Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 261620 AAB
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1120 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A cold front continues to move across the area. Scattered showers
will persist through this afternoon, but the best deep layer
moisture will be west of the CWA, while the best vertical ascent
will be north of the area. Compressional warming ahead of the
front combined with partly cloudy skies have allowed temperatures
to warm very quickly in our southern- most parishes of Louisiana,
mainly from Toledo Bend eastward. These locations are probably
very close to their daytime highs, and temperatures should fall
slightly through the remainder of the day as the front and clouds
spread into the area. Some updates were made to the hourly
temperature grids to account for these trends, but the remainder
of the forecast was left intact.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 728 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Cold front continues to make slow but steady progress across
Northeast Texas this morning. Widely scattered showers have
developed in the vicinity of this boundary near the TYR/GGG
terminal locations. Prefrontal airmass at the ELD/MLU/SHV
terminals are mostly VFR with intermittent BR at the MLU
terminal attm. IFR is currently dealing with patchy dense fog near
1/2SM with VV002. Post frontal airmass is made up of IFR ceilings
at the TYR/GGG terminals but no VSBY restrictions. This post
frontal low cloud cover will likely advect into the TXK/SHV/ELD
and MLU terminals as the day goes on and may be slow to lift
during the day. Was optimistic with the 12z TAF package however
and show ceilings at least becoming MVFR later in the day.

Went with VCSH at the TYR/GGG/LFK/TXK terminals this morning and
kept it going a little longer at the LFK terminal with the
possibility of -tsra at this location later this aftn. Kept wx
mention out of the remaining terminals as precip coverage will be
more isolated in nature and can be handled with an amd if
necessary.

Otherwise expect post frontal winds today from the NNE near 10kts
with winds decoupling after sunset this evening.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 626 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Made a quick update to raise pops across east Texas this morning
due to the ongoing showers affecting areas along and south of
I-20. Some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible through
the remainder of today with a cold front continuing to advance
east across the region.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 422 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Cold front entered our northwest CWA early this morning and is now
just south of I-30 with a few showers developing invof the front
during the past hour. Expect this trend to continue throughout the
rest of today with some isolated thunderstorms also possible with
the onset of heating. Due to the lack of deep layer moisture and
limited upper level support, have maintained lower pops despite
the presence of this front which should continue to slow its
forward progress as it encounters some resistance due to weak
ridging still present to the east. A range of temperatures will be
noted with the fropa today as highs will only reach the mid to
upper 70s along and north of I-30 with lower to mid 80s farther
south where frontal passage will not occur until later this
morning through the afternoon. Convection will begin to wane later
tonight as the front pushes farther south, but did maintain slight
chance pops generally south of I-20 through the evening hours.

Pleasant temperatures in the wake of the front will greet us over
the next few days, especially during the mornings with lows in the
50s and 60s on Tuesday and then even cooler the rest of the week
as another reinforcing cold front drops south late Wednesday into
Thursday with a deep trough carving out over the eastern half of
the country. Daytime temperatures will be quite warm on Wednesday
ahead of this next front with highs in the mid to upper 80s and
even some areas near 90 degrees across our southern half. Dry air
still in place will preclude any chance of rain ahead of the front
with dry conditions expected through the remainder of the extended
period. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected during the
late week and weekend timeframe as northerly flow prevails behind
the front. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  64  83  57 /  30  10   0   0
MLU  85  64  81  56 /  30  10   0   0
DEQ  76  55  81  51 /  30  10   0   0
TXK  79  59  82  57 /  30  10   0   0
ELD  80  60  80  53 /  30  10   0   0
TYR  79  63  82  58 /  40  20   0   0
GGG  82  63  83  57 /  40  20   0   0
LFK  85  67  85  61 /  40  20  10   0

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

09


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