Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 071133 AAA

633 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

Issued at 633 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 204 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

Above average confidence through the first half of the short term
with very little going on and decent model agreement, then
confidence dropping off a little in the latter half of the period.

High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry
through Thursday. As we head through the week though, the upper
ridge begins to break down allowing a short wave to push a cold
front across our CWA Thursday night into Friday. Latest model
solutions show the front entering the northwest corner of our CWA
after midnight Thursday night and exiting the southeast corner by
midday Friday.

The major model differences at this time are timing and placement of
POPs and QPF with the frontal passage. With the aforementioned short
wave being rather sharp combined with decent deep layer moisture,
feel rain chances will be higher than previously expected, so raised
POPs to just below likely threshold. Right now it appears the best
rain chances area wide will be Friday morning, but as models get a
better handle on the situation, timing and/or POPs may have to be

The GFS, SREF, and NAM12 models currently indicate all precipitation
clearing the southeast corner of our CWA late Friday afternoon but
the ECMWF and Canadian want to hang up light precipitation over the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Friday evening, so
added small POPs there as a compromise.

Temperatures through Thursday should be well above normal through
the period with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Friday and Friday night temperatures will drop
back to near normal readings.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 204 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

High confidence in the extended.

The models are coming into tighter agreement with the the two fronts
set to move through the area. Saturday cooler and drier air will
move into the heartland on northerly winds. The extended init
appears to show a couple of biases i.e. light winds and too much
moisture. This is typical of most models to not catch on to the
drier air until its already in place. They do also tend to smooth
the wind speeds usually resulting in lower winds in the forecast.
Have adjusted the dew points down and the winds up mainly Saturday.
The southerly flow returns Sunday into Monday bringing a return of
moisture and warmer temps. Monday night or early Tuesday another
cold front will move through but with limited available moisture
would expect a mainly dry frontal passage. However cooler and drier
air should return to the area in the fronts wake. Again tweaked
winds up a bit for the fropa and drier and cooler for the middle of
next week.


Issued at 633 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

High pressure over the region will provide VFR conditions with the
exception of IFR/MVFR early morning fog. Winds will either be calm
or out of the north AOB 5 knots.




LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.