was left intact. Updated text products reflecting
the minor changes have already been issued. /19/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 434 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

This afternoon a weak disturbance across Eastern Oklahoma and
Western Arkansas was the second disturbance moving over parts of
the area producing showers and isolated thunderstorms. For the
overnight hours have lowered the chance of convection and will
pick back the chances for mainly the afternoon Tuesday as the
next in a series of ripples move through the continuous/upcoming
Southwest flow pattern aloft. These features will be moving into
the weak ridging of high pressure from the Northern Gulf of Mexico
into the Lower and parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. The
pattern of a trough/closed low out to the West and across the
Eastern parts of the country with a ridge of high pressure over
the Central and Southeast States into the Upper Midwest.
on the surface high pressure to the East of the Four State Region
will be providing low level moisture into the central parts of
the country while the Southwest flow around the base of the
Western upper trough/closed low will be providing added pacific
moisture. The combination of disturbances moving across the area
with afternoon heating, and low level moisture will be providing
enough instability and lift to provide overnight and early morning
cloudiness and mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms. During
the late part of this work week, one of the better chances for a
round of strong to possible severe showers and thunderstorms will
occur as one of the closing upper lows swings over Southern
Colorado and the Pan Handles of Oklahoma and Texas, and Western
Kansas, and then out into the Central Plains with a trailing lobe
of energy into Oklahoma and Texas. This system will shift the high
pressure ridge aloft to the east allowing for the features aloft
to remain dominated by ripples around returning troughs/closed
lows over the Southwest sections of the country. The late half of
the weekend will be the drier days of the forecast in the extended
with rain chances ramping back up slightly during the start to
next week. /06/


SHV  70  87  71  87 /  10  30  30  10
MLU  67  89  69  89 /  10  20  20  10
DEQ  67  84  68  86 /  30  30  40  20
TXK  68  85  69  86 /  20  40  40  20
ELD  66  87  68  87 /  10  30  30  20
TYR  70  86  71  87 /  20  40  30   0
GGG  69  86  71  87 /  20  40  40  10
LFK  71  88  72  88 /  10  30  30   0


.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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