281
FXUS63 KPAH 111707
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1207 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances ramp up this weekend, especially
  Saturday, when a few strong to severe storms are possible in
  the afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

The introduction of a frontal boundary with upper air support,
albeit weakening, will be enough to touch off thunderstorms
during the heat of the day tmrw...and there is enough juice in
the enviroment to support strong to potentially severe storm
chances. We`ll get plenty unstable with 3-4K MUCAPEs during peak
heating, although we think with the incoming storm chances
ramping up the NBM might be a tad high with its high temps in
the lower 90s...that will depend on the convective cloud canopy
timing. Not alot of overall shear but a little uptick with the
wave and good lapse rates in excess of 7C in the lower 3KM just
as the wave enters the forecast picture should be enough to
offset, and soundings support wet microburst potential. PW`s
still hovering around 2" likewise keep heavy rain/localized
flooding a potentiality as well. A general night-time pause is
expected before another similar round of pops/strong storm
potential Sunday afternoon/evening, although with the models
signaling more convective noise overall during that time frame,
that might nudge down the overall scope potential at least vs
Saturday.

Beyond the stormy weekend chances, we resume a relatively
speaking `seasonal` mid July forecast thereafter, with at least
some daily storm chance as highs range from the upper 80s to
around 90 and dew points hover around 70. Heat of day activity
will offer the best such chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Time/height cross sections indicate some moistening of the
column overall will transpire over the course of the next 24
hours, in advance of an approaching frontal system. This will
ultimately lead to increasing pcpn chances, but that looks to
hold off mainly til after 18Z Saturday. Until then, Visual
Flight Rules are anticipated, with only an isolated shower/storm
or patchy pre dawn fog offering restrictive exceptions.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$