


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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817 FXUS63 KPAH 290642 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 142 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through Monday. Torrential downpours, lightning, and gusty winds will be possible. - Independence Day still looks seasonal with highs in the lower 90s and a 20% chance for a shower or storm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 With Pwat`s running AOA 2", locally heavy downpours will remain the primary storm hazard today. While model generated average qpf amounts are not necessarily concerning, localized amounts may be, esp if they fall over areas that have already received a thorough saturation from yesterday`s convection. With an H8 ridge of theta-E setting up in that vicinity, potentially aggravating the heavy rain/localized flooding potential, we continue our Flood Watch in the Ozarks per collaborative efforts and potential for earlier convection there, repeating over grounds that have received several inches of rainfall recently. After today, our eyes turn to the cold front to our north that drops down and makes its approach Monday. Pops again spike, esp during the day, and the potential for localized heavy rainfall/flooding remains. With the front`s entry and the upper support driving it, we`ll see some damaging wind potential enter the forecast picture with a 5% Marginal risk a stronger storm may produce such. Fropa may take/linger pops thru Tuesday before drying them out. Dew points fall back into the 60s and highs in the 80s for the mid week immediately thereafter, before heights begin to rise again heading into the weekend. Temps respond by returning to the 90s and dew points follow to the 70s again, but that`s not unusual for this time of year. In response to the building heat/humidity, small/diurnally driven instability pops return then too. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 140 AM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 More convection is expected today, not dissimilar to yesterday. Other than pre dawn fog potential, the storms offer the best chance of flight restrictions. Said restrictions will be with the more intense storms and should be brief but exist nonetheless and should definitely be included in flight planning as the probability of such remains high. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MOZ107-108. IN...None. KY...None. && $$