Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242011
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
311 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN WARMER TEMPS AND MORE
MIXING THAN INDICATED BY MOST OF THE MODELS. THE MIXING DOWN OF
STRONGER WINDS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH WILL EXPIRE EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THE
LOW LEVELS HAVE WARMED AND MOISTENED...INSTABILITY IS STILL WEAK
DUE TO MARGINAL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...AND THESE ARE
CONFINED TO THE OZARK FOOTHILLS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE...WITH
40 TO 50 KNOTS OF NEARLY UNI-DIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM 925 TO 500 MB
LATER THIS EVENING. AS NOTED BY SPC...THIS IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ROTATION IN DISCRETE CELLS OR
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WANE
AFTER DARK...WHEN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CROSS OUR AREA. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF ANY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE
OVER SE MISSOURI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH A SLOW WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

ON MONDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL REACH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL DIMINISH IN THE
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS. IT WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM AND
HUMID...AND YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EVENING. THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE 500 MB
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES NORTHEAST...APPROACHING THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
AT 12Z TUESDAY. WIND FIELDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. PRECIP
WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

TOTAL RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FROM BOTH SHORTWAVES IS EXPECTED OVER SE MISSOURI...WHERE
ONE TO TWO INCHES IS FORECAST IN EACH EVENT. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
FALLS TONIGHT...THE SECOND EVENT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MAY
WARRANT SOME FLOODING CONCERNS THERE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A WARM AND HUMID SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK TO
COME...FOLLOWED BY A WET WEEKEND.

THE MODELS SEEM TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE
FOCUSED ALONG A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONNECTING THE RECENTLY
DEPARTED SYSTEM TO A NEW WARM FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS. WENT
WITH BETTER CHANCES UP THERE DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS SIGNAL.
OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK THROUGHOUT THE LAST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN CLIMB AT LEAST INTO MIDDLE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS THIS CAPTURED WELL...SO NO NEED TO DEVIATE FROM IT. THE
HUMIDITY MAY PUSH HEAT INDICES UP NEAR 90 BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE GREATER...AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. BEST GUESS AT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
WOULD BE SOMETIME SUNDAY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER
WEAK...SO THE SEVERE THREAT NEXT WEEKEND SEEMS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CONVECTION AND RELATED
CLOUD COVER. FIGURE HIGHS WILL TREND DOWN TOWARD 80 OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE
VFR...GENERALLY AROUND 5K FEET AGL. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY FROM
THE SOUTH...WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FAIRLY COMMON.

AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TAF SITES
TONIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE...THE
LEADING EDGE OF STORMS SHOULD REACH THE KCGI/KPAH AREAS IN THE 02Z
TO 06Z TIME FRAME. WINDS MAY BE STRONG AND GUSTY ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF STORMS. THE STORMS WILL THEN CROSS THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS IN
THE 05Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE
IN STORMS...BUT NOT OF SUFFICIENT DURATION TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.

FOLLOWING THE STORMS...SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
IN SHOWERS AND FOG LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID MORNING MONDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...MY



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