Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 282347
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO CATCH UP TO RADAR TRENDS THIS EVENING.
SHOULD SEE THE SOUTHWARD PUSH CONTINUE UNTIL IT GIVES UP BY AROUND
03Z.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

ANOTHER VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY TODAY OVER MOST OF THE QUAD STATE
REGION...WITH AFTERNOON NEAT INDICES GENERALLY IN THE 105 TO 115
DEGREE RANGE. MANY PUBLIC REPORTS CLOSER TO 120 CAME INTO THE
NWS...AND THE OFFICE ITSELF HIT 113 A FEW TIMES. WILL NEED TO
EXTEND HEAT HEADLINES THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. TOMORROW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE JUST AS HOT AS TODAY...EVEN THOUGH STORM CHCS MAY
INCREASE SOME WITH A FRONT COMING INTO THE REGION. IN FACT...BASED
ON WHAT WE SAW TODAY...HAVE OPTED TO ALSO EXPAND THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING A BIT FARTHER EAST INTO SW IL/WRN KY. WILL NOW
INCLUDE AREAS FROM THE CARBONDALE/MARION AREA DOWN THROUGH PADUCAH
AND MAYFIELD LOCATIONS.

A BONAFIED COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY LAG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE A BIT...BUT IN ESSENCE THE FRONT SHOULD SERVE TO
BRING AN END TO THE CURRENT HEAT WAVE. AGAIN...SCATTERED MAINLY
NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
WED...BUT UPPER SUPPORT AND WIND FIELDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND LOW
LVL CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO BE QUITE WEAK.

MUCH NICER MID SUMMER TIME WEATHER SHOULD FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
AND NORTHERLY WINDS USHER MORE COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY INTO THE
REGION. HIGH TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE
80S TO NEAR 90.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AT THE END OF THE WEEK...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATING THE
REGION. A DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. A REINFORCING SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...KEEPING THE CWA RAIN FREE ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS A LITTLE MESSIER AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE VERY
END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRYING
TO HINT AT A FROPA OR AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING THROUGH
SOMETIME DURING THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE GFS BEING THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS NOW TRYING TO HINT AT IT AS WELL.
DO NOT PLAN ON TRYING TO NIT PICK SPECIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT FAR
OUT IN THE FUTURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROPA THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SURE LOOKS PUNY. WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FOR THE DURATION OF THE EXTENDED...WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
WATCH OUT FOR MORE POTENT AND PERSISTENT SIGNALS FOR PRECIP THOUGH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD
NOT GET TOO OUT OF CONTROL EITHER GIVEN THE LACK OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ALTHOUGH SOME EVAPOTRANSPIRATION WILL ADD SOME MOISTURE BACK
INTO THE AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

TSRA WILL FLIRT WITH KPAH AND KOWB EARLY THIS EVENING. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR RAINS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT SURE WHAT TO MAKE OF THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE 18Z GUIDANCE HAS A DECENT SIGNAL
FOR CONVECTION IN THE KEVV AND KOWB VICINITIES AROUND 12Z...SO
THREW IN A PROB30 FOR TS. COULD SEE THIS AGAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...FIGURE FOG LATE TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE
LIMITED...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING...UNLESS A SITE GETS SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL THIS EVENING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ084-085-
     088-089-092>094.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ075>078-080>083-
     086-087-090-091.

MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ001>006.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ007>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS


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