Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180400
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1000 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
TO INCREASE POPS/CLOUDS AND ADD ISOLATED THUNDER 12-18Z. ALSO
LOADED NEW NAM WINDS WHICH ARE A BIT MORE NE THAN OBS/FCST EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KSHV 88 D RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE HEART OF
THE ARKLATEX WITH MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR 45 MPH. THE WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THIS LEAD SHORT WAVE IN THE PATTERN OVER KN/OK AND
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN TOW OFF THE E
PACIFIC. OVERALL...TONIGHT IS HIGH POP LOWER QPF OF TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT BEST COMPARED TO THE SECOND VORT/S TIMING FOR OVERNIGHT
AND MUCH OF FRIDAY ON THE NEW NAM WITH STILL WPC DAY 1-2 SHOWING 1
TO 3 INCH TOTALS BY LATE FRIDAY. WE ARE SEEING PRETTY MUCH NE SFC
WINDS AND UPDATED WITH NEW 00Z NAM LEANING MORE NE. ALSO HAVE
ADDED SOME ISOLATED THUNDER FOR FIRST HALF OF DAY TOMORROW.
OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
LOOK FOR DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...
AS AREAS OF -SHRA SPREAD ENE ACROSS NE TX/SE OK/SW AR/NW LA. WITH
THE COLUMN SATURATING FROM THE TOP DOWN...MVFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP
OVER NE TX/SE OK BETWEEN 03-06Z...WITH SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN -SHRA ACROSS MAINLY THE TYR/TXK TERMINALS. SHOULD SEE
LOW MVFR CIGS/IFR CIGS EVENTUALLY DEVELOP JUST BEFORE 12Z OVER E
TX...SPREADING INTO SW AR/NW LA BETWEEN 12-15Z AS THE -SHRA
BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM W TO E. HOWEVER...SCT -SHRA MAY LINGER
FROM DEEP E TX INTO NCNTRL LA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ESE WINDS 5-7KTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM IN FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON
AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROF EJECTING NE OUT OF THE
DESERT SW ACROSS THE ERN SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES. A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF SHWRS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF OK DOWN THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO N CNTRL TX AND SOUTH TO THE TX HILL COUNTRY. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND EXPAND EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUNDER
WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR W AND NW CLOSER TO THE BASE OF THE TROF
BUT A FEW ISOLD RUMBLES CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS OUR
FAR NW CWA LATER TONIGHT. THIS INITIAL ROUND WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY
LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH OR LESS ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLD
HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE I-30 CORRIDOR.

RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT
CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES HELD AT BAY WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S FOR HIGHS. ONCE THIS TROF EXITS LATER ON THURSDAY...THE
NEXT MAJOR SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT ALONG THE SAME PATH
AND SWING OUT ACROSS W TX BY EARLY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW
WILL DEVELOP IN CONCERT WITH THE DEEPENING TROF AXIS AND RIDE UP
ALONG THE TX COAST INTO SRN LA WITH A WARM FRONT SHIFTING NE INTO
THE FAR SRN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. THIS WILL SUPPLY AMPLE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND SET THE STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
OVER THE SRN HALF OF OUR CWA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR WITH THE LATEST QPF GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 1-3 INCHES
ACROSS THESE AREAS. ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS PRONE TO PONDING AND POOR DRAINAGE. THE UPPER TROF
AND SFC LOW WILL EXIT LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

A WARMING TREND WILL START OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH RAIN RETURNING AS
WELL. THIS FRONT SHOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION THROUGH THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK NEAR CLIMO HEADING INTO THE CHRISTMAS
HOLIDAY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  44  55  47  52  41 /  80  40  60  80  40
MLU  42  53  45  52  40 /  40  40  70  90  60
DEQ  39  50  42  48  36 /  80  20  40  60  40
TXK  40  51  43  49  37 /  80  30  40  70  40
ELD  40  51  43  50  38 /  80  40  50  80  60
TYR  44  58  47  51  41 /  80  30  70  70  30
GGG  44  56  47  52  41 /  80  30  60  80  30
LFK  49  61  52  57  44 /  80  60  80  90  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24/15




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