000
FXUS63 KPAH 262338
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
538 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Updated for the 00Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

The primary forecast challenge is the developing snow along and just
north of the CWA. Radar mosaic shows patches of snow with surface
obs indicating at times reduced vsbys. Sounding data reveals the
window of time the best moisture is available with the advecting
clipper wave energy will be late this pm into the evening
hours...and could squeeze a few hundredths qpf out along our
northern or eastern counties this evening. Have
collaborated/coordinated extensively with LMK to cover a potential
dusting of a tenth of an inch or two there, which we`ll highlight on
the HWO.

After 06z, the sounding data really shows the dry air wedging into
the -10 to -20c layer, effectively cutting off appreciable pcpn
chances. We`ll maintain some small chance in the farthest eastern
counties, as the system pushes out. After a coolish day tmrw, we
warm a little Wed., in advance of the next front that comes in Wed
night... offering our next chance of pcpn as it makes passage...a
small cold rain chance in the mid or upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Confidence is moderate at best in the medium range portion of this
forecast. A pair of weak disturbances will bring a small chance of
measurable rain to the region Thursday possibly into Thursday
evening. This should be of little consequence with the mild
temperatures expected. Surface high pressure will knock
temperatures back down to near normal levels for Friday.

The ECMWF, GFS and GEM bring a piece of the southern California
upper low eastward across the region Saturday into Sunday. The
precipitation is likely to hold off until Saturday night and
should push east of the area by Sunday afternoon. The model`s low-
level temperature forecasts are not in good agreement, so will be
going with a rain/snow mix in most locations. If the cooler ECMWF
is correct this could result in decent snow for the region, but
the GFS would be minimal. Will keep an eye on it, but nothing to
get too excited about at this time.

The northern stream re-asserts its dominance over the region for
Sunday and on into next week. The models are not in the best
agreement by the end of the period, but the general signal is for
cool and dry weather. Temperatures should drop a bit below
normal, but the potential is there for a more significant cold snap
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 538 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

Edge of cloud deck is currently between KCGI and KPAH. In
addition, light to moderate snow showers were occurring over
KEVV/KOWB with the showers just ending at KEVV. We will see light
snow showers for much of the evening in these same areas with KOWB
having the better chance. This snowfall may limit vsbys and lower
ceilings from time to time. Elsewhere, we will be dealing with
MFVR cigs for the most part. Cigs may rise up temporarily to VFR but
should remain MVFR for the entire period or be close to it. It is
currently SKC in KCGI but batch of clouds upstream should reach
the site by around 06Z or so and remain in place through the rest
of the TAF period. Winds will gradually become northwest by later
tonight and tomorrow morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$