Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211918
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Low pressure off to our east will continue to move east the rest
of the weekend, which will allow high pressure to build over the
middle Mississippi Valley. This will give our region dry weather
and lowering humidity levels. Models show the surface high moving
over the PAH forecast area by late Sunday, and east of our region
by Monday. Despite the continued northerly winds on Sunday, plenty
of sunshine will help temperatures moderate to near seasonal
readings in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. With the high to
our east Monday, winds will shift to the south, and high
temperatures will be a couple of degrees warmer. Overnight lows
tonight and Sunday night will remain a little below seasonal
normals with readings in the lower to middle 50s, but south winds
Monday will give us readings in the upper 50s to around 60
degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Rather straight forward approach for the long term. Ops models and
their ensembles show a general SW H5 flow across the area through
the 4-7 day period. We followed MOS/Ensemble MOS PoPs vs. the Blends
(too high). The lower values make more sense, given the lack of a
frontal focus through the period (we stay warm sector), and with a
lack of significant mid trop support. Only minor perturbations seen
in the broad SW flow aloft. Net result, there is a daily chance of
convection. But confidence in coverage/timing that far out in time
is not well accounted for in the blends. Temperatures will be at or
above normal with more humid conditions. Given the forecast of
modest instability and marginal overall flow, the probability of
strong to severe convection seems rather low. Better chances stay to
our west.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat May 21 2016

Band of MVFR ocnl IFR over SW IN/NW KY will progress south with
improving conditions through the afternoon. Farther west clouds
generally in the 4-7k/ft range give or take with some diurnal
enhancement. This area will progress south as well. Expect gusty
north winds 10-20 kts. After 00z-02z, skies will clear with winds
becoming light. This trend should continue into Sunday morning.
May have to monitor KEVV and KOWB for some light fog late
tonight.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST


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