000
FXUS63 KPAH 191731
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A WARM FRONTAL LIKE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FA MAY HELP FOCUS
DIURNAL INSTABILITY INTO SOME SHOWERS/STORMS THRU THIS
PM/EVENING...AT LEAST ALONG AND EAST OF THE RIDGE THAT IS BUILDING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WE LIKE THE GOING 20S COVERING THIS AND
WILL RETAIN THAT WITH MINIMAL ADJUSTMENT.

AFTERWARDS...THE RIDGE AND RESULTANT SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO PRETTY
MUCH SUPPRESS CONVECTION THRU MONDAY. THE TRENDING OF ALL THE
MODELS IS TO SLOW THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYSTEM/FRONT...SO WE
MADE THE NECESSARY TIMING CHANGES FOR THAT...RESULTING IN A SMALL
INTRO POP MONDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTH/WEST. POPS THEN SPREAD SLOWLY
EASTWARD THE ENSUING 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...PEAKING
TUESDAY NIGHT (INTO WED) IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY. NEW SWODYS1-3 IS
IN LINE WITH THIS THINKING/TIMING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE MUCH ADVERTISED WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL PROGRESS SE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. FAVOR THE TREND TO A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING SCHEME WHICH BRINGS THE SURFACE FRONT NEAR
THE NW BORDER OF THE FA AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
500MB SHORT WAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE 500MB TROUGH AND
PROGRESS NE ACROSS THE FA WEDNESDAY. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTION ON THIS FEATURE AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE/COLD FRONT IMPACT SHOULD MAKE FOR GOOD RAIN CHANCES
EXTENDING INTO WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SE
HALF OF THE FA WILL PROBABLY NOT BE UNTIL WED. SOME THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

THE FRONT STILL APPEARS SLATED TO STALL OUT/WASH OUT JUST SOUTH OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
SOME LINGERING LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE TIME
PERIODS...MAINLY OVER THE S/SE PART OF THE FA.

GEM AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN CANADA FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
KEEP THE AREA IN A NORTHERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL PROVIDE COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

WARM FRONT OVER THE KEVV/KOWB AREAS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED
GROWING CUMULUS CLOUDS APPROACHING THAT AREA. ADDED MENTION OF VCTS
AT BOTH SITES FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CU WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY
VFR. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AROUND SUNSET...THOUGH SOME HIGH CIRRUS IS
POSSIBLE. ONCE AGAIN MONDAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND HAZE MAY FORM
AROUND SUNRISE. HOWEVER...STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN SOMEWHAT HIGHER CIGS AND VSBYS THAN OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...RLS/DH
AVIATION...MY