000
FXUS63 KPAH 030535
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1135 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION ONLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VERY BUSY AND COMPLICATED SHORT TERM FORECAST SO WILL GO INTO TOO
MUCH DETAIL IN THE INTEREST OF TIME.

AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA FROM THE WEST
STARTING LATE THIS EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AT OR BELOW
FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS...THERE COULD
BE VERY LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS THERE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO ALL RAIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AREA WIDE ALONG WITH SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF OUR CWA.

TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO CHANCE THE PRECIPITATION FROM LIQUID
TO FROZEN STARTING OVER THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL QPF ON WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING SHARPLY THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. THIS
WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SLEET AND/OR SNOW ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW ANOTHER SURGE OF QPF STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...SO THE BEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST STARTING
WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE REGION. AFTER MIDNIGHT
LESSOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE REGION.

EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT FOR MEETING WARNING CRITERIA FOR SNOW FALL
MAY FALL SHORT OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES...WE WILL BE ISSUING
A WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
OUR ENTIRE CWA JUST IN CASE NEW MODEL RUNS SHIFT EVERYTHING A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BUT ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE MAIN
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. HEIGHTS
REMAIN RELATIVELY CONSTANT THROUGH SATURDAY. RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
WEST WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST. ALL MODELS WANT TO KEEP A WEAK
CLOSED LOW OR EVEN OPEN WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THEY ALL HAVE
DIFFERENCES THEN OF HOW TO MOVE THE ENERGY EASTWARD. THE ECMWF WANTS
TO MAKE THIS INTO A BIGGER SYSTEM THAN THE GFE OR GFE ENSEMBLES.

SO THE GFS AND MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES WANT TO KEEP THE AREA DRY
THROUGH PRETTY MUCH NEXT MONDAY. THE ECMWF BRINGS MOISTURE OVER OUR
AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY BUT LOOKS WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS SUGGESTING
JUST RAIN IF IT DOES HAPPEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MVFR DECK WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SW OVERNIGHT. AS WARM ADVECTION
RAMPS UP...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON BY MID MORNING TUE.
RAIN SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD BY MID AFTERNOON...PROBABLY PRODUCING
AVERAGE VSBYS IN THE MVFR RANGE. FROM MID MORNING TO NOON...CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER FROM ERLY
TO EVENTUALLY SWRLY AND INCREASE ABOVE 12 KTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THERE WAS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE THAT
THE WIND SHIFT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE VERY END OF THE CURRENT 24 HR
TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
     NIGHT FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...DB