Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250540
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1140 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2015

Updated aviation discussion only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Confidence is increasing that many areas are going to get rained
on tomorrow, especially locations along and east of the MS River.

Clipper system that a couple days ago was progged to travel
southeast through the western Great Lakes and into the upper Ohio
Valley has now constantly trended farther west in subsequent model
runs. It now appears there is decent agreement that the low will
track se much farther sw through the Evansville Tri State region
Sunday. This means we will need to continue to raise POPs with
this forecast package. Good news is that thermal profiles suggest
mainly rain with this system. Amounts should not be heavy, but
thinking is that a good portion of the region could pick up a good
quarter inch or so of rainfall. Enough cold air may work in on the
back side of the low Sunday evening to turn any leftover precip
to light snow or flurries, but not expecting any travel impacts
at this time.

High pressure will make a short visit on Monday, before another
cold front sweeps through and brings colder conditions in for Tue.
No precipitation is expected with the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

Model agreement through Friday is very good, which lends to higher
than average forecast confidence. Confidence begins to drop next
weekend with greater variance in model solutions.

All in all, the extended period will be largely status-quo as a
northwesterly upper level flow pattern persists. However, a couple
of perturbations in this flow pattern will yield increasing sky
cover along with the potential for light precipitation through the
period.

But starting with Wednesday, the flow pattern should modify briefly
as a weak ridge builds into the region ahead of a shortwave trough
approaching from the Central Plains. Southerly low level flow and
ample sunshine will assist temperatures towards the 50 degree mark
by afternoon. Even though the bulk of the precipitation should
remain to our northeast, the passage of the primary wave will yield
a small chance for light rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Winter
weather does not appear to be a factor with temperatures well above
the freezing mark.

Any lingering precipitation will come to an end late Thursday as the
weather system departs. High pressure of Pacific origins will build
into the region on Friday. As a result, temperatures will be 5 to 10
degrees cooler on Friday, but still close to seasonal norms.

The next weather system will impact the region over the weekend as
another chunk of Arctic high pressure dives south from Canada.
Models disagree on how this scenario unfolds. The GFS is certainly
the wettest of the operational models as it indicates more influence
from the subtropical jet and a flatter flow pattern aloft. In
contrast, the ECMWF suite and GFS ensemble mean indicate more
influence from the polar jet and suggest any precipitation with the
initial Arctic surge will be light and short-lived. We tend to favor
this scenario at this time, and will carry only a slight chance of
rain or snow on Saturday for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1140 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

VFR conditions will prevail overnight, then cigs and vsbys will take
a nosedive as a fast-moving low pressure system moves through the
region. As a result, initial srly/swrly winds are expected to veer
to the nw and increase in velocity late in the day. Vsbys will
probably go to IFR for most of the daylight hours Sun in rain and
fog. IFR cigs are more likely across the nrn third of the region,
including the KEVV/KOWB terminals.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...RJP
AVIATION...DB









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