Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290254
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
954 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Will make no changes to the forecast this evening. Lower clouds
will be spreading North into the region with skies becoming mostly
cloudy. Could see some rain development over parts of Northeast
Texas into Southeast Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas where surface
boundary resides. /06/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 619 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions late this evening should continue through the next
6 hours or so before we begin to see stratus developing/moving
northward from the SE TX/S LA coast and effecting our terminal
airspace overnight. Believe this will come in as mostly MVFR
ceilings with heights near 1-2kft but will need to watch for some
IFR ceilings briefly late tonight through the early morning hours
on Wed. Pressure gradient will remain strong but with a developing
inversion overnight, we should see winds decouple slightly. Strong
SSE winds will return with earnest on Wed with gusts upwards of
25kts possible across all but the MLU/ELD terminals.

Convection will be moving our way overnight in the form of a
broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms but should begin to
weaken in coverage and intensity to our west and northwest near or
just after 12z Wed. Made mention of tempo TSRA at the TYR/GGG
terminals for the morning hours on Wed just in case this
convection moving our way stays in tact. Otherwise, we await on
daytime heating and reorganization of strong to severe
thunderstorms by late afternoon into the evening hours mainly
along and east of a line from the LFK/SHV/TXK terminal eastward in
the 21z-00z period and advancing eastward towards the ELD/MLU
terminals just beyond this TAF cycle. /13/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A surface boundary has lifted through most of the Four State
Region this afternoon with South to Southeast winds expected
to continue increasing low level moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.
During the evening and overnight expecting showers and possibly a
few thunderstorms to develop along and North of this
boundary that reaches West into a surface low pressure system
over the Pan Handle and parts of West Texas and Eastern New
Mexico. A tight pressure gradient with the surface low will
keep winds elevated over Texas and parts of the Four State Region
tonight and stronger during the day Wednesday. Have issued a lake
winds advisory for the increase in surface winds during the day
Wednesday from mid morning into the late afternoon and early
evening. Overnight as an upper closed low over New Mexico moves
East sending disturbances across a trailing cold front from the
surface low and the warm front reaching east, showers and
thunderstorms will increase with and ahead of the boundaries.
During the day Wednesday as the upper low shifts to the East
across the Plains and showers and thunderstorms become more
widespread, strong to severe storms area expected as moisture,
instability and lift are enhanced. Much of the forecast area will
see severe storms from late Wednesday and overnight as a wide band
of showers and thunderstorms moves over the area. Convection will
continue into Thursday with the stronger activity over South
Central Arkansas and North Central Louisiana and ending from
West to East Thursday night. In wake of the departing upper trough
high pressure ridging aloft and on the surface will prevail into
the first half of the weekend. The next upper closed low moving
from near the Four Corners region will shift across the Southern
Rockies with the flow aloft becoming Southwest while moisture
feeds back into the Western Gulf Coast States returning showers
and thunderstorms. Storms could become severe with a near repeat
of this mid to late week system. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  63  75 /  20  60  80  30
MLU  65  85  66  78 /  20  20  90  70
DEQ  63  75  56  68 /  50  80  60  40
TXK  65  78  60  71 /  40  70  80  40
ELD  63  82  63  76 /  20  40  90  60
TYR  68  78  57  70 /  60  80  40  20
GGG  68  78  60  72 /  40  70  70  30
LFK  69  80  62  76 /  20  70  70  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ070-
     071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ001-
     002-010.

OK...None.
TX...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ096-
     097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165.

&&

$$

06/13



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