Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271412
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
912 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

UPDATE INCLUDES EXTENDING COVERAGE POPS EAST INTO SOUTHERN IL FOR
VERY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SE. SHOULD BE MOSTLY GONE BY
MIDDAY AND SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING AT ALL. TEMPS WERE
RUNNING HIGHER THAN FORECAST AS WELL BASED ON THE HOURLYS SO THOSE
WERE UPDATED AS WELL. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

AS MEAN LONG WAVE AXIS ROTATES ACROSS AREA...BEST UVM/MOISTURE
OVERLAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SEMO THIS MORNING. TEMP PROFILE THERE
SUGGESTS IT MAY BE LIGHT PCPN CHANCE FOR RW-/SW- THRU ABOUT
18Z...AFTER WHICH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN BEHIND LONG WAVE
TROF`S MOVE INTO/ACROSS TN VALLEY. OTHERWISE A CLOUDY/COOL/RAW
DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S.

SURFACE HIGH SHOULD LET SOME CLEARING WORK IN LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY TONIGHT...AND TEMPS WILL PLUMMET. THOUGH CLOUDS WORK IN FROM
THE WEST LATER TONIGHT INTO TMRW...SHOULD STILL SEE A BOTTOM OUT
LOW IN THE 20S TONIGHT. COORD/COLLAB WITH LMK/KY AG SUGGESTS TOO
EARLY FOR FREEZE HEADLINES YET...SO WE`LL JUST HIGHLIGHT IN THE
HWO. THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT-EARLY TMRW MAY INCLUDE
ANOTHER PASSING CHANCE OF RW-/SW- AND AGAIN...MAINLY SEMO...AS
ANOTHER SPOKE OF PVA/TROF AXIS ENERGY MAKES PASSAGE. SATURDAY IS
ANOTHER RAW DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 40S.

HEIGHTS START TO REBOUND BY SUNDAY. AFTER ANOTHER SUB FREEZING
NIGHT SAT NIGHT...TEMPS WILL RECOVER INTO THE 50S FOR SUNDAY. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO MOVE IN ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH
SUNDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...AS
AN UPPER TROF AXIS MAKES PASSAGE ACROSS THE MID-UPR OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO
VALLEYS ON MONDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND INCREASING SUN ANGLE
WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES DESPITE LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS. WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST OF OUR REGION LATE IN THE
DAY...A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

BY MID WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER A LITTLE BIT IN TIMING OF
THE COLD FRONT AND QUITE A BIT IN ONSET OF ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION. GFS SPREADS PRECIPITATION INTO THE PAH FORECAST
AREA AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT... WHILE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HOLD
OFF UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PREFERRING TO LEAN
CLOSER TO THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS...KEPT TUESDAY NIGHT DRY...THEN
WENT WITH CHANCE POPS WEST TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EAST ON
WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE NORTHWEST TO CHANCE POPS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY. DUE TO
TIMING QUESTIONS...KEPT POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY OR LOWER.
MODELS SHOW LI`S OF 0 TO -4 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AND INCLUDED CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE TIME
PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO LOWERING VFR CIGS WITH SOME CLOUD
BASES 4-5K FEET AGL POSSIBLE...MAINLY KCGI TERMINAL. A SMALL PCPN
CHANCE EXISTS BUT SHOULD STAY WEST OF TERMINALS...WITH KCGI THE
MOST IMMINENT THREAT THIS MORNING. BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING...CLOUDS SHOULD DISPERSE AS HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO WORK ACROSS THE FA.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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