Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 060456

1155 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Revised aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

UPDATE... Issued at 848 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

The forecast is in great shape with high clouds streaming overhead
and light north winds. Just updated to make only minor adjustments
to evening trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

General dry high pressure will prevail at the sfc throughout the
short term period. There should be increasing high cloudiness late
today/early Tue, especially west of the MS River, associated with
a minor mid level shrtwv impinging on a ridge over the PAH
forecast area. Otherwise expect partly to mostly sunny skies. The
sfc pressure gradient is forecast to slacken a bit by Tue as a
closed low over the sern CONUS moves newd and away. This pattern
we will be in will provide nrly sfc winds through almost the
whole period. Despite the nrly winds, the higher heights of the
ridge should still translate to warmer than average temps at the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

An upper level trof is forecast to move from the Upper Midwest to
the Mid Atlantic states 12z Thursday through 12z Saturday.
Accompanying frontal boundary will approach Thursday night, reach
about the Ohio River around 12z Friday and then clear the area to
the southeast by afternoon. Associated band of moisture and
potential convective precip expected to accompany the systems.
Expect most of the activity Thursday night into the first 1/2 of
Friday. Timing wise used a blend of the slightly faster GFS and
slower ECMWF. For Friday night through Monday, dry weather is
forecast, with little cloud cover. High pressure will slowly move
southeast across the east 1/2 of the nation with mid level northwest
flow becoming more prominent. Temps will continue to be a blend of
persistence and MOS.


Issued at 1155 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

VFR conditions will continue at all forecast terminals over the next
24 hours. North to northeast winds AOB 10 knots will prevail as high
and mid level clouds stream overhead. Patchy fog is possible at fog
prone locations (eg, KCGI) towards daybreak, but light winds and
increasing high clouds should limit the extent of any fog formation.




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