Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

006
FXUS64 KSHV 131713
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1113 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.AVIATION...
SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWING A DEEP SFC HIGH OF 1040MB
CENTERED OVER EASTERN MO AND WESTERN ILL. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MISS
VALLEY WITH LOWER PRESSURES NOTED ACROSS THE OK/TX PNHDL AND IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS GRADIENT IN COMBINATION WITH
SUFFICIENT MIXING WAS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12-14KTS
WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 23KTS NOTED ACROSS SOME TERMINAL LOCATIONS
EARLIER THIS MORNING. A QUICK CHECK OF OBSERVATIONS AS OF 17Z
SHOWED THAT THE GUSTS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT. FOR THE 18Z TAF
PACKAGE...HAVE WENT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 12KTS AREAWIDE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.

VIS SATELLITE SHOWING MOISTURE BEGINNING TO POOL ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS AND ITS THIS MOISTURE THAT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NE TX
TERMINAL LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
IN FACT...EXPECTING AT LEAST 3-4KFT CEILINGS SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS ALL OUR TERMINAL LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. KEPT THE ELD/MLU
TERMINALS WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT OUR NE TX
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR CATEGORIES
AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE MORNING ON
SUNDAY. COULD ALSO SEE 3-5SM VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT THE
LFK/TYR TERMINAL LOCATIONS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS WELL.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT TO SEE WINDS QUICKLY VEERING AROUND TO MORE OF
A SE DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AND A SE TO S DIRECTION ON SUNDAY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 8-12KTS.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING...WITH PREDOMINATELY CLEAR AND SUNNY SKIES
PREVAILING AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THIS MORNING AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...AS A COLD SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE...EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS RUNNING 13 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. THE MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE RETURN OF SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE LATER
TODAY...SO BELIEVE WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE CLOUDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE SO FOR THIS EVENING. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THESE TRENDS WELL...SO NO UPDATE IS PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

THE THREAT OF WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE REGION
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND THOUGH...AS A COUPLE OF
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS ARE
REALLY ONLY SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW...WITH
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON WASHINGTON/S BIRTHDAY...AS THE
SECOND AND MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. FOR
NOW...RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AT IMPRESSIVE...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING GIVEN OUR DRY START TO THE NEW YEAR. MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LESS THAN A HALF INCH...WITH UPWARDS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE AS WELL...BUT AT THIS POINT IN
TIME...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
REBUILDS OVER THE REGION. PALMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  56  41  60  51 /   0   0  20  60
MLU  50  35  60  51 /   0   0  20  60
DEQ  50  35  52  43 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  50  38  55  46 /   0   0  20  60
ELD  47  33  56  47 /   0   0  20  60
TYR  59  50  65  52 /   0  10  20  60
GGG  57  44  63  52 /   0   0  20  60
LFK  62  47  67  56 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

PALMER/13



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.