Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 222031
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
331 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT EASTERN MN THIS EVENING...LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LEFT IN THE OFFING. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DIG INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL FLOW AND BANDED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ERN ND BY
THROUGH EARLY MORNING... SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BOTH
GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE KEEP SURFACE BASED AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FAIRLY LOW FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT HAVE CHOSEN TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO THESE PERIODS
AS SOME MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD BE EXPECTED UNDER THESE
SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS.

OTHERWISE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON
OVERALL TIMING OF WARM FRONTAL PRECIP AND SYSTEM EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH THE MAIN SYSTEM ENERGY SPLITTING TO
PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW DROPPING INTO NERN NE WHILE A SECONDARY LOW
OCCLUDES INTO NCNTRL ND.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON SYSTEM EVOLUTION ON
THURSDAY... WITH THE GFS FORMING A SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER FROM NRN IA INTO SERN MN. NAM AND ECMWF KEEP A
SHALLOWER TROF THROUGH THIS AREA... WITH A CLOSED LOW FORMING INTO
CENTRAL WI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE UPSHOT IS SOME DRY SLOT
FORMATION IS TO BE EXPECTED INTO SERN AND ECNTRL ND ON THURSDAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN TO HAND ON ACROSS NERN ND AND MUCH OF
MINNESOTA. BY FRIDAY MORNING...RAIN CLOUD BE MIXED WITH SNOW ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES...THOUGH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD RAGE FROM ONE HALF
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SERN ND AND FROM THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO AN INCH OR MORE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

DEPARTING SYSTEM SATURDAY SHOULD PROVIDE FOR ONE DRY DAY BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS.  COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE NORTHEAST
OVER THE WEEKEND...FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH
WARMER TEMPS AND RAIN.  THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF NOW BOTH TENDING
TOWARD COLDER AIR AT 850 MB ON WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WOULD FAVOR THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT FEATURING MORE SNOW THAN WE
WOULD BARGAIN FOR.  AT THIS POINT WILL SETTLE FOR THE ALLBLEND
THERMAL ELEMENTS OF HIGHS IN THE 40S...THUS RESTRICTING THE SNOW
MENTION TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM DT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO.  LOW PRESSURE HEADING INTO HIGH PLAINS EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEAST BREEZE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  -RA MENTION FOR ALL BUT KBJI
BY THAT TIME.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/WJB
AVIATION...WJB






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