Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280340

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1040 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Clearing skies will continue from west to east into early this
evening as drier air continues to filter into our region, with
mostly clear skies by late evening and overnight. Models show high
pressure over our region overnight will slide east by Friday.
Winds will shift back to the south, and we will have dry and
mostly clear conditions Friday into Saturday. We will see warmer
temperatures for Friday and even warmer yet for Saturday. Highs
Friday will reach the lower to middle 70s, with readings Saturday
in the upper 70s to lower 80s, which is around 15 degrees above
normal. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s, then readings
Friday night and Saturday night will only drop into the middle
50s to around 60 degrees. The approach of a weak, dry cold front
Saturday night will give us a bit of an increase in clouds.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Confidence is good through most of the extended but as usual
decreases around day 7.

The blended model as well as the deterministic models agree on yet
even a warmer and dry solution for most of the extended this would
be nearing high confidence level. In contrast after mid week next
the models start to bring a mid level trough from the west coast to
the mid Mississippi Valley. As usual it wants to put pops in late in
the forecast like it has been doing all week. So collaboration with
surrounding offices was resulted in a dry forecast for now. The
ECMWF has been the most reliable or driest model this week and
collaboration yielded a solution weighted heavily toward the ECMWF.
With that rationale its more likely to see measurable rain outside
the seven days more like Friday night Saturday scenario per latest
runs anyway.

For temperatures the models continue to warm with each run. We could
see 80s from the weekend well into next week. Cloud cover increasing
next week will likely pull us back into the 70s for highs...still
much above normal.


Issued at 1038 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Lower clouds over the KEVV tri-state area finally eroded. Variable
high clouds overnight. Near calm winds with time to yield some
fog. Friday, south winds 4-8 kts expected. Some low level moisture
may yield a little cu/strato-cu mainly southeast MO, far west KY,
southern IL. Mainly clear and calm Friday evening.



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