Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 291904
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Higher surface TD`s and lower pressure aloft are helping induce
isolated to widely scattered showers in a more tropical like
atmosphere, and will continue to do so through the remainder of
the weekend. GFS appears largely overdone on convection but slgt
chance to low chance mentions are not too robust for the package,
esp on our cwa periphery/collaboratively speaking.

Low pressure aloft hangs around the mid MS and TN valleys into the
early week and with surface high pressure to the east...moist
southerlys will keep low layer moisture flux sufficient for daily
pop mentionables.

Highs/lows will remain nearly constant on the diurnal basis with
m-u80s/u60s-nr70s the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

Very warm and humid conditions will continue through the long-term
period under an expansive 500 mb ridge covering most of the eastern
and central states. The temperature forecast is straightforward, but
the precip forecast is not quite as clear. Most model guidance still
indicates this will be a dirty ridge, meaning that weak impulses and
pockets of scattered convection will be embedded within the ridge.

The general model theme has been for a weak upper low to meander
across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the entire long term
period. By late next week, this weak upper low may capture the
remnants of Tropical Storm Erika as it moves across the eastern Gulf
of Mexico. For the most part, the models have been keeping the upper
low and its associated qpf to the south and southeast of western KY.
Therefore, the forecast will be kept mostly dry. A slight chance pop
will be kept for southern parts of western KY during the more
unstable afternoon hours. There have been a few very notable
exceptions to the consensus, namely the 06z run of the GFDL
hurricane model, which brought a strong tropical system directly
into west KY.

As for temps, the stagnant air mass will translate into very little
change through the week. Highs will generally be around 90 with lows
in the mid to upper 60s. Model 850 mb temps are in the upper teens,
and ecmwf and gfs 2 meter temps and mos guidance are all very
similar.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A ribbon of moisture affecting mainly our western CWA may impact
KCGI/KPAH with mid level cigs and an isolated shower is even a
possibility. Otherwise mainly scattered VFR bases are anticipated
through the period with the potential for some MVFR patches of fog
early tmrw morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$



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