000
FXUS63 KPAH 270828
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
328 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

Biggest forecast challenge comes with a conditional probability of
some severe thunderstorms today...generally along and south of the
OH River. Potent cold front will be surging south into very moist
and unstable regime today. Sfc dew points are already pooling
into the mid 70s across this region...and temperatures by noon
will likely already have surged into the 90s. Cold front should
have progressed south to somewhere near the OH River by early PM.
Two factors that could limit/suppress convective development
include limited deep moisture and thermal capping that may be
present. If storms mange to form though...they will have more than
enough CAPE and bulk shear to work with to reach severe levels.

Cold front should be south of the region by early evening, ending
any storm threat and allowing much cooler and less humid air to
flow into the region overnight. The remainder of the short term
will be dominated by unseasonably cool and dry conditions, which
seem to be returning every week or so. Quite unusual for late July.
In fact, should be within a few degrees of record lows by Tue
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 302 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

By Wednesday, weak sfc high pressure will be settled over the
region, as a large upper trough continues to impact the eastern half
of the nation with an upper level low pinwheeling over eastern
Canada. Even though models hint at minor disturbances in this
northwest flow pattern, moisture will be confined to just the lower
levels on Wednesday and early Thursday, so we should remain dry for
the most part. By Thursday night, a strong wave is progged to move
through the area which might be enough to produce some convection,
especially given the fact that moisture should be increasing aloft
by that time too. Will keep POPS low at this point.

The bigger synoptic change will come at the end of the week and into
the weekend, when an even stronger piece of energy digs down across
the western Great Lakes and carves a deeper trough over our region
and eventually a cut off upper low develops over/near the region
during the weekend sometime, though models are still not agreeing on
timing and location attm. This should bring an increasing chance for
precipitation. This general idea is also supported by the 12z/00Z
GFS precipitation ensembles, which hint at the possibility of
convection with this upper system. No real warm surges expected this
week as H85 temperatures really remain unchanged in the extended as
sfc winds/low level winds remain out of the north/northeast. These
N/NE winds will also keep dewpoints at bay, which means humidity
levels should remain fairly comfortable, especially for late
July/early August.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

A cold frontal boundary is forecast to cross all TAF sites on
Sunday but with a small capping inversion and lack of deep
moisture, it will likely be a dry frontal passage, so did not
mention anything at this time. South southwest winds AOB 10 knots
overnight will pick up out of the west at 12-14 knots gusting to
20-22 knots after 15Z, then veer around to the northwest AOB 10
knots around in the wake of the FROPA.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...JP