000
FXUS63 KPAH 280547
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday
night.

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Gradual clearing continues tonight, but MVFR ceilings remain
centered from southwest Indiana into the Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky. Expect the slow clearing trend to continue overnight, with
clearing at KEVV and KOWB anticipated before sunrise. Once skies
clear, VFR conditions should prevail through the remainder of the
forecast period with an increase in high clouds on Wednesday. As
high pressure shifts east of the area, light northeast to east winds
tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to near 10 knots
by Wednesday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$