Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280635
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
135 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

The upper ridge that has been the primary cause of the oppressive
conditions over the past week or so will remain begin to shift
slowly eastward on Thursday.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon either side of a
quasi-stationary frontal boundary just to the north of our CWA
should begin to dissipate with the setting of the sun or shortly
thereafter.

The frontal boundary is forecast to sag slowly southwestward
overnight into our CWA and be bisecting our area from NW-SE by 12Z
(7 AM) Thursday, then lift back to the northeast as a warm front
during the day. In the process, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop over the northeastern two thirds of our CWA and
continue into the evening hours.

On Friday we will be in the warm sector but widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the far northeast sections
where capping will be weakest, and over the far western sections
with the approach of a weather system developing over the central
plains. As this system draws closer to our CWA Friday night,
precipitation chances will increase from the west.

Right now the thinking is to NOT extend the Heat Advisory past 7 PM
this evening. The heat Index may reach 100 degrees in a couple of
spots Thursday afternoon, but not widespread enough to continue with
the advisory. If later guidance comes in with temperatures and/or
dew points a tad higher, a new advisory may become necessary. A lot
is going to depend on cloud cover Thursday and any convection that
develops.

Beyond Thursday the combination of cloud cover and precipitation
should keep heat indices below 100 degrees, but not that far. Even
though heat indices (widespread) are not expected to reach advisory
criteria beyond today, persons across the lower Ohio valley still
need to take all of the necessary precautions to protect themselves
from high heat and humidity over the upcoming holiday weekend and
through at least the middle of next week as temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s through the period
along with little change to dew points.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 126 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

The models are in basic agreement that the long term portion of
the forecast starts out looking like a wet/active pattern. Gulf
moisture will return ahead of a developing trof in the Plains, and
overrun the TN valley as High pressure is positioned to the east
and the return flow sets up in earnest.

Heights fall as the Plains trof approaches, and Pops spike Sat
night-Sunday on its approach. It lays a boundary out to our north,
and while not focused overhead, daily Pops do continue through the
early part of the week.

As the boundary lays out and the energy translates east, broader
height rises will eventually begin to overtake basic parcel motion
over the region, and Pops wane to just slgt chance mentions by the
end of the long term period/into the mid week.

Due to more clouds/active pcpn around, temps mute somewhat into
the 80s/around 90 for highs, and low 70s/around 70 for lows with
mugginess continuing given dew points holding firm in the active
return flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 253 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

IFR or lower conditions are likely to develop again late tonight
at KCGI and KPAH, but MVFR should be the rule at KEVV and KOWB.
Widely separated daytime convection will be too isolated to
mention explicitly with this package.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





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