Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 230620
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
120 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Friday High temps again topped out in the lower half of the 90s
region-wide. Nearly the same synoptic setup is in store for today,
so we`ll bump guidance nos up a degree, maybe two, to score 90s.
Patchy morning fog again too.

We start to get more influence from the upper Low pressure area
that develops and drifts across the lower Mississippi river valley
by Sunday. The return flow around the high shifts our lower trop
to sely-slys, and the height falls associated with the Low should
be just enough to touch off some showers/storms with the diurnal
aid of the pm heating hours, as dew points hover in the mid and
maybe upper 60s in our south. A few more clouds, some spotty
convection, should result in temps topping out a degree or two
lower than the preceding day(s), so we`ll go with around 90 for
Sunday afternoon, with our isolated shower/storm chance
concentrated mainly on our southern counties.

High pressure tightens its grip across the Ohio river valley
Monday, even as Maria works toward it, just off the Southeast
coastline. Our lower Mississippi river valley Low pressure zone
aloft appears to be losing its identity somewhat, although
lowering heights from the High suggest at least a teleconnected
relative Low, even if its identity is masking. The net effect may
be still for an isolated chance, particularly for the SEMO
counties, but at this writing, a dry or at least silent pop
forecast appears to be trending. Monday temps should be similar to
Sunday/top out around 90.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Heading into early next week, an upper level high will have migrated
to the mid Atlantic region with a highly amplified trough in the
western part of the country. Chances for rain will be minimal Monday
and Tuesday and likely tied to heat of the day diurnal air mass
showers and/or thunderstorms. The heat and humidity will remain in
place through Tuesday although dew points do not look as high as
they have been (around 65-67 degrees).

A much advertised cold front will be dissipating as it arrives on
Tuesday night. Could see some rain enter southeast MO before 12Z
Wednesday. The ECMWF really dries up the precipitation as it
approaches yielding mere hundredths of an inch for QPF. The GFS is a
bit more aggressive with the precipitation, especially during the
day on Wednesday. However, even it is pretty scant with the QPF. Not
looking like everyone will see rain with this frontal passage so
will keep POPs rather low for now. It looks like models have come
into better agreement with regards to timing, as the GFS, ECMWF and
Canadian show the best time frame for any precipitation will be
overnight Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday. The moisture
exits the area Wednesday night and we are dry for the rest of the
week.

The main item of conversation though is the much cooler air mass
that will be filtering into the area late in the week behind this
front. Wednesday will obviously be the transition day and be cooler
because of some clouds and possible rainfall. Highs will be in the
lower to mid 80s on Wednesday. However, 850 mb temperatures really
take a nosedive as we head into Thursday and Friday and especially
into the weekend. How quickly the cooler air makes it into the area
still has to be worked out by the models but relief is at least in
sight. We are at least looking at upper 70s for highs for Thursday
and Friday. Cooler readings are expected for the weekend. Much more
comfortable humidity levels will also result with this air mass.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Patchy morning fog offering vsby flight restrictions is again a
possibility today. Otherwise, Visual Flight Rules will be in
effect, including diurnally driven cu bases that develop in the
4-6K FT AGL range.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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