Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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145
FXUS63 KPAH 200818
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
318 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TIGHTER ZONAL GRADIENT DEVELOPS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
AND DAMPENING LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE. COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER VORTICITY IN MINOR LOW AMPLITUDE NORTH-SOUTH SHORTWAVE
SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY. STILL BELIEVE
THE ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER AND COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
SHOWER GENERATION. OVERALL INSTABILITY ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORTED LIMITED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF
THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.

THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER AND NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY COOL/DRY FLOW
FROM THE DEPARTING RIDGE WILL DETERMINE THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE PRECIPITATION TODAY AND THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. THE HRRR AND GFS GUIDANCE SUPPORT A MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND FASTER SCENARIO, BUT WITH LESSER RESIDENCE TIME
FOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. BLENDED THIS GUIDANCE WITH
EXISTING FORECAST.

BEYOND TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM WITH MODELS
SHOWING MINOR DISAGREEMENTS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AN H5 RIDGE IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION BEGINS TO FLATTEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING DEEPER
MOISTURE AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES TO SPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS FARTHER EASTWARD...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GENERALLY
INCREASE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL PASS EAST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SHRA/RA WILL BE
ACCOMPANY IT THROUGH THE REGION. NOT SURE HOW FAST SATURATION WILL
OCCUR...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUICKER AND RESULT IN LOWER CONDITIONS AT KCGI
AND KPAH THAN AT KEVV AND KOWB. THE WORST CONDITIONS IN BR/DZ WILL
BE BEHIND THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS INTO THE EVENING. WENT AS
LOW AS IFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT KEPT
IT AT MVFR IN THE NORTHEAST. TRIED TO STAY ON THE OPTIMISTIC SIDE
OF GUIDANCE...SO LOWER CONDITIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS



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