000
FXUS63 KPAH 232327
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
627 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW CLOUDS AND EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING SSE IN ASSOC WITH A SFC AND MID LEVEL TROF. BASED ON
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM...MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE CLOUDS TO
DECREASE OR MOVE ON TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA AND RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE DAY FAR NW AND WEST SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. THE CHANCE
WILL SPREAD SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT FOR NOW...STILL LOW CHANCE AS
THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

GEM WAS TRENDING TOWARD THE ECMWF YESTERDAY...AND NOW TODAY LOOKS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST ECMWF...BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY 00Z MONDAY.  GFS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH ITS SOLUTION
OF KEEPING THE COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA.  WITH THE
GEM AND ECMWF FALLING INTO DECENT AGREEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD THEIR
SOLUTIONS.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE ECMWF AND GEM IS GEM SHOWS
PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.  ECMWF AMOUNTS LOOK MORE REASONABLE IF THE FRONT DOES MAKE
IT THIS FAR SOUTH.  WENT WITH POPS IN THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW
BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY DISREGARD.  ALL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.  THIS
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY MIDWEEK.

THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ALSO MAKE TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING...WITH
THE MEX GUIDANCE MUCH WARMER THAN THE ECE DUE TO THE GFS KEEPING THE
FRONT NORTH OF OUR REGION.  DUE TO THE DISCREPANCIES...STAYED CLOSE
TO THE ALL BLEND VALUES WHICH ARE A GOOD COMPROMISE OF THE
GUIDANCE.  ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MID WEEK WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE KEVV AREA WITH A BROKEN
LINE OF SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. IT SHOULD BE THROUGH KEVV BY
00Z...BUT WILL IMPACT KOWB DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY EVEN VISIBILITIES WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NEAR DUE NORTH
AND GUST INTO THE 20KTS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR
CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AT KEVV AND
KOWB...BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER WEST AT KCGI AND KPAH...A LOW VFR CEILING IS EXPECTED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING...WITH CLEARING FOLLOWING BY 06Z. THE
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO IMPACT THE WESTERN SITES FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING...BEFORE DYING DOWN TO 5KTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

A NORTHEAST WIND JUST UNDER 10KTS IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES FROM
MID MORNING ON FRIDAY. A FEW CU CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT SKC IS
MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS