Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 240653
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1253 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

Strong warm air advection with increasing wind fields out of the
south today will make possible scattered shower activity. The
atmos remains capped for the most part, but as the front draws
into the area at/near peak heating, it will be encountering a
ribbon of surface dew points into the mid/upr 50s arcing across
the eastern third of the FA, when MU CAPES in the 0-1KM layer
flirt toward 1K J/KG. SLGT Risk Svr remains outlooked for our
north and east during this time frame, effectively 21z-03z and
perhaps mostly the first half of that window. Strong wind fields
and shear make damaging winds the primary svr wx threat/hazard.
Timing of and overall columnar moisture appears to be the primary
limiting factor to deeper convection, with better chances just off
to our north and east.

Another record or near record breaking day is possible with regard
to temperatures, as highs top out in the 70s again ahead of the
front.

Today`s Records:
PAH... 73 in 2000 (forecast high of 74).
EVV... 72 in 2000 (forecast high of 74).
CGI... 73 in 2000 (forecast high of 73).
We could see upper 70s in parts of our south/east, esp near HOP.

After fropa, we`ll see pops diminish by 03Z, and gone by 06Z, with
colder/drier air coming in thereafter. Saturday highs are getting
colder each run and will be some 30F degrees cooler than Friday.
Similarly, Lows in the 20s Saturday night will remind us it is
still February.

Fire danger is heightened this afternoon over the Missouri Ozarks,
where gusty winds in the 20s mph will combine with relative
humidity minimums in the 30s percentile. Fire danger is more
widespread across the area Saturday afternoon, as winds average in
the teens mph and relative humidity values drop into the 30s
percentile across the entire area.

After High pressure sweeps across the Mid South Saturday, and sets
off to the east, return flow southerlies will re-establish Sunday.
This will generate some warm air advection rain chances returning
to the forecast late Sunday into Sunday night. At this writing,
it appears boundary layer temps remain warm enough to keep the
pcpn entirely liquid over our FA, although we wouldn`t be shocked
if some onset sleet or graupel occurred, particularly for northern
areas.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Model discontinuity continues to hamper confidence next week.

By Sunday the surface high will have moved east of the area allowing
a southerly flow at the surface to return. This will allow for a
warming trend to return. In fact we should well above normal at
least through the first half of next week. It appears a surface low
will develop along the front range of the CO rockies and progress
eastward into our region Sunday night. The GFS run is much more
aggressive than most other models with a system Sunday evening. The
slightly more stable ECMWF is much less intense with substantially
less available moisture. This is possibly because of the more zonal
flow or slightly southwest flow aloft. While the GFS brings in a
significant short wave. Thus the more qpf that it generates compared
to other models. The timing is not that much of spread but intensity
is in much disarray among the models. Now after this system is where
the models diverge the most. Another system approaches for mid week
bringing a stronger cold front through late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. With this one the ECMWF is stronger than the GFS which is
the exact opposite of the Sunday night system. So confidence really
decreases with this system with little continuity and run to run flip
flops of the models solutions. However there is agreement of a cold
front moving through with rain chances. Would prefer to stay away
from likely but that will depend on the forecast builder output and
collaboration.  By Thursday models agree high pressure will return
to the area with cooler temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1253 AM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

South winds will average near/in the teens kts this morning with
gusts into the 20s kts at times, then increase as the gradient
tightens during the front`s approach today. While VFR CIGS and
VSBYS are anticipated, temporary restrictions might be possible
along/ahead of the front in late pm/early evening convection.
After fropa, winds will shift to the northwest, with all pcpn
effectively ended by midnight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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