Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 242053
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
253 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS -SN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OVERALL MODELS...AT LEAST THE GFS...HAVE TRENDED FARTHER EAST
WITH SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE/ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER
JET TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO
ECMWF/GEM SOLUTIONS WHICH BRING UP TO AN INCH OR SO OF LIGHT SNOW
TO THE FAR W-S FA. SINCE THE LATER MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT
WITH THIS HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. BEST POTENTIAL BASED ON
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 285K SURFACE WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AND DEPENDENT ON HOW
FAR EAST CLOUDS GET. PRETTY SURE SW THIRD WILL BE BE IN THE CLOUDS
MOST OF THE NIGHT HOLDING TEMPERATURES UP AND THE FAR NE WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR FOR THE COLDEST READINGS. IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN WHICH
MAY NEED MOST ADJUSTMENT. WITH COLDEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NE
AND LIGHT MIXING WIND CHILL CRITERIA WILL BE MET AND HAVE ISSUED
AN ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY.

-SN WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WED AM OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A
GENERAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS. EVEN WITH COLD ADVECTION LATE FEB
SOLAR AND LACK OF DEEPER SNOW COVER HAS ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
AND WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST RECOVERY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WITH HIGH CENTER INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL ND WILL BE ENOUGH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND COMBINING WITH COLD TEMPERATURES
FOR WIND CHILL HEADLINES LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

THURSDAY WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE REGION. WITH COLD
START SOLAR SHOULD ALLOW RECOVERY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT THURSDAY HOWEVER COLUMN NOT QUITE AS COLD AND
WEAK WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO
FAR.

WARM ADVECTION/RETURN FLOW FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED GRADUAL
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE
COOL AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD REINFORCING
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE MEAN JET POSITION SHIFTING FARTHER
SOUTH...THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN MAINLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT BY SUN EVENING...AND RETURN FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH
TEMPS TO RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR AVIATION WILL BE CIGS AND WIND AS SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE REGION. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...BUT SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY. ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBY ARE OCCURRING IN
THE ERN ZONES WITH STRONGER WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
FAIRLY TIGHT...AND LOOSE SNOW GETS BLOWN AROUND. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
WINDS TO SLACKEN AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OVER
THE FA...AND VSBY IMPROVES. SUBSIDENCE WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
HELP SCATTER SKIES AND SPREAD VFR CIGS ACROSS THE AREA.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPKINS





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