Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 101427
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
927 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN PART OF ND CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A WEAKENING TREND. NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH AT THIS POINT. THINK THAT THERE WILL BE
NOT MUCH MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AFTER 21Z. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS...INCLUDING EXTENDING SOME LOW POPS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
SOME FURTHER NORTHWARD EXTENT WITH THIS INITIAL ROUND AND NOT JUST
THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

NO CHANGES AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

THE GEM WAS THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST WITH THE
GFS AND NAM COMPROMISES. WILL BLEND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE
ECMWF AND THE GFS.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN
ALTA. ALSO A SHORT WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MT. MT SHORT
WAVE/JET STREAK FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN ND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET TO RESPOND OVER SD AND NE. INCREASED POPS A
BIT OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE WEST FOR LATE TONIGHT WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT
WAVE. ALSO COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT BUT MAJORITY
OF PRECIP TO OCCUR IN SOUTHERN CANADA. POPS TWEAKED FOR FRI BUT
PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST ZONES WITH SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME RETURN FLOW PRECIP EXPECTED ON SAT AND PRECIP IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES FOR SAT NIGHT WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA.

TEMPS TWEAKED A BIT...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER FOR HIGH
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

SUNDAY TO WEDNESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT WITH HIGHLY ANOMALOUS DEEP 500MB TROUGH PUSHING DOWN INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN THE BLYR NORTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH 850MB 25KT
WINDS BRINGING 4C TEMPS OVER THE REGION. WITH STRONG UPPER FORCING
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXPECTING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP MONDAY
WITH NEAR RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS THAT AFTN. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE  AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY
AND SLIDES EAST FOR WEDNESDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AS THIS UNUSUAL JULY PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2014

PATCHY FOG WAS AROUND THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING BUT APPEARS
TO BE LIFTED ALREADY. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH TODAY WITH CIGS AROUND 20 THOUSAND FT. WINDS WILL BE HIGHER
FOR TODAY AND FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...HOPPES






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