Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170424

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1024 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Issued at 1015 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Rain is occurring across parts of central and western ND
currently...and will be drifting east-northeastward as the night
progresses. ND DOT road temp observations show some upper 20s and
low 30s across the region. Thinking is that all you need is a
little rain to really make things slick. The northward extent of
the warm nose is a little in question, but with the new GFS coming
in with +5 in southern Grand Forks County...confidence is higher
that there will be a lot of melting despite some zippering of the
sounding as it cools to the wet bulb temp and then possibly changes
to snow before ending. Precip should end in the northeast by
sunrise or so. Another band will affect the far southern border
near SD to Wadena around sunrise to noon...but freezing rain less
likely. Will have to be monitored, however.

UPDATE Issued at 713 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Updated forecast to increase precipitation probabilities based on
latest hi-res models. Echoes are expected to get stronger over the
next few hours as frontogenesis area shifts east. If that is the
case, icy roads may become a problem. Will be monitoring it this


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Precip chances and type will be the main forecast challenge for
the period.

Water vapor loop shows southwesterly flow aloft over the Northern
Plains, with a weak shortwave moving through ND into MN ahead of
the main upper trough. Some radar returns have been blossoming
over the far eastern counties in response to this weak shortwave,
but nothing so far has been reaching the ground. Will keep some
low POPs in the far east but think by the time the layer saturates
the shortwave will be mostly east of us. Think the better chances
for precipitation will be later tonight as a decent shortwave
moves into Manitoba and pushes the surface trough into the
Dakotas. There will also be a decent warm layer aloft moving into
the CWA, so there will be the potential for some mixed precip
overnight. The models have been putting out very light QPF,
although some of the high resolution models put out a band of 0.10
plus amounts over northwestern MN. This would fit with some
frontogenesis going on, although how much moisture will be in the
good dendritic growth layer may be in question. Will continue to
keep some light mixed precip of mostly SN/IP although some FZDZ or
FZRA isn`t out of the question if we lose ice aloft. Clouds will
keep sfc temps from falling off too much, but reading will remain
well below freezing.

Tomorrow, the surface trough axis moves off to the east, and there
will be a shift of winds to the northwest. This will bring some
cold air advection, but the worst cold air holds off until after
Friday and there will be some offset by the westerly fetch. Clouds
will keep highs fairly close to the lows so continued with upper
20s northwest to near 40 in the south. Precip from the first
shortwave will be still pushing through the southeastern counties
tomorrow morning, with another round starting to develop over
southwestern ND by afternoon with the next shortwave arriving.
Most activity will be to our south and west but will keep some low
POPs going in Ransom/Sargent counties.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

As an upper trough axis with weak mid level energy moves through
Friday night, some spotty light precipitation in the form of wintry
mix or flurries will remain possible along the SD border Friday
night and again Saturday for the Lake of the Woods area. Otherwise
there is no significant precipitation in the forecast through
Monday. Northwest winds will advect significantly colder air in for
Friday night through Saturday night. This will result in lows in the
single digit to teens Friday night and even colder Saturday night,
with highs only reaching the teens to 20s Saturday.

For Sunday and Monday, expect a warming trend. Ridging aloft will
build in and bring a drier and warmer air mass to the Northern
Plains. Remaining snowpack will limit warming in the north, but
temperatures are generally expected to remain near to slightly above
normal values. By Monday, highs look to range from the upper 20s in
the north to the middle 40s in the south.

Model confidence is pretty good through Monday, but weakens by
Monday night as an upper low moves through the Canadian prairies.
This system will bring the next round of small chances for
precipitation to the area, but more importantly, close proximity to
the upper low will yield a significant cool down from Monday to
Tuesday. Thus, precipitation in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe
would mainly be expected to fall as snow.

Heading into the Thanksgiving holiday travel timeframe, the general
outlook slightly favors above normal temperatures and below normal
precipitation. While there is low confidence in the deterministic
models 6 to 10 days out, there is no strong signal for significant
weather impacts in the forecast area during that period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Ceilings are improving or have improved across much of the region
today. However, BJI will likely still see MVFR cigs for tonight
and into midday tomorrow. The main concern tonight will be the
possibility of -FZRA at DVL, GFK, and TVF. Will be keeping a
close eye on radar echoes as they push across western and central
ND. If FZRA did would likely be at DVL around 03Z-06Z,
GFK 06Z-08Z, and TVF 08Z-10Z.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for NDZ006-007-014-

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for NDZ008-016.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for MNZ004-005-007.



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