Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271742

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1142 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Issued at 1142 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Have updated to slow the progress of rain eastward through the
area this afternoon.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Maps at 00z showed an expansive western U.S. low centered over NW
Utah and a ridge extending NE across the SE U.S. Broad SW flow
continued across our region with widespread precip just off to our
west. Will ramp up PoPs through the day, especially NW 1/2, not so
much SE toward KHOP. Still waiting on height falls to occur which
will eventually allow the mid level flow to veer to WSW. When this
happens by tonight, will see rains expand area wide. Surface front
will enter the area around 00z and then slow down, setting up
along the Ohio around 12z Sat. By 00z Sun the front should be from
about Mayfield to Madisonville.

In summary, periods of rain tonight through Sunday night with the
heaviest QPF tonight through the end of the day Saturday. NIL
thunder given lack of instability. No changes to the Flash Flood
Watch. Still think we are looking at minor, mainly non flash
flooding scenario. Typical slower response rises, with some
creeks, streams, ditches exceeding bankfull, and standing water
across some roads, and in low lying, poor drainage areas. Temps a
blend of MOS and base model output once again. In terms of actual
amounts. As expected, some of yesterday`s runs were likely too
high with amounts. The models have backed off slightly, more like
what the ECMWF had. Still 3-4+ inches in the Watch area with
generally 2-3 inches elsewhere, give or take.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 252 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Models show low pressure, centered over Kansas at 12z Monday, will
move into northeast Iowa/southeast Minnesota by 12z Tuesday. This
will lift a warm front across the PAH forecast area on Monday. Winds
will become southerly and temperatures will climb into the 50s area
wide.  Showers will continue with the best chances across eastern
portions of the PAH forecast area.  The associated cold front will
quickly follow, and will be draped across eastern portions of the
area by 12z Tuesday.  As the front starts moving across the area
Monday night, showers chances will start decreasing from the west,
with precipitation lingering only in our far eastern counties on

Winds will remain westerly behind the front into Tuesday night,
until the surface low finally moves into the Great Lakes.  This will
finally bring winds around to the north to northwest.  Temperatures
will remain near seasonal Tuesday into Tuesday night, then the north
to northwest winds will bring colder air into the region and
readings will drop to a little below seasonal readings.  High
pressure building to our west will keep us in northerly flow into

On Thursday, both GFS and ECMWF show an upper level trof moving
across the area.  ECMWF takes it farther south and keeps any
associated precipitation well southeast of our region, while GFS
does show some light QPF grazing our far southeast counties.  It
looks like we will stay dry but we could see an increase in clouds
in our eastern counties.


Issued at 1142 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

Rain is still expected to spread eastward and intensify through
the afternoon, but a bit slower than previously thought. It may be
after sunset before it reaches KOWB. Once the steadier rains set
in, conditions will begin to deteriorate. LIFR conditions are
expected by Saturday morning at all sites. A cold front will move
through KCGI, KEVV, KPAH through the evening hours, but there is
considerable evidence that it will hang up in the vicinity of KOWB
through the end of the period. South winds will gust up to near
20kts at all sites this afternoon, and would not be surprised to
see some gusts at least into the teens behind the front in the


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
     evening for ILZ080-084-088-092-093.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from 6 PM CST this evening through Saturday
     evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.



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