Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290826
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OVER TIME...POPS RAMP UP SLOWLY/BUT SURELY AS OPEN SWLYS CONTINUE
TO MOISTEN THE COLUMN IN FULL. WHEN MEAN NRN STREAM VORT MAX/UPPER
TROF DIVES INTO GREAT LAKES FROM CANADIAN INTERIOR PROVINCES...IT
WILL DRIVE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT INTO/THRU MID MS VALLEY. AS ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE WETTEST DAY IN SHORT
TERM AS THE FRONT DIVES TO ALONG/AROUND ABOUT THE OHIO RIVER BY
00Z SUNDAY.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE DEALING WITH A SLOWLY DEPARTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS PUSH THE FRONT RIGHT
ON THROUGH THE AREA AND INTO THE GULF STATES. AS SUCH...MOST
MODELS ARE DRIER WITH QPF AMOUNTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL
REDUCE POPS CONSIDERABLY...ESP OVER OUR N/W COUNTIES. IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...MAY NEED TO REDUCE MORE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH AREAS WITH
TIME. WILL ALSO REMOVE THUNDER RISK AT THIS TIME FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE COOLER 60S AND 70S
BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

AS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NNERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND HIGHER SFC PRESSURES...MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD OUT OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHATEVER PCPN CHANCE EXISTS MON SHOULD TAPER OFF
EVEN MORE AFTER SUNSET. EVEN TSTM CHANCES APPEAR VERY LIMITED MON
DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING MID LEVEL RIDGING. THIS
SHOULD BE TRUE THROUGH MID WEEK...AS THE MED RANGE MODELS SEEM TO BE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS DEPICTING AN EXPANDING
MID LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND A DIGGING WRN TROF.

AN EXCEPTION TO THE ERN RIDGING WILL BE A WEAK MID LEVEL LOW WHICH
THE MED RANGE MODELS...WITH LESS CERTAINTY/CONSISTENCY WITH
TIME...SHOW CUTTING OFF SOMEWHERE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH/FL BY MID WEEK
ON AT LEAST. BY WED...LOW LEVEL WINDS IN OUR REGION ARE PROGGED TO
RETURN TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL TEND TO INCREASE LOWER TROP
INSTABILITY...AND THE WEAK LOW MAY EVENTUALLY CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE INTO THE PAH FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH
LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SOURCE REGION BEING THE ATLANTIC. NOT
ALL MODELS HAVE THIS SOLUTION HOWEVER. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
FORCING MECHANISM...AN INCREASING DIURNAL SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS WAS INDICATED IN THE INITIALIZATION BLEND THROUGH DAY 7 (THU).
THIS SEEMED LIKE A REASONABLE FORECAST...WITH POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40
MID WEEK ON.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
VFR CIGS AND VCTS POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z AND 15Z RESPECTIVELY AS A
WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINS TO EMERGE FROM THE PLAINS. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCES FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE TSRA IN A
FM GROUP FOR SO MANY HOURS...SO JUST DECIDED TO GO WITH A VCTS FOR
NOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 10 KNOTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...JP


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