000
FXUS63 KPAH 100840
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
340 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

All 12Z models agree that it will be mostly clear, breezy and
increasingly warmer through Tuesday. High pressure is expected to
slip south of the area, as pressures lower in response to a low
amplitude storm system moving east southeast just north of the
Great Lakes tonight and Monday. The flow aloft will gradually
transition from northwest to nearly zonal through Tuesday.

Southwest winds will increase significantly today in response to a
tightening pressure gradient. Low pressure will then develop and
move eastward through the southern/central Plains on Tuesday as a
northern branch H50 trof digs se into the northern Rockies. The
approach of this surface low will result in a tightening of the
gradient once again by Tuesday afternoon. Will stick close to a
MAV/MET/ECS blend in respect to temperatures through Tue. Highs in
the lower to mid 60s today will likely be replaces with upper 60s
to lower 70s Tue afternoon.

High chances of rain enter the picture Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning as the aforementioned surface low tracks
east-northeast into the Ohio Valley. Enuf elevated instability
should become established along/ahead of the low path to support
isolated thunderstorms, esp Wed evening. Sharply colder air will
rush in behind the surface low on Wed. Brisk northwest winds and
cold air advection will likely result in temps in the 30s and 40s
Wed afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

We will start out the extended period in northwest flow aloft. The
flow quickly transitions to zonal flow by Friday morning...as a weak
disturbance moves into the southern Rockies. This disturbance
weakens even further as it moves east toward our area. The ECMWF is
much quicker in dissipating this system, as the GFS generates a good
deal of moisture and some minor QPF on Friday night.

The weekend gets a little messier as models differ on the details. A
system moves southeast out of the northern Plains on Saturday and is
progged to impact our area over the weekend. The ECMWF indicates the
possibility of precipitation on Saturday night into Sunday. The GFS
is much slower with the progression with this system and the system
splits into two different systems by 12Z Sunday. The new 00Z ECMWF
now mimicks the GFS. This leaves our area dry through Sunday. The
GFS indicates that dry weather will even continue into Sunday night
as the main trough comes through with little fanfare. However, the
ECMWF is slower to bring the trough through and hints at some QPF
Sunday night. Will maintain slight chance pops until models can
get into better agreement with what will happen with this weekend
system. Consensus is to keep highs in the 50s/60s.

As far as temperatures, we should see temperatures increase from
Thursday into Friday as the upper pattern becomes more zonal. In
fact, highs on Friday could reach back near 60 degrees again.
Temperatures over the weekend will be a little tricky depending on
the evolution of the upper system to our northwest along with any
cloudiness/precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2014

With the exception of MVFR vsbys at KCGI/KPAH between 09-13Z, VFR
conditions expected at all sites through the period. Southwest
winds aob 5 knots expected through 15-16Z, pick up to around
10-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, then back to aob 10 knots
after 00Z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP