Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 181213

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
613 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Issued at 613 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

Also updated the public forecast (higher POPs & slightly higher
QPF) to better reflect the ongoing and near term expected rainfall
across the FA. The main forecast impact will be higher POPs,
primarily across the southern part of the FA.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

The main forecast concerns in the short term are the rain chances
and associated QPF today and again beginning Monday.

A closed 500mb low will weaken as it progresses NE across the FA
today and then exits to our east by this evening. Moisture advection
across the FA will be limited with this system and thus QPF remains
fairly light with the GFS and ECMWF generating 1/4 to 1/2 over the
FA (southern 2/3 of FA) except little to none over the I-64 corridor
of S IL and SW IN. The HRR and RAP are generating about half those
amounts (and mainly over SEMO) with the NAM even less. Will tweek
amounts slightly but overall keep the lesser amounts which is also
closer to WPC guidance. The model consensus is good that rain will
end by this evening followed by surface high pressure ridging over
the FA Sunday.

The surface cold front remains on schedule to move east toward the
FA Monday bringing a chance of rain to mainly SEMO Monday. The front
will slow down as it reaches our region but should still progress
far enough east to bring a chance of rain to all the region by late
Monday night. QPF Monday and Monday night should average 1/4 to 1/2
inch over SEMO to mostly less than 1/10 inch E of the Mississippi
River. For now will keep keep thunder out of the forecast but it
may need to be added in later forecasts.

The unseasonal warmth will continue with highs in the lower to
mid 60s today with the cloud cover, then around 70 Sunday and
lower 70s Monday.

.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

An upper level long wave trough that we have been watching for
several days now, seems to be handled fairly well now by the
models. This trough should be traversing the region on Tuesday and
providing a decent chance for rain. Will maintain the low end
likely POPs that we have going mainly east of the Mississippi. As
was noted yesterday, we should see the precip ending from west to
east late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. The clouds and
rain will limit our potential to reach the 70 degree mark, but it
will be close (mid - upper 60s).

Wednesday into Wednesday night will be dry and quiet with
temperatures rising to around 70 degrees. By Thursday, the pressure
gradient tightens as a low pressure system develops in the eastern
Rockies and slides east into the central Plains by 00Z Friday.
Temperatures on Thursday should be similar to Wednesday, as the main
area of WAA remains to our west still. The GFS/ECMWF paint some
minor QPF over the area Thursday into Thursday night as moisture
increases but not really much to focus any activity on right now, so
kept POPs low.

The sfc low in the central Plains moves northeast into the
Midwestern states on Friday. The cold front associated with this
system pushes through during the day on Friday, bringing a chance
for rain and possibly a few storms. This is a bit quicker than
previous runs. Precipitation chances dwindle significantly Friday
evening and although we may have some wrap around cloudiness to deal
with late Friday night, dry conditions will return and last through
Saturday as high pressure finally builds into the area. Highs on
Saturday will be back down to near normal.


Issued at 254 AM CST Sat Feb 18 2017

Light rain was reported early this morning at several stations,
including POF. Expect showers to move through or near KCGI and
then KPAH over next several hours. More scattered and even lighter
rain showers wil move over or near KOWB and KEVV this morning,
although the better chance will be midday and into the afternoon
at those locations. Cloud heights will lower this morning,
especially at KCGI and KPAH but are still expected to teeter at
the VFR-MVFR threshold. Visibilities should remain largely VFR,
but with some restriction in areas of rain. Some fog and IFR to LIFR
cigs are possible late tonight as skies clear and temperatures
drop in the wake of the fallen rain. Winds through the period
will be south to southwest at 5 to 10 knots.



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