000
FXUS63 KFGF 242053
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED TO
PUSH BACK WESTWARD WHERE THIS BAND WILL FALL AND IT APPEARS THAT
SOME OF THE 18Z GUIDANCE MAY BE EVEN LIGHTER WITH THE EXPECTED
AMOUNTS. AS OF MID AFTERNOON MOST OF THE LIGHT PCPN WAS FALLING
BETWEEN KMOT AND KJMS AND WAS SLIDING SE. SOME OF THIS LIGHT PCPN
DID EXTEND INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA. LOOKING AT SFC TEMPS...THEY
WERE 30F AT KDVL AND 32F AT KJMS AND 37F AT GWINNER. SFC OBS WERE
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT CARRINGTON AND FZDZ/LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS
WITH THE WARMEST SFC AIR AT GWINNER (ALTHOUGH NO PCPN YET). WITH
THE CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ANY
MIX ACROSS THE SW FA WILL BE BRIEF. 18Z NAM COMING IN EVEN WEAKER
WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH LESS THAN INCH ACROSS THE WEST
AND A DUSTING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALL SAID THIS EVENT
IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SOME
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE SE. ANOTHER WEAK LIGHT
SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST FA BEGINNING SUN
NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PRETTY DECENT
WARMING OCCURS AGAIN. THEREFORE COULD EASILY SEE RISING TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WILL LINGER THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST FA ON MONDAY.
WEST TO NW WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD AIR MOVING BACK
IN. KEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS. STAYS QUIET MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. MUCH LIGHTER SFC WINDS ON TUE MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A LITTLE BUT MORE LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY
WILL STICK WITH MILD TEMPS INTO TUE.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL START
OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW WED
NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT SAT...THAT COULD
MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO FALL INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE WITH SNOW MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST...AND SOME FOG AND LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST.
E/NE WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFT MORE
NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD JUST BRUSH
KFAR...KDVL...WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...DK