Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 142117
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
316 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 211 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

A southeastward moving cold front will move into MO tonight. Warm
advection clouds and showers may develop as far southeast as the
mid MS/lower Ohio Valley by Wed morning. The showers will become
fairly widespread Wednesday morning into the early afternoon as
the front reaches southern Illinois and SE Missouri. The showers
will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and
should be clear of the region by early evening with the surface
front off to the east. Rain amounts should generally be less than
a third of an inch. Clearing should then follow as drier air
works its way into the forecast area. Winds will turn more
northerly on Thursday, reinforcing the seasonably chilly air over
the region. Daytime highs should only reach the mid 40s to mid
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 316 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

The extended forecast period will start out with the medium range
models in good agreement regarding the mid level flow and surface
features across the CONUS. However, differences began to show up by
late Fri between the generally clustered CMC/GFS/UKMET and the
ECMWF. This has been a consistent tendency over the last several
days. The ECMWF had a less amplified solution which will affect
embedded shortwave energy south of AK, and downstream ridging. This
will have the effect of slowing up the shortwave, and the attendant
surface low/cold front making its way across the country late in the
week.

We will continue to take a compromise timing approach with this
system for now. Warm advection showers are possible on Fri, followed
by a ramp-up of PoPs especially late Fri night and Sat morning.
Instability in the models appeared very limited until the cold front
moves close to our region. Scattered tstms will probably occur
during the time of highest PoPs. Behind the front, PoPs should drop
off rapidly. Some showers may linger into Saturday evening in the
Pennyrile region of KY.

System instability in the models continue to be questionable, but
plenty of wind shear aloft is forecast. Therefore, some risk of
severe weather continues to exist. Damaging winds should be the
primary hazard. We will have to wait for better model agreement to
be able to predict this potential with more confidence.

In the wake of the front, models agree that the mid level flow will
westerly or northwesterly depending on the model. General high
pressure at the surface will be conducive to dry weather through Day
7. Taking into account the GFS/ECMWF differences, we will forecast
mainly lower 60s/upper 50s for highs Fri/Sat, and lows Sat morning
in the 50s. Relatively cool temps will follow for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

VFR conditions from mid morning through Tuesday night with
mid clouds becoming thicker with time from west to east. Light
winds becoming east-southeast aob 5-6 kts. Winds will turn more
south-southwesterly aft 12z Wed AOB 10 kts as cigs lower to low
VFR in light rain showers.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...GM



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