Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300659
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
159 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

The NAM and the HRRR short term modeling of the southern IL
convection sweep it eastward, with the HRRR diminishing, and the
NAM maintaining it, as it moves into SWIN later this morning. Both
models suggest additional activity develops as well, mainly after
sunrise. Neither can resolutely pick up current conditions, with
both showing weaknesses in spatial organization of the mesoscale
happenings. Anticipate the general theme of scattered convective
elements in the high theta environ to continue, however, as we
head thru the daytime hours, providing additional support to high
CAPE airmass, as weak perturbations embedded in the cyclonic flow
aloft further agitate/enhance updraft potential Today.

A relative pause may then occur tonight, although the transition
to warm sectoring may still yield isolated cells here and there
even thru the overnight hours, in the basically unchanged airmass.

Ridging west, and troffing east, in the upper flow will drive a
nwly flow aloft by Sunday, with additional perturbation energy
diving southeastward and overtop the PAH FA. This will markedly
spike Pops by Monday, esp across the northern 2/3 of the FA, where
the bulk vort max energy advects. Therefore anticipate an
increasingly active convective environ Sunday into Monday, with
locally heavy rainfall in the high PW environ continuing to be the
primary hazard.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT Fri Jul 29 2016

For Monday into Tuesday, models keep a frontal system draped from
northwest to southeast from southern Illinois into west Kentucky.
Weak impulses moving along the front, along with diurnal heating,
will keep good chances of showers and thunderstorms across our
region Monday and Tuesday, with a bit lower chances Monday night. By
Tuesday night, models show the front a bit farther east, and with
loss of daytime heating, the focus for any showers and storms will
be across our eastern counties.  With the moist, unstable air mass
across the region, mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will
be possible primarily during the afternoon hours Wednesday and
Thursday, with a lull in activity Wednesday night and Thursday night.

On Friday, models are in pretty good agreement showing a cold front
approaching our region, moving it into central Illinois and central
Missouri by 00z Saturday.  This should give us increasing chances
of showers and thunderstorms through the day Friday.

South winds through the week will give us increasing warmth and
humidity.  High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Dew points will generally be in the lower to middle 70s, which will
give us heat indices around 100 degrees Monday and Tuesday, and in
the 100 to 105 degree range Wednesday through Friday, especially
across southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and far west Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 147 AM CDT Sat Jul 30 2016

Ongoing Convection could enter the KEVV/KOWB terminals by sunrise,
otherwise patchy fog restricting vsbys/cigs to IFR at times
abounds hit and miss throughout the flight terminal forecast area
til daylight. Additional/scattered daytime convection will then
lead to VFR/MVFR cigs with associated restrictions to vsbys in
thunderstorms when/where they occur, esp during the peak heating
hours. A relative pause in convection should then occur by
nightfall, with patchy fog again a potential late night flight
restriction with regard to lower cigs/vsbys.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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