Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270434
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS BASICALLY CLEARED THE AREA AND STABILIZED
MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SEMO. WILL KEEP POPS
LOW REST OF TODAY. WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS TO OUR NW THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING WHERE INSTABILITY ZONE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MORE
CONVECTION OVER MO THAT COULD MOVE SE INTO THE REGION.

HEIGHTS BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER MOST OF THE TIME WE
REMAIN ON THE FRINGE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION...BEST CHANCES NE 1/2
OF THE AREA.

AS FAR AS THE HEAT...WILL LET THE MID SHIFT TACKLE HEAT HEADLINES.
NOT ISSUING ONE TODAY WAS THE RIGHT CALL. CHANCES OF REACHING
CRITERIA MUCH BETTER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER UNTIL WE
HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THINK WE CAN EVALUATE
MORE BEFORE ISSUING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL
STILL BE ANCHORED OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS WILL NO DOUBT KEEP
THE HEAT ON AND HUMIDITY UP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING US CLOSE TO OR AT THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE
AGAIN.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST
TODAY (SUNDAY)...WILL MOVE EAST AND A STRONG CLOSED LOW SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OVER MONTANA...WHICH WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CANADIAN PROVINCES DURING THE WEEK. THIS WILL END UP
FLATTENING/SUPPRESSING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER HIGH FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH WITH TIME AND EVENTUALLY IT WILL RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE
ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

WE WILL SEE SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE ENTIRE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN/SUPPRESS TO THE SOUTH
AND AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS CHANCE COULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BUT DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE DRY AIR INFILTRATES THE AREA...IT
COULD END UP BEING DRY. UNSURE AS TO THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AS THIS
POINT GIVEN THE WEAK NATURE OF THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN POOR
AGREEMENT ON QPF SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE SLIGHT/CHC CHANCE TO
CHANCE CATEGORY. DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. MODELS
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY WILL NOW BE DRY.

WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND DOMINATES
THE WEATHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOLER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S INSTEAD INTO THE 90S FOR THURSDAY THROUGH MOST
OF THE WEEKEND. WE MIGHT START SEEING TEMPS BACK NEAR 90/LOW 90S BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEEING A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL TREAT IT WITH A VCSH
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
SHOWERS IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH...SO KEPT THEM DRY. CONFINED FOG
FORECAST TO PREVAILING MVFR AT KPAH ONLY...AS IT IS THE LEAST
LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE SHOWERS OR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING BACK
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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