Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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615
FXUS63 KPAH 082330
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
530 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Cyclonic flow snow showers to persist into evening before
diminishing. May pick up again late tonight into tmrw as
additional energy pinwheels the trof. Total qpf a few hundredths
each round means maybe half inch to inch amounts in the north
and/or east especially.

Ky DOT sites show pavement temps in 40s even to OH river. Most of
todays has melted, but some in far northeast (Evv area, Fort
Branch) has accumulated one half inch or so in grassy areas, and
some slick spots on area roadways occurring in isolated reports
again, mainly northeast (southwest Indiana area), as temps there
now below freezing. Will continue to hit hard upon all this in
SPS, per collab with IND/LMK (and OHX).

As temps fall below freezing FA wide this evening, that`s where
we`ll stay for the remainder of the short term forecast as arctic
plunge strengthens its grip. Wind chills tonight around 10 and
tmrw night around zero (north) to single digits (south).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 309 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

By 12Z Thursday, sfc high pressure will continue to build into our
area. We should gain a few degrees from Wednesday on highs, as the
deep upper low and the core of the coldest air slowly moves east.
However, we still probably won`t see temperatures above freezing in
our northeast (southern IL/southwest IN/adjacent parts of west KY).

While we might see temperatures try to warm up a bit on Friday, it
will be short lived, if it even happens at all. Another strong upper
low dives south or southeast out of Hudson Bay and brings more cold
air toward our region. Models differ on the movement of this upper
low, and hence, where exactly the coldest air will end up. But, even
if we gain a few degrees of warmth on Friday, it appears the cold
air will be infiltrating the area again by Friday night into
Saturday. Highs on Saturday will be similar to what we will see on
Wednesday, with readings not getting out of the 20s in most places
with SEMO maybe seeing low 30s for highs.

Over the last few days, there has been concern that there may be a
period or two that needs POPS introduced. Until now, there has not
been too great a signal to really worry about it. However, models do
try to generate some QPF with the progression of the secondly cold
air mass, mainly on Friday and/or Friday night. But it will depend
on how the upper low tracks. The ECMWF has the track more southerly,
which gives us a better chance, while the latest GFS tracks the
upper low more southeasterly which places any QPF to our east. This
is not something models are going to have a great handle on this far
out, but decided to add slight chance POPS in the northeastern
counties for now for some light snow (rain south toward TN border).

Strong sfc high pressure will build into the area Saturday night
into Sunday, which will mean another very cold night, as the high
has a chance to be centered over all or part of the area by 12Z
Sunday. Models continue to show a system moving into the region
Sunday night into Monday bringing a chance for precipitation which
be some light snow and/or rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 529 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

For the 00z February 9th WFO PAH TAF issuance, kept KCGI/KPAH in
VFR category. There may be transient snow showers for the
aforementioned TAF sites. but they should remain at or above MVFR
levels and last less than an hour.

For KEVV/KOWB it will be more difficult to pin down chance for
unrestricted visibilities and ceilings in the deeper cyclonic
flow, so kept upper MVFR and brief IFR visibilities, along with
intermittent MVFR ceilings for highest probabilities for reduction
of ceilings and visibilities due to the snow.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith



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