Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 280839
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
339 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE A WEAK BUT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT THRU
MUCH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROF/SPEED MAX MAKES ITS WAY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...IT
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY CLOSER TO US WITH TIME. THIS
FRONT WILL SERVE TO BETTER FOCUS MOISTURE/HEAT ENERGY ALONG/AHEAD
OF IT AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE RESULT...A SLOW/BUT SURE STEADILY
INCREASING POP WITH TIME AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
RATHER WET AS THE FRONT EASES DOWN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS IN
THAT TIME FRAME...BUT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS A BIT LIMITED
AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT RATHER WET FOR THE PAH FORECAST
AREA...AS MOST OF THE MED RANGE MODELS SHOW AN INTERESTING MID LEVEL
FEATURE IN THE VICINITY...WITH AN ATTENDANT SFC REFLECTION. THE
GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS APPEAR IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...WITH THE
"TROFFINESS" SHOWN A BIT STRONGER BY THE GEFS.

AGAINST A PERSISTENT HIGH OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE MID LEVEL
TROF IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE MID MS VALLEY INTO NEXT
WEEK...THEN CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM FLOW...TENDING TO MAINTAIN
THE SFC LOW OVER OUR REGION FOR A WHILE. HOWEVER BY MIDDAY TUE...AS
MOST OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY TRANSITIONS TO THE MID LEVEL
LOW...THE SFC LOW IS PROGGED TO GET ABSORBED INTO THE INCREASING
SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR REGION. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY MIDWEEK AS THE FETCH
TURNS MORE OUT OF THE FL COASTAL WATERS.

WHAT ALL THIS MEANS IS SHOWERS AND TSTMS APPEAR TO BE LIKELY SUNDAY
FOR MOST OF THE AREA...TRENDING DOWNWARD IN POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MON TO MORE OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. BY MON NIGHT...POPS APPEAR TO BE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT... FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCES THROUGH
TUE NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A MINOR INCREASE IN POPS FOR WED...MAINLY IN
THE SRN HALF OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE POSSIBLE SURGE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RECOVER TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE INCREASING SRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS 00Z THURSDAY WFO PAH TAF PACKAGE. WITH
THE SURFACE FRONT JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...THE PASSAGE
OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS AT MID-LEVELS MAY SUPPORT MORE OR LESS
PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z THURSDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM-WRF GUIDANCE WITH THIS ISSUANCE FOR CEILINGS. MAY
HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS DURING ANY UPDATES THAT MAY BE REQUIRED IN
THE 01Z-02Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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