Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 212258

558 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

Issued at 554 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 301 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Radar has been showing light showers and sprinkles across parts of
the area all day, with the greatest concentration over southeast
Missouri and southwest IN. It it fairly dry in the lowest levels in
some places across the east, and sprinkles were noted in those
areas. Cold front is still poised well off to our west and will
continue making eastward progress later today and tonight. Short
term models have not done well with the ongoing precipitation. The
HRRR did pretty well early on but now the RAP models seems to be
doing ok. As the front approaches and until its departure, we will
continue to have scattered convection. The problem will be where and
when to place the best POPS as lift with this system is not too
strong. Will maintain at least scattered to likely wording for now.
With all the cloud cover, instability has been hard to come by, but
new thunderstorms are forming over northern Arkansas this afternoon,
which have some hope of moving into parts of the area.

Showers should quickly taper off from northwest to southeast between
05z and 10z Tuesday, with just a few showers possibly lingering in
our far southeast counties early Tuesday morning.

High pressure will build over the upper Mississippi valley Tuesday,
sliding slowly east over the Great Lakes region by Wednesday.
Winds out of the north on Tuesday will gradually shift to the east
by Wednesday, which will help give us cooler, near seasonal
conditions, as 900 mb temps drop back down into the single digits.
The region should see quite a bit of sunshine by Tuesday afternoon
and again on Wednesday with dry air in place over the area. Clouds
will increase late Wednesday night with increasing moisture ahead of
our next weather system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

The 12Z models are in fairly good agreement in bringing the
southern end of a mid/upper level trough eastward through the
area, with a cold front, Thursday afternoon and evening. The upper
system is negatively tilted, so there should be enough forcing to
overcome very meager instability and create a band of showers and
thunderstorms near the front. Wind fields will be pretty good, but
instability is lacking, so would not expect much of a severe
threat. A stray strong storm cannot be ruled out, though. given
the speed of the system, would not expect much of a heavy rain
threat either.

The cold front Thursday is quite weak, so temperatures will still
be well into the 70s for highs on Friday with plenty of sunshine.
However, all bets are off beginning Friday night, as the models
diverge significantly in the details for our region. The GFS is
the most amplified in developing a Omega blocking pattern centered
on our region. It is particularly strong with its eastern trough,
and pushes a significant cold front through the area Friday night
and Saturday morning. This should be a dry frontal passage.

The GFS ends up with a very skinny ridge running northward right
through our region. This would keep the eastern half of the area
under the influence of the cool surface high and precipitation
free over the weekend. The question would be how much convective
activity would slip southeast over our western areas from Saturday
night on through Monday.

The ECMWF is quite a bit less amplified with the east coast
trough, and has varied considerably with the southward push of the
cold front. The 12Z version stalls the east-west oriented front
right through our region, and has a rather wet forecast from
Saturday night through at least Monday.

The GFS looks too amplified, but the ECMWF has not been very
consistent in its frontal/precipitation details. Will have small
pops mainly in the west Saturday night and Sunday, and then just
broad brush 30 to 40 PoPs for Sunday night through Monday night.

Temperatures will be tricky given the different synoptic
possibilities, but in general, they should be at or above normal
through Sunday and then fall below normal for Monday.


Issued at 554 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

Incoming front will produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms, though the latter may wane with the setting sun. By
midnight or shortly thereafter, fropa will have occurred at all
terminals, eliminating the threat of MVFR conditions. Skies should
clear tmrw morning as winds shift to nlys and stiffen with gusts.



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