Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 112248

548 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Issued at 522 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Southerly low level flow will result in warmer conditions through
Monday. Tonight, a steady light southerly wind is expected to
prevail most of the night, which should (1.) keep temperatures
several degrees warmer than last night, and (2.) prevent any
substantial fog development overnight. An increase in 850-700mb
moisture may result in the formation of scattered mid level clouds
as well. Lows by morning are forecast in the mid to upper 50s.

Temperatures on Monday are forecast to surge above the 80 degree
mark across much of the region--perhaps even reaching the mid 80s
in a few spots. It will also be quite breezy given the enhanced
pressure gradient in the vicinity of a passing cold front. With
limited low level moisture, the main impact from the passing front
still appears to be some increase in clouds.

By afternoon however, most models develop a ribbon of elevated
and surface-based instability along and ahead of the front--mainly
across western Kentucky. This prompted our previous shift and SPC
to include a mention of thunder Monday afternoon into early Monday
evening. Given the rather strong convective inhibition courtesy of
a mid level capping inversion, it may ultimately be a challenge to
convert the instability energy into bona fide convective updrafts.
However, believe the slight chance mention is still warranted
given the relatively strong forcing along the cold front.

A clearing sky and cooler temperatures will take place Monday
night as the cold front sweeps east of the region. Temperatures by
Tuesday morning should average around the 50 degree mark. Clear
skies will prevail Tuesday and Tuesday night as high pressure
prevails. Highs Tuesday should top 70 across most of the area,
with lows Tuesday night in the mid and perhaps lower 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

Forecast confidence is moderate to high through the extended portion
of the forecast.

An upper-level ridge will be centered over the west coast/Rockies
into the first half of next weekend, while a trough will persist
over the Great Lakes and northeast states. This will put our region
firmly in northwest flow through the period.

Most of the energy from disturbances diving into the base of the
trough will stay over the Great Lakes, and the associated surface
fronts will generally be just minor wind shifts in our region. The
exception will be with a stronger disturbance that will move through
the region late Thursday night and Friday morning. The 00Z ECMWF and
GEM were stronger and wetter with this system than the 12Z GFS, but
even the GFS is trending stronger and spitting out some minor QPF
across the south. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are a bit weaker and
emphasizing the northeast quadrant of the area late Thursday night.
Elevated instability will generally stay to the west of our region,
so thunder is not a concern at this time. However, given the
latest model trends, will introduce a slight chance of showers
in the far northeast late Thursday night and in the
south/southwest Friday.

Strong westerly flow coming off the Pacific and into at least the
northwest coast will help to push the upper trough east of the area
by next Sunday. South winds may develop over much of the forecast
area on Sunday, so the cool shot of Canadian air will most likely be

Temperatures will start out a few degrees above normal Wednesday and
Thursday and then trend to around 5 degrees below normal for both
days next weekend.


Issued at 522 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2015

A cold front takes shape tonight and makes its approach tomorrow.
Southerlys ahead of the approaching front may gust at times during
the day tmrw. Warm advection mainly mid and high level clouds
could scatter and occasionally may base cigs probably at or above
7K feet AGL tmrw.



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