Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 220300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017

Convection has now dissipated across our region with only a few
showers remaining to our south near Alexandria in central LA.
Clouds overnight will be limited to cirrus associated with the
easterly wave over the northern Gulf of Mexico, mainly affecting
parts of north LA. Otherwise, a few areas may also see patchy fog
toward daybreak but coverage/duration will be quite limited so no
mention has been included in the current gridded forecast. Update
will be out soon with new zone package to drop the possibility of
convection for the remainder of the overnight period.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue across portions of
Northeast Louisiana in the vicinity of the MLU terminal but all
other terminals should stay convection free as this convection
should dissipate quickly after sunset. Thus, expecting VFR
conditions to prevail through much of the night. Cannot rule out
some brief vsby restrictions an hour or two either side of
sunrise, otherwise, should see cu field developing between the
14-16z hours on Tue with cloud heights continuing to climb through
the afternoon hours.

Light and variable winds overnight should become south to
southeast on Tue with speeds less than 10kts.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 PM CDT Mon Aug 21 2017/

Perfect viewing of the solar eclipse across the ArkLaTex this
afternoon as once it started shortly before the noon hour, the
shadowing of the sun actually helped to suppress the afternoon
cumulus field across the region. We measured a 4 degree
temperature drop here at WFO SHV between 1146 am and the peak of
totality at 117 pm.

The more moderate cumulus towers did manage to spike into a few
isolated showers and thunderstorms across region, most noted
across Deep East Texas into Northern Louisiana. This activity
should quickly dissipate quickly this evening giving way to mostly
clear skies overnight. Expecting similar conditions once again for
Tuesday with isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms a
possibility once again. Tuesday we will begin to see the influence
of an upper level trough retrograding across the Northern Gulf
Coast with a weakening upper ridge across the Lower Miss Valley.
Tuesday afternoon will also bring with it scattered thunderstorms
across portions of Eastern Oklahoma into Northern and Central
Arkansas and this activity will preceed a strong cold front that
will begin moving into our region late Tuesday Night, through
the day Wednesday and into Wednesday Night. Having said that, look
for pops to increase from north to south across our region in
relation to this north to south moving frontal boundary which
should make good progress through our region given the fact that
its late August.

Have followed the ECMWF concerning frontal movement across and
through our region later this week as opposed to the GFS which is
a much slower solution with the front and a much wetter outlier.
Keeping small pops in our forecast across our western and southern
zones for late week and early next week with scattered convection
possible across our entire region for late in the weekend into
early next week. This due in part to the uncertainty with the
tropical remnants of Harvey which is expected expected to traverse
across the southern Gulf of Mexico late this week and make
landfall somewhere near or to the south of Brownsville, Tx. late
Friday/Friday Night. Upper ridging is expected to build across
portions of the Texas Hill Country by this weekend which should
put the brakes on Harvey. Million dollar question is whether or
not there will be a disturbance in northwest flow aloft across the
Southern Plains to lift the remnants of Harvey our way for late
weekend into next week. Needless to say, a much wetter extended
forecast would be the result. We will continue to watch for this
possible scenario in future forecasts.

Prelims to follow...13.


SHV  76  96  76  93 /  20  10  10  50
MLU  75  96  75  91 /  20  20  10  50
DEQ  73  95  74  87 /  10  20  60  50
TXK  74  95  75  88 /  10  10  30  50
ELD  73  95  75  89 /  20  20  20  50
TYR  75  95  75  92 /  10  10  10  50
GGG  76  96  75  92 /  20  10  10  50
LFK  74  95  75  94 /  20  10  10  50




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