567
FXUS63 KPAH 102048
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
348 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog will be possible tonight into early Friday morning
  with locally dense fog possible.

- Small chances (10-25%) of thunderstorms are forecast early
  this evening and again Friday afternoon.

- Thunderstorm chances increase this weekend into next week,
  with a roughly 40-60% each day. The greatest coverage will
  occur during the heat of the afternoon hours.

- Typical summertime heat and humidity is forecast through next
  week, though heat index values will climb to around 100
  degrees Friday and Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

After a few isolated showers/storms dissipate near toward sunset,
expect clear skies overnight into Friday morning with the light
winds in place. This will set the stage for patchy fog overnight
with locally dense fog possible once again.

Deep-layer moisture is expected to be fairly limited across the Quad
State for Thursday and Friday afternoon, which will help to limit
the spatial coverage of shower and storm activity. It can`t be
totally ruled out with daytime heating, but chances look to be
closer to 15-20% during the heating of the day and likely limited to
any lingering boundaries across the area. High temperatures will
warm into the low 90s with more sunshine around.

A deeper trough axis and frontal boundary is progged to push through
the midwest/Quad State region Friday night into Saturday, bringing a
better chance (40-60%) of more widespread coverage in shower and
thunderstorms activity. Very little shear is expected through this
time period, so storm activity should remain more pulsey. A few
strong storms are possible, but the main threats will be very heavy
rainfall from slow moving storms. PWAT values are expected to be
close to 2 inches, again, pointing toward the very heavy
rainfall/downpour potential. Localized flooding/flash flooding are
possible. Temperatures will be in the low 90s and it will feel more
uncomfortable outdoors with increasing moisture/humidity levels.
Heat index values will be pushing close to 100 degrees.

Upper level ridging is set to build gradually northward toward the
Quad State from the southeast states; however, there remain some
uncertainty on how far north it lifts. Several details still need to
be ironed out, but it is looking like several disturbance will pass
through the area allowing for increased chances for thunderstorm
activity. This will largely be during the afternoon; however, a lot
of this will also be determined on the exact timing and location of
each wave that passes through the area. If the activity is more
widespread, it could help to keep temperatures down a bit, but it is
still looking pretty warm (upper 80s to low 90s).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 346 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Diurnal cu will disperse early, leaving another moclear
sky/light wind environment conducive to patchy fog development
overnight. Other than any pre dawn restrictions related to that,
we`ll resume a Visual Flight Rules forecast tmrw with similarly
leveled lower VFR bases FEW-SCT diurnally driven again.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$