Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280228
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
928 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WE WILL TONE DOWN POPS OVERNIGHT A BIT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. THE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WILL BE MORE PREVALENT IN THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL LIQUID WITH A WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER AND LOWEST 1000FT. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES
NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

TONIGHT-TUESDAY...UPPER LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY 06Z. THIS WILL PLACE THE STRONGEST
FORCING ACROSS NW MINNESOTA...AND EASTWARD THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN WILL OCCUR HERE (AND
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY). HEAVIEST QPF WILL BE EAST OF THIS
FA...BUT GENERALLY COULD SEE 0.10 TO 0.40 INCHES. THE SURFACE TO
900MB LAYER REMAINS ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ALL
LIQUID (ALTHOUGH A FEW SNOW FLAKES MAY APPROACH THE SURFACE). KEPT
THE ISOLD-SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WITHIN
THE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH FORCING WEAKENS
AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE TOO MUCH. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SNOW/RAIN
MIX IN THIS PRECIP AREA...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. ENTIRE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST ON TUESDAY...LEAVING THIS AREA WITH A
WINDY AND COOL DAY. DEFORMATION ZONE WILL LINGER ACROSS NW MN WITH
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING (AND ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY).

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH
ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKY. MIN TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON THIS CLEARING
LINE...WITH VALUES EXPECTED INTO THE LOW-MID 20S WHERE CLEARING
OCCURS...AND LOW-MID 30S WHERE CLOUDS REMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT AFFECTS
THE REGION WED/WED EVENING. AIRMASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...AND
THE UPPER WAVE APPEARS WEAK. THUS...POSSIBLY ONLY CLOUD COVER WILL
RESULT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT ISOLD SHOWERS BASED ON
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES.

THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND FAVORED A
BLENDED SOLN ATTM. NW FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WITH THE
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS. DRIER AIR FROM CANADA
IN NE FLOW AT THE SFC...ALONG WITH SUBSIDENCE...WILL KEEP SKIES
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THE SFC
HIGH WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH RETURN FLOW AND WARMER TEMPS SPREADING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA...AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...DRY IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR PCPN BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM NW TO SE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. W/NW WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND
GUST OVER 30KT BY TUE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH ABOUT
35KT TO MIX UP THROUGH 900 MB.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPKINS
AVIATION...DK






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