Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 191730
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1130 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

High pressure at the surface will remain ridged across the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee river valley through the period.
Coincident with that, Low pressure aloft will be
developing/drifting into/across the lower Mississippi valley. This
will begin to advect the pool of moisture, now seen on IR
satellite extending across east Texas and Louisiana, northeastward
into our area. Gridded time/height cross sections reveal much of
this moisture in the sub 800 mb layer, as condensation pressure
deficits shrivel to 10 mb, to begin the weekend. As the column
continues to warm/moisten, by late Saturday night, this
overrunning warm air advection regime will be thickening enough
to begin to produce some light rain or drizzle over much of the
area.

Anticipate Highs nearing 40 today to increase another 5 to 7
degrees tomorrow, with Lows following a similar pattern (or
tad better) nightly, from their bottom out levels near the
freezing mark tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Main impact in this portion of the forecast continues to be with a
storm system in the Sunday night/Monday morning time frame.

An upper level low is forecast to be centered over Colorado Sunday
morning. This feature will pivot northeastward into the Great Lakes
region by Monday night. A surface low and associated cold front will
develop ahead of it, approaching our area by late Sunday evening
into Sunday night. The 00z suite of models are in fairly good
agreement, although the operational GFS continues to be a little
faster than the ECMWF.

With plenty of low level moisture present, a few light showers may
be sprinkled around the area in the warm air advection regime in
place during the day on Sunday. However, the bulk of the
precipitation looks to hold off until Sunday night into Monday
morning. Some lingering showers may still be affecting
eastern/northeastern counties Monday afternoon.

This system continues to show plenty of shear with it, including a
healthy LLJ setting up over our region. However, instability
continues to remain a question, particularly any surface based. Some
elevated instability appears to be there, at least initially, with
Showalters in the 0 to -2 range over southeast Missouri, although
even that decreases as you head eastward in time through the
night. Have maintained a slight chance of thunder mainly for
western and southern counties.

QPF amounts remain on track with previous forecast, with generally
0.5" to 0.75" over southeast Missouri and upwards to around 0.5"
east of the Mississippi River. Some locally higher amounts will be
possible. This rainfall, combined with the snowmelt, may pose
some flooding potential, with rises on area streams and rivers
anticipated. We continue to highlight that hazard/impact on the
HWO, as well as in some web based/social media graphics/posts.

Dry conditions look to dominate much of the rest of the week, with
high pressure sliding into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Model disagreement exists later in the week into next weekend, but
there remains a fairly strong signal for another potential storm
system to impact the region in the 26th/27th timeframe.

Temperatures will be near to above normal throughout the period,
providing a nice break from the extended cold weather we have
endured recently.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

This afternoon, VFR conditions, SSW winds 8-12 kts, gusts 15 to 20
kts. Tonight, increasing high and mid clouds. LLWS expected as
strong southwest 40 to 50 kts of wind flow develops just above
the surface. Saturday morning through midday, cigs will lower as
low level moisture surges northeast into the area. MVFR conditions
likely. The winds just off the surface will lower some, and
reduce the LLWS aspect. Surface winds tonight through Saturday
morning generally SSW 7 to 11 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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