Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251751 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Shortwave moving through the Highway 200 corridor will prompt some
isolated showers and storms this afternoon in areas along/south
of the corridor. Decreased temps a bit in west central Minnesota
due to low level clouds present, which should lift and begin to
scatter a bit in the mid to late afternoon. Cannot rule out
isolated severe storms in southeast North Dakota and west central
Minnesota this evening, but think threat is very limited this
afternoon with capping solidly in place and front moving southeast
through the area.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A couple of areas to monitor for convection in the am hours, both
partially associated with low level jets. First area is along the
international border over the nw FA ahead of approaching cold
front. High resolution model and CAM guidance in good agreement in
showing little additional development as wave lifts into Canada
and high amounts of CIN across the fa. Based on model guidance
will keep some low pops along the border. Next area over the
ND/SD/MN border region associated with exit region of stronger low
level jet convergence. With the jet not expected to lift north
will be limiting any pops to the far se corner and current radar
trends are even farther south.

Pops will continue to be a challenge later this afternoon along
ahead of cold front. Current guidance indicating boundary to be
over the far e-se FA at prime heating. CIN will continue to be an
issue for timing of convective initiation. Also, strongest low
level convergence which may be enough to break cap will be over
eastern SD into s MN. So overall not a great deal of confidence on
pop and severe coverage across the south and will maintain chance
pops from late afternoon into the evening. Convection which does
get going should gradually sag southward during the mid/late
evening hours. Temperatures will hinge on the degree of solar,
however with warm column most areas should be able to climb well
into the 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Quiet period ahead Wed-Thu as high pressure dominates.
Temperatures look to be right at seasonal averages.

Pattern amplifies slightly with a long wave ridge building a little
over western North America. Long wave trough deepens slightly over
eastern North America. Pattern remains split with northern stream over
north and east Canada and southern stream over southwest Canada and
the northeast US. Transition to more of a northwest flow aloft this

The GFS was a faster solution for most of the period. The ECMWF
became the faster solution near the end of the period. Both the
ECMWF and the GFS have been trending slower and farther south over
the last couple model runs. Cold front is expected to move through

Little change to high temperatures on Fri. High temps were decreased
one or two degrees for Sat, Sun, and Mon from yesterdays run.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

MVFR cigs in west central Minnesota will lift this afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected through the period, despite some brief
isolated showers and storms this afternoon and evening south of
GFK/BJI. Winds will shift from south to north this afternoon and
evening as a front moves through.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...BP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.