000
FXUS63 KPAH 230458
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

H5 LOW OVER NRN IOWA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. WILL LINGER A SMALL CHANCE OF WEAK
CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.
WILL CARRY SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AS THE MEAN TROF AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...EARLY IN THE DAY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS A DECENT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

MODELS STILL DIFFER FOR THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY WORK WEEK WEATHER
SYSTEM. ECMWF AND GFS BOTH SHOW LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST AT 00Z SUNDAY...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS STATES. GFS HAS THE PLAINS LOW FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE GFS...THUS KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER NORTH AND OUT OF THE
THE PAH FORECAST AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. ECMWF SHOWS ON
AND OFF CHANCES OF PRECIP THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. BOTH
MODELS ARE NOW REMAINING FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS.
GEM SEEMS TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF THE TWO...AND HAS BEEN TRENDING A
BIT MORE TOWARD THE FARTHER SOUTH ECMWF. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GEM
COMPROMISE...WHICH LEADS TO INCLUDING SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST COUNTIES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
THEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE TOO SIGNIFICANT
DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION. ECMWF TRIES TO
CONTINUE TO HANG ON TO THE PRECIP EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF BUILD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST U.S...SO WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN SEASONAL
AVERAGES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN MODERATING TO NEAR
SEASONAL ON SUNDAY. A RETURN TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW SATURDAY AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TOA GRADUAL WARM UP AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

A NICE BAND OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED ON A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE A
TEMPO AT KPAH AND KOWB FOR AN HOUR OR SO TO HANDLE IT WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AND A DECENT WESTERLY GUST.

OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. A LIGHT WEST WIND
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW VFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING...AS A
SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
REGION. THE CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...AND SOME SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AT KEVV AND KOWB. AN MVFR CEILING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT KEVV
AND KOWB LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED...SO ADDED A PREVAILING MVFR CEILING AT BOTH SITES.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS