Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241726
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

There are no significant changes in the model runs regarding the
upcoming storm system this weekend. There is greater confidence in
some of the finer details, such as the timing of precip and
intensity trends.

Today will be mainly dry, breezy, and warmer. A strong southerly
flow will gradually moisten the lower levels. Widespread low
cloudiness moving north from Alabama and south central Tennessee
as of 08z may affect parts of our area today. Mid and high clouds
will increase from the west. All areas are expected to reach the
70s today. Depending on the amount of sun today, some locations
could rise well up into the 70s. There is a slight chance of some
isolated showers or thunder in se Missouri late today in an area
of weak instability ahead of the main area of precip.

Widespread showers and isolated thunder will overspread much of
our region from west to east tonight. The models indicate the
heaviest rainfall and strongest convective cores will be over
southeast Missouri tonight. While shear profiles will be favorable
for organized storm structures, instability is very limited in the
models. A few marginally severe storms are possible. The models
forecast the precip to gradually decrease overnight as it crosses
east of the Mississippi River. The nam in particular indicates a
weakening trend, with qpf 1 to 3 inches in se Missouri but less
than an inch east of there.

As the first wave of precip weakens east of the Mississippi River
on Saturday morning, another area is forecast to develop over
Missouri (per the 00z nam/gfs) and then move east across the Lower
Ohio Valley. This second area of showers and storms will be in a
somewhat more unstable air mass, due to a combination of diurnal
heating and cooling aloft from the upper-level low. Even so, the
models forecast mucapes to remain under 1000 j/kg. If pockets of
clearing were to develop, there would be some potential for
a more organized severe weather event. However, the prospect of
widespread clouds and morning rain will likely result in a
relatively low (marginal) severe risk.

The activity will diminish from west to east Saturday night as the
upper low moves northeast across central Illinois. The trailing
shortwave trough will cross our region by 12z Sunday. Instability
and shear will diminish quickly in the evening.

Sunday appears mainly dry, although some lingering showers are
possible in southwest Indiana and adjacent areas. The lower levels
will remain rather warm and moist, but subsidence in the wake of
the shortwave will result in partial clearing for many places.
Highs will be near 70.

The next system will approach from the west/southwest on Sunday
night, likely bringing some showers and storms into se Missouri
late. The showers and storms will be elevated north of a warm
front.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Average to above average confidence through the long term due to
decent model guidance.

The long term period starts off wet as a system emerging from the
southern plains takes aim on the lower Ohio valley. Precipitation
chances will max out Monday afternoon and evening with the passage
of said system, then diminish from west to east late Monday night
into Tuesday morning in its wake. Just enough instability to warrant
the mention of thunder Monday and Monday night.

Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night should be dry due to high
pressure at the surface and weak H5 ridging aloft. May see some warm
advection overrunning showers/storms over our far western counties
Wednesday morning as yet another storm system begins to emerge from
the southern plains. With the area being in the warm sector combined
with weak ridging aloft, Wednesday afternoon may be dry.

Starting Wednesday evening, precipitation chances begin to increase
through the rest of the period as the aforementioned system slowly
approaches the region. Again just enough instability to mention
thunder chances Wednesday through Thursday.

Temperatures will generally be 8 to 12 degrees above normal through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Mainly VFR cigs 3-5k/ft this afternoon with SSW winds gusting
20-30 kts at times. Similar conditions this evening, though the
winds may let up just a tad. Chance of convection will increase
from west to east overnight. Have a conservative intro of
convective elements in the TAFs for later in the night into
Saturday morning. More adjustments will be forth coming as the
system develops. Winds will back to more of a southeast direction
tonight and continue Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$


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