Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221212
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
612 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 609 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Another blast of cold Canadian air will settle into the region
today and tonight. After highs up into the mid and upper 50s
on Tuesday, readings today will be some 10-15 degrees colder.
Highs may struggle to top 40 degrees along the I-64 corridor, with
only mid 40s near the TN and AR borders. After a hard freeze and
frosty start Thursday morning, winds will turn more southerly and
help temps moderate just a bit into the upper 40s to mid 50s. The
warming trend back to near seasonal temperatures will continue
on Friday as southerly flow increases ahead of the next cold
front sweeping southeast through the Plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

A western ridge/eastern trof mid level longwave pattern across the
CONUS will slowly began to change over the weekend as substantial
shortwave energy begins to impinge on the western ridge. Early next
week, the shortwave is progged to migrate eastward from the Pacific
Northwest and dive into the Plains states. The medium range
deterministic models were in excellent overall agreement.

Meanwhile, over the weekend, northwesterly to northerly surface
winds in the PAH forecast area will subside as the center of high
surface pressure moves overhead. This will be followed by increasing
southerly/southwesterly low level flow on the back side of the high.
By late in the period, fast flow aloft will be southwesterly ahead
of an approaching cold front. At this time, no pcpn is forecast
through the current Day 7 (Tue), but could occur just beyond,
associated with the front. Ridging aloft and at the surface in the
Gulf should limit the availability of deeper moisture, and thus QPF
should be on the light side.

The second half of the weekend will be relatively cool (highs 45-55,
lows around freezing) followed by a warming trend through Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 709 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Very dry airmass in place, so generally clear skies. Gusty north
winds are expected to subside as surface high pressure builds into
the area through the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB


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