Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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844
FXUS64 KSHV 291023
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
523 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.AVIATION...
IR Satellite Imagery this morning showing widespread MVFR ceilings
across all terminals attm. IFR ceilings were noted at the LFK
terminal as of 10z and these conditions will be possible for a few
hours at the TYR terminal as well. Looking aloft, an upper level
trough across the S LA Gulf Coast is generating scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms from the SE TX Coast across the
S LA Coast this morning. This upper level trough is forecast to
slowly move northeast today and thus, convection along the coast
this morning will gradually continue to push inland towards the
northeast. Feel like terminals most likely to encounter this
convection during the day will be the MLU/ELD terminals so have
introduced VCTS at both locations. Elsewhere, convection will be
too isolated to warrant a WX mention with this taf package. Low
ceilings this morning will give way to VFR ceilings later this
morning or ceilings could scatter out completely with a lifting cu
field throughout the day. Expect S to SE winds of 12kts or less
today.

Overnight, should see MVFR ceilings returning to area terminals,
mainly after 30/06z timeframe.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 359 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Persistent upper low centered over srn LA continues to generate
convection along the TX/LA Gulf coast this morning. Overall flow
over the CONUS is zonal, with a developing trof over the Rockies
attm. Gulf low is fcst to migrate newd today, likely providing
greater coverage of convection for our srn and ern portions of the
region.

Trof over the Rockies to eject into the Plains Friday, and
weaknesses aloft will interact with the sea breeze to bring
additional, mainly diurnal convection to the region again. Trof
to deepen/move into the Southern Plains/Lower MS Valley Saturday,
bringing a cold front into the nrn areas of our region. Some
question as to how far s the front will make it Saturday before
stalling and waffling back nwd. Attm, looks like best chances for
convection will be I-20 and nwd.

Front to move well n of the region as the trof departs to the e
and upper ridging sets in over the region. This will likely send
our temps up into the low to mid 90s for most sites. Have trended
above guidance for the first half of the work week as a result.
Another trof/front fcst to approach the region late in the pd, but
not expected to have much impact on our wx aside from some sct
convection. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  77  91  77 /  40  10  40  10
MLU  86  75  91  76 /  50  20  50  10
DEQ  91  73  91  73 /  10  10  30  50
TXK  90  75  92  75 /  20  10  30  30
ELD  87  74  91  75 /  30  20  40  20
TYR  91  77  92  77 /  20  10  20  10
GGG  91  76  91  76 /  30  10  30  10
LFK  91  77  91  76 /  40  10  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/13



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