Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 011524
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1024 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP SOUTH FLOW HAS BROUGHT LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF AREA...AND
WIDELY SCT CONVECTION JUST MOVG ONSHORE IN SOUTH LA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER A LITTLE MORE SPARSE THAN
YESTERDAY...SO ONGOING CONVECTION MAY DIMINISH BY TIME IT REACHES
I-20. WILL LEAVE ISOLD POPS AS IS...AND GIVEN AROUND A 10 DEGREE
RISE IN TEMPS FROM 10 AM READINGS...AFTN HIGHS IN LOWER TO MID 90S
CAN BE EXPECTED. NO UPDATE ATTM./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
30KTS AT 2KFT PER KSHV 88D VWP HAS RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR/MVFR
CEILINGS ACROSS OUR AIRPORT TERMINALS THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE
RANGING FROM 2HDFT TO 15HDFT BUT SHOULD LIFT/SCATTER OUT BETWEEN
14-16Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EFFECTING THE LFK/MLU TERMINALS
BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WHEN ANY AND ALL CONVECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWARD
FROM NE OK/NW AR CONVECTION COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AS WELL BUT THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF OUR TERMINAL
LOCATIONS.

ALREADY SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 18KTS AT THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS AND
THOSE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC THIS MORNING SHOULD MIX DOWN
SOMEWHAT LATER TODAY. HAVE INTRODUCED GUSTS TO THE TYR/GGG/TXK/SHV
TERMINALS NEAR 16-20KTS AS A RESULT.

WINDS WILL DECOUPLE THIS EVENING BUT LOOKING AT A REPEAT OF THE
LOW CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN NEAR OR AFTER 02/06Z TONIGHT.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP S/SW FLOW HELPING STRATUS RAPIDLY DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWRD
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH DEW POINTS RUNNING IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S AREA WIDE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED
ACROSS THE SE STATES WITH SOME WWRD MOVING DISTURBANCES PASSING
UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE NRN GULF TODAY. THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE WILL HELP SEND OUR TEMPERATURES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHWRS AND TSTMS...MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION ACROSS OUR SERN HALF OF THE CWA IN LOWER E TX AND N LA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO BE QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
RIDGE HOLDS SERVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. AFTERNOON SHWRS
AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER
AIR PROGGED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK MAY ALLOW
OUR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP OFF A BIT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT MAY ALSO SERVE TO INCREASE
OUR RAIN CHANCES WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS
SENDING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES AND QPF. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  76  95  77  96 /  20  20  20  20  10
MLU  93  75  94  73  95 /  20  20  30  30  20
DEQ  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  10  10
TXK  94  75  94  75  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
ELD  93  74  94  73  94 /  10  10  20  20  10
TYR  94  77  95  76  95 /  10  10  20  20  10
GGG  95  76  95  75  96 /  10  10  20  20  10
LFK  95  76  94  76  95 /  20  20  30  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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