Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 282003
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SLOWLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COMPACT 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE MODELS TAKE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EAST ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. THE
12Z NAM AND MOST MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
THE ONGOING PRECIP. THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST...PASSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR
TONIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE REGION OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING IS
LIKELY. POPS WILL RANGE FROM LIKELY IN THE KMVN AREA TO SLIGHT
CHANCE ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

ON MONDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EXTREME WEST KENTUCKY. WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. THE 12Z NAM IS AMONG THE MODELS THAT INDICATE LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION BEFORE 00Z.

ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION UNDERNEATH A SLOW-MOVING 500 MB TROUGH. THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT...AND
THEN JUST EAST OF OUR REGION TUESDAY. WHATEVER ACTIVITY OCCURS
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND MOSTLY OF THE DIURNAL
VARIETY. A LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS THE SURFACE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY ACROSS THE
REGION.

ON TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MISSOURI AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE
MODELS DEEPEN A LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BACKS INTO THE SOUTH AND MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE LONG TERM PORTION
OF THE FORECAST.

AS FOR HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS
EXPECTED. THE MORE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE WILL BE IN HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND LOW TEMPS...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

NO REAL CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
WET...EACH AND EVERY DAY.

A VERY SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AS A RESULT...RATHER THAN TRY AND DISCUSS EACH PERIOD
INDIVIDUALLY...SINCE THE DAILY/NIGHTLY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE COMBINATION OF SIMILAR
PARAMETERS...WILL AGAIN KEEP THE DISCUSSION RATHER BRIEF.

OTHER THAN TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN LONG TERM
MODELS...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO HANG UP EITHER OVER OR
NEAR OUR CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOISTURE POOLING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH A NON-STOP BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIVING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS STILL
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THESE EVENTS THIS
FAR OUT SO AGAIN WILL LEAVE POPS IN EVERY PERIOD FOR NOW UNTIL
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE SITUATION.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS FORMED LATE THIS MORNING...WITH BASES AROUND
4K TO 5K FEET. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
IS ENHANCING THE CUMULUS FIELD OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND RADAR
INDICATES SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOT FAR BEHIND NEAR
KSTL. THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST. AS IT MOVES INTO
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR OVER SE ILLINOIS AND SW INDIANA...THE
ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN. INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA IN THE
KEVV/KOWB AREAS THIS EVENING. MID LEVEL CIGS AROUND 8K FEET WILL
OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING AND EXIT THE REGION TOWARD
MORNING. ON MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS TO
REDEVELOP. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...JAP
AVIATION...MY


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