000
FXUS63 KPAH 042131
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
330 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Main forecast issue this time period lies with max temp
forecasting each day. High pressure will scoot east t across the
upper Great Lakes region Wednesday, keeping things quite weather
wise during the Wed/Thu time frame. A low pressure system will
drop se from the Southern Plains into the northern Gulf Coast
Wednesday night and Thursday, but should stay too far south to
affect our forecast area.

Big differences MOS temp forecasts the next couple of days, with
the GFS/NAM still much colder than the EC. GFS has not done well
(cold bias) with past snow cover episodes, and has been too cold
yesterday and today. Thus, Incorporated more of the warmer EC,
which takes PAH up to or above 40 Wednesday and Thursday. This,
along with higher sun angles, should aid help melt snow/ice cover
still on many roadways. Could result in refreezing to black ice at
night however, as temps fall back into the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

The extended period will start out under ridging aloft and a weak
sfc pressure gradient for the PAH forecast area. Clouds will be on
the increase by the first half of the weekend as a cold front
approaches from the nw. This feature will be part of a nrn stream
mid level shrtwv moving esewd through the Midwest. The cold front
should be through most of our region by Sat evening, and will be a
source of lift for mostly post-frontal rainfall early. Later Sat
night, a transition to light snow is possible over most of the
region due to a cooling atmospheric column and sfc temps dipping to,
or below, freezing. Minimal PoPs/QPF means minimal, if any impacts.
The med range model solutions begin to diverge during the latter
half of the weekend, but at this time, the best guess is that a srn
stream semi-cutoff low pressure system will generate pcpn just to
the south of the PAH forecast area.

Mon night/Tue, the initialization blend yielded robust chance PoPs
for this period, probably brought on by the 00Z ECMWF solution,
which had the srn stream low pressure system moving over the top of
our area. The 12Z ECMWF did not show this, and the GFS/ECMWF
ensemble means did not reflect it. So, just in case more members may
go back to a similar scenario, slight chance PoPs were left in the
forecast for this time period. Adjustments to temps and dewpoints
were made accordingly.

Temps were a challenge in this extended period, with the GFS
substantially colder than the ECMWF, as it has been in the short
term. We went mostly with the initialization blend for temps since
it seemed to be a reasonable compromise. Temps will be relatively
warm, and at or above average by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2014

Arctic high pressure moving across the northeast U.S. will bring
light winds and generally clear conditions through the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...MEFFERT