000
FXUS63 KPAH 121800
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES/DIMINISHING WINDS AND GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE 1 DAY REMOVED POST COLD FROPA AIRMASS.
WITH 12Z MODELS STILL CALLING FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE
30S EAST OF THE SEMO OZARKS...WENT AHEAD AFT COLLAB WITH ALL ERN/SRN
OFFICES WANTING HEADLINES AND FOLLOWED SUITE WITH THEM.

BEYOND THAT...THE NEAR TERM WEATHER IS BENIGN/TRANQUIL. WARM
ADVECTION KICKS IN AND HEIGHTS BUILD WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY. SHOULD SEE ROBUST WARMUP TOWARD/THRU 70S MONDAY AND BACK TO
80S BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND
INCREASINGLY HUMID AIR THROUGH THE WEEK. THE 500 MB MEAN RIDGE
POSITION WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH
OF THE PERIOD DUE TO WEAK SHORTWAVES PENETRATING THE RIDGE.

AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
WARM AND DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST 850 MB TEMPS IN THE MID TEENS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID
80S...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A 500 MB SHORTWAVE ATTEMPTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GUIDANCE SUITE BASICALLY DISINTEGRATES THE SHORTWAVE
AS IT PASSES ACROSS THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. GFS SURFACE BASED
CAPES APPROACH 2000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. GFS PW VALUES AVERAGE
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DUE TO CLOUDS/POTENTIAL PRECIP...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE A LITTLE COOLER. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S...WHICH IS
A LITTLE BELOW GFS MOS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE WILL RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SHORTWAVE DISSIPATE TO OUR
EAST. MODELS DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH GFS/ECMWF 2 METER DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO
AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SOUPY NATURE OF THE AIR
MASS AND MODEL INDICATIONS OF WEAK IMPULSES WITHIN THE RIDGE...POPS
WILL BE IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS...A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN
GFS MOS DUE TO POTENTIAL CLOUDS/PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORING OVER TN VALLEY WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR SAVE
FOR DIURNAL FEW-SCT BASES IN DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC BOUNDARY FLOW
IN OUR NE (KEVV/KOWB MAINLY) THIS PM. HIGH SHIFTS EAST TMRW SO
GRADUAL BACKING OF SURFACE FLOW TO WLYS/SWLYS SHOULD DEVELLOP BY
MIDDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     110>112-114.

IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$