Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 231847
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1247 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Updated aviation forecast discussion for 18Z TAFs.

Cold Cold Canadian air mass has arrived for the Thanksgiving
holiday. Most locations this morning are running in the mid
20s...and KPAH has been down to 23 overnight. Temps will begin to
moderate some today, but will stay in the chilly upper 40s to
lower 50s. Readings will warm more on Friday as south to southwest
winds begin to increase ahead of the next cold front.

That front will slip through the forecast area from nw to se
Friday night. Once again, very little low level moisture or
convergence and the weak mid level short wave will be positively
tilted. Therefore, will leave rain chances out for now along the
front...though cannot rule out some sprinkles here and there.

Drier air will filter back in behind the front Saturday. However,
the air behind the front will not be as chilly as the one today,
and cooler temps will actually lag behind the front. Thus, most
locations will still see at or above normal temps from the mid 50s
to mid 60s Saturday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

he genesis system of the next precipitation maker for the local
area still remains well back into the northern Pacific at this time.
This feature eventually works into the middle/upper Mississippi
Valley Tuesday afternoon.

The blocking effect of the low level southeast U.S. ridge eases late
Monday, allowing for for gradual moisture return into the area on
Tuesday.

The deterministic 00z Thursday GFS and 00z Thursday GFS Ensembles
and the 00z Thursday Canadian (CMCnh) guidance appeared to be too
quick with generating pcpn (warm conveyor belt/isentropically
lifted) well ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon. In
collaboration with surrounding offices and keeping in line with WPC
gridded forecasts, kept rain chances out of Tuesday afternoon,
introducing rain chances for Tuesday night with the cold frontal
passage.

The spatial orientation of first trough/cold front moving through
the area and the second late Wednesday is similar with the 00z
Canadian and the GEFS guidance, and slightly modified with the 00z
ECMWF with a slight weaker solution. WPC is leaning toward the
weaker solution at this time for late Wednesday into Thursday of
next week.

Given the model initialization temperature guidance for late
Wednesday night, there is some potential for a rain/snow mix after
midnight.  Given the weaker solution and lesser forcing, have low
confidence that we will see any measurable wintry mix late Wednesday
night. With collaboration from surrounding offices, made adjustments
to minimize any mention of a wintry mix for now.

Even with the two cold frontal passages, max/min temperatures will
still remain close to seasonal normals for this time of year. Other
than some cloud cover changes, little adjustment was made to the
rest of the extended forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

High pressure centered over the region will bring generally clear
skies and light winds through tonight. Some increase in high
clouds and a slight increase in southerly winds can be expected
Friday morning.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...Smith
AVIATION...GM


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