Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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580
FXUS63 KFGF 042036
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
236 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POTENTIAL HIGH WIND/BLOWING SNOW EVENT
ON SUNDAY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 36HR WITH SOME
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS SHOWING UP AROUND
48HR. THE ECMWF IS VERY PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SUNDAY SYSTEM WITH
THE NAM MUCH SLOWER AT IT CLOSES OFF THE UPPER LOW. THE GFS AT
THIS POINT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE.

FOR TONIGHT...CLOUD TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AND THERE
SHOULD BE A FEW BREAKS. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE CLOUDS RETURN LATER
TONIGHT FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR WEST LATE AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE.

ON FRIDAY...A MODERATE BAND OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTH...ALONG WITH DEEP SATURATION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
OF UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I 94
CORRIDOR. WE HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...ANY SNOW SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE EAST BY 00Z SAT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

ON SATURDAY...WE SHOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR AND DRY SLOT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. IF WE GET SOME INSOLATION...TEMPS COULD BE EVEN
WARMER. WE ARE STILL FORECASTING TEMPS INTO THE 20S FAR EAST AND
LOW/MID 30S MOST AREAS. THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW IN THE NORTH AND
EAST.

FOR SAT NIGHT...THE STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND
SFC WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY RISE SAT
NIGHT WITH WAA AND WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP IN THE SOUTH AND PERHAPS
WEST...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST THEN SPREAD
QUICKLY INTO THE VALLEY BY 18Z SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE AT LEAST 50KT
TO MIX FROM 850MB WITH A STRONG ADIABATIC LAYER AND SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION. THIS WILL COUPLE WITH WRAPAROUND SNOW AND PRODUCE AT
LEAST SOME BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY ISSUES IN OPEN COUNTRY.
TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL BY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A WARM
START PROBABLY AROUND 32. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WIND/BLOWING SNOW
THREAT WITH AN SPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH TRAVEL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED WEST COAST RIDGE AND EAST COAST TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING NW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA WITH OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS OUTSIDE SOME
POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW WITH ANY WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEMS...ONE
POSSIBLY ON THURSDAY. THE DIFFICULT...LESS CERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE TEMPS AS PLACEMENT OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE
WARMER AIR TO THE WEST AND COLDER AIR TO THE EAST WILL DETERMINE THE
MAX AND MIN FOR THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE COLD DAY APPEARS TO BE
TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHS IN THE LOW TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS...OTHER
DAYS HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S...A BIT COLDER THAN THIS
PAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MVFR CIGS AND FLURRIES ARE SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. EXPECTING
THE TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS
DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. BAND OF SNOW TOMORROW MORNING WITH
FARGO TAF SITE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED WITH REDUCED VSBYS AND
LOWEST CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...JK/DK
AVIATION...JK



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