Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 022353

653 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Issued at 653 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

A vort extension north of an upper low over the gulf coast
states supported showers to our east most of the 1st half of the
day. The activity was moving west as forecast, with rain already
at KOWB. Will continue with our chance of light rain/showers over
the east 1/2 of the area. Raised PoPs SW Indiana into the West KY
Pennyrile given ongoing conditions. With the upper low continuing
to spin over the Gulf Coast states this weekend, we will continue
to see impulses rotate around the low, westward across our area.
The PVA areas appear weaker than this initial one. Will just
carry some small rain shower chances across the area over the
weekend. Should not be a big deal in terms of QPF, duration,
coverage. More clouds than anything. We went above MOS again
tonight, closer to MAV given clouds and wind. Used a blend of base
model output and MOS Saturday through Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Medium to low confidence in the extended.

There is a great deal of discontinuity between the models in the
extended. The 06z GFS is much faster with the upper low in the
plains by midweek. It actually opens up and progresses much farther
east into the mid Mississippi Valley by next weekend. The 12z Friday
GFS run is actually faster than the 6z with the low in here by
Friday morning with what appears to be a surface reflection of cold
front moving into the area. The latest ECMWF is much slower as it
keeps the low closed and much farther to the south and west. As
previously stated the GFS tends to be overly aggressive in the
extended with this type system. Later runs usually tend to slow
everything down in time. However it may not slow as much as the
ECMWF but come much closer. It does however become cutoff and allows
the parent short wave to progress eastward with a cold front similar
to the GFS but keeps it much more north...keeping rain chances to
the north of the cwa until at least the weekend...then dries it up
or washes out as it moves into the fa. Will lean toward the slower
drier ECMWF solution as the previous shift did but will also wait
and see what the extended init and collaboration yields before final
determination is made.

Temps will be in a warming trend all next week with slightly warmer
temperatures each day through the extended.


Issued at 653 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2015

Radar indicates that scattered showers or light rain will impact
all but KCGI at least through the evening hours. Figure on
occasional MVFR conditions through the evening, and then MVFR
ceilings should set in at all sites overnight and through the
morning. Cannot rule out some IFR ceilings, especially at KOWB.
Could also see showers lingering pretty much through the entire
period at KOWB.

Ceilings should improve some through the day. VFR is likely by
afternoon in the west, but not so sure the east will see anything
better than MVFR.

All evidence points to the pressure gradient increasing this
evening, and some guidance has winds sustained around 15kts
tonight. Winds have died down at 00Z, but they should increase to
match the forecast shortly.




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