Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 251140

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

640 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Updated aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

The mid level flow over the CONUS/southern Canada will transition
from a western ridge/eastern trof scenario to a split flow regime,
with an embedded shortwave temporarily damping the ridge. The
shortwave is progged by the models to move into the Midwest by

A well-developed surface low is expected to develop in conjunction
with this system and move across IA and northern parts of IL/IN/OH,
dragging a cold front through the PAH forecast area in the early
hours of Thursday. The focus provided by this feature, combined
with return flow moisture ahead of it, should create scattered
showers, with some possibility of tstms, and the highest PoPs in
southwestern IL and adjacent parts of southeastern MO Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Otherwise, expect mostly clear conditions with
at or above average temperatures. Wednesday will be the warmest
day of the short term, with highs well into the 70s, and lows in
the 50s Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

Confidence in the extended portion of the forecast is high.

The four state region will start out under the influence of weak
surface high pressure and northwest flow aloft. The primary synoptic
trend through the extended period is a progressive upper ridge
initially over the Rockies moving eastward to the Appalachians by

The main concern for this forecast period is the path of a storm
system in the Friday/Saturday timeframe. The 00Z ECMWF and GFS now
take this system through the Great Lakes and keep our area dry. The
GFS doesn`t even push the associated cold front through the region.
The 00Z CMC does dig this system farther to the southwest as it
develops a much more amplified flow by Saturday. The CMC does bring a
swath of QPF through the region in association with the cold front
Friday night. Will side with ECMWF and GFS for this forecast, and
keep it dry, but with a weak cold frontal passage Saturday night
more like the ECMWF.

By early next week, weak southwest flow aloft will impinge on the
region, and the 00Z GFS develops some scattered light warm advection
showers over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Cannot discount this possibility, so will have some slight chances
on the west/northwest periphery of the region early next Tuesday.

Temperatures will be varying degrees above normal through the
period. The warmest days are likely to be Saturday and Tuesday, when
some 80 degree readings are not out of the question. Lows will start
out in the upper half of the 40s Thursday night, but will then be
generally in the 50s for the remainder of the forecast. It does not
look like there will be any frost concerns for this portion of the


Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016

High pressure over the Great Lakes region will produce a dry
easterly wind flow through the TAF period. Winds will be light at
the surface, however winds just off the surface will be 20 to 25
knots during the nighttime hours. Some high cirrus clouds will
arrive today, but should be of the thin variety.




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