Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 170858

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
358 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Short wave and associated surface low will track across SD today.
Model guidance in good agreement in developing a band of rain
across the south half of the FA in zone of frontogenetic forcing
aided by exit region of upper jet. Just where this band sets up
across the south will determine where higher pops will eventually
be but for now will maintain chance pops. Maximum temperatures
should be fairly uniform with clouds across the south with warmer
thermal profiles but more sun over the cooler north.

Rain band will continue this evening until forcing diminishes
after midnight. Coolest temperatures tonight will be across the
far north having better chance of clearing with clouds holding
temperatures up across the south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Will maintain some low end pops Tuesday as weak wave crosses the
region although confidence not very high. Column continues to
gradually cool resulting in temperatures closer to average.

Midweek looks quiet with temperatures dropping a bit blo average.

Long wave trough over the Gulf of AK weakens and shifts a little
east through the period. Downstream long wave ridge and trough
amplify a bit through day 5 over western North America and eastern
North America and shift a bit to the east by the end of the period.

The GFS was faster than the ECMWF through the period. The ECMWF was
trending farther south while the GFS was vacillating around. Will
blend the models.

Little change to high temperatures on Thu. Fri, Sat and Sun highs
were increased a degree or two from yesterdays forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Main issue is Bemidji TAF site as potential still there for
lowering clouds into the MVFR range. Though short range models
have backed off on idea of IFR cigs. Otherwise VFR as a bit drier
west-southwest flow moves in overnight. The MVFR cigs should exit
Bemidji area mid Monday morning. Went with some light fog at
Bemidji but otherwise none expected. Winds southerly Bemidji
before turning west-southwest...while winds west-southwest other
areas into Monday 5 to 15 kts.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.