Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 301944
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
244 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL HAS REMAINED A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST.
HAVE LOWERED POPS ON MORNING UPDATE FOR THIS AFTN...AND WIL
CONTINUE THE TREND FOR THE OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES. ISOLD CELLS
HAVE DEVELOP ALONG UPPER TROF FROM TX HILL COUNTRY INTO MO...BUT
WITH FAIRLY LOW MEAN RH VALUES...DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
FILL IN OVERNIGHT AND LEAVE NW HALF OF CWA IN ISOLD POPS...AND
HAVE LOWERED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS EASTERN CWA. ALSO KEEPING THUNDER
AS EMBEDDED DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND CURRENT TRENDS OF
LACKING IN DEEP CONVECTION. GOING MAINLY WITH GFS...WHICH PERFORMS
BETTER WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS COMING OUT OF THE GULF. INITIALLY
SHOULD SEE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF RETREATING GULF LOW AS WELL AS
UPPER TROF AT BASE OF WESTERLIES...WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION EARLY IN WEEK. AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SE STATES AND
ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE OVER SW STATES...MERGE INTO ONE BROAD RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE MID AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S
AGAIN...WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-20. HINTS AT DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW BY NEXT WEEKEND COULD BRING
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES INTO AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1151 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT WEATHER FOR THE 30/18Z TAFS.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BRING
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IN THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION...IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. EAST TEXAS...ADJACENT WESTERN LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL HAVE ONLY
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE
AFTER 31/00Z. CONTINUING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BRING A RETURN OF WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AFTER 31/06...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  92  76  95  75 /  30  20  10  10  10
MLU  72  91  74  94  74 /  50  30  20  10  10
DEQ  72  92  72  93  72 /  20  10  10  10  10
TXK  73  93  74  93  74 /  30  20  10  10  10
ELD  71  91  73  94  73 /  40  20  10  10  10
TYR  74  94  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  10  10
GGG  73  94  75  95  75 /  20  20  10  10  10
LFK  74  94  76  95  76 /  30  30  20  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$







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