Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 050416

1116 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Issued at 1004 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Only minor changes to current first period (tonight) forecast.
Small scale and terrain induced temperature variations making it
difficult to depict misoscale cold/hot spots. Even high resolution
guidance having issues resolving these differences. Ground fog,
elevated fog layers, etc...on tap again tonight, especially after
midnight across the WFO PAH forecast area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Satellite shows enhanced CU over parts of the area, mainly
SEMO, where best instability axis exists. If activity can form
it will likely not last. Probably a < 10 percent chance of an
isolated shower, with any chance quickly gone by sunset, like the
past couple of days.

Upper trof will remain over the NW sector of the CONUS with a
persistent ridge from TX to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, while
an upper low develops over the SE U.S. All of the models agree a
wedge of drier air will remain parked over the area just east of
the ridge axis. This will keep conditions essentially dry through
the end of the weekend, as surface high pressure only slowly moves
east. Hot days, but some relief at night given the shorter days,
quick temperature falls just after sunset. Persistence was used
for temps, close to MOS values.

.LONG TERM...(Labor Day through Friday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

Average confidence continues in the long term period due to model

Weak high pressure at the surface and aloft at the beginning of the
period should keep the region dry through Monday night. Tuesday as
the ridge begins to slowly break down, a weak front/trough
approaches from the northwest causing precipitation chances to
increase and overspread the area through Wednesday, although timing
and placement of QPF between models not exactly on the same page.
As the front washes out over our area Wednesday night, precipitation
chances should diminish somewhat.

According to the Superblend model, precipitation chances ramp back
up on Thursday as a stronger frontal system over the plains dives
southeast across the area. The GFS agrees fairly well with this
solution but the ECMWF is a good 6-12 hours slower with the fropa.
Model pops still not that high at this point with the fropa due to
model timing disparity, but I have a feeling if everything comes
together as one model solution implies, pops will need to be
increased and the timing of said pops adjusted. For now will just
run with the Superblend solution.

Providing the Superblend solution pans out, in the wake of the fropa
precipitation should diminish from the northwest Thursday night with
Friday being dry.

Above normal temperatures at the beginning of the period will slowly
cool to well below normal readings by the end of the period.


Issued at 1115 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

With temperatures rapidly approaching cross-over values for
dewpoints, fog is beginning to develop across the WFO PAH forecast
area. For now, plan to keep the current timing and intensity of
fog development in place for the WFO PAH TAF sites. Only addition
for this issuance is to include diminished winds and clear skies
for Saturday evening.




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