Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280441

1141 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2014

Issued at 1141 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Fairly high confidence in the short term. Mainly dry weather to
continue. A very weak trof of low pressure aloft will move into
the MS River valley on Sunday. However, over all moisture and weak
little to no low level forcing will likely preclude much in the
way of precipitation, so will go no higher than slight chc of
showers, and that will mainly be over western KY, where moisture
may be a little deeper.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

High pressure will build back into the region early next week
resulting in warm, sunny afternoons and clear, cool nights Monday
through Wednesday. Most models still produce a fairly strong
signal as we head into Thu and Thu night. A stronger upper level
system and accompanied cold front should develop in the Plains
Wed...then move east into the MS River Valley Thu/Thu night.
Latest operational GFS seems to have the strongest signal with this
system, and even ejects the h50 shortwave with a slightly negative
tilt. This would suggest the possibility of stronger thunderstorms
along with the potential for heavy rainfall. ECMWF run is much
less aggressive, but still suggests a good chc of some needed
rainfall. Most data suggest a quick return to much cooler and
drier conditions by late week into early next weekend.


Issued at 1141 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

Cannot find enough instability in the latest guidance to support
even light showers at KOWB and KPAH in the afternoon, so removed
any mention of them. That leaves early morning fog as the only
concern to aviation. Have not seen any sign of visibility
reductions at KPAH or KCGI as of yet, so maybe the strong mixing
from Saturday afternoon is having an impact. Left the magnitude of
the fog forecast the same at both sites, but did push the onset
back a few hours.




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