Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 292048

National Weather Service Paducah KY
248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

Light rains are spreading back northeast across much of the area.
Considering regional radar trends and water vapor imagery, it will
likely be well into the evening hours before it comes to an end
from west to east. The latest HRRR suggests a rapid drying trend
from west to east from 00Z-03Z. As winds drop off into the
overnight hours, drizzle and fog are likely to develop, so added
in areas of drizzle to most of the region.

A weak warm front will try to move through the region Monday, but
it will not be significant enough to even generate a few breaks
in the low overcast. The warm frontal passage is associated with a
rather intense storm system lifting northeast through the
northern Plains/upper Midwest.

The 12Z models continue to be all over the place with QPF Monday
and Monday night. Odds are that the moisture we have been fighting
all weekend will be lifted back across west Kentucky, at the
least, Monday afternoon and night. The models hint at shower
development over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois mainly
on the trailing cold front Monday night, so will keep at least a
chance PoP throughout the region, but likely to categorical PoPs
will been posted in the southeast.

Some rain may linger in the far east/southeast into Tuesday morning,
but it still appears that we will finally dry out Tuesday afternoon
and Tuesday night.

Will stay close to consensus for highs and lows through the

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

High confidence in the extended.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure setting up over the
heartland and dominating the weather pattern. So high and dry will
be the ruling weather factor for the extended. We will start out
slightly below normal for temperatures but as the axis of the surface
high drifts east a southerly flow will resume and bring us slightly
above normal temperatures for the rest of the weekend. The next
chance of rain will arrive day eight or nine as a an upper low
impacts the area early next week. Even then the low will originate
out of the southwest with no significant cold air foreseen in its


Issued at 1144 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

IFR ceilings cover the entire region today, along with northeast
winds around 10kts. MVFR visibilities should accompany the rain as
it moves across all but possibly the KEVV terminal this afternoon,
but would not completely rule out a period of IFR visibilities in
the rain. The rain should exit early this evening, but figure that
the MVFR visibilities will remain. As winds die off later tonight,
expect deteriorating conditions in drizzle and fog. Those conditions
may linger through the end of the period, as winds will struggle
to pick up before 18Z.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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