Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 280834
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
334 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

The main concern in the near term is the potential for showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Low pressure analyzed over Lake
Michigan early this morning will drag a seasonably strong cold
front across the forecast area today. Dynamics with this system
will result in widespread rain showers today. Most of the activity
will occur this morning, but may linger over mainly western
Kentucky into the afternoon and early evening.

Marginal elevated instability still supports a mention of isolated
thunderstorms, and this bears out in recent lightning detection
just northwest of the area. Overall precipitation will average one
quarter to one half inch with localized totals enhanced in brief
thunder activity. However, the progressive nature of this system
should preclude any significant water issues.

Lingering precipitation is forecast to clear southeast portions of
the area this evening as the cold front shifts to the east. In the
wake of the front, a transition to seasonably cool weather will
take place as high pressure builds east from the Plains. Plenty
of sunshine is expected on Wednesday with highs in the lower to
mid 60s.

Clouds will be on the increase on Thursday as a weak weather
disturbance dives southeast from the Northern Plains in northwest
flow aloft. The substantial moisture with this feature is forecast
to remain above 10kft, so most of the precipitation should tend to
evaporate before reaching the ground. A few sprinkles or light
showers are not out of the question though, particularly Thursday
afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

High confidence through much of the extended.

The weekend time frame will be dominated by a surge of Canadian high
pressure. In fact...many locations will likely see a widespread
frost or freeze Sat/Sun mornings. Highs Saturday will struggle into
the 50s despite ample sunshine. The high pressure system will
finally drift east of the region later Sunday into Monday, allowing
for a gradual warm up to get underway.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

With the approach and passage of a cold front, cloudiness will
increase and lower through the morning. For the most part, VFR
conditions will prevail...however there could be MVFR cigs/vsbys
in SHRA in the 12-18Z time frame. Southerly winds AOB 10 knots
will eventually veer around to the west, and then northwest behind
the front and remain AOB 10 knots.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...RJP







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