965
FXUS63 KPAH 250243
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
943 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through Friday for daily peak
  heat index values of 100 to 107. The prolonged heat wave may
  continue into the weekend.

- Daily isolated chances of showers and storms during peak
  heating will provide brief and limited relief from the heat
  wave. Locally torrential downpours and lightning are possible.

- True relief from the heat wave still looks to arrive early to
  mid next week along with a greater risk of showers and
  thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

A broad 597 dam ridge is stretched from the lower Ohio Valley
eastward to the Mid-Atantic this afternoon. On the western periphery
of the ridge, isolated convection has bubbled up (across SEMO, S IL,
and far W KY). The ridge will slowly break down through the end of
the week and into the weekend. As it does so, diurnal convection
will likely continue each day, starting late morning and ending by
early evening. The ridge remains strong enough through Friday, so
likely will continue with isolated to widely scattered convection
through then. Prospects for rain increase some over the weekend as
low level moisture transport from the Gulf increases and the ridge
gradually weakens. Pwats around 2" will allow some locally heavy
downpours.

No changes to the ongoing Heat Advisory. It may need to be extended
through Sunday, possibly even Monday, but confidence isn`t high
enough at this time, due to convective chances being higher during
that time period. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s combined
with high humidity (dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) will result in
heat index readings above 100 (and locally above 105) through at
least Friday. Minimal relief is expected overnight with lows
primarily holding in the mid 70s most nights.

True relief from the heat does appear to be on the horizon by
Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Models indicate a front making
passage early in the week, which should allow highs to fall back
into the 80s by mid week along with more tolerable humidity levels
(dewpoints below 70 degrees).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 943 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

Fog development is still expected during the overnight hours,
mainly with MVFR restrictions, but TEMPO IFR conditions have
been added to the OWB and PAH forecasts. Fog will quickly
mix away by 13z, and isolated to scattered airmass
thunderstorms will develop again after 17z. Convective activity
will diminish by 23-24z. Calm winds overnight will pick up from
the SW at 4-7 kts through the afternoon outside of thunderstorm
activity, becoming light and variable again after 24z.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /8 PM EDT/ Friday for INZ081-082-
     085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DWS
DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION...DWS