Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 082249

549 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Issued at 545 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

The main event in the short term will be Thu night/Fri. Clouds
will be on the increase across the region tonight. A significant,
fast- moving, mid level shrtwv will sweep through the ern half of
the CONUS on Fri and Sat, bringing a sfc cold front through the
PAH forecast area early Fri.

It appears that atmospheric moisture available for lift will be
limited in the low levels, reducing the likelihood of deep moist
convection, and therefore coverage and intensity of showers. Some
lightning strikes are still possible, primarily in the morning.
The best PoPs (chance) will be in the srn half of our region,
where the highest QPF will be (up to a quarter inch). However, we
will hold onto likely PoPs in the afternoon for a small part of
the srn Pennyrile Region of KY, diminishing rapidly by early
evening. Meanwhile, parts of swrn IL may not receive any rainfall
with this event.

Rapid clearing will occur from the west Fri night, ushering in a
cooler drier air mass for the weekend. Lows will be in the upper
half of the 40s, with highs around 70 on Sat.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

Average confidence with the extended forecast period, starting on

The main weather makers are on Monday, then again next Friday (just
beyond this forecast package). The medium range ECMWF, Canadian, and
GFS are all posting some light QPF with the frontal passage on
Monday, mainly from mid-level moisture. Left a token mention of
light precipitation over part of the WFO PAH forecast are in
conjunction with the blended model guidance initialization, but it
may not amount to more than a few sprinkles.

The flow through the period will shift from a sharp northwest flow
at the beginning of the week to zonal flow at the end.  If you
consider the closed low over the Southwest U.S./Northern Mexico,
this feature is projected to retrograde west off the California
coast, then become reabsorbed in the zonal flow and move back across
the nation, bringing the next chance for rain late next week.

Given the mixed flow in the planetary boundary layer through the
period, a diurnal range of temperatures between 20-23 degrees will
be common, but within normal range for this time of year. The only
exception will be immediately after the frontal passage on Monday.


Issued at 545 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2015

A cold front will approach and make passage late tonight-early
tmrw. Cigs will develop ahead/along and linger behind front.
Mostly mid and high clouds are expected, but time-height cross
sections suggest a lower vfr deck is possible, so we included it
in the post frontal terminal conditions for tmrw. Winds will shift
to the north with fropa and average around 10 kts. Light showers
may accompany the front`s passage but shouldn`t offer much
restriction to vsbys.



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