Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 202006
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
306 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to slight model
uncertainity.

Showery precipitation has come to an end across our CWA as
surface low moves to the south and east and frontogenetical
forcing dwindles. With the approach of a short wave later this
afternoon into this evening wouldn`t be surprised to see a few
isolated showers/patches of light rain/patchy drizzle, especially
over the northeast half of the CWA, so left small pop chances in
there. With the passage of the short wave trough axis,
precipitation chances should go away after midnight.

Wouldn`t be surprised to see scattered light showers over the far
northeast sections of our CWA from late tonight into Saturday
morning as a lobe of upper level energy rotating around a low over
southeast Canada dives southward across that part of our CWA.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft should
keep the region dry with moderating temperatures through the end of
the short term period.

Temperatures will remain below normal through most of the period,
but will moderate back to near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

Monday may the best chance for a dry day through the extended. There
will be dry periods through the week. However with a series of
perturbations caught up in the southwest flow and the gulf supplying
plenty of low level moisture. At times there is also Pacific
connection supplying moisture aloft as well. The timing of these
kinks in the flow is difficult at best. However the models are still
focusing the best chance of rain with highest rainfall amounts will
be Wednesday. The upper ridge tries to build back into the region
toward the end of the week but for now the apex appears to be
farther to the east. This will allow for another pulse of energy
even on Friday to flow through the area in the persistent southwest
flow. As this ridge builds it will force the low over the southern
rockies to head northeast into the northern plains by late in the
week. The high continues to hold the cold front to our west over the
plains for the week. there is sufficient instability for thunder
with any precipitation. Early on it will be elevated and become
surface based by mid week. Expect persistent southerly flow through
the week and gusty during the daylight hours each day in the
extended. Temperatures will be at or possibly slightly above normal
through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Shower activity possible at KOWB/KEVV early along with MVFR
cigs and/or vsbys. Beyond that sprinkles/drizzle a small
possibility at all sites this evening. VFR conditions expected to
prevail at KCGI/KPAH through the period, however MVFR cigs and/or vsbys
expected to continue at KOWB/KEVV due to lingering deeper moisture
there. Isolated thunder chances continue to be primarily
south/east of terminals this afternoon. Winds AOB 10 knots out of
the north northeast gradually back around to the north northwest
by the end of the period.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM...KH



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