592
FXUS63 KPAH 121745
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms for the
  next several days.

- The strongest storms may pose an isolated to scattered threat
  of damaging winds, heavy rainfall will accompany any storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Numerous storms have developed recently over southeast Illinois
and they should move east northeast through the Evansville Tri
State in the few hours. Development farther south and west is
likely to hold off until later this afternoon. The strongest
storms will have the potential for damaging winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

We sit this morning firmly in a hot and soupy airmass with
current temps in the upper 70s and dewpoints well into the mid
70s. A light south wind has kicked up ahead of a very
weak/diffuse surface low over western Wisconsin. A line of
showers and isolated thunderstorms is slowly moving east along
I-70 and I-44 in Missouri and Illinois. There is very subtle
jet-level ascent that is departing to the northeast. This shower
activity will probably decrease further through the next couple
of hours as the lift departs and then the residual boundary
should fire back up in the late morning and afternoon. The
wave-train with very small upper level waves looks a little
mis-timed for peak heating today but 91-94 F with dewpoints in
the mid 70s and rich moisture through the lowest 100mb or so
should result in about 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE by the
afternoon. Shear is very weak and storms will likely struggle
for organization but water loaded downdrafts could pose a wind
threat and the strength of cold pools could help briefly upscale
a few features in the weak shear environment. PWAT values are at
2.0-2.1" amid the deep moisture so rainfall rates will likely
also be very high. There should be enough forward motion to
prevent significant issues but flash flooding will be possible
where storms stick around for any length of time.

GFS/ECMWF agree on bringing a little stronger and more focused
shortwave over the area Sunday afternoon. Another round of
wind/flood potential appears possible in the evening. More
afternoon pop-up type showers and storms then look possible each
day for the foreseeable future. An increase in mid and upper
ridging by Wednesday or Thursday may limit coverage somewhat but
most all guidance still spits a little something out in the
afternoon and early evening. We will be approaching heat
advisory by the end of the week but the current forecast falls a
little short although I wouldn`t be shocked for it to warm up a
little given the upper level heights progged.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Southwest winds may gust to around 15kts at times this
afternoon. TSRA are likely to impact KEVV and KOWB through 21Z.
Elsewhere, confidence in the coverage of convection is moderate
at best, so stuck with Prob30s through 23Z or 00Z. Strong winds
in excess of 40 mph are possible with the stronger storms, along
with torrential rain. Should be dry tonight, and especially in
locations that get significant rain today, fog development will
be a possibility overnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...DRS