000
FXUS63 KPAH 221951
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
251 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Heavy rainfall potential is the main concern through Friday night.
So far, precipitation has been rather disorganized across our
region. Rainfall rates have been up to one-half inch per hour at
kowb, despite the rather benign appearance on radar. Precip
efficiency is extremely high due to very deep warm cloud depths
and precip water values just outside the 30-year climatology.

Rainfall totals so far have generally been close to the forecast,
which was similar to the short-range ensemble mean (SREF). The
forecast precip amounts will continue to stay close to the SREF
and the WPC guidance. The 12z NAM and GFS deterministic runs have
shied away from the excessive rainfall they were showing
Wednesday. The forecast will keep storm totals in the 2 to 4 inch
range across west KY, with 1 to 3 inches to the north and west.
Between one-half inch and one inch of this has already fallen in
parts of the Pennyrile region.

The caveat is the potential for locally enhanced rainfall in
persistent storms. So far, solid cloudcover has kept instability
and deep convection from forming. The Flash Flood Watch is in
effect mainly for the more organized convection expected in
association with the remnant center of Cindy. Most of the guidance
has trended further north with the center, and it should pass
rather close to west Kentucky Friday. Rainfall is forecast to
increase from southwest to northeast late tonight across the Lower
Ohio Valley and southeast Missouri. The heaviest rain will shift
east across the Pennyrile region on Friday.

A few brief tornadoes still cannot be ruled out as low-level wind
fields increase tonight and early Friday. However, instability
will be more limited during the period of strongest low-level
winds. Heavy rainfall continues to be the main concern.

The cold front will sweep southeast across the Lower Ohio Valley
late Friday, exiting the Pennyrile region of west KY Friday
evening. The front will bring the precip to an end, and clearing
is expected later Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Model consensus continues to show NW flow aloft across our area
through next Tuesday with a broad trof across the CONUS, and a ridge
parked over the SW U.S. High pressure is forecast to be across the
area through the period in some form. This pattern will result in
below normal temperatures and humidity levels for this time of year,
along with little or no precipitation. We will keep the forecast dry
for now. Will keep an eye on a system that may affect the area the
middle of next week, say late Wednesday or Thursday for our next
shot at showers and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Numerous showers developed across the region this morning. Cigs and
vsbys in the heavier showers are ifr. There will continue to be
scattered ifr conditions this afternoon in showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms. It appears there will be a lull in precip for much of
this evening, so vfr conditions are forecast. However, a renewed
push of more widespread activity is expected later tonight in se
Missouri and far west KY. At this time, there is considerable
variability among the models concerning the specific timing of
more organized rain and storms for Friday. Winds will be rather
strong aloft, but low level wind shear is not forecast at this
time.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for ILZ090-091-094.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for MOZ112-114.

IN...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for INZ087-088.

KY...Flash Flood Watch through Friday evening for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...MY