Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250521

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

For aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Above average confidence for most of the short term period due to
decent model agreement, then average confidence at the very end.

Over the next couple of days the area of high pressure that has
dominated the region`s weather the past couple of days will continue
to slowly move off to the east while flow aloft backs from near
zonal to southwest.

This deep southerly flow will begin to advect moisture back across
the region around mid week. With the approach of a system slowly
ejecting northeast out of the southern plains, precipitation chances
begin making their way into the far western sections of our CWA late
Wednesday night, at least that`s what the more aggressive models
think. The lesser aggressive ones hold it off to our west until
Thursday night. Models are showing weak upglide on the I300 surface
over our far western counties late Wednesday night so decided to
include small pops there.

As the upper low (the driving force behind aforementioned system)
digs into the southwest US on Thursday, it will tend to hold back or
slow significantly the eastward progress of the system. Therefore
how far eastward precipitation spreads on Thanksgiving day is
somewhat up in the air right now, so will just show pops over the
northwest half.

Thursday night models are showing a short wave diving southeast
across the northern plains which will tend to push the moisture and
synoptic features hung up to our north and west across/into our area
significantly raising precipitation chances, especially over the
northwest half of our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

Relatively high confidence we will have a wet extended and above
normal temperatures.

As a matter of fact it should be raining at the start of the
extended. The heaviest rain should fall Friday numbers averaging
around an inch and half west of the Mississippi Friday with lighter
amounts to the east. A cold front associated with an upper low over
far ne Canada. The front shears off and meanders just south of the
area this weekend as the winds will be southwest or parallel to the
front. Meanwhile a fairly strong upper low over the central rockies
will slowly progress eastward into the plains toward our the great
lakes region. This scenario will keep a moist southwest flow over
the area with several rounds of lighter rain this weekend. The low
will phase with the stalled front over the area and lift it
northeast out of the heartland around Tuesday. There is not much in
the way of cool air with frontal passage Friday nor with one Monday.
So a unseasonably warm and wet extended forecast starting late
Thanksgiving evening or overnight. Storm total rainfall from late
Thursday into Monday of next week will average around four inches in
the Ozarks tapering to two to three inches along the Pennyrile
Parkway in west KY and US highway 41 in southwest IN. Right now its
a bit far out but there are a few hints of elevated instability
Monday albeit weak. But will monitor for possible introduction of


Issued at 1120 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2015

High pressure to keep sites dry with VFR conditions through the
06Z TAF period. Southerly winds AOB 6 knots will pick up after
15Z to 10-12 knots...possibly gusting up to 15-16 knots.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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