Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KPAH 222023
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
323 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The mean pattern will undergo amplification with ridging
strengthening over the west U.S. while a trof deepens over the east.
Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic runs
as the ECMWF has come more in line with the GFS and its slightly
stronger east U.S. trof depiction. High pressure over the region
Thursday night into Friday will move off to the east by 12z
Saturday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday night into Friday,
followed by a small chance of convection over the N/NE part of the
CWFA Friday night, in response to a developing warm front, and
subtle mid level energy moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The
pattern will remain unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite
warm and unstable, with minor hard to time weak disturbances moving
ESE across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty. If the models keep with a Sunday night fropa,
we might be able to raise PoPs then. Again all depends on timing.
Kept slight chances going into Monday, just in case future models
back off the depth of the east U.S. trof early next week.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

Model preference is a blend of the 00z ECMWF/GFS deterministic
runs. High pressure over the region Thursday night into Friday
will move off to the east by 12z Saturday. Dry weather is forecast
Thursday night into Friday, followed by a small chance of
convection over the N/NE part of the forecast area Friday night, in
response to a developing warm front, and subtle mid level energy
moving SE from the Upper Midwest. The pattern will remain
unsettled through Sunday night. It will be quite warm and
unstable, with minor, hard to time, weak disturbances moving ESE
across the area. Will keep PoPs in check given timing and
placement uncertainty.

If the models keep with a Sunday afternoon fropa, we might be able
to raise PoPs to likelies at that time. In addition, if the front
comes into the region in the afternoon/early evening, instability
and shear values suggest some potential for strong to severe
storms as a strong H50 short waves digs southeast toward the
region. Again, all depends on timing. Another shot of unseasonably
cool conditions will follow early next week. Quite unusual for
late July.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

The surface wind footprint of the surface ridge axis continues to
shrink to the northeast, making it a little tricky to accommodate
for direction changes through this forecast period. There appears
to be a little more capping of moisture and lift aloft, slowing
the onset of VFR cloud base/ceiling development this afternoon.

This warmer air aloft may have an impact on the KPAH and possibly
the KCGI TAF during the latter period, limiting the chances for
rain before 18z Wednesday. Went more conservative with the rain
coverage in the WFO PAH TAF sites.

Still kept a mention of MIFG late tonight at KCGI, given the
penchant for the development of patchy fog near the observation
site and part of the runway.

Overall, VFR conditions should dominate at all of the TAF sites
for a majority of the period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...Smith





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.