000
FXUS63 KFGF 260114
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
714 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

MAIN ISSUE TONIGHT IS HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL REACH THE
GROUND. ECHOES ON RADAR MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FROM MANITOBA INTO
NE ND. BUT ALSO QUITE THE DRY LAYER NR 850 MB..SO QUITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS
MAKES DETERMINING WHAT IS REACHING THE GROUND VS NOT VIA RADAR
QUITE DIFFICULT. SO FAR UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA BRANDON HAS HAD
NOTHING...AND NO OTHER REPORTS. BUT SUSPECT SOME FLURRIES AT LEAST
IN A FEW SPOTS AS 25DBZ ECHO BAND MOVING SOUTHEAST. RAP HAS BACKED
OFF ON MUCH IN ERN ND NOW TONIGHT....HRRR HAS ACTIVITY AT 00Z IN
SE SASK NR ESTEVAN AND MOVES IT SOUTHEAST BUT PROBLEM IS NO
ECHOES IN THAT AREA NOW. COORD WITH BIS...LEFT POPS PRETTY MUCH
ALONE THIS EVE BUT DID DRY THINGS OUT AFTER 06Z IN DVL BASIN AS
ANY THREAT OF PRECIP MOVES SOUTHEAST. ALSO UPSTREAM OBS IN
MANITOBA SUGGEST MOST OF THE SNOW IS QUITE FAR NORTH AND LATEST
RAP HAS MOST OF THE SNOW FALLING JUST EAST OF MINNESOTA PART OF
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT THEN TEMPS. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT...WITH JUST SOME SLIGHT TIMING
DIFFERENCES.

FOR TONIGHT...ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS AND A SPEED MAX
WILL MOVE IN FAST NW FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST FA...WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...SOME FREEZING RAIN OR A MIX OF
FREEZING RAIN/SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE INTRODUCED POPS FOR THIS
AND MENTIONED IN THE UPDATED WEATHER STORY. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT FOR ICING OVERNIGHT...EVEN WITH TEMPS RISING
TO NEAR FREEZING LATE WITH INCREASING S/SW WINDS SHIFTING WEST LATE.

ON MONDAY...SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN NW MN DURING
THE MORNING...OTHERWISE EXPECT A MILD AND DRY DAY WITH W/NW WINDS
INCREASING INTO THE BREEZY CATEGORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

ON TUE...EXPECT ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY WITH THE WARM WEATHER
CONTINUING. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO AROUND 40 WEST INTO THE MID 30S
ELSEWHERE. IF THERE IS MORE INSOLATION THAN CURRENTLY
PROGGED...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN WARMER.

ON WED...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHER
AREAS. WE CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE GIVEN THE WARM
ENVIRONMENT...BUT FOR NOW WON/T MENTION BUT MONITOR THREAT. IT
WILL BE MILD WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT
IN NORTHERN AREAS.

FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL
START OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT
SNOW WED NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT
SAT...THAT COULD MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

A TOUGH ONE TONIGHT. MVFR CIGS PRESENT IN WARM ADV ZONE OVER FAR
ERN ND/RRV. SEEING THOUGH SOME CLEARING OF MVFR DECK REPLACED BY
MID CLOUD INTO DVL BASIN AND JAMESTOWN. WITH LOW MOVING WELL NORTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA VFR CLOUDS REPLACING MVFR CLOUDS MAY WELL
CONTINUE. DID PLAY IT WORSE IN THE TAFS...BUT AFTER SEEING
UPSTREAM OBS IN MANITOBA DO THE SAME THING (DAUPHIN, BRANDON)
CONFIDENCE A BIT HIGHER THAN A TREND TO A VFR DECK WILL OCCUR INTO
GFK-FAR-TVF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. SOUTH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING TONIGHT AND TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY 15-25 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE