Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 261806
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
106 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1034 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING THIS MORNING...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OR DRY LINE BOUNDARY IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION AND RUNS FROM NEAR KMVN TO KPAH AT 1530Z. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL MOST LIKELY MARK THE BACK EDGE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF IT
THROUGH OUR ENTIRE AREA...DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED IF NOT
COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN UNTIL IT PASSES OUT OF OUR AREA. TRIED TO
RE-WORK HOURLY POP TRENDS...AND KEEP THEM BELOW LIKELY LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOULD BE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED DAY COMING UP AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
H50 SHORT WAVE EJECTS NE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROF. ONE OF THE
BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IF DECENT
HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE...SHOULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN STORM RISK IN BOWING SEGMENTS...SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

00Z GFS DOES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER ON WED OR WED EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE AT LEAST CHC
POPS IN FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THAT TIME FRAME AS
WELL. THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN MORE AS WE HEAD INTO THU TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL COME
INCREASING SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM HUMID WEEK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN
SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE WEEKEND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE BLENDED MODELS...ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WEAK TO
COMPLETE FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THUS THE
EXTENDED INIT IS SLOW TO SHOW A TRUE WIND SHIFT IF ANY AT ALL. IN
CONTRAST THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE WITHIN SIX HOURS OF EACH OTHER
CONCERNING THE WIND SHIFT. ITS DEFINITELY ODD BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
THE WIND SHIFT A GOOD SIX HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS
USUALLY THE OPPOSITE WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER MODEL WITH
SYSTEMS TYPICALLY. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A FROPA SUNDAY WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THEY BOTH AGREE THE FRONT
WILL ACTUALLY COME THROUGH WHICH HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WITH CAPES
AROUND CAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 200 J/KG/2 OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 2000
J/KG/2 IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT AT LEAST DAILY
CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAYBE SOME BREAKS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED NON SEVERE...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG OR SEVERE WILL
DEFINITELY BE WITH THE FROPA SUNDAY.

TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND WHEN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LOWER THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE SOMEWHAT AND OF COURSE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WE
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR AS SHOWERS EXIT
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NEAR OWB. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. S WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS TODAY...DECREASING THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KTS OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THE AM.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-
     087-100-107>112-114.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BP2
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...BP2|


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