000
FXUS63 KFGF 290442
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE CU HAS DISSIPATED AS EXPECTED...AND WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. MIN TEMPS WILL BE THE MAIN UPDATE CONCERN...AND CURRENT
FORECAST SHOULD BE IN THE BALLPARK (CONSIDERING CURRENT DEW POINT
VALUES).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS MAINLY TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH NO REAL MODEL PREFERENCES.

INTO MIDWEEK REGION WILL REMAIN IN MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. NO REAL THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE
CHANGES SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE A BIT BLO SEASONAL
AVERAGES. WITH SKC...RELATIVELY COOL COLUMN AND DEWPOINTS IN 50S
NIGHTS WILL BE COMFORTABLE.  ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 800-700 MB
LAYER FOR SCT-BKN AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

COLUMN WARMS SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD GET TEMPERATURES
BACK UP CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY LOW THURSDAY MAY BRING A
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION TO THE FAR NE FA SO MAINTAINED LOW POPS.
REMAINDER OF THE FA WILL SEE PERSISTENT CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF
SOLAR AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY LOOK FOR THE STAGNANT WESTERN RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE
WILL TRY TO INCH A BIT EASTWARD. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER OVER THE FA. ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SAG INTO
THE NORTH. WILL KEEP SOME LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE. TEMPS
SHOULD STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR CU DEVELOPMENT LATE
TUESDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GODON/VOELKER
AVIATION...TG