Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300851

351 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

Higher moisture levels around the western periphery of a sfc high
located over the eastern seaboard and an elongated trof of low
pressure aloft have been helping to induce isolated/scattered
showers in a more tropical like atmosphere. Low pressure aloft
will hang around the mid MS and TN valleys today, so will need to
continue with at least some chcy pops. Very weak mid/upper flow
will preclude much of a svr threat. The trof should weaken some
as we head into early week time frame. Though cannot rule out a
stray shower/thunderstorm here and there, believe chances will
generally be less than 20 percent Mon/Tue.

High temps will continue to be highly dependent on the amount of
sunshine received. Cloudier areas will stay in the lower half of
the 80s, with upper 80s to near 90 where more sunshine occurs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

High pressure centered east of the PAH forecast area will keep us in
a warm and humid pattern through the rest of the work week into next
weekend.  Temperatures will remain near to a little above normal.
At this point, models show weak upper level ridging keeping remnant
moisture from Erica well southeast of our region.  Models show no
significant disturbances moving across our area, so the extended
will be kept dry.


Issued at 1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A band of moisture associated with the presence of a weak mid level
trough will keep broken VFR clouds in place through much of the
forecast period. Added a VCSH mention to both KCGI and KPAH TAFs
overnight given the increase in light shower activity over southern
Illinois and southeast Missouri. Where it does occur, most of the
shower activity should be intermittent and light. Patchy MVFR fog is
also possible late tonight, but the cloud cover should preclude more
widespread coverage. Winds will be light and variable tonight, then
south-southwest AOB 10 knots on Sunday.




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