Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 291832
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
132 PM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

Enhance cu field showing up on satellite to our north along weak
surface front/upper level vorticity. No precipitation along it
yet, but CAMs are pointing to scattered/isolated shower and a few
thunderstorms developing in the next few hours. These should enter
into the CWA around 6PM and slide southeast during the evening.
Most of the impact will be northeast of a Carbondale Illinois to
Cadiz Kentucky line.

A weak surface ridge will be in place on Tuesday keeping the area
dry until late in the afternoon when returning moisture may
produce a few scattered thunderstorms in the far west. The
moisture is being pulled up in response to a 90 kt jet streak
rotation around the base of a trough which remains over the
midwest. These dynamics will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. By Wednesday the
chances will mainly be over the southern sections as high pressure
pulls in drier air over the northern sections of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

Weak upper low is forecast to be over the southern / central high
Plains at the beginning of the period beneath a ridge extending
north over the Plains and Saskatchewan. Remnant energy from this
weak mid level feature is forecast by the models to travel east
through 12z Saturday, with increasing chances of warm sector
convection, as a surface front stays to our north. The 00z EC and
12z GFS are in reasonable agreement with the details, thus we
followed their lead with some ensemble incorporation. by 12z Sunday,
as heights fall over the NE U.S. in response to a digging vortex
over New England, a surface front should push south into the area.
The front is forecast to move through, possibly bringing an end to
our convective chances by late Sunday or Sunday night. So overall,
an unsettled period in the extended. Could be a couple of strong
storms mainly in the afternoon, early evening. Overall parameters
not overly favorable for severe. A blend of EC/GFS MOS was used
with temperatures around normal expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Tuesday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017

Mainly cirrus today with some sct050 cu at KEVV and KOWB. Light
southwest winds today. Widely scattered showers and possible
thunderstorms may affect KEVV or KOWB between 00Z and 06Z with
best chance at KEVV.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...PS



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