Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150942
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

No changes to the Winter Weather Advisory. Could have played with
the expiration times, as the accumulating snows will be over a bit
faster than expected, but decided to keep it simple for now. We
can always cancel earlier if necessary. However, we will be
issuing a Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight through 11 AM
Tuesday for northern and northeastern portions of the Quad State.

Running way behind this morning, so will attempt to be brief. The
00Z models have trended wetter. They also are quicker to bring the
accumulating snows to an end in the north, but hold them up over
west Kentucky a little later. Would not be surprised if the snows
eventually linger into Tuesday morning near the Tennessee border
regions, as the larger-scale upper trough approaches. However, for
now PoPs taper to chances after 06Z Tuesday, so we will leave the
expiration alone for now.

The model consensus increase in QPF is not hard to believe given
the impressive radar mosaic at this time. The WPC QPF is the
highest of all, and our typical initialization is held down due to
the inclusion of a percentage of the previous forecast cycle, so
decided to go with the 00Z guidance consensus as the middle
ground. This makes me a bit higher than some of my neighbors,
especially to the south and east. We may still not have enough in
west Kentucky, if the snows linger as the 00Z ECMWF suggests. The
resultant snow accumulations are now 1-3", still well within the
Advisory levels.

Wind chills will drop to 10 below around KMVN at Midnight tonight
and then gradually spread south and east through daybreak. 15
below will be possible in many locations. Will be issuing a Wind
Chill Advisory for the area along and north of a line from
Perryville Missouri to Princeton Kentucky to Calhoun Kentucky from
midnight tonight through 11 AM Tuesday. Some of this area will be
lucky to see wind chills climb above zero in the afternoon, but
winds should diminish considerably Tuesday night which should keep
the wind chills below Advisory levels then.

Decent echoes are moving into our northwest counties at this time,
so here we go!

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Forecast confidence remains higher than average through much of the
long term given the continued good agreement among forecast models.

A moderating trend will continue through much of the period as the
center of high pressure over the Southeast Thursday morning shifts
slowly east and southerly flow develops on its westward side. In the
upper levels, the flow pattern over the nations mid section will
become less amplified through Friday. In fact, a split flow pattern
should keep any precipitation well north or south of the region
through Friday night. Models are in better agreement that the
compact upper low that a couple of earlier model runs were bringing
across the area Thursday night should remain north of the region.
High temperatures should manage to make it just above the freezing
mark on Thursday, then near 40 by Friday.

The warming trend should magnify into the weekend as southwesterly
upper level flow develops in response to an approaching storm system
over the Plains. With an increase in low level moisture, clouds
should be in abundance over the weekend. Substantial rain is not
expected until Sunday, but forecast soundings suggest the potential
for some very light rain or even drizzle on Saturday. Rain chances
peak Sunday with better moisture return ahead of the approaching low
and cold front. Fortunately, this precipitation event should be
mostly rain with temperatures forecast to top the 50 degree mark
both weekend days. Even better, temperatures should cool down only
to near normal early next week after the front passes. After the
Arctic blasts of late, we`ll take normal!

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1109 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light snow showers and flurries have persisted longer than
forecast. This area should depart, but the next round of snow will
move in by Monday morning into southern IL and progress southeast
through the day, ending up over west KY by Monday evening. As this
band moves through, expect MVFR cig and possibly IFR vsby
conditions due to snowfall. Winds will be SSE aob 10 kts for most
of the night, then veer from south, to west and then NNW Monday
into Monday evening sustained 8 to 12 kts with some 15 to 20 kt
gusts possible.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for
     ILZ075>078-080>094.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Tuesday
     for ILZ075>078-080>091.

MO...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MOZ076-
     086-087-100-107>111.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Tuesday
     for MOZ076.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
     tonight for MOZ112-114.

IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for INZ081-
     082-085>088.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Tuesday
     for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM CST Tuesday
     for KYZ007-010-013>016-018>020.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to midnight CST
     tonight for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RJP



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