Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 161848

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1248 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1241 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Near term warming has commenced, with all obs in the 50s and now
60s being flirted with in the south. Time/Heights show a dry
column below 400 MB until the early weekend system. Warm air
advection will kick in more earnest tmrw, and with a warmer start
in the upper end 30s, we should see the mercury rise well thru the
60s tmrw, providing an early spring like day. Fire wx parameters
will be marginal, with winds in the teens (gusts) and rh`s mins in
the 30s percentile.

For Fri night-Saturday, we see Low pressure lifting across the Red
River Valley and its associated moisture advecting northward/up
the lower Ms valley. The predominant ridge line is ushered east
across the Tn valley Fri night as the Low drifts into Arkansas.
Light overrunning showers, or chance thereof, will be possible
mainly Saturday, as the Low drifts into/across west Tn. Pops then
wind down/diminish in our farthest southeast Sat evening as the
Low is pushed toward the Carolinas by an incoming ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

An upper level ridge will begin building into the region on Sunday,
as a deep trough moves into the southwestern US/Mexico. This will
send our temperatures soaring into the upper 60s to lower 70s as
850mb temperatures rise into the double digits in most areas by the
end of the day. This upper level ridge will begin shifting east on
Monday, as our next storm system moves into the southern Plains
states and eastern Mexico. So another day in the upper 60s to lower
70s is on tap for Monday.

On Tuesday, our next chance for precipitation arrives. The upper
level low associated with the trough to our west, will be situated
just off the coast of south TX by Tuesday afternoon. The northern
extent of this upper level trough is much weaker and should be of no
consequence. However, models are differing as to how far north
moisture gets lifted ahead of the aforementioned upper low off the
east coast of TX. With this slow moving system, if enough moisture
does get pulled northward, we could have several periods of rain,
lasting through at least Wednesday night. It looks like the GFS
model had backed off this idea for a while with previous runs and is
now more robust bringing in precipitation. The GFS ensembles sure
seem pretty excited about the prospects as well, as is the Canadian.
The ECMWF is much drier. How much of the area receives precipitation
will depend on the track of this system. Right now, the chance type
POPs will work. How much cloud cover and rain we receive will make a
difference in our high temperatures as well. We will maintain
readings in the 60s for now for the Tuesday through Wednesday time
frame. If we do end up drier...warmer temperatures, even into the
70s will likely result.


Issued at 1241 PM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Time/height cross sections show only high level moisture possible
thru the effective valid time. Anticipate southerlies predominant
thru the package, with some gusts into/thru the teens peaked
diurnally today and tmrw.




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