Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 141235

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Issued at 635 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

No changes.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

Snow and blowing snow with the cold front tonight/tomorrow morning
will be the main challenges for the period.

Mild temperatures and quiet weather will continue for much of
today as near zonal flow become southwesterly ahead of the next
upper trough. The surface low tracking across southern Canada will
allow southwest winds to shift from the southwest to the west, and
eventually northwest late in the day. There will be thermal
ridging for much of the day ahead of tonight`s cold front and with
a mild start we should manage to climb into the 30s across the CWA
even with increasing clouds. Some 40s are even possible in the
southwest counties.

Tonight, the cold front will begin to move into the northwestern
counties during the evening, pushing further south and east
throughout the night. The models are in fairly good agreement on
snow along and behind the cold front. There is some weak 850mb
frontogenesis along with the synoptic scale lift, but at this
point banding potential looks minor and think the 00Z NAM is
overdone on snow amounts. Other deterministic models have
accumulations in the 1 to 3 inch range around the Highway 2
corridor and this seems reasonable. Think the higher impact will
be increasing north winds behind the front and blowing snow. 925mb
winds are not horrible, generally around 25 to 30 kts but there
will be a decent amount of cold air advection which often boosts
our winds above guidance. Have sustained winds late tonight into
Thursday morning in the 15 to 20 kt range but that may have to be
bumped up a bit later on. Patchy to areas of blowing snow will be
possible with the winds and falling snow. Temps will be dropping
with the passage of the cold front, and Thursday could see some
non-diurnal curves. Some advisory level wind chills will be
possible again in the north Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

00Z Fri-12Z Sat

Northwest flow aloft continues across the region for the most part.
Split flow continues over North America with northern stream over
southern Canada/Northern Plains and the southern stream over the
Pacific Northwest to the Central plains.

Upper level low pressure over Hudson Bay will have short waves
rotate around the system. Arctic air will have already dumped into
the Northern Plains Thu night. The arctic air will shift east Fri.
Another short wave will approach the area Fri night and cooler air
will again move out of Canada but not as cold as Thursdays cold


Longwave upper level low pressure system remains over northern
Hudson Bay and does weaken through the period. Longwave upper level
ridge remains over the Caribbean and from AK south to the eastern
Pacific with little change. The ECMWF was the faster solution
through the period.

Flow aloft becomes more split as an upper trough over the Pacific
Northwest on Sat drops into the Desert Southwest. Flow transitions
to southwest flow aloft by Mon and Tue. However continued short
waves rotating around northern system will allow arctic air to edge
into the area yet on Mon and Tue.

High temperatures for Sat were decreased by one to three degrees.
Highs for Sun, Mon, and Tue were decreased by one or two degrees
from yesterdays forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2018

High and mid level clouds have moved into the northern forecast
area, with all TAF sites VFR. These conditions will remain through
the first half of the TAF period, with some lower stratus moving
in behind a cold front tonight and tomorrow. Ceilings in the MVFR
to IFR range will be possible, and there will be some light snow
along and behind the front. Some blowing snow is also possible,
reducing visibilities further. For now will keep vis in the 1 to
2SM range at the lowest with -SN and BLSN, mainly at the northern
and western TAF sites with impacts lower at KFAR and KBJI. Winds
today will stay from the southwest at around 12 kts then shift to
the west late in the afternoon or evening. Winds will come around
to the north to northwest behind the cold front at 15 to 20 kts
with higher gusts not out of the question.




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