Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 231751
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The 1130 am SPC day 1 outlook did not change for our FA, but they
did mention capping that may limit the coverage of any late
afternoon or early evening convection. Still have a decent low
level jet and moisture surge up into east central ND, and the
latest regional radar loop shows a few developing cells in this
area. These are quickly lifting NNE, so will continue to monitor
them. High res models did not pick up on these cells, but they
continue to show cells developing along the cold front as it
moves into the Red River Valley around 5 to 6 pm. Then they show
spotty showers and tstms continuing to progress eastward into the
northwest quarter of MN during the evening. Some of these cells
could be strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

small cluster of elevated storms formed nr carrington ND last
evening moved east-northeast to near Mayville then a storm within
that cluster took off and moved nearly due north into west side of
grand forks producing a long period of quarter to golf ball hail.

Will maintain isold tstm coverage for this thru 12z-13z into the
far nrn RRV. Storm formed in area of quite strong 850 mb moisture
advection which is shown nicely on SPC meso page.

for the balance of this morning once the current storm is gone it
should be quiet. Low pressure in north central ND and cold front
will enter DVL basin this morning and into the RRV mid to late
aftn. Initially not much will form until late aftn as front
encounters deeper moisture in srn RRV into NW MN. Thus pops
highest this area early evening.

No one meso model has been doing well. HRRR does keep some
development this aftn nr GFK and other action northeast of DVL and
then develops more as front moves east into W MN. That goes along
with fcst. Best bulk shear is right near or just behind front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 352 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

T-storm changes exits eastern fcst late tonight/early Wednesday.
Then a break before cooler air/stratocu and risk of showers wrap
back southeast into nrn 1/2 of fcst area late Wednesday into
Thursday.

Friday to Monday...Southwest flow aloft will develop and bring
chances for convection for the period. timing the waves will be a
challenge. Current indications are that Friday afternoon into
Saturday and again Sunday night into Monday will be times where
shower activity is more probable. Temperatures will be in the mid
70s to around 80 for the weekend...spot on the normal for the end of
August in the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Will continue to see gusty south winds ahead of the cold front.
KDVL may even see some gusty west-northwest winds behind the front
during the late afternoon and early evening. Models continue to
show scattered shower and tstm development along the cold front,
as it moves into the Red River Valley in the 5 to 6 pm time frame.
These will continue to hold together as they move into NW MN
during the evening. After these pass off to the east, still expect
west to NW winds and decreasing clouds.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Riddle
LONG TERM...JK/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon


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