Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 122106
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
306 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

A cold dome of Arctic Air will settle across Red River Basin
through the overnight hours. With a freshened snowpack, clear
skies, and light northwesterly winds becoming light and
variable... we can expect temperatures to drop into and 20s below
zero overnight with wind chills vacillating between the 30s to
40s below zero.

Fair skies and light winds will persist through the day forenoon
on Saturday, with winds starting to turn from the south and
increase a bit through Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will
struggle up to the single digits below zero across most of the
area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 257 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Models continue showing general agreement through the extended
period and will keep a blended soln for this forecast package...with
the main impact being slightly modified temperatures on Sunday to
start the period...with a secondary arctic blast for the first part
of next week.

For Saturday night...arctic high pressure shifts south as the upper
level trough begins pushing south and east. Weak upper ridge
amplification over the high plains will provide slight relief from
the bitter cold temperatures for Sunday...although values will
remain below normal. Another upper level trof will dig south
bringing a second shot of arctic air from Sunday night into
Tuesday...before shifting farther southeast.

By Tuesday night into Wednesday...a significant shift in the upper
level pattern is anticipated. Upper level ridge amplification over
the intermountain west and across the northern plains will result in
return flow and warm advection across the area...as the arctic high
shifts into the Ohio valley and across the mid-Atlantic states.
Thus...will see much warmer temperatures return to the area...with
high temperatures rebounding into the upper 20s to low 30s.

The best chances for precipitation will be during the day
Sunday...with little precipitation forecast beyond through the rest
of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Updated at 305 PM CST Fri Jan 12 2018

Expect fair skies and a light westerly breeze throughout the
remainder of today and much of Saturday. Expect Extreme Cold
temperatures through Saturday.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Saturday
     for NDZ052-053.

     Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Saturday
     for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-054.

MN...Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ029>032-040.

     Wind Chill Warning from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM CST Saturday
     for MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027-028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gust
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Gust



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