Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 261631
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1031 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS RISING QUICKLY AS STEEP SFC BASED INVERSION IS OVERCOME AND
SW WIND AT 10 TO 15 MPH. HAVE RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES...TO AT
LEAST 70 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY JUST A
WIND SHIFT TO NW AS TEMPS OVER OK STILL WARMING QUICKLY BEHIND
FRONT...WHICH IS MOVING INTO SE OK ATTM. INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN SE OK/SW AR AROUND MID 60S./VII/.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR FLIGHT WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD ENDING AT 27/12Z. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WIND THIS MORNING
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS...
RESULTING SOME LOW LEVEL LIGHT TURB. /14/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NOTING THE RAPIDLY MOVING SHORT WAVE THIS
MORNING...DIVING SEWRD INTO NRN MO WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
ORIENTED FROM E CNTRL KS DOWN ACROSS NW OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON A STEADY SE TRACK INTO OUR REGION
LATER TODAY WITH WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT...PUSHING
AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 60S AREA WIDE WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER 70S
POSSIBLE DOWN ACROSS OUR FAR SRN TIER FROM TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY
EAST TO KISATCHIE. ASIDE FROM SOME SCT CIRRUS...THE ONLY IMPACTS
WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE NOTICEABLE WIND SHIFT AND COOLER AIR
TO FOLLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING DAY WILL RUN SOME
5-10 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO TODAY...ONLY WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME ISOLATED LOWER 60 READINGS SOUTH OF I-20.

THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER UP A WARMING TREND AS WINDS QUICKLY RETURN
SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S. A MORE
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP WILL ALLOW EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREA WIDE BOTH DAYS. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHWRS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY WITH SOME VERY WEAK
FORCING AHEAD A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF
OUR REGION ON MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NWRD AS A WARM FRONT PER
THE GFS WHICH IS APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT THAN THE ECMWF ATTM.
IF THIS SOLUTION HOLDS TRUE...IT SHOULD KEEP US MOSTLY UNSETTLED
UNTIL MID WEEK WHEN A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROF
AXIS MOVING INTO THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  36  58  35  65 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  70  35  54  32  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEQ  62  29  56  29  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  65  33  55  34  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  66  31  54  31  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
TYR  70  37  59  38  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  35  60  36  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  72  36  62  36  68 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$






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