000
FXUS63 KFGF 212016
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PCPN CHANCES STARTING TUE NIGHT.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH RUN REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM SO FORECAST CONTINUITY PRETTY GOOD OVERALL. AS OF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD CONTINUED TO THIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN RATHER GUSTY BUT WITH SFC
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE FA THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN FA TOWARD TUE MORNING BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
COOL MORNING WITH TEMPS ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. SHOULD SEE
QUITE A BIT OF SUN ON TUE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MN FA WITH A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER ND. STRONG 850MB WARM ADVECTION
AND WIND GET GOING TUE NIGHT. MODELS OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE MAIN AXIS
OF PCPN WITH THE 12Z GFS MORE EAST-WEST AND FURTHEST EAST. ITS
850MB WINDS ARE MORE FRAGMENTED WITH ONE SEGMENT POINTING INTO
SOUTHEAST ND BY 12Z WED. OTHER MODELS HAVE THE WINDS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST WITH THE MAIN PCPN BAND SETTING UP IN THAT PATTERN.
LIKE THIS IDEA FOR NOW AS IT DOES MATCH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING. INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAKER ON THE 12Z RUNS SO WILL KEEP
THINGS MOSTLY AS SHOWERS FOR NOW AND SEE IF LATER RUNS CHANGE THIS
IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STILL CONTINUE WITH THE SHOWERS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT...GRADUALLY
PUSHING THEM FROM EASTERN ND INTO THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF MN.
LOOKS QUITE WINDY ON WED WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS. SOME DRYING MAY
WORK INTO THE FA ON THU MORNING BUT THIS LOOKS TO FILL BACK IN
WITH SHOWERS BY THU AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS TOTAL PCPN AMOUNTS STILL
LOOKING AT A HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE HEAVIER BAND.

FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING CLOSE AGREEMENT
ON TRANSITION FROM THE MIDWEEK LARGE SCALE...MOIST NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO A PREDOMINANTLY DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND... WITH FRIDAY MORNING AS THE TRANSITION
PERIOD. THUS KEPT A FAIRLY LOW /CHC/ POP AND LOW QPF MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FRIDAY PM THROUGH MONDAY... THE NP
AREA APPEARS STUCK UNDER AN H5 OMEGA BLOCK WITH DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. IF THIS HOLDS...
AT THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT TYPICALLY MEANS SOME VERY LOW DEW POINTS
AND VERY DRY AIR IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
RAISE/DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON... WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR IN NORTHWEST MN BY EVENING. ELSE... FEW CLOUDS IN EASTERN ND
WILL GIVE RISE TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/GUST
AVIATION...GUST