Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 281837
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1237 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1237 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Clearing line working slowly east across MO. Light precip has
stayed south of the area all day. Maybe some drizzle close to the
KY/TN line near KHOP. Expect the decreasing higher cloud cover to
continue working east into the evening. The low level clouds are
forecast to decrease as well, but this is a lower confidence call.

Arctic high pressure will slowly become more expansive east of the
Rockies through mid week. Low amplitude pattern with SW flow to
become more W with time across our region. Variable cloud cover
expected in this progressive pattern, but it should stay dry.
Temperatures will be a bit below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Sfc high pressure will be centered over western Nebraska and
stretching east across most of the CONUS to start out the period.
The high will sink south and then east with time, leaving us dry
through Thursday. In the upper levels, a weak wave travels southeast
toward the area but dampens out with time. The only real result
locally will be colder temperatures for Wednesday. Highs may not
even reach the freezing mark for some locations...after a cold night
on Tuesday night.

But by Thursday, we will see upper heights start to rise as our next
weather system gets its act together in the four corners region. An
upper level low closes off over southern CA Tuesday night and slowly
moves east with time. Moisture begins to increase dramatically after
06Z Fri as the flow becomes southerly/ southwesterly throughout the
column. Chances for precipitation will start late Thursday night and
may start out as a wintry mix on the onset. Soundings from the
GFS/ECMWF indicate the possibility for freezing rain/sleet in the
south with a possibility of snow/sleet further north. With it being
day 5 and a lot can change from now until then, with the storm track
adjusting over the next few days. Will try to make things simple and
convey the possibility of wintry weather for those time periods and
we can fine tune from there.

Things warm up though as we go through the day on Friday, in which
rain should be the precip type by Friday afternoon and evening. The
rain will continue into the evening/overnight hours as the upper low
moves into the central Plains states and then into MO.

By 12Z Saturday, models indicate the main sfc low associated with
the system will be situated just to our north but then rapidly move
northeast throughout the day. This means precipitation will be
ending from west to east throughout the morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1237 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

MVFR cigs will last through late afternoon and early evening. They
are forecast to decrease during the evening. But this is a low
confidence call. Winds will be light north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$




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