Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 060843
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG...TODAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
PARTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. UNLIKE SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SOME
WIND...AVERAGING AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BRING SOMEWHAT WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN JUST A BIT TOO WARM LATELY...SO FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
KEPT IN THE UPPER 80S FOR TODAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS SOME CONVECTION INTO SE MISSOURI AND SRN ILLINOIS LATE
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE THAT
WILL CROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS LATE TODAY. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
NOT REACH SW INDIANA OR THE PENNYRILE OF WEST KY UNTIL TONIGHT.

DURING THE NIGHT TONIGHT...MOST OF THE MESOCALE GUIDANCE
/ESPECIALLY THE NMM-WRF AND ARW/ DEVELOPS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SE MISSOURI. THE
00Z NAM IS A NOTABLE EXCEPTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI BY
12Z. GIVEN THAT THE LESS RELIABLE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE LEADING THE
WAY ON THIS PRECIP...FORECAST POPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY.

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SE MISSOURI
AND SRN ILLINOIS. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF
A KEVV/KCGI LINE TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. COMPARED TO MODEL RUNS THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL
LOCATION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED A
LITTLE LOWER WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. ALTHOUGH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN HAZARD...IT LOOKS LESS SIGNIFICANT THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
LIKELY POPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF A
KCGI/KPAH/MADISONVILLE LINE...WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTH.

THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER AND DRIER /AND IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT/...BUT IT IS ALSO AN
OUTLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS FINALLY COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND/OR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH POOLED-UP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL LIFT THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST.

BEYOND THIS POINT IS WHERE MODELS WERE PREVIOUSLY HAVING DIFFICULTY
COMING INTO AGREEMENT...IE ONE WAS SHOWING H5 RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHILE THE OTHER KEPT US IN ZONAL FLOW. LATEST RUNS NOW
SHOWING H5 RIDGING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE RIDGING TO BE A BIT STRONGER WHILE THE GFS
NOT SO MUCH. WITH BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN NEW MODEL RUNS...FELT
COMFORTABLE REMOVING TANGIBLE POPS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

DUE TO THE H5 RIDGING...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERNS ARE FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT...AND CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL EARLY MORNING AND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LOW VFR CLOUDS TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...DECIDED TO PLAY THE FOG FORECAST ON THE OPTIMISTIC
SIDE. LIMITED IFR VISIBILITIES TO KPAH OVERNIGHT WHERE THEY WERE
ALREADY 3SM BR AT 0445Z.

ANY ROGUE SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
NEAR KPAH AND KCGI TOWARD MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
THEREFORE NOT MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A WEAK MID
/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY FORCE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY


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