Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260829
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
329 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOULD BE A FAIRLY UNSETTLED DAY COMING UP AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED
H50 SHORT WAVE EJECTS NE ACROSS THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND
INTERACTS WITH LEFTOVER SFC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROF. ONE OF THE
BIGGER QUESTIONS LIES WITH LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER AND THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IF DECENT
HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE...SHOULD SEE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE BANDS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND GUSTS
WILL BE THE MAIN STORM RISK IN BOWING SEGMENTS...SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

00Z GFS DOES SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE
REGION LATER ON WED OR WED EVENING...SO WILL LEAVE AT LEAST CHC
POPS IN FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THAT TIME FRAME AS
WELL. THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN MORE AS WE HEAD INTO THU TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN WILL COME
INCREASING SFC TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WARM HUMID WEEK WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED AFTN
SHOWERS. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE WEEKEND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

THE BLENDED MODELS...ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE WEAK TO
COMPLETE FLIP FLOPPING WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. THUS THE
EXTENDED INIT IS SLOW TO SHOW A TRUE WIND SHIFT IF ANY AT ALL. IN
CONTRAST THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF ARE WITHIN SIX HOURS OF EACH OTHER
CONCERNING THE WIND SHIFT. ITS DEFINITELY ODD BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN
THE WIND SHIFT A GOOD SIX HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS...WHICH IS
USUALLY THE OPPOSITE WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE SLOWER MODEL WITH
SYSTEMS TYPICALLY. THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A FROPA SUNDAY WHILE THE
GFS IS MORE LIKE SUNDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THEY BOTH AGREE THE FRONT
WILL ACTUALLY COME THROUGH WHICH HAS NOT ALWAYS BEEN THE CASE THE
PAST FEW DAYS. LI`S STAY NEGATIVE UNTIL LATE SUNDAY WITH CAPES
AROUND CAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 200 J/KG/2 OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 2000
J/KG/2 IN THE AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNDAY. THUS EXPECT AT LEAST DAILY
CHANCES OF CONVECTION MAYBE SOME BREAKS OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED NON SEVERE...BUT CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE WITH WIND
BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG OR SEVERE WILL
DEFINITELY BE WITH THE FROPA SUNDAY.

TEMPS AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN HIGH OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THIS
WEEKEND WHEN PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD LOWER THE APPARENT
TEMPERATURE SOMEWHAT AND OF COURSE AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WE
WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS KCGI/KPAH BETWEEN 8-10Z,
AND KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 10-12Z. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL DROP TO MVFR
WITH SHOWERS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL DROP OFF AT KCGI/KPAH AROUND
15Z, AND AROUND 17Z AT KEVV/KOWB, AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST AT 6 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT, THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AFTER 14Z TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. PRECIP CHANCES AFTER 18Z TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...RST



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