Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 082346
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
546 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Cp based arctic high pressure at the surface will sweep its
ridgeline across the Mississippi river valley through Friday.
Trajectories and modified soundings/forecasts suggest High temps
tmrw struggling toward the freezing mark, after FA-wide teens
tonight.

While the airmass undergoes some modification by Saturday
morning, it may offer the best synoptic night-time cooling Fri
night...with the surface High pressure centering over the
Commonwealth and Tennessee river valley by 12Z Saturday. So
another middle-upper teens start is anticipated, with temps maybe
getting above freezing but staying largely in the 30s even
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

There are two main weather systems to watch in the long term. The
first system will track northeast from the southern Plains across
Missouri and Illinois on Sunday night. The models have trended
considerably slower with this system, and Saturday night is now
forecast to remain dry for nearly the entire forecast area.

Precipitation will spread northeast across our region on Sunday
associated with a strengthening southerly low level jet. The models
are in good agreement that 850 mb temps will rise above freezing
well before precip arrives. A shallow layer of cold air near the
surface will be more difficult to scour out. The 12z nam keeps
surface temps just barely above freezing during the morning. The
forecast will include pockets of freezing rain very early in the
day, mainly in the low spots of the Missouri Ozark foothills.
However, the brevity of the event if it occurs should negate any
real impacts. Highs should eventually reach the lower 40s.

The trailing cold front will sweep southeast across our region on
Monday morning. Some light rain may linger early in the day, mainly
across western Kentucky. This will be followed by partial clearing.
The models have trended slower and weaker with the front. Therefore,
highs Monday are forecast to range from 45 to 50 despite weak
northerly flow.

The main story for later next week is another arctic cold front.
There continues to be considerable model variability as to how cold
it will be. The ecmwf 850 mb temps have been especially erratic.
Looking at the past few runs of the ecmwf ensemble mean, the core of
the coldest temps is likely to pass north of the Lower Ohio Valley.
Even so, this looks to be at least as cold as the air mass arriving
today and Friday. In addition, a weak 500 mb impulse is forecast to
interact with the arctic front Tuesday night. This is primarily
shown by the 12z gfs ensemble mean, which expands precip over
western Kentucky behind the front. Will carry a small chance of snow
Tuesday night, mainly south and east of the Ohio River.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 546 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

A northwesterly breeze below 10 knots will persist under clear to
mostly clear skies for the next 24 hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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