


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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019 FXUS63 KFGF 011728 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm chances and potential for heavy rain on Independence Day and Night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Mostly clear skies prevail across most of the area this afternoon. Temperatures are in the lower to middle 80s with west to northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph. UPDATE Issued at 644 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 A few mid clouds from SW Manitoba into northeast ND. Otherwise clear. Will have plenty of sunshine today. 06z models show the next short wave and chance for a few showers/t-storms && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...Synopsis... First of July and the forecast coming up thru the next 7 days shows it with scattered chances for thunderstorms for most days, also warm and humid 4th coming up. As if often the case summer time forecasting revolves around timing of individual short waves and interaction with a potentially unstable atmosphere and then figuring out what is the potential outcomes. 500 mb short wave in Alberta....with another weaker one moving into SW Manitoba at 08z Tues. The one in SW Manitoba will bring a band of mid clouds southeast but that is about it. The short wave in Alerta will move east-southeast into SW Manitoba by late today (21-00z) and has bit of strength to it, enough lift with this wave to generate a few showers and t-storms in SW Manitoba. These storms (non-severe) will develop southeast into northeast ND and northwest MN during the evening and overnight. Not high coverage of storms though. Have 20-30 pops for this feature, but may need to increase pops in a few areas far north RRV and NW MN once a preferred development zone is recognized. Otherwise Tuesday will be a warmer day with highs well into the 80s. Wednesday as well, a very warm day with highs mid 80s to near 90. That short wave in SW Manitoba will be in east central MN Wed aftn and should allow the development of scattered storms in parts of central into east central MN. At this time, I feel it would be east or southeast of our forecast area. SPC did have the southeast fcst area in marginal risk day 2, but feel that is a big aggressive from what I see from CAMs. There is another short wave Tues night into Wednesday moving thru SD and then tracking southeast into SW Minnesota Wed aftn. Thursday will see another uptick in temps and the spread of deeper moisture northward into SE ND in the aftn as PWATs increase to over 1.50 inches. 850 mb warm advection occurring and 500 mb heights rising as warmer 700 mb airmass moves in. Potential for some convection Thu night in the warm advection, but low confidence in this. ...Severe Storm and Heavy Rain Potential 4th of July.... Lots more questions arise for what will happen on the 4th severe weather wise. If anything the degree of instability is a bit less than advertised a day or two ago, perhaps due to 13C at 700 mb. PWATs increase to over 2 inches, and with weak lapse rates to past 700 mb feel that severe chances are diminishing and being replaced by heavy rainfall chance. 0-6 km shear is weak 20-25 kts but models do have 30 kts or so in areas where storms can form Friday aftn. Most models have idea of a large area of t-storms late Friday into Friday night...again may be more heavy rain threat vs severe. But no doubt some severe risk remains but low confidence in how widespread. Lingering chances for showers and t-storms Saturday and early next week showing typical summer time chances for daily precipitation as 500 mb flow is more westerly and upper waves move through. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Jul 1 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites through the period. West to northwest winds prevail at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to near 20 knots. Wind gusts diminish this evening, with winds becoming light and variable during the overnight period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Riddle/Lynch DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Lynch