Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200746

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Warm sector souping up is ongoing, as lower 70s surface TD`s punch
into heart of FA from southwest, and WAA convection has developed
along its lead edge.

Later today, will see surface cold front approach from the west.
Front will encounter plentiful moisture in the profile, with
surface based TDs in the lower 70s as aforementioned. Extent of
instability will depend upon how much cloud break up/daytime
heating can occur, but front`s timing of passage thru pm hours is
optimal. All models continue to show numerous showers/storms
breaking out along/ahead of the boundary from the pm hours into
the early evening hours. Marginal risk of svr associated with
front for mainly downburst/wind potential in bow segments, with
ltg/heavy rain the other primary hazards.

The front makes its passage by late evening, and convection winds
down from west to east. Should ultimately see a nice clear out,
with height falls and surface high pressure producing a
cooler/drier and very pleasant end to the weekend and start to the
work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Low to medium confidence in the extended.

Models have moved up the timing a great deal from just a few days
back. However they are in agreement with at least slight chances
moving into the Ozark foothills by Tuesday afternoon. Albeit nothing
impressive. We do start to see weak surface based instability with
LI`s going to negative 3 Tuesday afternoon and MU CAPEs under 1k
j/kg/2. There is slight instability aloft with K index values near
30c and Showalters slightly negative. Again with PWATs near 2" heavy
rain will be the main threat. Then after the loss of heating expect
convection to cease. Expect similar on Wednesday and Wednesday
night. However Thursday into Friday a cold front will bearing down on
the region. However the long wave trough is now holding off or a
little slower with its approach. Thus not sure how much support the
surface front will have available aloft to push through the region.
But for now it appears at least to push into TN. Considering the
weak front severe weather is not anticipated at this time. In
contrast with high dew points and PWATs ranging from 1.5" to 2"
heavy rainfall will be the main threat. The instability would not
support the widespread heavy rain we have recently encountered.
Temperatures will be near normal through the extended.


Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Convection affecting KCGI/KPAH at this writing will wind down
shortly as warm front lifts across area. Temporary IFR
restrictions associated with convective elements possible, and
after its clear out, pre dawn fog/low cloud is possible as well.
Main story thereafter is cold front approach/passage during the
afternoon/evening hours Saturday. Shra/tsra possible mainly after
20z at all sites, but stray shra/tsra possible before 20z. MVFR
conditions likely with convection, with isolated stronger storms
taking TAF sites into IFR conditions.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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