Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 231637
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1137 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AM EYEING TWO FEATURES THIS MORNING...ONE IS THE UPPER LOW CENTERED
OVER SE LA...AND THE SECOND IS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SLIDING SWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY. THE SHORT TERM PROGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING
THE UPPER LOW STATIONARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCT CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO FIRE BY AFTERNOON ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW...AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE SE SECTIONS OF NCNTRL LA. ALREADY SEEING
SOME LIGHT ELEVATED RADAR RETURNS NOW ALONG AND E OF THE MS
RIVER...WITH THIS CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD SW THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PRIMARY FOCUS IS FARTHER TO THE N...WHERE THE
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR SW INTO CNTRL AR AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SE
OK/NE TX THIS AFTERNOON. MOSAIC RADAR INDICATES ISOLATED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING JUST W OF LIT...JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH OVER NE OK
INTO NRN AR...IN VC OF THIS SHEARING TROUGH. THE WRF AND HRRR ARE
AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING SCT CONVECTION BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON OVER
WRN AR/SE OK...AND SLIDING SW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO EXTREME NE TX. IN ADDITION...THE SMALL COMPLEX OF CONVECTION
OVER SE KS COULD ACTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN INTENSIFYING CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/WRN AR AS IT COULD BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE CONVECTION FARTHER E...BEFORE ACCELERATING SW. DON/T BELIEVE THE
SFC TROUGH WILL MAKE MUCH PROGRESS S DURING THE AFTERNOON UNLESS
BEING REINFORCED SWD FROM THE STORMS...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING
OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND RIDING THE MEAN FLOW AS IT FOLLOWS THE BETTER
INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN ZONES. GIVEN THE MODERATE/STRONG
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER ERN OK/WRN AR WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING IS IN PLACE NEAR THE SFC TROUGH /WITH TEMPS HAVING ALREADY
REACHED NEAR 90 ALREADY/...CAN/T RULE OUT A SMALL COMPLEX OF SVR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG/N OF THE I-30
CORRIDOR. A CAVEAT THOUGH WOULD BE THE SWWD EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS IT COULD ENCOUNTER LESS INSTABILITY
/THROUGH SUFFICIENT MIXING/ AS IT REACHES THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF NE TX
AND BECOMES MORE REMOVED FROM THE SHEAR AXIS ALOFT.

HAVE INCREASED POPS TO MID CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON FOR EXTREME NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...WHILE ALSO EXPANDING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO COVER THE I-20
CORRIDOR OF E TX/N LA IN CASE THIS CONVECTION DOES MATERIALIZE AND
SENDS OUTFLOW BNDRYS SWD. 16Z TEMPS HAVE ALSO QUICKLY CLIMBED TO THE
MID/UPPER 80S...AND HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
ESPECIALLY OVER NE TX/NW LA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
IS ON TRACK.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  94  72  95  72  96 /  20  20  20  10  10
MLU  93  71  93  69  93 /  20  20  20  20  10
DEQ  92  70  94  68  95 /  40  30   0  10   0
TXK  93  72  94  70  95 /  40  30  10  10   0
ELD  93  71  93  69  94 /  20  20  20  10   0
TYR  95  74  97  75  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
GGG  94  73  96  74  97 /  20  20  20  10   0
LFK  95  74  95  76  96 /  30  20  30  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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