Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
904 FXUS64 KLUB 282305 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 505 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 456 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 - A strong cold front will bring breezy conditions to the region Saturday, followed by notably colder weather Sunday and Monday. - Dry weather is expected across the forecast area this weekend into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 Breezy and cool winds will return this afternoon under mostly cloudy skies. A short wave trough diving southeastward from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies will allow a surface cyclone to deepen over eastern Colorado. This will in turn strengthen the surface pressure gradient bringing breezy south to southwesterly winds this afternoon. Healthy low level moisture advection from the Gulf will increase this evening and through the overnight hours. Low stratus will return this evening and overnight with this surge of moisture. This moisture layer is expected to be very shallow but may produce light rainfall over the southern Rolling Plains. Moist isentropic ascent will maximize in the southern Rolling Plains this evening which will be the main driver in the potential for light precipitation this evening. Elsewhere, low stratus will encompass the region but with a shallower layer of moisture and less ascent. Therefore, measurable precipitation is not likely elsewhere. The best we can hope for would be light drizzle. Low level moisture will advect eastward on Saturday morning following the passage of a surface trough. We will see a period of downsloping westerly winds on Saturday before a strong cold front plows through the region. Temperatures could easily have a wide variation on Saturday from the southern Rolling Plains into the southern Texas Panhandle due to this cold front. The front is expected to enter the southern Texas Panhandle by late morning and then through the rest of the region during the early afternoon. Strong pressure rises behind the front will bring breezy winds out of the north persisting through much of the afternoon into the early evening. The wind forecast was bumped up from NBM guidance as blended guidance tends to under forecast wind speeds. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 1142 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A drastic change in the weather pattern will occur this weekend beginning with the strong cold front on Saturday morning/afternoon. The upper level pattern will already be highly amplified by Saturday tapping into some arctic air making its way into the southern CONUS. The arctic air dump will last for only a couple of days or so before warming back to seasonal averages around Tuesday. A rex block will form in the eastern Pacific this weekend keeping the steady flow of cold air for a few days early next week. Temperatures at 850mb will initially drop below 0C on Saturday evening and bottoming out Sunday morning around -3 to -5C as a 1040mb surface ridge moves into the Northern Plains. Temperatures were lowered Sunday and Monday from NBM guidance for the same reason as above with the winds. These temperatures will be some 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages early next week. A reinforcing cold front is forecast to move through Monday afternoon, however, the cold near surface air mass will begin to move eastward on Tuesday. An upper level short wave trough moving southeastward across the Intermountain West on Tuesday will lead to strong surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies. As a result, winds will quickly return to the southwest and become breezy. Another cold front is then expected around Wednesday ahead of another 1040mb surface ridge moving from the Northern Plains into the Midwest. This cold airmass is expected to be more transient than the weekend one with only a brief drop in temperatures on Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 456 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 MVFR CIGs are expected to give way to VFR CIGs by 02Z this evening for LBB and PVW. CIGs at CDS are expected to remain borderline VFR/MVFR through the night before clearing the VFR by late Saturday morning. MVFR to IFR CIGs are possible later tonight at PVW and LBB and should clear to VFR by late Saturday morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...01 LONG TERM....01 AVIATION...51