Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150246
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
946 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Made some minor adjustments through the night in most elements,
but the previous update is in pretty good shape. Debated about
adding a the Wabash River counties of southern Illinois into the
Freeze Warning, but that it is just to close to call. If those
areas touch 32 degrees it would very briefly right near sunrise.
Will resent the Freeze Warning as is. Winds will remain gusty all
night, which will keep frost from being an issue, but it will take
wind chills into the mid 20s by daybreak. Better bundle up for the
bus stop tomorrow.

UPDATE Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Updated aviation section.

Just overhauled the forecast for tonight. The band of precipitation
that was producing snow over central Missouri this afternoon, has
lifted northeast, and should not impact our northwestern areas. The
back edge of the measurable rain extends from the Missouri Bootheel
northeast through southeast Illinois as of 2330Z. This area will
slowly push eastward through the evening hours. Also, it appears
that the thunder threat has shifted east of the area. With the
precipitation coming to a quicker end from west to east this
evening, the potential for snow is very low. Removed the mention of
snow from most locations, and also the thunder from early this
evening. Will have to watch trends this evening, just in case the
snow potential increases, but see no way that it would amount to
anything.

As for the freeze warning, it looks ok. We seem to be running ahead
of the forecast for cooling early this evening, but given that there
are no freezing temperatures to be seen within a reasonable distance
upstream, figure that the current forecast of temperatures near and
just below freezing will suffice. Will monitor trends through the
evening, but do not foresee any major adjustments to the freeze
warning at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Convection increased as expected from AR and into the SW part of
the CWFA this afternoon. The NAM had a decent handle on this. Will
follow its lead through the remainder of the afternoon and
evening. Thunder as expected as well as elevated instability is
still present over the SE 1/3 of the region. Will also increase
PoPs from the west, as a large area of precip (including snow)
over MO moves east ahead of the parent upper trof seen on Water
Vapor moving east from the Plains. Will transition from the
convective chances SE, rain/drizzle elsewhere, to rain through the
evening, which may mix with or fall as some snow over mainly the
NNW part of the area. No accumulation.

After midnight, should clear out rapidly from west to east. Went
ahead with a Freeze Warning west of a Fairfield, IL to Poplar
Bluff, MO line as temperatures are forecast to fall to near
freezing there. Should not be a hard freeze. But forecast temps
warrant the warning per guidance. Better chance of a hard freeze
will occur Wednesday morning with lighter winds area wide and lows
in the upper 20s to lower 30s, slightly longer duration as well,
and frost.

Otherwise Tuesday through Wednesday night will be dry. Cool
Tuesday, then back into the upper 50s or so Wednesday as surface
high pressure moves east across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

The persistent signal presented last week in the medium range
numerical model suite, suggested a strong, more negatively tilted
system, with copious amounts of rainfall.

However, looking at the near end of the extended forecast period
(Friday), the middle level flow displays a significantly weaker
positive tilt shortwave in approximately the same location as the
earlier deeper, closed upper low. In fact, even the deep convective
instability associated with this system is almost non-existent for
thunderstorms, suggesting primarily a showery system.

In order to reflect a more realistic transition for the
introduction/transition/departure of PoPs and weather for the Friday
system, the time period was reduced to a six hour time frame, with
the highest PoPs still centered during the day on Friday.  Slightly
increased the coverage of the higher PoPs on Friday to reflect the
increasingly stronger signal.

There remains some disparity in model solutions for the next weather
system in northwest flow behind the Friday weather system. The GFS
Ensemble mean and deterministic 00z/12z Monday ECMWF were more
similar in solution and were used as a base template for PoPs and
Weather for Sunday into Monday of next week. Went with a lower PoP
(chance) event. Given the limited instability, no mention of thunder
and a light QPF was assigned to this weather event.

Although Maximum temperatures will range from zero to ten degrees
below normal for this time of year during the extended forecast
period, minimum temperatures should hold near normal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 717 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

Expect gusty nwrly to nrly sfc winds to stay up behind a cold
front overnight and well into Tue as a colder air mass continues
to move in from the west, just ahead of an upper shrtwv. Light
rain over the ern half of the region is expected to move out of
the region by around midnight, but there is a possibility of vsby-
restricting drizzle with the MVFR cloud deck. Some short-term data
indicates that there may be enough lift in the lower trop for IFR
cigs in the ern third of the PAH forecast area from mid evening
into the wee hours, and this may squeeze drizzle out of the clouds
beyond the time of rain cessation. If drizzle becomes more likely,
the TAFs will be updated to reflect this.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075-076-080>082-
     084>086-088-089-092-093.

MO...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

     FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>111.

IN...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FREEZE WATCH from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DB






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