Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 271627
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1127 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT MODELS INDICATE WEAK RIDGING FOLLOWING LAST NIGHTS SHORT
WAVE. HOWEVER...WITH NEW CONVECTION INITIATING IN NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN AREAS ATTM...WILL ALLOW THE HIGH CHANCE POPS TO REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGHS IN THE 80S ALSO
LOOK GOOD...WITH CIRRUS THINNING RAPIDLY. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
/14/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS IN THE WAKE OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE COMPLEX STILL IN
PROGRESS AT KMLU AND POINTS S/SW. THIS HAS WORKED US OVER PRETTY
GOOD SO FEW IF ANY LOW CIGS THIS MORNING AND ONLY LATE DAY ISOLD
TSTMS MAINLY W OVER E TX. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT AND ALL OVER THE
PLACE...BUT SHOULD PREVAIL S/SW 10 KTS OR LESS. CLIMB WINDS ARE
LIGHT S/SE/E UP TO 5KFT...THEN NORTHERLY 20-40KTS INTO THE MID
LEVELS AND BACK TO NW/W/SW BY 17KFT ON UP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE MCS THAT JUST WON/T DIE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SE INTO SE
TX/THE SRN SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA THIS MORNING...INTO THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY AIR AND 20-25KT SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PRESENT ACROSS
THESE AREAS...AND JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER E TX. SHOULD
SEE THIS CONVECTION EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF THE SHORTWAVE...THUS STABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER
THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE FORECAST REMAINS QUITE MUDDY AND A LOW
CONFIDENCE ONE AT THAT...AS THE 00Z PROGS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED
WELL ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH COULD VERY WELL AFFECT THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO SUGGEST WEAK SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE WRLY FLOW ALOFT MOVING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH TIME FOR STRENGTHENING
INSTABILITY SUCH THAT SCT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER NE
TX/EXTREME SW AR/NW LA. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR
THESE AREAS...WHICH MAY SPREAD SE THIS EVENING AND BECOME FURTHER
ENHANCED PER LOCAL MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS. CAN/T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THIS
CONVECTION...WITH IT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING/INSTABILITY.

DIRTY RIDGING ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED TO EXPAND NE FROM E TX ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY REGION THURSDAY...AS A
CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDENT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW
BEGINS TO OPEN UP AND MOVE INTO THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. A WELL-
DEFINED SHORTWAVE JUST OFF THE WRN BAJA COAST WILL CONTINUE E AND
OPEN UP BENEATH THE PACIFIC NW TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...ENTERING THE SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS WITHIN/ATOP THE DIRTY RIDGE SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER DAY
OF SCT CONVECTION AREAWIDE...BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE
FOCUSED WITH THE APPROACHING BAJA SHORTWAVE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. HAVE
MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WRN 2/3RDS OF THE REGION
FRIDAY...CARRYING THEM ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. WHAT/S LEFT OF THE OPENING
TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS STATES LATE THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
HELP TO REINFORCE THE WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY
EWD SUNDAY/MONDAY /PER THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/...RESULTING IN
CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. THUS...HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS TOWARDS THE LATTER EXTENDED...AS THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN LOOKS TO TREND MORE LIKE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
BROAD UPPER RIDGING EXPANDING E ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/MS VALLEY.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  86  70  86  71 /  50  40  40  20
MLU  87  70  85  70 /  50  30  40  20
DEQ  84  69  82  69 /  40  30  40  40
TXK  85  70  84  70 /  50  30  40  30
ELD  85  69  85  69 /  40  30  40  20
TYR  85  71  86  72 /  50  40  40  30
GGG  85  71  86  71 /  50  40  40  30
LFK  88  72  88  72 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$



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