Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300934
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
334 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Above average confidence in the short term due to good model
agreement and very little to discuss.

Overrunning precipitation over the southern Pennyrile region of
western Kentucky at the time of this writing should be coming to an
end within the next couple of hours as the forcing for ascent
aloft moves off to the east.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and slowly rising H5
heights are expected to keep the region dry through the end of the
short term period.

Temperatures will remain within a couple of degrees of normal
through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

As early as Saturday, pcpn is possible across the southern half of
our region, as isentropic lift ahead of an eastward-moving southern
stream low pressure system taps into deepening columnar moisture
over the region. By Saturday night, the pcpn signal will increase,
with a northern stream mid level shortwave approaching the Midwest
and increasing the lift of moisture further. In addition, ice
nucleation appears possible, and low level temps should be cold
enough for some light snowfall mixed with rain in southwestern IN,
most of southern IL, and the northern Pennyrile region of KY. Ground
temps are still warm, so about all those areas might see after
midnight will be flakes in the air, and no impacts are expected.
Pcpn should be all rain by mid morning Sunday, and moving away to
the east quickly. Sunday night and most of Monday should be dry.

The medium range models/ensembles continue to be a bit unstable with
the positioning of the southern stream low, especially after the
weekend. The low will still be around in some form at the end of the
weekend. The question is where? The 00Z ECMWF appeared to be the
slowest with its eastward movement and eventual absorption into the
flow aloft. By late Monday, model consensus suggests that counties
near the AR/TN state lines will be the first to receive measurable
rainfall, followed Monday night by the rest of the region as the
rain shield expands northward. This swath of pcpn will be a result
of remnant mid level shortwave energy from the former closed low,
best depicted by the 00Z GFS. Rain is forecast to move out once
again during the day Tuesday under southwesterly flow aloft.

Temps are currently forecast to warm to above seasonable averages
late in the extended period. No outbreaks of arctic air are
currently seen through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Some scattered showers continue to stream northeast through the
southeast corner of the area. A light shower may reach KOWB in the
next hour or so, otherwise this is a dry forecast.

Surface high will build eastward across the area overnight, so
calm or southwest winds will become northwest by morning. The
visibility at KCGI quickly tanked as winds went calm in the last
hour, but this should be short-lived as the northwest winds kick
in next hour or so. Will insert a BCFG there for the first hour of
the forecast, but it should be VFR for the rest of the night.
Cannot rule this brief fog at other sites overnight.

As a stacked low pressure system moves east to our north, winds
will back to the west southwest and gust into the teens in the
afternoon throughout the area. Stratocu are expected to spread
east across the region in the afternoon and evening. A brief
ceiling condition cannot be ruled out, but it should be above
3kft.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



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