000
FXUS63 KFGF 011547
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

NO UPDATE NEEDED THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND FOLLOWING CFP ON
TUESDAY. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NEXT SHORT WAVE ALONG A N MB/S SASK/MT LINE WILL DROP THROUGH THE
FA TODAY. NOT MUCH HAPPENING UPSTREAM AND WITH HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS MAINLY DRY WILL CONTINUE WITH JUST MENTION OF FLURRIES.
FAIRLY NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND STARTING OUT A BIT COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER.

SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWING WEAK TROUGH WILL DROP TO THE N/MID MISS
VALLEY BY MORNING. THIS SHOULD SET UP WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW
AFT MIDNIGHT WHICH WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE DROP.

BRISK/WINDY CONDITIONS MONDAY IN RETURN FLOW. WARM ADVECTION AND
AT LEAST PARTIAL SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH
AVERAGE VALUES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE FA MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
MODELS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH SNOW FALL POTENTIAL. WILL LIKELY SEE A
QUICK BAND OF -SN ALONG THE FRONT. AGAIN WILL SEE A STRONG THERMAL
CONTRAST ACROSS THE FA WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NW.
COULD ALSO SEE SOME AREAS OF BLSN ACROSS THE N.

WINDY DAY TUESDAY WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION WILL BE EFFICIENT IN MIXING STRONGER WINDS THROUGH MIXED
LAYER. CURRENTLY APPEARS 30 TO 40 KTS TO MIX THROUGH DEEPENING MIXED
LAYER. STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
THE SW PORTION OF THE FA. BLSN MODEL DOES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME
BLSN AND HAVE IN THE FCST. NORTHERN EDGE OF SNOW SHIELD FROM
STRONGER SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH CLOSE TO THE ND/SD/MN BORDER AREA AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING AT SOME
CLOUD COVER AND WITH MIXING OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
GET TOO DRASTIC BUT WILL LIKELY NEED W CHILL HEADLINES.

THE MID WEEK TO WEEKEND PERIOD WILL FEATURE MORE ARCTIC COLD TO
START WITH USUAL SUSPECTS OF MINUS 25 TYPE 850 MB TEMPS AND SUB 500
DM THICKNESSES. NW WINDS OF 15 KTS OR BETTER WILL EASE BY WED NIGHT.
HIGH WILL SINK TO THE MIDWEST BY THUR ALLOWING A SW SURFACE WIND TO
DEVELOP WITH ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION BOOSTING TEMPS BACK INTO
THE 20S. MORE OF THE SAME FRIDAY WITH EVEN MILDER TEMPS AS A
RELATIVELY WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHES. EXPECT PASSAGE TO BE DRY WITH
MORE OF A WIND SHIFT THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING RELATIVELY SHALLOW MOIST LAYER
APPROACHING WITH LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. UPSTREAM METARS
SHOWING SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS/FLURRIES. INCLUDED IN THE TAFS BUT
WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED AND SPOTTY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...WJB/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER