Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 172022
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

During the next 24-36 hrs, we see Low pressure lift across the
Red River valley, with associated moisture advecting northward/up
the Mississippi valley, and chance cat pops spread across the Quad
State tmrw. Altogether, the pcpn is light qpf, as the Low tracks
across our southern border. Pcpn chances wind down/diminish in our
south/east Saturday evening.

Afterwards, high pressure ridging moves in. So the continuation of
unseasonal warmth is retained throughout the duration of the short
term, with 60s highs commonplace and even some lower 70s making an
appearance Sunday. Lows will be mainly in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Models are now a little faster with an approaching cold front at the
beginning of the work week.  ECMWF and especially GFS indicate some
light showers making it into our far west/northwest counties on
Monday.  ECMWF and GFS then spread precipitation across the entire
PAH forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Both models
then taper off showers from west to east Tuesday night.  Although
this is much faster than yesterday, the agreement in the models
timing and QPF trends does lend itself to a bit more confidence. But
since we have seen so many variations in the models the past several
days, we will keep probabilities in the chance category through the
event for now.  QPF amounts at this point look to be in the one
quarter to one half inch range, although GFS is a bit more generous
in portions of west Kentucky.  Dry conditions are expected late
Tuesday night through early Wednesday night.

By Thursday, however, the models again diverge.  GFS shows a warm
front just north of our region and develops light precipitation
across the PAH forecast area, while the ECMWF has the front and
resultant precipitation well north of our region.  For now just went
with a slight chance of showers in our eastern counties late
Wednesday night into early Thursday.  By Friday, the models come
into better agreement and drag a cold front across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. GFS is a little slower and shows
much more significant QPF with the front, but at least the general
timing is similar, so we went with low chances for showers spreading
east across the area late Thursday night, with good chances across
the entire area Friday.  Included slight chances of thunderstorms
across our southern counties late Thursday night, with chances
spreading north through the day Friday.

The part of the forecast where confidence is high is temperatures.
There is no real change in air mass through the entire week, so it
will continue to be unseasonably warm.  Temperatures through the
week will run 15 to 25 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Fri Feb 17 2017

Time/height cross sections show a down-column saturation that will
occur commencing later tonight but esp tmrw, as Low pressure
drifts into/across the area. We`ll see VFR CIGS thru the bulk of
the forecast, lowering to flirt with MVFR CIGS by the end.
Vicinity showers will be possible south, mainly KCGI/KPAH, tmrw
during the day.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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