Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 122343
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
543 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 203 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Visible imagery shows some energy still rounding the base of the mean
long wave trof, with clouds affecting all but the far south/west
parts of our FA. These clouds will be gradually dispersing into
the night as the energy departs the Ohio valley, and much
colder/drier air plunges southward with the 1045 MB Surface High
pressure system that ridges across the Mississippi river valley by
12Z Sat.

The arctic airmass that overtakes the region will result in
tonight`s lows dropping to the single digits (north) and teens
(south). Saturday highs will be a good 15F colder than today`s,
largely in the 20s, despite some sunshine.

Late Saturday night is the technical beginning of the big late
weekend storm system. Some Pops and light accumulations will work
into the far northern counties...as upper energy starts to spill
southward out of the High Plains. Even with just a couple or three
hundredths of an inch qpf, given temps in the teens, we will see
LSR roundabouts 19 to 1, which will be good to produce about 1/2"
inch by 12Z Sunday, mainly around the MVN area.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 203 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

Models were in good agreement with timing of the Sunday into Monday
storm system. The main discrepancy continues to be qpf. The ECMWF
continues to be the outlier with more than double the qpf as most of
the other models would suggest. However I believe it is starting to
influence the superblend somewhat as latest qpf output has almost
doubled from the past couple days. This is the first run of the
superblend that has indicated 2 to 4 inches across the region. So
will maintain that for now but would like to see at least another
run or even two before embracing the numbers. There will likely be a
brief wintry mix as the snow changes over to rain Monday morning.
One consistent parameter is the timing of the most efficient snow.
The heaviest snowfall should occur between noon Sunday and 12z
Monday. Any mix should occur between 12z and 18z Monday. Finally
Monday afternoon any precipitation should be liquid. Some of the
soundings would suggest actually going dry after 12z Monday over
portions of the area at least. Will monitor this with successive runs
for possible tweaks to Mondays forecast.

Finally the models continue to show a warming trend after the
weekend with most areas well into the 50s to around 60 by next
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 543 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

Lingering low VFR to MVFR ceilings will shift east of the forecast
terminals overnight. VFR conditions are expected through the rest of
the forecast period. Gusty northwest winds tonight should subside to
10 knots or less by Saturday.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.