Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 151945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Looks as though the main weather story in the near term will lie
with high humidity and a modest increase in the likelihood of
scattered showers/thunderstorms, especially on Thursday. Assuming
we can manage at least partial sunshine in the afternoon hours,
heat indices may be running up close to 100 degrees with surface
dew points well into in the mid 70s at many locations. Again,
highest PWATs should remain to the north and south of our area
through Wednesday. A weak short wave aloft will be drifting
slowly northeast into the region tonight/early Wednesday. Thus
will leave chancy rain chances in forecast for that time frame.
However, a more defined surface boundary will be moving southeast
into the lower Ohio River Valley on Thursday, with some energy
aloft. Believe that this will offer the highest thunderstorm
chances, and may even manage to work up a few stronger ones later
in the day. The front will exit the region Thursday night, taking
the storm chances with it as drier air filters into the region
from the northwest.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

At the start of the period there are a couple of perturbations in the
generally flat flow across the northern tier of the eastern US. One
will be moving through our area early on Friday, bringing an end to the
precip across the area. A second is over the Dakotas and is expected
to move through our area Saturday afternoon bringing a chance of showers
and thunderstorm. Upper level ridging builds in on Sunday in the GFS
and ECMWF and continues through at least Tuesday. The GEFS ensemble
mean is not quite convinced of the ridging, thus the small chances
Sunday through Tuesday.

Special discussion for eclipse: Model trends continue to move toward
a drier day than originally thought. Isolated storms still possible
and it will be warm and humid. Number of GEFS members that are
producing rain continues to drop, now at 4 out of 12, so the odds are
getting better. Models want to have weakening showers and thunderstorms
across the southern sections during the morning then have them dissipate
by late morning. So, depending upon how quickly that dissipates and
any cirrus thunderstorm blow-off the cloud forecast is still a bit iffy.
Time-height cross sections from both the GFS and ECMWF have high RH values
over our area generally above 400 mb. Will it be thick cirrus or thin?
Difficult to tell right now, but we are watching it closely.


Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

Expect VFR cigs most locations, except for some 15k-25k ft cigs in
portions of western KY far southern MO this afternoon. Winds will
remain quite light to calm.




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