Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240427
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1127 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Not sure how much of the current convective activity will hold
together as it approaches SW IN...the KY Pennyrile. NAM seems a
bit too aggressive. Will keep slight chance PoPs in most areas,
late afternoon, very early evening, slightly higher along the
KY/TN border. Otherwise, best chances tonight will be later and
across the NW part of the CWFA.

Will have a low chance of convection in for Wednesday, then
heights will build through Thursday with best convective chances
shifting mostly north of the region. Warmer and back to the
humidity again. Used a MOS blend for temps.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Medium confidence toward the end of the week. Low confidence as we
head into next week with vast differences in model solutions.

Starting Thursday night an upper level high pressure system is
firmly entrenched over Kentucky and into the gulf states. This high
is vertically stacked from the surface up through the mid to upper
levels. This will result in a strong gulf flow around the western
edge of the high. Most of this moisture will remain west of the
Mississippi River but we will also advect east of the river with
time. Now east of the aformentioned river could see some diurnal
convection but believe the loss of heating will make for mostly dry
nocturnal conditions. Both the GFS and ECMWF are very similar
although the GFS is advertising a much more dirty high than the
ECMWF. We do have a very weak cold front expected to reach the area
Friday into Saturday which will result in higher pops if it actually
makes into the region before stalling and lifting back north. This
will be a collaboration...extended init...and wait and see scenario.
Now as we start to head into next week both models start to drift
the high off the southeastern seaboard. This very much could guide
be the deciding factor for the low invest (AL99) track which the
latest ensembles have it headed straight for Miami. This would match
up nicely with the ECMWF. The GFS is more stubborn with the high
which hold off AL99 from reaching the coast. Either way it would
have little impact on our area outside of some additional cloud
cover. Temperatures will return to well above normal with highs
around 90 and dew points in the 70s. This will result in heat index
values in the upper 90s to near a 100 through most of the
extended.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

With the 06z Wednesday TAF issuance, the middle and upper level
ridge is more pronounced than earlier numerical model runs working
west-northwest through Wednesday. The capping effect of the ridge
will essentially eliminate rain chances for the TAF locations and
reduce the impact of lower VFR ceilings with time. Therefore, this
package is mainly a VFR forecast for all TAF locations as the
ridge dominates the area, mostly likely through Thursday as well.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith



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