Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS64 KSHV 250201
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
901 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Light scattered showers popping up North of Interstate 20 late
this evening, as well as isolated activity noted just south of
kshv. Have expanded chance pops to portions of Northwest
Louisiana and East Texas as well as raising pops to slight chance
category across portions of North central Louisiana, as some
computer models hint at the potential for additional activity.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 813 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
For the ArkLaTex, lots of VFR cigs and a light SE surface flow.
Aloft, our winds quickly veer around to SW/W 15-25KT into flight
levels. Speeds finally reach 50-70KT by fl300-320. Overnight we
will see some more IFR/MVFR mainly for cigs 09-15z. Convection
does look to pick up in the next day or two as the upper trough
brings lower heights/pressures aloft early in the holiday weekend.
Some improvements will occur late Sat as the upper ridge builds
back in it`s wake ahead of the next big west coast trough. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 426 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
This afternoon, the upper air pattern remained almost the same as
it has been lately. Ridging aloft from the Western Gulf of Mexico
into the middle sections of the country and with closed
lows/troughs across the West and East coasts. This synoptic
pattern to remain fairly unchanged through much of the forecast
period. The upper ridge of high pressure will shift East over the
later part of the work week with weak perturbations/disturbances
riding along in the Southwest flow contributing to the middle and
high level moisture while on the surface high pressure over the
Southeast States adds low level moisture. The Weak disturbances
in the flow aloft will contribute to daily convection mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. The more Northern zones
will typically see the higher chances for convection given
the location of the disturbances and available energy. An upper
low across Southern California will shift out across the Four
Corners Region during Thursday with rain chances for the forecast
area ramping up to high chance and likely categories for late
Thursday and into late Friday. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible for this period. rain chances will be eroding during the
weekend with the upper long wave trough shifting east of the area
and brief riding aloft returning to the Four State Region. However
for the late weekend the next upper low/trough off the West coast
returns the Southwest flow pattern as it swings across the Western
States and starts its track East. /06/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1254 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through much of the pd. Isold/sct
convection will be possible this afternoon, but models have been
largely unhelpful in determining where/when this will occur. Have
left mention out attm and will amend as necessary. Otherwise, MVFR
stratus is likely at most sites as we approach sunrise, but should
lift/mix out by around mid to late morning. Expect sly winds 5-12 kts
at most sites through the pd. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  87  73  85 /  30  20  10  40
MLU  70  89  72  87 /  10  10  10  30
DEQ  69  85  71  83 /  30  20  10  50
TXK  71  86  72  84 /  30  20  10  50
ELD  70  88  72  85 /  20  20  10  40
TYR  72  87  74  83 /  30  10  20  50
GGG  72  87  73  84 /  20  20  10  40
LFK  73  88  74  85 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.SHV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.