Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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246 FXUS63 KPAH 181451 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 951 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers and thunderstorms may affect the region today, especially west Kentucky, while Sunday and Monday should be dry. - An active weather pattern sets up next week, with strong to severe thunderstorms possible during the mid week period. && .UPDATE... Issued at 951 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The Dense Fog Advisory expired as scheduled at 8 AM. Low clouds will gradually lift and scatter through the morning. The new morning guidance does not develop much convection over the Quad State today, but will leave the PoPs alone for now && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Calming winds and recent rainfall provide favorable conditions for dense fog development through the early morning. However, periods of cloud cover will limit the duration and coverage of dense fog. With moderate support from the HREF and a few sites below a mile by midnight, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued, though only Carbondale and Hopkinsville have dropped to a quarter mile vsby so far. Trends have been towards lower vsbys over the past couple hours but it is likely the end result will be a very hit or miss dense fog map. An upper low is crossing from Arkansas towards Tennessee, with a few showers and storms in northeast Arkansas that might sneak in but will generally stay south. Shower/storm chances increase to the chance range later today, mainly in southern portions of Western Kentucky, associated with the upper low. Following its departure, ridging moves through Sunday into Monday keeping conditions dry as temperatures trend warmer. An upper level low moves ENE towards Wisconsin Monday, keeping precip to the northern fringes of the CWA Monday night. Active weather reaches the area late Tuesday, continuing through the remainder of the week. Low pressure develops in the lee of the Rockies Monday night, deepening and progressing northeastward towards the northern Great Lakes on Wednesday. Breezy southerly winds ahead of the front will bring plenty of moisture to the Quad State Tuesday with highs a summer-like upper 80s to near 90. Models have nudged closer to a Tuesday night to Wednesday morning timing for a boundary, bringing showers and storms, with a stronger cold frontal passage later Wednesday. Strong storms and the possibility of some severe storms remains. The line-normal and progressive nature of the storm line should keep flooding issues limited despite the ample rainfall that has already occurred this month. Late week precip chances remain due to an impulse in the south and another system in the Northern Plains which might send another front through the forecast area. Ensemble spread increases following the Tuesday-Wednesday system so confidence in late next week is low. Following morning lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s, highs max out near 80 to the lower 80s today. A warming trend brings highs to the upper 80s Sunday and Monday with a few 90s possible Tuesday. Lows Monday and Tuesday night remain elevated in the upper 60s to near 70. Temperatures cool slightly following the midweek front. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Shallow dense fog and low cigs, which has resulted in LIFR conditions at several sites, will clear up within the first hour or two of the TAF period. Winds will be light today and cigs primarily around 4-5 kft. A chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be focused in Western Kentucky, but KPAH/KOWB are in the slight chance range along with portions of neighboring states in the Quad State. Calm winds and clear skies tonight will allow for the possibility of fog. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ UPDATE...DRS DISCUSSION...ATL AVIATION...ATL