Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 232333
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
633 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

An upper level ridge remains across the area extending from the
Great Lakes south to the lower MS valley. High clouds continue to
push in slowly from the west as the moisture encounters the ridge.
Weak return flow trying to set up west of high pressure to our
east. In the short term, will focus on a mid trop weakness moving
into west MO/AR. The models bring this feature east and eventually
over the CWFA by 12z Tue. Will continue with our introduction of
low chance PoPs SEMO after midnight. Tuesday, as the weak s/wv
aloft moves across the area, will carry low chance PoPs for
convection.

GFS and NAM diverge Tuesday night, with the GFS showing greater
s/wv ridging in the wake of the aforementioned system. Meanwhile
the NAM keeps the flow flat with another weak disturbance moving
across. Will go with small chance PoPs as a result given lower
confidence. The ECMWF is more like the GFS, more conservative with
coverage.

Slightly better PoPs Wednesday following the NAM/ECMWF, as both
show the next weak s/wv moving across the area. GFS doesn`t show
all that much. PoPs lower Wednesday night in the wake of the
Wednesday s/wv. Cannot rule out a strong, isolated severe storms
Wednesday mainly SEMO, southern IL. Mid level lapse rates are
adequate. However low trop thermal profile in question, along with
marginal wind fields.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

A stagnant upper-level flow pattern will keep rather warm and
unsettled conditions over our region through the Memorial Day
weekend. Persistent 500 mb ridging over the eastern states and a
longwave trough over the far western states will result in moist
southwest flow across the Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys.

As far as the timing of the rain chances, there is not enough
continuity among the models to help with that. The timing of
individual shortwaves moving northeast across the central USA
varies from model to model. These impulses should be rather weak,
and at this longer time range the models are unlikely to resolve
small scale features. One thing the models do agree on is that
deep moisture will be available for the impulses to tap into. In
short, this looks like a typical late spring or early summer
pattern, where mesoscale boundaries and mcv`s play a significant
role in qpf placement.

Until a more specific focusing mechanism for precip can be
identified, generic 30 to 50 percent pops will continue every day
in the long term. There is a slightly stronger model signal for
precip Thursday into Friday, when a larger scale 500 mb shortwave
emerges from the Rockies into the central Plains. This shortwave
may move slowly enough to keep higher pops into Saturday as well.
Beyond that, pops will be a little lower for Sunday into Memorial
Day.

Daytime highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s each day
based on anticipated cloud cover. On any given day, a slow-moving
mcs would keep temps lower than 80, and a day with considerable
sun would result in upper 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites. As a skinny upper-level
ridge that is currently overhead moves slowly east through the
period, chances of showers will increase from the west late
tonight through Tuesday. At this time, it appears that any
convection that reaches the area Tuesday will be weakening, and
should have little impact even at KCGI and KPAH.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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