Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221945

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Strong high pressure to our east will move slowly away tonight,
with a H5 ridge axis approaching from the west. Mid and upper
level clouds will persist in the NW/SE flow aloft overnight. We
will be at or just above MOS for lows with a light wind persisting
and passing clouds.

Thursday, all the models show some isentropic lift at 305k, with
mid level moisture and qg forcing present. However, it`s not stand
out, and the atmosphere at 925mb and below will be very dry.
While we do not plan a mention at this time given low confidence,
a sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out, especially SEMO, into SRN
IL, west KY. The CMC/GFS have had greater moisture, while the
EC/NAM fairly dry.

We expect dry weather Thursday night as the H5 ridge moves across
the area. Kept slight chance PoPs in Friday morning, though we
removed thunder given lack of instability forecast. Moisture is
fairly shallow, so it may be mostly clouds, maybe drizzle or
sprinkles. By afternoon, PoPs mainly across SEMO for convection.
PoPs will increase from west to east Friday night in response to
increasing ascent ahead of an approaching H5 low, forecast to be
over the Central Plains by 06z Saturday. For this time frame, we
used a model consensus as solutions have lined up reasonably.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active weather pattern is expected through the extended forecast.
Models are in good agreement showing a surface low over northeast
Missouri at 00z Sunday.  The associated cold front will push across
the PAH forecast area Saturday into Saturday night, with widespread
showers and some thunderstorms expected.  Models remain in good
agreement into Sunday, showing the precipitation east of our region
by midday.  Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild both ahead of
and behind the front.

It will only be a brief break from the wet conditions Sunday
afternoon into Sunday evening.  Models bring another surface low
from the southern Plains Sunday night into northern Arkansas by 00z
Tuesday.  Another surge of moisture is expected ahead of the low and
associated cold front, with showers spreading across western
portions of our region late Sunday night.  On Monday, instability
will increase with the closer proximity of the low, so showers and
some thunderstorms are expected.  Showers will continue into Monday
night, but any thunderstorm activity should remain confined to our
southern counties.  Models take the low northeast of our region by
12z Tuesday, and shower chances will decrease.

As we get into Tuesday and Wednesday, models differ quite a bit on
timing of our next weather system, and for now just went with on and
off low chances for showers.  Temperatures for the first half of the
work week will remain well above seasonal normals, with lows in the
upper 40s to middle 50s, and highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s.


Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Mar 22 2017

VFR conditions through 18z Thursday. Occasional mid and high
clouds. Gusty ENE winds this afternoon (20 kt gusts at times)
will diminish to less than 10 kts overnight and veer to the
ESE through Thursday morning. Some sprinkles cannot be ruled out
Thursday morning. Virga likely.



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