Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211138
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

.Update...
Updated aviation section for 12z tafs

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Thursday night/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Dry and cool conditions will continue through the short term.
Surface high pressure will move slowly east across the Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight...reaching the Great Lakes and the Ohio
Valley Wednesday night. With the exception of some diurnal cumulus
clouds this afternoon...very little cloudiness is expected through
Wed night. Wednesday should be the coolest day of the week as the
high makes its closest approach. Highs will be mainly in the lower
60s Wednesday. The coldest night should be Wednesday night...when
skies will be clear with calm winds. Most guidance continues to
look too warm...so forecast temps will be lowered down toward the
00z ecmwf mos. The 00z ecmwf mos has lows ranging from the mid 30s
in southwest IN to near 40 in southeast MO on Wed night. There
appears to be a fairly high frost potential...mainly east of the
Mississippi River.

On Thursday...a weakening mid-level shortwave will move east
through the Mississippi Valley. Since the shortwave will be
embedded within a broader scale ridge...the weakening trend
indicated by the models looks reasonable. Most of the guidance
shows moisture diminishing as the system moves east...so the
forecast will be kept dry. Though mid level moisture will
increase...dry air and strongly anticyclonic flow in the lower
levels should keep anything more than sprinkles from reaching the
ground. Temps will begin a slow warming trend as the surface high
retreats east of our region.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Monday/
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Very little to discuss in the long term period.

On Friday the ECMWF drops a closed H5 low from the Great Lakes
region southeastward into the mid Ohio valley and cranks out a tad
of QPF very close to the far northeast corner of our CWA. During the
same time frame the GFS keeps it an open H5 short wave, tracks it
slightly further east, and indicates no QPF near our CWA.
Consequently will leave Friday dry for the time being.

Beyond that high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft is
expected to keep the remainder of the long term period dry with at
or above normal temperatures.

Just beyond the time frame of this forecast package, a weather
system is forecast to be knocking on our western doorstep, so future
forecast packages may include precipitation chances for next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014

Some patchy ground fog at kcgi will burn off shortly after sunrise.
Scattered diurnal cumulus clouds will form by midday and then
dissipate by sunset. Some patchy fog may form again very late
tonight...primarily at kcgi. Winds will be north 5 to 10 knots
today...then nearly calm tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....JP
AVIATION...MY






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