Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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248
FXUS64 KSHV 171035
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
435 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough currently over Northwest Mexico will slowly move
east northeast and across the Southern Plains through the end of
the work week. This will keep very unsettled conditions in place
for the next several days. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the
trough will keep abundant deep layer moisture streaming into the
region. Large scale ascent has led to the development of a band of
showers from Central Texas, into the Arklatex, and northeast into
Tennessee and Kentucky. Farther south, more robust convection has
developed along a surface cold front that is slowly moving
southeast. Coverage and intensity of the rainfall should increase
areawide today as vertical ascent increases ahead of the
approaching trough. The highest rain amounts through this evening
will be associated with the convection along the cold front
southeast of a line from KJSO to KMLU.

Rain will become more widespread this evening and tonight,
especially across East Texas, as a lead vort max moves across the
Southern Plains ahead of the main upper trough. During the day
Wednesday, the majority of the rain should shift farther eastward
into Southern Arkansas and Louisiana. Most of the area will
continue to see rain on Thursday, but the precipitation should
slowly end from west to east by Thursday evening. Additional
rainfall amounts through 06z Thursday could be over an inch for
most locations along and south of Interstate 30, with two to
three inches, with isolated higher amounts, southeast of a line
from KJSO, to Jefferson, TX, to KELD. These higher rain amounts
are expected in areas that have not seen very much rainfall, so
far. These amounts are also expected to be somewhat spread out
over the course of the next few days. Therefore, no flood
headlines are currently anticipated.

Shortwave ridging will allow for some dry weather on Friday, but
thunderstorm chances will return by early Saturday morning and
continuing through the weekend as another series of upper troughs
affect the region. Medium range models are in fairly decent
agreement with a pretty strong upper trough centered over Southern
Oklahoma by Sunday morning. This upper trough should move much
more quickly across the area and rain chances should end by early
Monday morning.

/09/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  52  61  55 /  70  70  90  60
MLU  64  53  64  60 /  70  60  60  70
DEQ  57  45  55  48 /  20  70  50  40
TXK  56  47  54  50 /  40  70  70  50
ELD  60  48  57  53 /  70  60  60  60
TYR  56  49  58  51 /  70 100 100  50
GGG  57  50  60  53 /  70  90 100  60
LFK  60  55  67  56 /  70  80 100  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09



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