Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 290516
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1216 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 29/06Z TAFS...COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT
THAT WAS LOCATED VERY NEAR I-20 AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. KTXK
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE ANY IMPACTS FROM PRECIP
INITIALLY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE AS THE FRONT
MOVES NORTHWARD AND LOW STRATUS/PATCHY FOG MAY LEAD TO MVFR/PATCHY
IFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT AFTER SUNRISE AFFECTING MAINLY KTXK AND KELD.
ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE/PACIFIC COLD FRONT ACROSS TEXAS AND WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA AFFECTING MOST OF THE TAF SITES AFTER 29/18Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE EVENING SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
S OF ACT...TO NEAR DKR...TO LFK...ACROSS THE TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR
TO A IER TO HEZ LINE AS OF 02Z. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT
N ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...REACHING A DFW...TO OSA...TO ALONG THE
AR/LA LINE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY FOCUSED
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCT CONVECTION FROM NEAR/S OF ACT E INTO
ANDERSON COUNTY IN CNTRL/ECNTRL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED FARTHER N LATE TONIGHT WITH THE NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM
SECTOR...AND THE APPROACH OF A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL LIFT NE INTO NE
TX/SW AR/SE OK WELL AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES NOTED ON THE 00Z KFWD/KSHV
RAOBS/LOW WBZ HEIGHTS THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION TO THE
INCREASING DEEP LYR FORCING ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT
IN SCT ELEVATED CONVECTION QUICKLY INCREASING LATE TONIGHT OVER
NE TX/SW AR/SE OK...WHICH MAY YIELD A FEW HAILERS OVER THESE AREAS
LATE.

HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT...MAINLY TO
LOWER POPS THROUGH 06Z FOR E TX/NCNTRL LA...BEFORE POPS RAMP UP
LATE. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH AS TO THE COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. DID KEEP LIKELY POPS GOING FOR THE I-30
CORRIDOR OF NE TX/SE OK/SW AR...WHICH MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS A
LITTLE FARTHER SSE OF THIS AREA OVER E TX/NW LA/SCNTRL AR. ALSO
ADDED IN HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION FRIDAY OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE
OK/SW AR...AS CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL COULD TRAIN OVER
THESE AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE CONVECTION BEGINS
TO SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. WILL
ALLOW THE MID SHIFT TO EXPAND THE FFA AS NEEDED ONCE ADDITIONAL
MODEL DATA ARRIVES AND IS ANALYZED.

ALSO MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT...AS THEY
MAY ONLY FALL SLIGHTLY MORE OVERNIGHT NEAR/JUST N OF THE WARM
FRONT...AND SLOWLY RISE LATE.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  83  65  83 /  80  60  60  20
MLU  70  81  66  82 /  60  70  70  30
DEQ  66  81  58  79 /  80  50  30  10
TXK  68  82  62  81 /  80  60  50  10
ELD  68  80  63  82 /  70  70  60  20
TYR  68  83  63  81 /  80  60  30  10
GGG  69  83  64  83 /  80  60  50  10
LFK  70  83  67  82 /  80  60  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...NONE.
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

$$

09



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