Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221908

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
208 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

High pressure sliding east across the region will give us dry
conditions and winds shifting to the south. The warm up will
continue Monday and Tuesday with highs in the lower 80s. Lows
tonight and Monday night will be in the middle 50s to around 60
degrees, and Tuesday night in the lower to middle 60s.

Models show an upper level wave moving across the area Tuesday
into Tuesday night. GFS/Canadian bring some precip into our far
west/northwest counties as early as 12z Tuesday, while the ECMWF
is a bit slower. ECMWF/Canadian keep precip light and scattered
at best through 12z Wednesday, while GFS shows more significant
QPF. Prefer the less aggressive ECMWF/Canadian solutions. Went
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms in our far west
counties Monday night, with scattered showers and storms slowly
spreading east Tuesday into Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Few changes to the long term. Unsettled SW H5 flow will persist
while we remain warm sector. This will result in on and off chances
of convection through the period. Confidence in timing and coverage
are still in question given the lack of a frontal presence, and lack
of significant features aloft. Plenty of moisture means any storms
could produce locally heavy rain, perhaps locally gusty winds. You
will see several periods in the forecast with a 40-50 percent chance
of rain. However it will not rain the entire time. There will be
breaks. Otherwise warmer than normal temperatures with more summer
like humidity. Continue to favor a MOS/Ensemble MOS blend for


Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sun May 22 2016

Through Monday morning, P6SM, SKC, light winds.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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